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explo

TTM Export Deliveries

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JASO growth curve looks quite exponential. Trend continues with CN4 plus SOL growing faster than the rest (for SOL exports don't reflect global shipments as the produce panels globally through outsourcing).

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Attachments in first post of this thread have been updated for August CEDR. CN4 domination in TTM export growth is expanding.

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Explo, I am curious if you could create the US and Japan module delivery graphs using CEDR.

I am curious what we can see there.

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Explo, I am curious if you could create the US and Japan module delivery graphs using CEDR.

I am curious what we can see there.

I'll check if I have something in old sheets prepared for plug and plot. The index could be extreme for those with little presence in those markets a year ago, so I might need to skip that view (at least for some names).

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It took some work to collect 2 years of individual market data, but I have Japan ready now. The market breakdown data starts two months later than the total exports data, i.e. from September 2012 instead of July 2012, but as we have August CEDR in now that makes it an even 2 years of data with market breakdown.

I've attached the TTM Japan Module Deliveries. Note that only 4 companies had reached a delivery mass to Japan during the period from September 2012 to August 2013. It thus only makes sense to look at those 4 companies plus the Solar9 total for an index starting in August 2013. If we fast forward to March 2014 most companies had reached a history of 12 months of significant Japan shipments, so that's were I start the index that includes all Solar9. There is still reason to be careful as some companies, e.g. Jinko and CSUN never reached any level of significance in Japan. Jinko just waking up there looks like it is growing full steam there, but it is still too small volumes shipped to conclude that they are grabbing big market shares there.

Back to the original four - CSIQ, HSOL, JA and STP. Of these STP had negative growth the past year and only JA grew faster past year than the Solar9 group in Japan and that only first now after an impressive acceleration in August. CISQ and HSOL still have dominating market shares there together with JA, but they are all three chased by Trina and Yingli who entered later but are growing faster now.

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Thanks Explo.

What is interesting here, either Canadian has flatlined its presence due to more modules being available from others or shifted its priority to something else. In my opinion their volume is going down as they are focusing on plants not third party. Of course, that is my interpretation. 

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It was a bit easier to make a second market trench after having the system in place for the first one. Attached are the same plots for USA deliveries. In the case of USA CSUN is too insignificant to date to make it into any index. Jinko had a too insignificant start in USA to make it into the first index, but instead replaces a losing STP in the second one.

There are some interesting dynamics going on here related to the tariff case.

STP who got the highest 2012 tariff (2014 tariff is irrelevant as it is higher and more supply-chain constraining) of named companies had basically already left the market in 2H12.

SOL who was not named in 2012 case and thus got 250% 2012 tariff and in 2014 case got bundled up with Jinko to get higher tariff in that case left the market in terms of exports from China already in April this year as risk of import cost impacts for ReneSola panels after TW loophole closure became unfeasible to bear.

YGE who dominated the market a year ago seems to focus a lot less on it now and is in severe decline there while still shipping signifcant volumes and holding on to third position. YGE got preferential treatment in the EU case, while in the USA case it was Trina who got it. Maybe YGE needed to shift customer focus to China, EU and Japan.

HSOL never got any growth momentum in the market and seems not much affected by the tariffs.

The whole group accelerated growth until May this year after which the growth flatlined.

Three companies however continued the accelerated growth from May to now - TSL, CSIQ and JKS. In TSL case they have the edge of lower tariff rate. JKS have the edge of lower production cost, which gives slightly lower tariff in dollar amount and a competitive total cost. CSIQ have projects under construction there as well as ability to convert cells (subject to US tariffs and thus cheap) to modules at one of the lowest costs in the industry which could motivate them to continue the US market focus.

JA grew well early this year in line with TSL and CSIQ, but from much lower level so with much less significance in absolute volumes. They however flatlined their US focus at the same time as the group flatline, YGE and SOL broke down and TSL, CSIQ and JKS started to dominate the growth in the market.

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Thanks Explo.

What is interesting here, either Canadian has flatlined its presence due to more modules being available from others or shifted its priority to something else. In my opinion their volume is going down as they are focusing on plants not third party. Of course, that is my interpretation. 

 

I made a new post on US market. See my point about incentive to focus on USA market and their growth there instead for CSIQ. It's only Trina that manages to grow quickly in both Japan and US market right now. CSIQ and JKS are growing in US while JA and Yingli are growing in Japan.

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I had China readily available too. So here it is. Note that this is estimated as reported quarterly shipments dirstributed monthly minus CEDR. Only 4 names are tracked. Only one index needed here, starting June 2013. The following five names were eliminated:

 

  • STP - no quarterly reports
  • CSUN and HSOL - too small China presence to estimate properly. Overseas factory (CSUN) and parent tolling (HSOL) distorts.
  • SOL - Foreign OEM fabs distort estimate.
  • CSIQ - Foreign factory and quite small presence distorts estimate.

 

Things to note is that the market grew a lot end of last year, while being in limbo so far this year. Yet again Trina is a growth dominator. YGE and JKS hang in there, while JA seem to lose interest in China. The picture could change once the market wakes up again the final four months of this year, but I think it is clear Trina will dominate growth this year too.

 

Trina as we've seen in guidance is the market leader now and with this market breakdown it is clear that growth leadership in 3 major markets is behind that global growth.

 

Only EU remains to be analyzed of the big 4 PV markets. It should only be slightly more difficult to collect.

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