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ReneSola (SOL)

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    How do you know all this?

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    Guys im so happy you are making money and the sector is finaly starting to gain value again - it is so crazy undervalued its not even funny. Let the profit times come ahead. Hoping my dear REC will follow :) It has been 3 hard years for me personaly.

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    Ok. Are you in the PV industry?

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    Guys im so happy you are making money and the sector is finaly starting to gain value again - it is so crazy undervalued its not even funny. Let the profit times come ahead. Hoping my dear REC will follow :) It has been 3 hard years for me personaly.

    Your REC is going to move big in about 12 hours. I want to see all the good people here that have been to hell and back owning solars make money.
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    I have been struggling to understand what GM SOL can do in Q3, Q4 etc, but it's become so opaque since the Q1 CC.

    They still talk about COGS of 55c going down to 54c in the transcript, yet the real COGS for Q2 is probably nearer to 60c which suggests the 54c figure doesn't contain the outsourcing costs and is just an underlying figure for in-house produced modules?

    Has anyone gained any further clarity since the CC on this contradiction in the COGS reporting - so as to enable an estimate for H2? (I know what the outsourcing roughly adds to COGS).

    Below is my dialogue in vain with Renesola IR that claims the announced COGS is the total COGS including outsourcing costs:-

    Hi,

    I am a UK private investor.

    I had been

    looking forward with much optimism to 2013 and gross margin growing perhaps as high as 25% by the end of the year and a net profit in Q2 but the Q1 Results has clearly changed the whole picture, so that it appears the full year 2013 will not be profitable..

    Could you answer a couple of questions please:-

    1. How should I model 2013 COGS if I was to include all of the outsourcing costs? Around 60c - 62c for Q2 to Q4? I know the in-house COGS is 54 to 55c for the year but I need to know the 'real' COGS to estimate the net profit possible.

    2. Are the ASP projections for H2 2013 possibly conservative on the low side at the moment? Presumably the ASP in Europe could trend up to 80c - 90c if tariffs are formally introduced?

    3. Has the ASP been slightly reduced below normal in the last 2 quarters because Renesola has been trying to build market share?

    Dear xxxxxx,

    Thanks for your email. For your three questions:

    1) Use maybe 0.55-0.60 for Q2, but for the 2nd half of the year – it’s too hard to say – maybe keep it in that range for now – but it will depending on the final European anti-dumping duties.

    2) We would be very happy to see ASPs that high – but we definitely need to be conservative and careful – so $0.70 is probably more reasonable, especially as we are still in overcapacity in the industry

    3) Actually just the opposite – our ASPs have risen as our brand, technology, and high efficiency products have gotten greater recognition. So while Q-on-Q ASPs may appear to be getting lower, M-on-M is in fact going a bit higher.

    ReneSola Investors Relations

    Hi,

    Thank you for your prompt reply - if I may follow up:-

    I would like to invest further in Renesola but the Q1 report made my understanding of COGS very cloudy. I had been working on 55c dropping 54c and staying around that for 2013 - which makes H2 margins look

    healthy given the ASP guidance.

    However, when the COGS is reported in each quarterly release is it a total figure that includes all of the extra outsourcing costs or is it a figure that only illustrates the underlying in-house module cost for

    the company? If it is the latter, then clearly I need to model 54c plus some extras, which will of course vary according to region and tariffs etc.

    Thanks for your assistance,

    Posted ImageDear xxxxx,

    The COGS is the total figure and you are right- it's complicated and getting more complicated- thanks to the tariffs. So will be Poly if the Chinese anti-dumping ruling finalize.

    Sincerely,

    ReneSola Investor Relations

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    Well done for following up on this. I was going to contact IR with the same question. What is the total average cost of each module produced? It should be easy to answer. I had based my investment decisions on the 54-55c target and feel misinformed. The last answer from SOL is very poor and vague.

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    Yes I've been struggling too. Even with 7 cent cell tolling in Taiwan I can't see how blended costs in Q1 increased that much. I'm frustrated they didn't give the cogs breakdown.

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    Thanks for some good posts here! Explo, The Q1, most of their poly plant is idle. So obviously the depreciation charge coupled with poly sourcing costs edged up the Si cost. This may change in Q3...as they ramp up production to 80% of the capacity. 40M$ net cash inflow in Q2 should be good for their operations. As the poly plant comes online, coupled with EU decisions, we may see more clarity in Q2 ER. JMHO.

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