busraker
Solar Investor-
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About busraker
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新手上路
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Yes, indeed, hence me taking a breather from JKS until I can see what their spin off plans are. I think their borrowing did take a big jump, i.e. 30%+ in the quarter, and maybe with a change of rates on the whole pile it may have been largely that, but I don't know!.
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$23m interest expense in Q3 they said was due to loans for solar projects, which I took to mean the extra money they borrowed for the big year end push to met the 600MW to 800MW projects installed forecast. Separately, I don't actually understand how JKS works out their ADS basic and diluted eps given the share count published in the Q3 release(?)
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They have connected 343MW in the first three quarters of the year, so not a scintillating pace, but they were suggesting quite significant Q4 connections back in Q3 as well, so I still model 280MW Power connections for Q4. Time will tell on that score! I have sold today to let the dust settle as I'm not keen on the damage that the financing is doing to the profitability until a separation takes place - errr....and it's November!!. Not imagining it flying up and away from me in the near term.
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The Forex loss was offset by an almost identical gain on the Convertible senior notes. So, the $15m profit shortfall against my own expectations was around $5m on slightly lower GM and higher Opex but then a big hit of an extra $10m of interest expenses (up from $12.8m to $23m in one quarter) due to financing for the power business. If that's the immediate future without a spin off then I'm not so keen! Come on TSL !!
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It would be a great shame to lose the forum. One way forward, presumably, is to work out the cost increase if only 30 members are paying and see if they will all pay it. $17.50 per month(?) with small discounts for paying for 3,6 or 12 etc(?). Just my thoughts.
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My issue with CSIQ here is whether the sale of 51% of one of their Recurrent Projects was a strategy change that will follow through for the rest of this year until yieldco conditions change or just a one off to give a little help to a not great Q3 eps. I'm wondering if it's the latter in which case, personally, I may hold off from buying right now.
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Sorry Bodhi, have been off the boards a few days. I am not hedging CSIQ / JKS now, I just hadn't updated my portfolio. I shorted CSIQ from $37 to $25 whilst holding JKS long. I thought $10 gap wasn't justified at the time given the eps hit the yieldco was causing CSIQ. $2 or so gap either way between JKS and CSIQ seems about right to me which is why I closed the short / hedge. Should have held the CSIQ short for another $10 after that, but held the JKS long for more losses instead!. Now need to decide if it is safe to start some further long positions or not. Would like some TSL and JKS and am now considering some CSIQ given the deal announced yesterday and the positive effect more of those deals would have on eps etc.
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I am hoping / expecting we may have another lower day from here so waiting to add more TSL and JKS. In fact, have just sold my JKS temporarily at 1795 as a trade to get in lower. Missed out on the crazy lows of yesterday's start to trading due to not knowing what was going to happen next after that! Have had a short on Amazon from $505 a few days ago to hedge my solars (still open). It hadn't come off its highs very much whilst many other stocks were already well down, so I figured it was one of those strong stocks that only falls late in the day (i.e. I still had time to get in for a short at a decent high point). It made yesterday a lot more relaxing as losses and gains roughly balanced each other all day despite the wild swings.
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Does anyone have a feel for the volume of projects that TSL intend to sell for the remained of this year (if any)?. I have TSL at 53c and 60c for Q3 and Q4 (way above Yahoo estimates by the way) but without any project sales at all in H2 which would obviously boost the eps as the 50MW sale did in Q2 by perhaps 6c or so.
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I've updated my JKS earnings spreadsheet (attached). H2 is clearly a big jump up in eps. I'm showing $1.2 and $1.5 even on GAAP for Q3 and Q4. The lifted guidance for module shipments helps and they claim they will have opex back between 10% to 12% but I have stuck at the very upper part of that range. Electricity Revenues are becoming a serious part of the business, which I very much like as they are predictable, growing, monetizing the downstream projects and recurring / cumulative - 2016 could bring in $240m Revenues from that alone at 60% G.P. perhaps which, in my eyes, justifies the share price alone. Does anyone know what the Net Income margin is on this element? Right, it's bed time here in the UK :-) JKS H2 2105 estimate.pdf
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I wasn't hugely impressed by the JKS Results I have to be honest. They met my expectations, though I had 52c GAAP and they missed that. The Opex is up to over 13% of Revenues and the Redemption to non-controlling interests is taking power out of the eps line. There's plenty of good things too and H2 looks good of course, but I'm seeing TSL as the no.1 now for potential 9 month share price gains - which is quite a turn around because I hated their results a year ago, lagging everyone on metrics, buffering their Revenues with low margin China sales just to keep up appearances and I refused to look at them for a couple of years before that, so it shows how things can change. I'll try to substantiate my TSL view when I get time. Just my thoughts :-)
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CSIQ short closed. Only long positions now, which is a shame. The slow, but regular, accumulation of a nice hedge was a comfortable place. Back to the wild portfolio gyrations of solar land again. Def a trading stance for me prior to Q2 Results.
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JASO record low RSI of 16
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Decided to add new positions in TSL at 995 and JASO at 698. Still got CSIQ short / JKS long position open from 2 months ago, which has gone well, tho JKS finally getting beaten up on the wrong side of that hedge...:-)
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The bigger gainers were the weaker solars - those who, in sympathy with JASO, might appear very undervalued and could get a lift from buyout. The difference is that JASO is genuinely undervalued, the others (YGE, SOL, HSOL) unlikely to be! That's my view of it today.