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  1. Today
  2. Heliosat, Explo. I do not have a real connection to DQ. I find it at the very volatile end of the volatility group. I also think of it as a boutique organization, driven in the price by other factors than fundamentals of the market. As you said, 30% moves are brought in without a lot reasoning. I dropped solar manufacturers, as I expect exploration their conditions by the market with petition adding uncertainty and first quarter being a bit softer for CSIQ. FSLR has become a lot safer now, for wrong reasons. I find NYLD and NEP pretty attractive, and NEP has just started its move, and I think it will run very well. NYLD has moved very little, a $1 from my first article. It has a lot to offer, and I hope I can put this on paper after Q1. I expect Q1 to be soft but dynamic improve with the year. They have two years instead of 5 years of growth announced, but they starting with very comfortable low payout below 60%. They do not have IDRs, which is not bad for NEP to cover, but offer a lot of growth from organic money. PEGI I need to get back to you, I am still looking at the white paper.
  3. What about PEGI vs the analysis above re DQ if more risk is considered than NEP/NYLD? PEGI is v strongly North American wind based which CS thinks could be advantaged, significant cost reduction and output increases per turbine coming as per last call, southern cross transmission line opportunities and some higher risk opportunity if they co-invest in Pattern development 2.0 as per whitepaper recently, as well as about ~8% Div. Using a very conservative dividend stream value calculation (Pendragon on SA methodology) with steep discounts on the published numbers and high safety margin for end valuation, buying under $23 would be a target. [noting high current payout ratio and assuming it will drop]. I'm a lot less excited by solarco volatility these days and also hat-tip to Robert for his great yieldco articles which really informed my thinking. (also NEP, NYLD). Happy to get there slowly. That said those with the experience and nerves to ride the volatility may hold a very different and valid view. Good wishes to all.
  4. If you want something to dig into while on the sidelines I recommend taking a look a DQ. They are at an inflection point now with their phase 3A capacity expansion reaching fully ramped production (18 kT) in Q1, ahead of schedule. They are currently a clear winner (while most others are losers) in the trade war as can be seen in their CC comments or in REC Silicons presentations. REC are showing a persistent $3 difference in poly price inside China vs outside and they are building a 19kT poly plant in China now. After DQ's completed expansion I estimate their cash cost to $6.85 and fully loaded cost to $8.30. And that's conservative. Even if poly ASP, in China, would drop to $12 they would have a GM higher than 30% on poly sales. Mid single digit EPS in 2017 is not impossible. Check out their 16Q4 ER, CC and their FY16 20-F. The stock is still offered at an attractive entry level IMO, but be aware that a 30% drop can easily happen just based adverse moves in poly ASP. I would like to get a chance to buy it at $12 again, but there's a risk it won't be offered at that price again. At least it is down from a high of $55 a few years back to $18 now as the success of what was then guided is now concluded. It's a very high risk stock, but the timing to make a bet seems good.
  5. I have updated the prices and my positions. Note I turned neutral on Chinese companies under current conditions. I do not know the impact and I am afraid prices will simply deteriorate. Below represents the conditions right now
  6. I have sold last of my CSIQ. It did hit $13.00, but I managed to sell at 13.50. I moved to NYLD for now. My investment strategy has no answer to petition output. I think CSIQ will drop, and so other stocks. I realize only silicon is being on the attack now. I will watch on a side for now.
  7. Yesterday
  8. Big climate march this weekend in Washington D.C. My good old friend is there with his friends & will be marching. I wish I could be there. It will be 92F, 33C during the march. On April 29th. How appropriate.
  9. Good to see the late recovery by CSIQ. I knew it was coming. I held onto my CSIQ today. I bought some more at the bottom & sold it at the recovery & so I wound up losing just 2.2% something like that. Would have been better to drop it at the bell though! So much of investing is about reacting to news. Even if the news isn't all that important, its what every body else is doing & so you must react to it.
  10. OK, That's good to know. I was a little bothered by how much time he spent talking about cyber security & how he liked to say "cyber secur ity" as if he was demonstrating ice to someone who had never seen it before. He came off as a douchebag to me. But good - if he can realize solar makes a profit. & install 10TW of it. All the better!
  11. OK, if he's taking personal credit, of course that's ridiculous. But he's not the only politician falling into that trap (think Al Gore and his [in]famous "I invented the Internet." Of course that's not how he meant it, but that's how it came out.) I actually think he's not so bad. He's a pragmatist--show me you can make money from an idea, and I'll support it. That is where we are with solar right now. We're cheaper than fossils in some areas already, and we're CLOSE to being cheaper everywhere. That argument has pull with people who only care about the bottom line. He's not an anti-environmental ideologue per se--show him environmentalism is good for capitalism, and he can be convinced. As opposed to Scott Pruitt, who IS a total disaster for the environment. That guy has never seen a chemical he wouldn't want to put in (someone else's) air/soil/water.
  12. That is the key. If they can manufacture at a price such that the completely unsubsidized, un-incentivized installed cost of a system (residential or utility-scale) is below the cost of fossils, eventually they will supplant fossils (especially once the storage problem is also solved). From what I've learned so far, both here on this forum and from other sources, we're close to that point now, and indeed have reached it in a few locations. But we have not quite reached it yet everywhere. We definitely should in a few years. Once we've reached the point where solar is truly cheaper than fossils, there's no reason to continue to drop prices in this cut-throat spiral we've been in the past few years. We should finally see margins stabilize and even rise again at that point, although I don't think they'll ever go back to the levels seen when we had large subsidies supporting the industry.
  13. Is this Suniva petition against modules only? or modules and cells? Edit. I see it says cells. Second edit: why the focus on CSPV by Suniva?
  14. My reasoning is that both CSIQ and JKS might have $1 or $2 max on the down side. Both of these may have a huge upside as can be seen yesterday on JASO and JKS. As the ASP continues to come down, solar electricity become competitive to other forms of electricity (coal, gas, fossil fuel ..). At which point, PV solar cost will continue to go down and panel ASP might become stable generating larger profit margins. So, I see silver lining as ASP going down provided CN3 continue to generate profits albeit small. If their costs continue to go down, I see good future for them.
  15. Too soon for me I think it will linger for now. Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk
  16. Yes, but he has very nice hair & stylish glasses. Plus, he personally had the vision & drive to install all that clean energy in Texas. What a hero.
  17. Good job! Solar stocks act like they have some sort of post traumatic stress disorder. As if we just discovered that the moon will be blotting out the sun for a few years.
  18. Bought back some CSIQ and JKS. Low enough for me.
  19. What caused such a reversal in Chinese solar stocks today? Both JKS and JASO went up big yesterday and drop hard today. Was there any news out to cause such a drop?
  20. Rick Perry also wants to install 10tw of renewables, he is an idiot like anyone in this administration Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk
  21. Yes, but still.. what a move! Just a steady move up with no down days. I like to study these cases & learn what made them move like that. On the topic of bad news for solar. Somehow the market missed this news... seems worse than the tariff petition.
  22. BWEN is something to avoid. Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk
  23. ASPs dropped about 5%... but the midpoint would probably be 2.5% Seems like cells dropped more, as well as poly. FSLR reports first & that'll probably be just daisies and roses. What can they say? Though... the fact that they wanted out of CAFD maybe is a sign that their Series 6 move isn't going well?
  24. Sold CSIQ whole position, and TSLA remanent. A little late with CSIQ, but good profits anyway.. I will stay 100% on cash throw Q1 ERs, i`m afraid from margin compressions.. time to wait and see for me..
  25. I bought more NYLD, have NEP and it is moving well, NYLD will have weak q but good year Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk
  26. some are jumping ship from modules makers into yieldcos.
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