Solar News

[explo 617]

On 26 december 2015 at 11:52 AM, explo said:

Found the official document (2 days ahead of publication??). Result look different than from what we saw before where Yingli was big winner, Suntech big loser and Trina losing its advantage. Here Trina get advantage back and Yingli gets punished. JA got was review now and Jinko rescinded of CN4.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2015-32630.pdf

From final 2012 AD rate to preliminary 2015 AD rate:

Suntech 21.19% -> 7.27%

Trina 7.78% -> 4.53%

Yingli 15.42% -> 11.47%

Canadian 15.42% -> 7.27%

JA 15.42% -> 7.27%

Jinko 15.42% -> 9.67%

The AS rate is not published yet, but if that remains unchanged at around 20.94% the total tariff rate goes down from 31% to 28% for CSIQ and up from 24% to 25% for Trina. JA rescinded AS review last time and its AS rate remains at 15.24% and thus total tariff goes down from 31% to 23%, but they will be reviewed this time. This means tariff cost for Trina might be around 8 cents and 10 cents for CSIQ and JA. For JKS the total tariff stays at 31%.

 

 

AS preliminary review result: http://www.pv-magazine.com/fileadmin/Solar_cells_2012_CVD_review_prelim_ruling_pub_2015.pdf

19.62% for Trina, JA and Suntech. Rest rescinded and keep 20.94%. 

 

[Jetmoney 23]

2 hours ago, explo said:

AS preliminary review result: http://www.pv-magazine.com/fileadmin/Solar_cells_2012_CVD_review_prelim_ruling_pub_2015.pdf

19.62% for Trina, JA and Suntech. Rest rescinded and keep 20.94%. 

 

I wonder if this is the cause of JASO drop and the strength in TSL.  Is the weakness in JASO warranted and is a good reason to buy?  Thanks.

[explo 617]

30 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

I wonder if this is the cause of JASO drop and the strength in TSL.  Is the weakness in JASO warranted and is a good reason to buy?  Thanks.

JASO has a lower AS duty than the new preliminary one. But for total AS and AD duties JASO is second biggest winner after Trina in this preliminary review result. Jinko and Yingli are losers.

[Jetmoney 23]

That was what I thought and could not find the reason for the weakness in JASO and the strength in TSL.  So, I bought some more JASO and some TERP this morning.  I hope I did not catch the falling knifes as I have tendency to do that.  Thank you much for your explanation.

[explo 617]

Pressure might be due to spot price showing bigger gain in multi wafers than in multi cells for the first time, since cell surge started.

 

[odyd 1,293]

Look at swings at fslr? TERP pays dividend, not seeing this to change.

[explo 617]

Yes pressure is a bit here and there. A weak market is probably hurting stocks that were recently strong. Typical realignment.

 

[explo 617]

TransAlta Renewables Inc. Declares 5% Increase in Dividend and Announces the Closing of its Investment in Three Canadian Projects Owned by TransAlta Corporation

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/transalta-renewables-inc-declares-5-222326072.html

[explo 617]

Yuan getting cheaper means lower CN panel production costs: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-stocks-trading-halted-rout-023219822.html

 

[explo 617]

GCL looking to raise $748 million

http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/gcl-looking-to-raise-748-million-_100022700/#axzz3wbZ1mUI7

[odyd 1,293]

Why is this idiot even open mouth on a day like that? Not getting a single concept in the solar

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/07/these-3-companies-could-slash-their-dividends-in-2.aspx?source=eogyholnk0000001&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

[odyd 1,293]

Atlantica Yield instead of Abengoa, cut the ties with the dead,

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/abengoa-yield-changes-corporate-brand-212202943.html

[Scsnospam 117]

Why do you think terp etc won't drop dividend odyd? If oil cos can do it...

[odyd 1,293]

I say that? LOL

It is simple their dividend is tied to earnings, unlike oil companies losing rate per barrel TERP has fixed PPAs.

 

[dk1 5]

Actually looking at what is happening in MLPs, yieldcos could also cut dividend to fund their acquisitions as raising capital through issuing equity at these prices might be worse. And they do need lots of it if they want to buy the assets they committed to their parent companies.

[explo 617]

13 minutes ago, dk1 said:

Actually looking at what is happening in MLPs, yieldcos could also cut dividend to fund their acquisitions as raising capital through issuing equity at these prices might be worse. And they do need lots of it if they want to buy the assets they committed to their parent companies.

Are they committed to buy assets from parents? That seems risky as I would prefer if asset acquisitions was based on first securing access to low cost funding of the acquisitions. If they can't sell equity the acquisition, dividend growth and dilution rate are all expected to go down. Possibly the dividends are skipped to promote growth. CAFD becomes CAFA cash flow available for acquisition. 

[explo 617]

Silver powder supply issues. Hopefully silver paste and in the end cell supply won't be hit too much.

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20160111PD205.html

 

[explo 617]

Supply-chain saga continues: http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20160112PD206.html

Panel makers can't handle the low cell to module price spread so they are cutting back. Hopefully there's room to get a raised module price response in order to push some of the cell and wafer shortage cost downstream. Right now panel makers take the big hit.

[Pop2mollys 412]

16 minutes ago, explo said:

Supply-chain saga continues: http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20160112PD206.html

Panel makers can't handle the low cell to module price spread so they are cutting back. Hopefully there's room to get a raised module price response in order to push some of the cell and wafer shortage cost downstream. Right now panel makers take the big hit.

Interesting that the Top Module Producers instead of raising prices just refuse to buy cells.  This has to be a first. Its all because developers in emerging countries won't budge on pricing of projects.  Just halting buying cells doesn't seems like the best solution. 

[explo 617]

34 minutes ago, Pop2mollys said:

Interesting that the Top Module Producers instead of raising prices just refuse to buy cells.  This has to be a first. Its all because developers in emerging countries won't budge on pricing of projects.  Just halting buying cells doesn't seems like the best solution. 

 

It seems they can't sell if they raise prices since there is no panel shortage so they need to cut panel production volume (to reduce expensive cell outsourcing part) and wait for panel prices to rise as their supply fall or for cell prices to fall as their demand falls (both effects should be achieved). This should help remedy a supply-chain problem by moving a concentrated pain in the panel processing up and down the stream.

There's debate about the supply-chain effects, but I'm quite convinced that CSIQ is transitioning from a jackpot period to a pain period in terms of supply-chain situation and their exposure to the supply-chain (very panel processing focused exposure). These are short-term effects though and should not affect picking for long-term investors. Long-term CSIQ is moving to a bit more balanced exposure to avoid these wild swings (kind of like I'm doing with my portfolio, LOL), but they will still be more exposed to supply-chain volatilities than say Jinko and I think we'll see that in the stability of their GM trends.

Their stock tumbles every time they have an investor conference lately. It's of course wild speculation but I believe they have to give a picture of challenges that lies ahead and investors have little sympathy for a great company facing a challenging supply-chain situation because it is structured to benefit for the opposite and past situation rather than the ongoing situation and it takes time to restructure. For me CSIQ is a long-term option now, not a short-term option.

 

[Pop2mollys 412]

CSIQ will be able to hide to a certain degree margin compression from cell prices in Q4 with several project sales.  The question for them then becomes Q1 with possibly no project sales.  If tier 1's are tO the point where they are refusing to buy cells at certain prices it's obvious the margins are being compressed to the point where it hurts a bit.  I guess the question is how much.  they really need to get that new cell capacity online.  The stock has been crushed the past several weeks, so possibly this is built in to a certain degree.  Makes me wonder how Q1 guidance might look for those who rely on buying majority of cells.

 

 

[Pop2mollys 412]

Updated spot prices...

 

http://wap.pvinsights.com

 

http://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html

[Pop2mollys 412]

7 minutes ago, Pop2mollys said:

Updated spot prices...

http://wap.pvinsights.com

 

 

Pv energy trend shows continues cell/wafer strength but almost larger drop in module pricing...

http://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html

[explo 617]

3 hours ago, Pop2mollys said:

CSIQ will be able to hide to a certain degree margin compression from cell prices in Q4 with several project sales.  The question for them then becomes Q1 with possibly no project sales.  If tier 1's are tO the point where they are refusing to buy cells at certain prices it's obvious the margins are being compressed to the point where it hurts a bit.  I guess the question is how much.  they really need to get that new cell capacity online.  The stock has been crushed the past several weeks, so possibly this is built in to a certain degree.  Makes me wonder how Q1 guidance might look for those who rely on buying majority of cells.

 

 

Yes Q4 is no problem, but it's the past a people expect a big Q4. My worry short-term for CSIQ is their guidance for 2016H1 and how the market will treat it based on what it expected. The PPS has already adjusted quite a bit, but even at parity with JKS I think JKS is less risk on the short-term operational supply-chain situation (the financial risk is greater with JKS though, but they've been successful in raising debt, so they seem to have been well backed in their leveraged approach).

As seen on pvinsights the pain for cell buyers (panel producers) the past 6 months have now the last two weeks moved to wafer buyers (cell producers) and here JKS is one of the most insulated and it benefits with a lot poly purchases (buying poly and making wafer is much more beneficial now than buying wafers). Conversely CSIQ has most wafer shortage pain and least poly glut joy.

 

[Pop2mollys 412]

This clown never stops...

 

*Axiom's Gordon Johnson on Report of Appaloosa Suing SunEdison: Notes Previous Filings from TerraForm Power Warned SunEdison Could Harm Terraform Holders

1/13/16, 10:55 AM