Solar News

[Pop2mollys 412]

China makers hike PV module prices

 

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20151224PD201.html 

 

Talk about out some great news, and they expect prices to pop atleast throughout first half 2016 in China. The other good news is this article came out after market closed Thursday.

[explo 617]

10 hours ago, Pop2mollys said:

China makers hike PV module prices

 

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20151224PD201.html 

 

Talk about out some great news, and they expect prices to pop atleast throughout first half 2016 in China. The other good news is this article came out after market closed Thursday.

Yes I saw that too a couple of days ago. It's great that China panel prices rise in RMB to stop the drop in USD price due to RMB depreciation. It will put some upward pressure on other markets to avoid panel shortage.

 

[Pop2mollys 412]

Did anyone see the note Johnson put out on Christmas Eve?  What a joke.  He made a huge case that no ITC extension would cripple solar industry and now he say ITC extension once again will cripple sector.  

http://m.benzinga.com/article/6073130?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F 

to me extension right before 2016 was best case scenario.. You still capture a lot of the rush while then maintaining strong demand in 2017 instead of crash.

[odyd 1,293]

I am waiting to see a note on supply bottlenecks, I am surprised this is not out there.

[explo 617]

25 minutes ago, odyd said:

I am waiting to see a note on supply bottlenecks, I am surprised this is not out there.

Isn't it too late for a supply-chain bottleneck analysis? The prices started to move more than 6 months ago. Normally prices move to correct supply/demand imbalances caused by bottlenecks or gluts appearing in the supply-chain after major changes on the demand or supply side. The volcano has already erupted so let's not speculate on whether it will (we see the lava), but instead do the damage analysis.

 

[disdaniel 54]

Gordo is being as assinine and US centric with his "insights" as always.  The ITC extension has changed my investment stance for 2016 from being a net seller to being a net buyer for the year. 

Added a little (emphasis on little) JKS,TERP and SUNE this morning.

Short interest in (many) solar names is up substantially from where it was mid-year (or even this time last year).  I suspect the shorts realize they will eventually have to buy those shares back...

[explo 617]

1 hour ago, Pop2mollys said:

Did anyone see the note Johnson put out on Christmas Eve?  What a joke.  He made a huge case that no ITC extension would cripple solar industry and now he say ITC extension once again will cripple sector.  

http://m.benzinga.com/article/6073130?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F 

to me extension right before 2016 was best case scenario.. You still capture a lot of the rush while then maintaining strong demand in 2017 instead of crash.

>>He believes that the ITC extension would adversely impact solar demand next year, since there is no longer any need to “rush to install” in the US

Well, duh!

>>which is “bad for everyone in the industry.”

Que? Since when is one year's boom bust result more important than half a decade's solid result?

I like his usual "the grass is green in solar, which is bad for those in the industry, because it will attract competition". Can't the guy come up with some innovative industry bashing arguments?

 

[odyd 1,293]

25 minutes ago, odyd said: I am waiting to see a note on supply bottlenecks, I am surprised this is not out there.

Isn't it too late for a supply-chain bottleneck analysis? The prices started to move more than 6 months ago. Normally prices move to correct supply/demand imbalances caused by bottlenecks or gluts appearing in the supply-chain after major changes on the demand or supply side. The volcano has already erupted so let's not speculate on whether it will (we see the lava), but instead do the damage analysis.

 

I do not subscribe to the impact view, as shown in another thread, in multiple ways. The post speaks of Gordon, so not sure why you pick this threat yourself, but I suspect the obvious to you has not become obvious to him. He specializes to see lava everywhere, so not seeing the eruption, maybe even for him considered storm in glass of water.

[explo 617]

51 minutes ago, odyd said:

I do not subscribe to the impact view, as shown in another thread, in multiple ways. The post speaks of Gordon, so not sure why you pick this threat yourself, but I suspect the obvious to you has not become obvious to him. He specializes to see lava everywhere, so not seeing the eruption, maybe even for him considered storm in glass of water.

I'm not seeing any threat. I'm just already seeing a reaction in market prices, so I find it not so interesting to speculate on whether there is an action going on that will cause a reaction in market prices, since the reaction has already happened. I find it more interesting to acknowledge the reaction fact and analyze what impact it will have on different positions. For the more speculative mind one could speculate about continued market price moves and their causes and what potential impacts they would have. I'm not there yet, I simply for now find it prudent to at least account for the major moves that already happened.

 

 

[Pop2mollys 412]

The only time Gordo ever become bullish on a solar in the last 5 years is earlier this year on SUNE when it was trading @ $35.00.  He said buy buy buy. You can't try to reason with crazy though that's probably why market doesn't react to his loud screaming anymore.

[explo 617]

LONGi adding 2 GW cell capacity. Wow, these guys are getting massive, 8 GW module capacity.

http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/despatch-supplies-firing-furnaces-for-major-capacity-expansion-at-longi-silicon_100022584/#axzz3vjK4qqjf

 

[Pop2mollys 412]

"China will stop approving new coal mines for the next three years and continue to trim production capacity as the world’s biggest energy consumer struggles to shift away from the fuel as it grapples with pollution."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-30/china-to-suspend-new-coal-mine-approvals-amid-pollution-fight 

 

[explo 617]

On 2015-12-23 at 10:40 AM, explo said:

Trend with margin pressure on panels and poly and margin expansion on cells and wafers continues: http://pvinsights.com/

On the mono side cells turned green a month ago while the pressure on mono wafer continues. Can't believe they are approaching price parity to multi soon.

 

Trend continues: http://pvinsights.com/

 

[explo 617]

China sets slightly lower solar target for 2016

Read more: http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/china-sets-slightly-lower-solar-target-for-2016_100022589/#ixzz3vnTZVSUc

15 GW

[explo 617]

On 26 december 2015 at 11:52 AM, explo said:

Found the official document (2 days ahead of publication??). Result look different than from what we saw before where Yingli was big winner, Suntech big loser and Trina losing its advantage. Here Trina get advantage back and Yingli gets punished. JA got was review now and Jinko rescinded of CN4.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2015-32630.pdf

From final 2012 AD rate to preliminary 2015 AD rate:

Suntech 21.19% -> 7.27%

Trina 7.78% -> 4.53%

Yingli 15.42% -> 11.47%

Canadian 15.42% -> 7.27%

JA 15.42% -> 7.27%

Jinko 15.42% -> 9.67%

The AS rate is not published yet, but if that remains unchanged at around 20.94% the total tariff rate goes down from 31% to 28% for CSIQ and up from 24% to 25% for Trina. JA rescinded AS review last time and its AS rate remains at 15.24% and thus total tariff goes down from 31% to 23%, but they will be reviewed this time. This means tariff cost for Trina might be around 8 cents and 10 cents for CSIQ and JA. For JKS the total tariff stays at 31%.

 

 

Table by EnergyTrend: http://pv.energytrend.com/research/Trina_May_Gain_Big_from_Second_Review_of_2012_AD_CVD_Case.html

 

[odyd 1,293]

Digitimes showing now mono wafer increases

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20151231PD205.html

[explo 617]

6 hours ago, odyd said:

Digitimes showing now mono wafer increases

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20151231PD205.html

Yes, there was too good of a play for JASO and similar to output mono cells at rising prices and inputting mono wafers at falling prices.

[Pop2mollys 412]

Oil spiking higher, I'm guessing on this news...

 

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/iran-saudi-diplomatic-ties_5689819ee4b0b958f65bf365?ekmd9529=

[Paybak66 41]

Oil spiking higher, I'm guessing on this news...

 

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/iran-saudi-diplomatic-ties_5689819ee4b0b958f65bf365?ekmd9529=

Yes, probably.

SWN was up over 12 percent Friday on rising nat gas prices. This may push SP onward.

[explo 617]

China Halts Stock Trading After 7% Rout Triggers Circuit Breaker

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-04/chinese-stocks-in-hong-kong-extend-annual-slump-as-yuan-declines

 

[explo 617]

Looks like GCL is increasing its in-house consumption of produced wafers, causing tight supply so it can increase its quotes.

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20160104PD201.html

 

[slowtrader 1]

Good reason to be down a bit:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-solar-announces-market-offering-140500303.html

[Pop2mollys 412]

3 minutes ago, slowtrader said:

Good reason to be down a bit:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-solar-announces-market-offering-140500303.html

Presents a great buying opportunity.  Money raised used to fund margin rich projects. 

[Pop2mollys 412]

Solar Set For Huge 2016? Oppenheimer Is Buying

 

http://m.benzinga.com/article/6112805?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F

 

[explo 617]

On 23 december 2015 at 10:40 AM, explo said:

Trend with margin pressure on panels and poly and margin expansion on cells and wafers continues: http://pvinsights.com/

On the mono side cells turned green a month ago while the pressure on mono wafer continues. Can't believe they are approaching price parity to multi soon.

 

Slight trend change. Compression in poly and module continues. Multi wafer margin expansion accelerates. Multi cell margin expansion halts. Mono cell margin expansion continues.

http://pvinsights.com/index.php

Cell capacity expansion should alleviate the shortage situation: http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20160106PD201.html