[uchsteve 115]

SunPower Q4 Outlook Misses, Though Q3 Earnings Skyrocket

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sunpower-q4-outlook-misses-though-223200255.html

[Guest Rommel]

Analysts are making a huge mistake if they are projecting SPWR's Q4 forecast with CN solars. 

 

At last ER, Sun Power was $28 and rose to over $34 by Oct 22. Today it closed about $32.

 

Other facts:

 

Market cap: $5.2B

EPS: -$1.49 (adjust $.44 for the current quarter)

 

Planning for an increase of 25% cell capacity by 2015. 

 

I think, $5.2B = sum of all 8 CN Solars. (excluding debt)

[odyd 1,340]

I do not want to be beat up but if CSIQ does lower guidance for Q4, what reaction this will have? 

[Guest JulyWebb]

For SPWR's market cap of 3.86 Billion you could have market caps from YGE, TSL, JKS, HSOL, JASO & SOL combined totaling 3.66 Billion and still be below market cap of SPWR.  These 6 CN Solars total market cap do not make 1 US Solar's (SPWR) market cap.

So yes under the circumstance they are priced for perfection even though they had great numbers for Q3 and since they delivered puney guidance for Q4 they should sell off.

The reason is China is where demand is currently at besides Japan, SPWR isn't in China. 

 

In terms of market cap and in terms of demand CN Solars have much further room to rise and I guess we can expect puney guidance for the 4'th Q from FSLR.  CN Solar's will be extremely busy in Q4 and it doesn't stop there.  

[Guest JulyWebb]

For SPWR's market cap of 3.86 Billion you could have market caps from YGE, TSL, JKS, HSOL, JASO & SOL combined totaling 3.66 Billion and still be below market cap of SPWR.  These 6 CN Solars total market cap do not make 1 US Solar's (SPWR) market cap.

So yes under the circumstance they are priced for perfection even though they had great numbers for Q3 and since they delivered puney guidance for Q4 they should sell off.

The reason is China is where demand is currently at besides Japan, SPWR isn't in China. 

 

In terms of market cap and in terms of demand CN Solars have much further room to rise and I guess we can expect puney guidance for the 4'th Q from FSLR.  CN Solar's will be extremely busy in Q4 and it doesn't stop there.  

 

And the Commercial Banks will be open to lend as CN Solars will be involved in developing projects.

 

Am I missing something here?

[Guest Lepv123]

I do not want to be beat up but if CSIQ does lower guidance for Q4, what reaction this will have? 

 

If that is the case, and we also have a market correction, then it may come down to $20 level. However, by next earnings, $25+. imho

[Guest eysteinh]

ASP in solarzoom for q4 suggest anything but slowdown in China. 

 

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=2&hl=en&prev=_dd&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http://www.solarzoom.com/portal.php%3Fmod%3Dlist%26catid%3D50&usg=ALkJrhg5jrWtEVKD2OmuppEWtgddE5u2-Q

[Scsnospam 117]

I do not want to be beat up but if CSIQ does lower guidance for Q4, what reaction this will have? 

Odyd, what are you basing this question on? Their guidance is for 485MW, I think. What has changed in the last few weeks that would make them sell less? This number comes from Q1, when they guided for the whole year. They could see 485MW for Q4 as early as May this year. So in a year where every thing has been booming, why would reduce guidance suddenly.

Second, they announced the plant sales on the last day of this last quarter. If they were seeing any slow down at all for Q4, they could easily have kept one or more in the kitty to be recognized in Q4. They did not. The fact they shoved it into Q3 is itself a tell that they are confident about meeting previous guidance.

I do value your input, and if there is anything I am missing, I would certainly like to know.

[Guest sleepyhead]

Odyd, what are you basing this question on? Their guidance is for 485MW, I think. What has changed in the last few weeks that would make them sell less? This number comes from Q1, when they guided for the whole year. They could see 485MW for Q4 as early as May this year. So in a year where every thing has been booming, why would reduce guidance suddenly.

Second, they announced the plant sales on the last day of this last quarter. If they were seeing any slow down at all for Q4, they could easily have kept one or more in the kitty to be recognized in Q4. They did not. The fact they shoved it into Q3 is itself a tell that they are confident about meeting previous guidance.

I do value your input, and if there is anything I am missing, I would certainly like to know.

 

I think he is referring to the two power plant sales in Q3 vs. one sale in Q4, at least that is what I got from his posts.

 

I agree with you though, that if they deliver high end of guidance in Q3 that is about 450MW's plus 17MW's of power plants. Power plants add about $92m in revenue and $23m in gross profit.

 

In Q4 they will have one power plant for roughly $55m and $14m gross profit. So they only have to make up $9m in gross profit, which should be a piece of cake for Canadian:

 

485MW in Q4 is an additional 35MW for $22m rev and $3m gross profit. But from the huge boom in China it looks and some manufacturers delivering here instead of exporting, it looks like Canadian can easily grab a piece of China's share or sell in the US and Japan since others are pulling out there panels from US. Canadian still has 600MW of module capacity, so that is another potential 115MW for $80m in rev and $8m in profit.

 

But if that doesn't materialize then there is a strong possibility that they raise ASP by at least $0.01 and maybe lower cost by the same amount. An extra $0.02 on 500MW's is an extra $10m in profit.

 

There are many opportunities for Canadian to outperform Q3 in Q4. They might do an extra $50m - $100m in sales in Q4 if demand really is as strong as the reports are saying it is.

 

I think that if they have $0.60 EPS this quarter and guide towards $0.50 (I know they don't guide for EPS, but you can kind of deduct it) then that will still be great for the stock.

 

I am not worried about Canadian too much. I think they will do ok.

[Guest eysteinh]

Transcript for those who want: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1790402-sunpower-management-discusses-q3-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo