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dydo

SunPower (SPWR)

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"He had no knowledge regarding the industry and little about SunPower. He was looking to be hired as a Director of international procurement."  This sounds a bit strange. 

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2 hours ago, stolypin said:

"He had no knowledge regarding the industry and little about SunPower. He was looking to be hired as a Director of international procurement."  This sounds a bit strange. 

He was a veteran of the semiconductor industry dealing with wafer manufacturing for a large international multi billion dollar(revenue) company familiar with working in a fast changing price erosion industry. The skill set would have transfered nicely. He did not have direct knowledge of the solar industry.

 

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11 hours ago, dydo said:

word bankruptcy enters SunPower's official language

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/sunpower-to-sell-more-assets-to-avoid-bankruptcy-in-2019

It has become apparent to all that SPWR is on the final 12-18 month stretch. If they can't become profitable with P-Series and NGT series panles it lights out. Would be a sad day to see First Solar as the last US solar company. The Chinese.. what can you do.. they know how to manufacture better the most..

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1 hour ago, stolypin said:

 

It has become apparent to all that SPWR is on the final 12-18 month stretch. If they can't become profitable with P-Series and NGT series panles it lights out. Would be a sad day to see First Solar as the last US solar company. The Chinese.. what can you do.. they know how to manufacture better the most..

I just went to see my last article on SPWR on SA.  It was dated November 9, 2017. I thought by now the equity would be negative there is still $35M. I see by end of the year be zero or negative. Said hi to Larry. The stock hit high $5s and I promised to say hi when it happens. 

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23 hours ago, dydo said:

I just went to see my last article on SPWR on SA.  It was dated November 9, 2017. I thought by now the equity would be negative there is still $35M. I see by end of the year be zero or negative. Said hi to Larry. The stock hit high $5s and I promised to say hi when it happens. 

LOL very good call. Should have shorted the stock and your research would have made you alot of money. 

In the same spirit I want to also make prediction. 

FirstSolar will declare bankruptcy before SunPower.  (

 

Here is the reasoning:

(All credit due to SolarCraig at  https://seekingalpha.com/user/12588271/comments)

The reason why the customer has to wait 2 years is because they cannot manufacture the product at requested watt levels. A 400 watt module with a +- 10% power differential is ridiculously poor standard. You need to understand that. Even product sold 10 years ago had better numbers then this. You have to understand solar engineering and construction. If you have 18 modules in a string of modules and one of those modules produces power at 365 watts that means the entire string of 18 modules will only produce power at 365 watts. That is why their locked in contracts specify higher power tolerances and also explains the two year delay on "locked in contracts". You need to deliver the product. Come 2019 Q2 if they cannot deliver this stock will be zero.

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17 hours ago, stolypin said:

LOL very good call. Should have shorted the stock and your research would have made you alot of money. 

In the same spirit I want to also make prediction. 

FirstSolar will declare bankruptcy before SunPower.  (

 

Here is the reasoning:

(All credit due to SolarCraig at  https://seekingalpha.com/user/12588271/comments)

The reason why the customer has to wait 2 years is because they cannot manufacture the product at requested watt levels. A 400 watt module with a +- 10% power differential is ridiculously poor standard. You need to understand that. Even product sold 10 years ago had better numbers then this. You have to understand solar engineering and construction. If you have 18 modules in a string of modules and one of those modules produces power at 365 watts that means the entire string of 18 modules will only produce power at 365 watts. That is why their locked in contracts specify higher power tolerances and also explains the two year delay on "locked in contracts". You need to deliver the product. Come 2019 Q2 if they cannot deliver this stock will be zero.

I have to doubt this account of the situation. I will start with a side note. My research made me aware of the traps of financial weakness and have avoided losses in solar. I do not short stocks. I made money and lost money on biotech investments, but my research has moved to an area I knew nothing 6 months ago. I am very passionate about it and I read about it daily. I am convinced about the science, but as usual people and their actions dictate day to day outcome. Patience is needed. I doubt FSLR will go under before SPWR. SPWR is a financial wreck. FSLR is not. FSLR has the best balance sheet in the industry. I think that Jinko has a better chance to become Yingli which is actual bankruptcy zombie before First Solar would get in any type of financial trouble.  However, FSLR is deeply overvalued and will continue to see pressure from the market.

The agony of SPWR can be prolonged by the variety of financial treatments. However, this condition is terminal and has been for 3 years in development.  I hope you can find a chance to rescue your investment in some way. All the best                      

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I am looking at the article written by Ener. I did not expect SPWR to have so many shareholders. Attacks on the guy are incredible. No surprise Larry is fighting to prove sanity of his choices, by sounding ever more crazy. One post was pretty cool. It brought now dead and buried SunEdison. I recall getting hit by some Danish fund manager trying to tell me how to read balance sheets in my article about SunEdison. Then he took gloves off and the posts were about me not the article. SPWR lost money for longer than SUNE did. Nothing good will come from it. I guess those who are swinging fists are too busy to see it. 

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1 hour ago, dydo said:

I am looking at the article written by Ener. I did not expect SPWR to have so many shareholders. Attacks on the guy are incredible. No surprise Larry is fighting to prove sanity of his choices, by sounding ever more crazy. One post was pretty cool. It brought now dead and buried SunEdison. I recall getting hit by some Danish fund manager trying to tell me how to read balance sheets in my article about SunEdison. Then he took gloves off and the posts were about me not the article. SPWR lost money for longer than SUNE did. Nothing good will come from it. I guess those who are swinging fists are too busy to see it. 

SPWR is an US solar manufacturer. People like that fact. It has the same style following as Tesla. Small US company taking on the giants and their only weapon is their better technology. Most hold shares that are way underwater so no more reason to panic now than there was 2 years ago. People see P-Series and NGT series are a shinning light for SPWR. California mandate, tariff exemption, new tech and Total backing are all arguably major catalysts.  Strong balance sheets are valuable but better tech in solar space is the true driver of stock price. Company that falls behind on efficiency and technology dies much faster than company that has issues with cash flow. In the long run there will be a handful of companies that survive. Longi, GCL, Hanwha, Panasonic, LG, Total are probably the companies that will be left in the long run. 

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1 hour ago, stolypin said:

SPWR is an US solar manufacturer. People like that fact. It has the same style following as Tesla. Small US company taking on the giants and their only weapon is their better technology. Most hold shares that are way underwater so no more reason to panic now than there was 2 years ago. People see P-Series and NGT series are a shinning light for SPWR. California mandate, tariff exemption, new tech and Total backing are all arguably major catalysts.  Strong balance sheets are valuable but better tech in solar space is the true driver of stock price. Company that falls behind on efficiency and technology dies much faster than company that has issues with cash flow. In the long run there will be a handful of companies that survive. Longi, GCL, Hanwha, Panasonic, LG, Total are probably the companies that will be left in the long run. 

Canadian Solar was called a technological midget among giants. Still here. Technology which costs more to make than what it sells for is the killer of giants. 

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Moreover in 2017 SPWR said they will make money in 2018. They have lost what almost $1B in 2018? How will they make money in 2019? They will say they will this comes easy for them. Saying that is. 

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32 minutes ago, dydo said:

Moreover in 2017 SPWR said they will make money in 2018. They have lost what almost $1B in 2018? How will they make money in 2019? They will say they will this comes easy for them. Saying that is. 

According to Werner, should be taken with grain of salt since hes CEO, SPWR was hit with tariffs and china 531 policy and that is the reason why they didn't make money in 2018. They were hit the hardest out of all with tariffs because higher ASP * 30% tariff means higher tariff cash cost than other players. (As a SPWR long, this is a reasonable explanation to me) 

Their GAAP loss in 2018 is 85% impairment of factory and lease portfolio. They are not profitable on Non-GAAP numbers but its not 1B loss as GAAP numbers show. (As a SPWR long, this is a reasonable explanation to me) 

In 2019 they will be exempt from Tariff, have shingled P-Series from JV in China and have NGT cells that supposedly match PERC cell production costs while maintaining 25% efficiency. Those panels should be 23% efficient and cost similar to PERC  modules. They don't disclose any numbers so no idea how truthful any of this is. (Not sure I believe this as SPWR long, they have been saying this for over 5 qs now)

In 2019 the market will transition to higher efficiency panels and those that sell dirt cheap and 17% panels will be in disadvantage at least in non power plant projects. 

When most are selling below cash costs SPWR guidance for Q4 is not that bad. Bad in case of SPWR is ~ -15 margins lol

Edited by stolypin

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