Jump to content
dydo

Solar News

Recommended Posts

GCL and Zhonghuan raising wafer prices on strong demand:
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190130/960376.shtml

Big question is if Longi will follow suit.  At current wafer prices Longi still makes a profit while GCL incurs humongous losses.  Zhonghuan (second largest mono wafer maker) is presumably about break-even.  Longi may very well decide to keep prices steady and forego higher profits in order to keep the heat on GCL and Zhonghuan.  Here's where you can monitor what Longi is doing:
 https://en.longi-silicon.com/index.php?m=content&c=index&a=lists&catid=299

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe.  But more likely it's just profit-taking from the huge run we've had over the past few weeks.

At least I hope it's just that....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/30/2019 at 2:42 PM, Klothilde said:

GCL and Zhonghuan raising wafer prices on strong demand:
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190130/960376.shtml

Big question is if Longi will follow suit.  At current wafer prices Longi still makes a profit while GCL incurs humongous losses.  Zhonghuan (second largest mono wafer maker) is presumably about break-even.  Longi may very well decide to keep prices steady and forego higher profits in order to keep the heat on GCL and Zhonghuan.  Here's where you can monitor what Longi is doing:
 https://en.longi-silicon.com/index.php?m=content&c=index&a=lists&catid=299

Apparently Longi not raising mono-wafer prices, you guys:
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190202/961212.shtml

Means they want to keep GCL making horrendous losses.  This is also horrible for anybody focusing on multi modules you guys.  Now they have to pay GCL more for the multi wafers but cannot sell the modules at a higher price because Longi is depressing the price for high-efficiency modules.  I'm not going no name no one here but you guys should know who focuses on multi.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great news everyone, AOC pushing for U.S. to be Carbon Neutral by 2030:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/07/aoc-just-updated-her-massive-green-new-deal--heres-whats-in-it.html?recirc=taboolainternal

This would bring unprecedent growth in Solar PV in the U.S. let's all hope the fat, greedy orangutan is replaced in 2020!

Edited by tupapa

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Klothilde said:

"China Domestic Demand Shows a Clear Slow Down..."
http://pvinsights.com/ 

 

That makes sense as grid parity is not in place in China. That also suggests why price declines are in store. PV insights is suggesting module prices have fallen. There are 2 good articles on Guangfu today.

 

The first covers current market analysis and utilization rates. They suggest that utilization rates are still far below the pre 531 announcement although they did up tick recently in China.  

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190213/962366.shtml

The overall utilization rate of production capacity in the Chinese market continued to rise, reaching 83% - but still not returning to the level before the "531 New Deal"

 

This second article is a good article on the details of costs that China needs to hit for grid parity. It will give you an idea that the prices will drop significantly over the next 2 years. They are suggesting an average cost to build of 3.25RMB or $0.49(USD) for Grid parity. Depending on regions some are lower costs and some are higher in cost. They are suggesting the current cost to build is ~4.2RMB. They are suggesting a 28% system cost price decline is in order to meet grid parity.


These suggest that the solar costs are going to have to further drop. Current costs of $0.63(USD) will fall to $0.49(USD). The current module cost I estimate at  $0.26. That  is 41% of the total cost. A 28% price drop on the module cost is $0.0728. This places China needing a target module cost of $0.18-$0.19 come 2020 and later. That is where China hits grid parity and solar PV demand will explode.

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190213/962352-2.shtml

Definition of Parity online
“The cost of PV system for I, II, and III resource areas requires 3.21, 3.37, and 3.28 yuan/W, respectively; the median of all regions, the threshold for national PV affordable Internet projects is 3.25 yuan/W.”

Analysis of the cost reduction of PV parity online
Based on the above parameters, the conclusions that can be calculated are: 1 The cost of the power station system is 4.2 yuan / W; 2 The internal rate of return of the project is 7.14%.

Core conclusion: According to this standard, the current national photovoltaic ground power station system cost still needs to drop by 28% compared with the median level of 3.25 yuan/W national parity online.
That is to say, the cost of photovoltaic power plant system will drop by 28% at the current level, and the country will implement large-scale (more than 50%) low-cost Internet access on the power generation side.
 

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/13/2019 at 6:58 AM, Klothilde said:

"China Domestic Demand Shows a Clear Slow Down..."
http://pvinsights.com/ 

 

Chinese city wants 700 MW of new solar within two years: The announcement from the city authorities comes in the wake of the central government’s call for local authorities, electricity companies and big lenders to remove roadblocks to what it designated ‘grid-parity’ PV projects, by which it meant installations which did not benefit from central subsidies but which could be encouraged by local incentives.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/02/14/chinese-city-wants-700-mw-of-new-solar-within-two-years/

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

China blocks new solar in 3 NW regions amid overcapacity fears
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-solarpower/china-blocks-new-solar-in-3-nw-regions-amid-overcapacity-fears-idUSKCN1Q404G

This is horrible.  These are 3 of the sunniest provinces in China where PV power is most competitive and most suitable for the new unsubsidized regime.  Check out the irradiance map, this takes away most of the sunny regions and leaves the grey and rainy regions where PV is way more expensive. http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/library/renewable-energy-resources/world/asia/solar-asia/solar-china.shtml

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not so horrible, although aggravating.  The basic problem is, China can build new solar projects faster than it can connect them to its grid.  Generally, that's a good problem to have.

The transmission issues will be solved--China has separate initiatives to address those.  In the meantime, this is just more proof that the trend is towards more solar, not less.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/12/2019 at 7:35 AM, Klothilde said:

Bearish solarzoom article putting 2019 CN installs at "just" 35GW.  Hope this doesn't burst anyone's bubble.
http://m.solarzoom.com/article-120979-1.html

 

New CN policy looks to be targeting 2019 installations greater than 2018. Seems to set targets of around 45GW.

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190219/963630.shtml

 

According to the most conservative estimate, the installed capacity of photovoltaics will reach more than 45 million kilowatts in 2019, which has exceeded 44.26 million kilowatts in 2018

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190219/963637.shtml

 

In 2019, the subsidized rated installed capacity will be calculated according to the current expected 3 billion subsidy scale (excluding poverty alleviation). The subsidy intensity of the power subsidy is 0.075 yuan/kWh, and the subsidy scale is about 35.9 GW. (When the power subsidy intensity is 0.05 yuan/kWh, the subsidy scale is about 53.8GW), and then consider 5GW photovoltaic poverty alleviation and 5GW unsubsidized projects, and deduct about 1GW of household occupancy index after 2018 531, 2019 The installed capacity of photovoltaics in the year may reach 45GW, exceeding the installed capacity of 44.3GW in 2018.

 

 

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Price Indexes largely flat this week you guys.  How can we spin this? 

Hey klothy honest question here, if you don't believe the outlook for the solar industry is positive why have you remained invested for this long?

Edited by tupapa

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, tupapa said:

Hey klothy honest question here, if you don't believe the outlook for the solar industry is positive why have you remained invested for this long?

Trade war profiteering?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, tupapa said:

Hey klothy honest question here, if you don't believe the outlook for the solar industry is positive why have you remained invested for this long?

Who says I don't believe the outlook is shiny?  Just because I warn against investing in some solar companies doesn't mean I don't believe in solar.  In fact I think I'm one of the fiercest believers in solar here.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is fascinating watching the decoupling between CSIQ and FSLR these days, CSIQ moving up like a rocket whereas FSLR just can't get it up, drowning down into the solar abyss. Is the market starting to price in the end of the trade war, lifting of solar tariffs and the realization of FSLRs noncompetitivess or are other factors at play?

We could see huge upswings oin CNsolars if a trade deal is announced. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In my opinion, CSIQ has had a greater string of positive announcements lately, including project wins and margin expansion. FSLR is still in execution of CIP phase and that hasn’t gone smoothly. 

If FSLR shows any acceleration of ramp up to Series 6, large project wins, margin expansion, etc. the share price trends could shift quickly.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also if CSIQ guides for a loss in Q1 then its share price could come down a little bit.  That could happen if module ASP drops significantly to 27 cents or so and if they have little revenue from projects.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, Usbstefan said:

In my opinion, CSIQ has had a greater string of positive announcements lately, including project wins and margin expansion. FSLR is still in execution of CIP phase and that hasn’t gone smoothly. 

If FSLR shows any acceleration of ramp up to Series 6, large project wins, margin expansion, etc. the share price trends could shift quickly.

 

What was interesting on FSLR was their full year margins came in ~20% below where they were forecasting originally for 2018. That is a significant miss in which there is little explanation why it was so much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, SCSolar said:

What was interesting on FSLR was their full year margins came in ~20% below where they were forecasting originally for 2018. That is a significant miss in which there is little explanation why it was so much.

Secondly, we are lowering our gross margin guidance by 50 basis points to a revised range of 19.5% to 20.5% as a result of higher expected ramp costs. Offsetting the decrease in gross margin is a $15 million reduction to start-up costs within our operating expense guidance. The increase in ramp costs and offsetting decrease in start-up costs are result of the earlier-than planned started production at our second Vietnam factory.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Donate

    Please donate to support this community. We appreciate all donations!

    Donate Sidebar by DevFuse
  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      32
    • Total Posts
      91,903
  • Who's Online (See full list)

    There are no registered users currently online



×
×
  • Create New...