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Income and Balance-Explo's Thread

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Guest larryvand

Any ideas why that wasn't reflected on Pvinsights and EnergyTrend yet? I know it was not a full week but the spike started on the 16th so it was at least 5 days (16th-20th). Next Wed the 27% we will definitely have a full week of these prices.

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Timing could be the main reason, but I think it is also because they poll different markets (many look at markets in Taiwan for some reason). Normally poly price would be quite global, but now it will be pulled up inside China and pushed down outside China based on how the tariff change the landscape of supply cost and volume. There will be a lot of low cost poly available outside China, not so much inside China. The global poly demand (ingot furnaces) are mainly inside China.This tariff has impact on the whole industry. This causes a fatal disconnect between where cheap poly is needed and where it is available. The US cell tariff was nothing in comparison. Honestly I don't like this huge chock the global PV market, but SOL owning poly capacity in China is a major risk reduction for that specific . Not owning cell capacity in China was nice, but this is more critical.

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Guest Klothilde

Hmm... I'm not sure yet how much can be told from this curve. If you look at the interval 11/23 to 12/23 the curve shows a drop of almost 14% in price, whereas the pvinsights spot price for T1 poly only dropped around 3% during that time. Unfortunately I don't have the T2 pvinsights poly prices to see how well this curve correlates to pvinsight T2. Can somebody look it up?

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It could be that this price is incl. VAT tax. With out the 17% VAT the price is around $18.

Still the 10% spike seen on the China trades was not seen on latest pvinsights. Regarding VAT I made the same assumption, but I think Eystein concluded that VAT might in fact not be included.

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Hmm... I'm not sure yet how much can be told from this curve. If you look at the interval 11/23 to 12/23 the curve shows a drop of almost 14% in price, whereas the pvinsights spot price for T1 poly only dropped around 3% during that time. Unfortunately I don't have the T2 pvinsights poly prices to see how well this curve correlates to pvinsight T2. Can somebody look it up?

I saw that discrepancy too. Have not done the pvinsights T2 price consistency check yet.

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That's is DRAMATICALLY higher than average spot last week on pvinsights... Of course I'm sure pvinsights polls several countries. There has been no mention on the wires of this spike in Chinese poly just some daily spot price links which several members on this board have provided.... Next week could get interesting

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Guest eysteinh

There is a big disconnect between pvinsight and 100ppi.com I agree. It will be interesting to see if this is the case next week also. Ofcourse these are trade prices offered but do not say if the transactions have been done. Perhaps here the difference lies? Pvinsight will catch up the trend once some transaction on these prices offered goes through.

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Yes if the disconnect remains after next weeks price reports then we can rule out that it was due to timing.

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I am posting solarzoom report hopefully tomorrow price is up to 140RMB but that includes 17% VAT, trading volumes are limited

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Guest eysteinh

Exellent. And good to know the 100ppi.com was usefull demonstrating trade prices then later shown in real transactions.

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Guest eysteinh

Basically we are 1 week ahead of the average information curve. Just remember sunsir / 100ppi.com reports trade numbers as far as I can tell from the chinese translation. It is not sure that trade numbers will be converted into real transactions.

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Guest larryvand

Still, $16.80 average is nothing to write home about. We need to get 4% rise every week for the next 4 weeks for the average poly price to get at $20 which IMO is the minimum by the end of March. BTW, what is interesting EnergyTrend only has poly up 0.44% but the average is $17 which is higher than PVinsights. Also multi-wafers are up almost 2% in EnergyTrend to average 87c while PVinsights has them at 85c or up only 0.24%. Have no idea why the differences between the 2. Also PVInsights has 2nd Grade poly higher than 1st grade poly on average. So why would anyone purchase 6N-8N poly at an average higher price when they can purchase 9N+ cheaper? http://pv.energytrend.com/ http://pvinsights.com/

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Guest eysteinh

Because 6-8N quality is not the only measurement of how well the polysilicon will perform in the module. N classicifation only tells whats the minimum amount of certain substances like copper boron etc. For example REC sells granular FBR that has many advantages in mono ingot production, basically the form factor allows recharge and overcharge and also around 40% more in the crucible. It gives many economical advantages, and since it also has low N in the substances that matter most it has also high efficiency. Basically what I am saying is that the N classification is not the only measurement of polysilicon quality.

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