[SCSolar 0]

9 hours ago, sac_solar said:

JKS is said to make over $4 EPS in 2017 as well as this year, so there is profit out there for some,  As Solar becomes more main stream line due to not requiring subsidies, perhaps they will be given higher multiples ? presently a multiple of down to the 4 range is a bit ridiculous.  just a multiple expansion  could lift the PPS

Those earnings estimates are not reflective of the current and future market. Looking at Q2, Jinko made $26M gross from projects and netted $42M as a company. Without power revenues earnings would be far less. This year the power revenues gross  profit will be close to $95M on revenues of $160M with 60% gross margins. That places $1 in EPS from Jinkos  module business this year. Most of that module profit is gone based on their Q3 guidance.

Jinko  indicated that the ASP is going to drop in the low teens. That drop is from a price of $0.55 and 18% margins in Q2. In Q3 the guidance based on Jinko's comments  is $0.48 with 16% margins(midrange). This is $34-$35M lower gross profit that earnings is based on. Q2 had $42M net income. If the Q3 guidance happened in Q2, then after the reduced gross from the modules they would have had  $7.5M net income in Q2. That would not be considered good at a stock price of $20.

Heading into the winter, Jinko will have more curtailment and lower power generation numbers than summertime quarters. You can expect 30% less gross profit than Q2 from projects. This is $8M lower gross. You are now looking at Jinko being near break even in Q4.

If past is prologue, do not expect a sudden uptick in ASP of any significance through 2017.  One might expect a lower ASP in Q4 for those with major focus in the U.S.

 

Yet another winter is hitting solars. It will be a  milder winter than the last time and a shorter recovery time.

Edited August 27 by SCSolar

[odyd 1,315]

It's China vs China for solar modules market share in India (From Bridge to India)

Chinese module suppliers increased their share of the Indian solar PV market, which added a total capacity of 3.6 GW in the past 12 months (refer), to 75%, up from around 50% in the previous 12 months. In contrast, the share of Chinese suppliers in the US market is believed to be less than 30%. Other international and domestic suppliers increased their overall sales volume in India but saw their market share halve from 24% to 12% and from 26% to 13% respectively.

Existing Chinese majors have maintained their market share but the new Chinese companies have taken a significant share away from Indian and other international suppliers

Module supply glut in China may lead to even more Chinese suppliers focussing on the Indian market with aggressive pricing

It is a buyer’s market for Indian project developers despite major increase in demand

8 out of top 10 module suppliers in the Indian market are now from China as against just 4 out of top 10 in the previous year. The remaining 2 names include First Solar (USA) and Waaree (India). While early movers Trina Solar and Canadian Solar have managed to maintain their market share and retain top positions, the big change is significant pick up in market share by other Chinese suppliers including JA Solar, GCL Poly, Hanwha, BYD, Talesun and Risen. These companies had a very marginal presence in the market previously but now have a combined market share of 32%. 

Shipments for major non-Chinese suppliers such as First Solar, Tata Power Solar and Vikram Solar grew in volumes but respective market shares have come down drastically.

Going forward, we expect the Chinese module companies to dominate the market notwithstanding the Indian government’s push for Make in India and the imminent announcement of a new manufacturing policy for the sector (refer). A mix of factors including local supply glut and falling prices (refer) means that the Chinese companies will compete hard for a growing share in the Indian market. The possibility of other mid-sized Chinese suppliers entering the market with aggressive pricing also cannot be ruled out.
Indian suppliers are expected to maintain a market share of 10-12%, broadly proportional to capacity set aside for Domestic Content Requirement (DCR). However, we expect a churn in the domestic supplier market shares once Adani’s 1.2 GW manufacturing facility becomes operational.

The big beneficiary of falling prices and increasing competition between module suppliers is obviously the Indian solar market. Project developers are in a sweet spot as they are in a buyer’s market despite increasing Indian demand. They will be relieved with falling prices, which will serve to grow the appetite of local investors. 

[odyd 1,315]

GET and Gintech report 46% drop in revenue in August,

Numbers are about 50% down from last year, statement below:

Gintech Energy Corporation announced its unaudited monthly revenue for August 2016.

Net sales in August 2016 were NT$604 million, a decrease of 28.7% month-over-month from NT$847 million in July 2016, and a decrease of 57.9% year-over-year from NT$1,435 million in August 2015.

In order to manage account receivable risks, we strategically delayed certain shipments without guaranteed payments. As a result, our shipment volumes continued to decline in the past month. In addition, we made necessary production adjustments in our Taiwan facility to control inventory level while Gintech (Thailand) remained at full capacity.

To mitigate the pricing pressure, we are taking aggressive cost reduction measures, especially on raw material procurement including wafers and pastes. We see material prices come off sharply and partially alleviate our cost pressure. We are also taking this opportunity to introduce new technology which enables lower-cost and higher-efficiency products.

[explo 632]

Price pressure is more clearly moving upstream now: http://pvinsights.com/index.php

[odyd 1,315]

The discussion about glut is somewhat the same as last time. Different business formats, however, with all that electricity revenue for Chinese, solar plants for sale.

I think the three CSIQ, JKS, and FSLR are still best to survive, they have financial flexibility, FSLR, of course, being a money tree. It is a question of when to buy, average and at what prices.

We have started this discussion elsewhere, but in general terms, the solar news is a good place to talk about industry glut, but also to share with more people on pricing objectives.

These are mine, FSLR $30 as a result of 2017 guidance with $2.5 per share EPS for this year. FSLR in my view has more struggle on a path to success now but has a good plan. 50% up 2018

JKS, not a lot of price movement to be justified at $2.75 to $3 for 2017 $18 is pretty reflective. However, move up may only have 25 to 30%

CSIQ, at $1.52 I can see stock test $10 and inevitably forced by short sellers, since they can, below it. I think IPO in Japan if it happened, would be a boost. JKS would get one from HK IPO, etc.

[explo 632]

Regarding JKS I'm still waiting to see if they'll be able to redeem CDB's interest in the Power business. The Power unit includes the project development too. I don't like they want to spin off (most likely on non-US exchanges) all but the manufacturing business and I don't like that they are less "free" than FSLR and CISQ to decide their path. They made good manufacturing profit in 16H1, but now comes the tough quarters to that wafer equipment heavy guy.

 

[explo 632]

On 2016-09-07 at 7:11 PM, explo said:

Price pressure is more clearly moving upstream now: http://pvinsights.com/index.php

Worth noting also that cell price fell below 20 cents (!) for the first time and wafers are now at 12.5 cents (polysilicon included). Is King Coal paying attention without sweating? Let's shake it out and conquer.

[SolarRoof 67]

US solar installs set records:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/12/big-increase-for-us-solar-in-2016-report.html

[odyd 1,315]

Good summary, should be considered, I was too optimistic in my article if this comes true.

http://www.pv-tech.org/editors-blog/overcapacity-how-low-can-module-prices-go

[odyd 1,315]

Solar World a victim once more

http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/solarworld-to-lay-off-500-temporary-workers-in-germany_100026200/#axzz4Kt1Hczyq

[explo 632]

4 hours ago, odyd said:

Good summary, should be considered, I was too optimistic in my article if this comes true.

http://www.pv-tech.org/editors-blog/overcapacity-how-low-can-module-prices-go

Good opportunity to buy some panels. This is the time to leverage a BS to ship internally. I think JA might have been prudent to not rush internal allocation of capacity during the boom like Trina did to quickly reach critical mass on generation capacity.

[odyd 1,315]

I think we have a yieldco explosion ahead of us. I know I am selling the idea to the thread, but Blackrock is in a buying mode, so everyone is getting on the wagon

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-21/blackrock-said-to-show-interest-in-bidding-for-sunedison-unit?cmpid=yhoo.headline

[thejaq 37]

13 hours ago, odyd said:

I think we have a yieldco explosion ahead of us. I know I am selling the idea to the thread, but Blackrock is in a buying mode, so everyone is getting on the wagon

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-21/blackrock-said-to-show-interest-in-bidding-for-sunedison-unit?cmpid=yhoo.headline

I agree, well if explosion means back to fair value per business model. I am having difficulty trying to decide when to jump from the SUNE yco's to the new yCO's (BEP, NYLD, ???) If one thing can be certain, I will screw it up.

[odyd 1,315]

I was wondering what happened to him, but no longer I need to

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2016/09/22/canadian-solar-trina-axiom-went-bargain-hunting-found-only-grim-tidings/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

[solarpete 39]

And right on cue, CSIQ rises from the dead.

And shorting Trina, with the buyout supposed to complete in the next quarter?  What is he thinking??  He obviously doesn't expect the buyout to go through.  But based on what??

[SolarRoof 67]

"Healthier Yieldcos Starting to Differentiate Themselves"

http://www.rechargenews.com/solar/1444974/analyst-sees-healthier-yieldcos-starting-to-differentiate-themselves

[explo 632]

The crash in wafer prices came to a halt. Prior crash in cell prices have slowed lately, but halted now too. I hope it isn't just the China golden week effect, but that we are seeing an actual stabilization in component prices.

http://pvinsights.com/

 

[SolarRoof 67]

Headline this morning.  I don't have membership to link entire article but apparently explains weakness today:

http://www.rechargenews.com/wind/1445677/chinese-developers-shares-sink-amid-fit-cut-reports

[Mike Dedmonton 0]

Maybe the overcapacity problem won't be as large as everyone anticipates.

 

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/solar-cell-and-module-capacity-expansions-absent-in-china-in-3q-2016

[solarpete 39]

Good news indeed.  About time the manufacturers got a clue.

Nice day across the board in solar land.