odyd

Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

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odyd...good job again on the CSIQ article. I've attached the excel spreadsheet that I had generated. Any comments on assumptions, etc would be greatly appreciated from everyone. The sheet also includes some ballpark EPS "what-ifs" based on various $GP/MW scenarios on the profitability of the rest of their non-utility scale business.

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Thank you, great looking spreadsheet. Non utility scale 5 cents profit could be achievable with below 0.60 and the 0.65 ASP, The heavy COGS adjustments today for all of those companies, granting they will be able to pay debts, are saving them taxes. Even with my current dissatisfaction about Trina, I think they will be fine. Some weird things on Suntech. Wuxi was going to buy bonds for the company etc, they moved the Shi out as he wanted the company to go bankrupt?

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Thanks, I just got done re-reading the CC. I had mistaken their "up to 130MW" comment about US projects as revenue recognition, but now I realize it was "in construction". So I would average that row out a couple more quarters into Q2-2014. I think this is a more likely scenario...

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Was just looking at Skypower's website, and under the career tab they posted an open position in September for a project manager. Not that that's newsworthy, but the company background summary was pretty interesting;

Background:

Boasting one of the most impressive pipelines of solar projects in North America, SkyPower Global is one of the world's largest developers and owners of solar energy projects. SkyPower's portfolio includes 250 megawatts (MW) of awarded power purchase contracts, an additional 67 megawatts (MW) of installed capacity operating today and a pipeline total of more than 2.0 gigawatts (GW) at various stages of development worldwide. SkyPower sources, develops, finances, owns and operates solar energy projects from the initial discovery stages through to commercial operation. We have offices in 22 countries supporting our development efforts in over 70 countries around the world. SkyPower is committed to helping communities meet their increasing demands for greater investment in clean, non-emitting solar energy. For more information about SkyPower, please visit www.skypower.com.

They had stated they had over a 2 GW pipeline in the previous CSIQ press releases, which is impressive in itself, but what I didn't know is that they have offices in 22 countries supporting efforts in 70 counties! I wonder if this is part of the CSIQ/Skypower global joint venture build-out. Since the US company CIM Group owns Skypower, there is a lot of financial muscle behind this partnership.

I expect we'll be hearing a lot more about this next year, but it certainly bodes well for CSIQ's future expanding global project presence and potential pipelines.

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CSIQ just updated their IR Presentation. Not much has changed...updated their cost slide, some project slides, financial slides, etc. One noteworthy revision though, was the Canadian factory's module capacity is now listed at 330MW...in the last one (Aug), it was listed at 220MW...that's a 50% capacity increase (business must be good up there). http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=196781&p=irol-presentations

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On October 15th, CSIQ announced their exclusive partnership with PetersenDean.

“PetersenDean Roofing and Solar is the largest privately held roofing and solar contractor in the United States. Headquartered in Fremont, California, and operating in 15 regional offices across the United States, PetersenDean offers something few other companies can: the ability to guarantee all products and installations above the roofline."

On October 24th, PetersenDean announced their new Power Saver Series, with some of the following comments;

“PetersenDean Roofing and Solar, Inc. announced today that it can engineer, procure and construct its Power Saver Series line of roof top solar power systems without the need for the Investment Tax Credit to provide affordability for consumers and profitability for PetersenDean on each and every system.”

“Petersen, also exclaimed, “I mean, why would anyone lease asolar power system that cost five grand for twenty years and never own it? Our Power Saver Series are power house systems that are all under fifteen grand and the consumer gets to keep the thirty percent tax credit for now. You talk about a no-brainer.””

““My goal was to be free of the ITC in 2015, so we are way out ahead of schedule and with continued advances in technology; we see a very bright future for solar power and PetersenDean,” concluded Petersen.

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20121024005581/en/PetersenDean-Roofing-Solar-Announces-Design-Build-Roof

So I went and checked out their site for the PowerSaver Series, and I have to agree that for anyone considering solar in the south-west USA, it’s a no-brainer;

http://www.powersaverseries.com/

They basically have 3 size kits; 1.5kW, 3.okW, and 4.5kW. Without any govt. incentives, these systems look like their payback in most areas would be under 9 years ($3.70/W). With the 30% ITC the payback is less than 6-years ($2.60/W). There’s a little video also that states the IRR is 18% on these systems!

And if this is installed with a new or replacement roof from PetersenDean, they’ll knock another $1000 off (and if you act right now, they have a holiday special going on that’s worth another $500 off...).

I would think that the Residential and small Commercial rooftop markets will probably see the largest growth in the coming years. This market doesn’t have the land purchase and development costs of solar farms, and are more efficient

when located at the point of use. And in developing nations especially, the future power structure could shift from AC to

low and high voltage DC only systems, allowing for further cost reductions and greater system efficiencies, further propelling the expansion of rooftop solar systems. CSIQ is involved in one of these experimental installations in China.

The future certainly looks bright for solar ...and CSIQ...

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