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Guest JulyWebb

SolarCity (SCTY)

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The only thing I can get out of the release is 67% growth in 2014 (low end guidance).  $6B evaluation is certainly built on a future results here, not my type of the investment, but I care for volume guidance, which is pretty good.

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Guest JulyWebb

Earning delay...  will report the financial result on 3/3/14. same day as JKS

 

Thanks :)

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The only thing I can get out of the release is 67% growth in 2014 (low end guidance).  $6B evaluation is certainly built on a future results here, not my type of the investment, but I care for volume guidance, which is pretty good.

Agree. Q4 revenues rose 87% to .... $47M. Wow, really? Q4 EPS expectations ,,,(.55). That's "earnings". Just under $80 stock with that valuation and "earnings". Who knows, they may not even be around to realize all that baked in "grows". Why are we even spending time on it here?   

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Guest spiritcraft

Agree. Q4 revenues rose 87% to .... $47M. Wow, really? Q4 EPS expectations ,,,(.55). That's "earnings". Just under $80 stock with that valuation and "earnings". Who knows, they may not even be around to realize all that baked in "grows". Why are we even spending time on it here?   

Instead of bashing a "rich" valuation, wish a higher valuation for your stocks (that are indeed making money now).  Personally, I hope there comes even a brief time of irrationality and SCTY going to the freaking moon is good for the winners.  They will be around but may end up with a large forward PE.  Having them make our winners look cheap is fine with me.

 

As per TD  (the only place I can see 2015 estimates):  SCTY has a forward (2015) PE of 80 on the highest estimate for that year which is $0.95.   According to TD, no one has them anywhere close to a profit in 2014 and consensus for 2015 is indeed a loss @ ($0.90)

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Guest spiritcraft

What was that anyway?  A pre -announcement one week ahead of earnings?  Had they not set a date prior? 

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Guest Norse

If SCTY is a partner with TSLA on the giga factory both companies plus the chinese ones will benefit a lot.

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Guest Norse

Patrick Jobin - Credit Suisse

And then last question, on the cost roadmap. You’ve exceeded your targets 30% this year. How should we think about that 5.5% reduction per year on a go forward basis? And related to that, what are your thoughts around the trade disputes and how that could impact your business if a tariff is imposed on Taiwanese sales, and how would you mitigate that?

Peter Rive

The answer to those two questions, they’re actually interrelated, the trade case, needless to say, is not going to be helpful at all, but is very much a short term factor. So we don’t expect that it will dramatically affect our costs in the long term. And then there also strategies that we’re contemplating that would give us the ability to protect us from the [unintelligible] trade case. But with the uncertainty surrounding the trade case, it is exactly for that reason that it is difficult for us at this time to provide a cost forecast that we’re confident in. So sorry for that, but we will be providing a revised cost forecast to you all during the next earnings call.

Lyndon Rive

And overall, our expectation for the year is we don’t know exactly the impact of the trade case, but in either case, we are confident our costs will reduce, we just don’t want to forecast how much just yet, until we know the impact.

SCTY on cost reduction even with a trade war.

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Guest spiritcraft


SCTY on cost reduction even with a trade war.
Interesting to think about this.  BOS costs decline every day here in the US.  They have a list of states that will be in the next wave.  There is nowhere currently that they can get modules from if some of those States open up.  A few of those States could be big markets but without modules, what then?   What if the US market just goes parabolic, can you make a module here in mass quantities and make a decent profit while remaining competitive?   Something needs to give somewhere.

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Guest JulyWebb

I know some aren't interested in SCTY but several of the CN Solars sell modules to them. I thought we might hear some comments made towards the impending US Tariff Case. I believe they had said before it was hard for them to give guidance not knowing how that might turn out. They may be questioned on it in the Conference Call if anybody wants to listen.

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Guest Norse

Im listening. They said they would comment on this later when they were asked earlier.

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Guest JulyWebb

Im listening. They said they would comment on this later when they were asked earlier.

 

Thanks Norse, I hope you can give us an update. :)

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Guest Norse

They are using other suppliers than Chinese. Also, I think they just said the new delay(they have a new CC on Monday) is because its hard for them to finish them before they know the outcome. I am not sure if I got that correctly. We will see that on the transceipt.

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Guest singular

Am I the only one here that thinks that SCTY is a bloated pig. They are still losing a lot of money and posted a whopping 47 million in revenue for the quarter. Yet their market cap is over 6 Billion. Am I missing something (other than the fact that they are backed my Musk)?

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Guest Norse

They are going to change the way of how people get electricity with cheap storage grid. I got in at $20 and i am long. Elon says that TSLA is valued high but he also said SCTY was undervalued and that most people don't get it. I like to be on his team.

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Guest eysteinh

Singular I do not prefer heavy growth stocks like these either unless I am 100% sure they are going to make that growth already priced into the stock.

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Guest JulyWebb

They are going to change the way of how people get electricity with cheap storage grid. I got in at $20 and i am long. Elon says that TSLA is valued high but he also said SCTY was undervalued and that most people don't get it. I like to be on his team.

 

I listened to 3/4 of the CC. They have smart management. For me the price is to rich but may go even higher, you made a Good Entry.

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Guest Norse

JulyWebb i am glad you did. There are so many people bashing SCTY without knowing anything about the company. Team Musk are extreme in how they cut expences, and they are very good for the industry.

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Am I the only one here that thinks that SCTY is a bloated pig.

 

No.

 


They are still losing a lot of money and posted a whopping 47 million in revenue for the quarter.

 

Yes.

 


Am I missing something (other than the fact that they are backed my Musk)?

 

No.

 

Seriously at first glance I don't get it. They might have something, but what? Musk? A business model? What is their real moat to defend the ridiculous valuation of their revenue?

 

I don't mean to offend Norse and other who like it, though I think some like the stock for short-term trading rather than long-term investment.

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Guest spiritcraft


No.

Seriously at first glance I don't get it. They might have something, but what? Musk? A business model? What is their real moat to defend the ridiculous valuation of their revenue?

I don't mean to offend Norse and other who like it, though I think some like the stock for short-term trading rather than long-term investment.

 

PV is going to change the world as significantly as the PC or the automobile did.  I say let all the winners have a high valuation and more demand for shares than there is supply.    SCTY still does not have a positive EPS estimate for 2015 but say they did make $0.75, that would be a PE of 100.  And if that were fine, I would settle for a PE of 50 for CSIQ and other leaders.  Just saying that in the new PV world, we don't yet know where valuations will be for "perceived leaders".  I think much has to do with Musk but also that they are doing this in the USA where people will begin to see their products in stores, in commercials and start to see rooftop solar being installed for the first time in their lives.  (Here outside of Chicago, I have yet to see a single installation of PV in my lifetime, ever...)  That said, I get where you are coming from as well.

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Guest Norse

No.

Yes.

No.

Seriously at first glance I don't get it. They might have something, but what? Musk? A business model? What is their real moat to defend the ridiculous valuation of their revenue?

I don't mean to offend Norse and other who like it, though I think some like the stock for short-term trading rather than long-term investment.

I am not offended at all and SCTY is not nearly my biggest holding. I just don't see the point in getting upset when these stocks are flying high. It will benefit the chinese as well. I bet many people here have not researched SCTY or RGSE at all. Musk is going the by far the biggest man in our time of history. His ability to cut costs at SpaceX is pretty significant, and the same is happening with Tesla. SCTY and TSLA will change the world with EVs, Solar and battery storage. When SCTY can get cheap ways for storage Solar will explode and we will all benefit from it. Then there is no reason for using anything else for electricity.

Obviously TSLA, SCTY and CSIQ are my favorites, but because of the valuations I mainly hold other stocks atm.

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Guest roller

Thanks Norse, I will not buy any large holding in scty either at current or higher valuation. I just want to be a part of it for a while. I did not time it good (and that is the only thing that offends me), but buys small amounts at several occasions. When even regular people here in Sweden starts talking about Elon Musk, then I know his brand is starting to get quite strong. And maybe then it is to late to buy? :)

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