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  1. Today
  2. Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch maintained a Buy rating on Canadian Solar Inc (CSIQ) today and set a price target of $22. Rusch observed:
  3. Yesterday
  4. Sounds like a great advice - buy high (sell low?). So there was no reason to buy CSIQ in low teen$ for most of last year, but all the reasons to buy it in low (almost mid) $20s earlier this week? I think I need to go back to school as I'm missing all the logic behind it.
  5. Interesting, I'm planning to trim PEGI holdings by 50% if/when mid $23s will arrive and will sell out if it goes over $25. While dividend is safe (I think 5 "no"s to dividend cut mean "safe"), they still will need money to grow and secondary will certainly take place then.
  6. A lot of events in this industry, but not much capital appreciation. Interest rates steadied or perhaps on a drop side, could change it still over 7% dividend and steadily recovering to 80% pay out. NEP looks good too .
  7. PEGI has been one of my better buys - steady climb and paying great divi
  8. I have reentered the land of renewables with investment in Pattern.
  9. Ok so what did we learn today? That 15% gross margin is no longer enough in PV manufacturing?
  10. It is all fun and games until suddenly it isn't. Reckless expansion is what brought Yingli down.
  11. Jinko will ship upto 15GW in 2019!!! How much will FSLR? (Does AMZN ring the bell? How long were they profitless before they dominated? Look at hem now.) No, I do not have position in Jinko nor in any other solar (although I should have).
  12. I think their shipment guidance is very conservative (7.4 - 7.8 GW)... Otherwise what is the point to increase module capacity up to 11.2 GW? Obviously shipment will be dramatically increased after Q-1, especially after China ratifies its PV 2019 policy. Also, as per Qu (CEO), their shipment to domestic (China) market planned at the level of 10% only... Module ASPs in foreign markets are mostly higher, and container logistics are very cheap...
  13. They keep expanding recklessly and spending way more in CAPEX than what they're producing in cash. This quarter $160M in Capex vs. $56M in EBITDA. And craaazy expansion planned for 2019. Not going to end well. Looks like the CEO has lost it just like Peng, Shi, Miao.
  14. What no comments on Jinko's ER. They fell 100MW below their low end guidance. You remove a $6M tax reversals and the $10MCVD reversals and they are at zero profits. Their belnded ASP looks to be around just over $0.30 with costs around $0.265. Mono is set to pull down further. Their 2019 guidance is 14-15GW. That is an increase of 22-32% over the past year. That is similar to last years increases that they fell short of. This is a company that is operationally profitless after standard expenses and interest. Yet they are pushing volumes over profits. They are basically using accounting gimicks to show profits. Atleast CSIQ actually made a profit from their own operations last year and not from check book accounting gimicks.
  15. Second half recovery! Everybody's doing it. It's all the rage. (MU, NVDA, AMD).. why not the solar stocks too?
  16. Some food for thought on their revenue guidance. Their 2019 mid-range revenue guidance of $3.65B is 2.5% below FY2018 rev., i.e. roughly flat yoy. Module ASP will be down roughly 20% yoy imo (33 to 27cts). To maintain module revenue, shipments must increase 25%. However they guide only 15% increase yoy at mid-range. Moreover they are guiding flat shipments in Q1 yoy (~1350MW), so in order to achieve 25% shipment growth for the whole year shipments in Q2-Q4 have to increase roughly by 30% yoy. How likely is such a boost given their 2018 shipments even dropped slightly yoy? On the projects side they have already signaled lower volume vs. 2018. ASP is also bound to drop imo because of a newer project mix and less Japan sales. Means project revenue bound to drop. Not seeing them meeting their revenue guidance with the above. Thoughts?
  17. Longi reversing their recent wafer price hike and lowering prices again. This is horrible you guys. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190322/970612.shtml
  18. People in China growing frustrated over the delay of the 2019 PV policy: http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190322/970502.shtml Can someone spin this favorably please cuz I cannot.
  19. The capital preservation point is let's be open to circumstances evolving and not rely too much on something: In early 2011 a lot of investors salivated over the fixed prices as input costs fell and they did the math on the margin impact. Of course those bloated margins to one mid part of the chain being accommodated by the rest of the chain was never realized and pulling up a chart of how investors re-priced our favourite stocks in 2011-2012 could be a sobering history lesson. Even poly suppliers had to change prices for their fixed price and volume "take or pay" contracts. When companies try to reassure investors with messages of "sold out at fixed prices" it is usually time to take the money and run in this industry.
  20. I would agree if we had the risk of a big discrepancy between market values and contract values (meaning 20% or more like in 2011), but unless the tariffs are dropped I don't see this happening. Currently mono-PERC sells for around 38 Cts in the States. Let it drop 10% to 34-35 Cts in 2020 with the tariff step-down, that would be roughly at par with the prices that FSLR has locked in for its backlog. Also I don't think the CNs have the leeway to go down with prices much further given that they are already writing losses or are barely break-even. Some companies like GCL even expect a price rebound.
  21. Did we learn nothing from 2011? All talk about "don't worry we are sold out at fixed contract prices for 2012" were worth nothing after market prices changed a lot. PV goods sell at their market value by companies that care about their future market share. Customers will stop buying from suppliers that are killing their competitiveness them by forcing them to take goods at prices far above current market value. Sure you can enforce contracts but it affect your place in the future of the industry.
  22. Last week
  23. Thanks for the reply, appreciate the info.
  24. Just entered my estimize estimate cuz it's fun. EPS of $0.02 and Rev of $1090M Kinda scared cuz my EPS estimate is the lowest out of 21.
  25. Nope. Negative news out of the US. CSIQ had great earnings for the past quarter, but sh*t the bed with their forecast for next quarter. All this from the report of one company, which doesn't even sell into the largest solar market. If JKS follows suit tomorrow, things will REALLY get ugly....
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