SunEdison (SUNE)

[yomama 7]

I too don't think many know about GTAT as an investment option that has so many ties to the solar industry.  It is a great option to diversify your portfolio from the governmental issues that arise between the US, EU, & China which greatly influence the prices of Chinese Solar companies.  GTAT is an American company with tremendous potential that has now been recognized by most major analyst with buy ratings.  It is an investment you hold for at least two more years with the ability to triple your investment from current levels.  Also, many shorts are trapped so it will create pockets of tremendous price movements.

 

Full disclosure, I also own a major positions in JKS, JASO, & TSL.  Also, own a good number of shares in SOL with hopes it will return to its old form by early next year at the latest.  That one is a flyer.    Own 100,000 shares of GTAT since early 2013 as well.  I did owned most ALL of the leap call option in CSIQ two year ago for some incredible returns. Bottom line solar is the place to be for now and maybe longer term if it becomes the lowest cost energy source alternative with companies that generate that with good profit margins.

[Scsnospam 117]

yomama, do you think gtat or csiq does better in the next 2 years?

[yomama 7]

That will be a horse race.  Both will do well.

[Guest chrisceeaustin]

No need to make everything to typical Sunpower quality, thinking more of an entry level module that would be on par with the JKS/TSL. Their costs would be competitive as nearly all steps would be identical to what it would take for a Chinese name to produce modules that avoid tariffs.

Seems like sunpower is looking to play the long game -- produce only with their technology and ramp up slower than others by doing so.  Agree/disagree?

[Guest quinn the eskimo]

With such a low interest rate it can be seen investors are very eager to invest in solar. Just not in Chinese one. I guess interest for TSL will be around 4.5% for their CB. The question is really, if this different access to capital turns now for the 3 US companies in a important competitive advantage in the race to become big. Some % difference in project finance makes a huge difference in leveraged IRR for example and therefore selling prices. Did anybody observe how project loans compared between the US and CN lately?

Definately China should get the domestic market running again to provide some home support.

And now we see SPWR moving to make much of their C7 in China, to service Chinese projects, and SUNE taking on a Chinese wafer-making partner (former JV partner of theirs) to do 1,700 MWs of China-based projects. If they can access capital more cheaply (as they can at present), and see value for their project through a Yieldco or other mechanism, then they can take big strides.

 

Usefully, however, if they do take on China projects, and these begin to be recognized and valued by investors, it would also open up the field for JKS's and TSL's project-work in China to be valued more by the market.

[Guest chrisceeaustin]

Why?  

[odyd 1,268]

I think you are describing general meeting result? Companies have a certain amount of shares, when they get used up, they increase to have the available margin to conduct business.

[Guest chrisceeaustin]

Yes, I believe.  Why woudl this increase stock price?  Thanks!

[odyd 1,268]

I think the SUNE situation propels stock price, increase of outstanding shares is a negative motion normally, but it does not matter in this case.

It is the same like SPWR not making a much of a dime in solar for a very long time, but stock flying high and with the huge market cap.

I was considering SPWR, but at the time it seems that CSIQ and JKS would have a lot better earnings, I still think that.

Both stocks seem expensive.

[Guest chrisceeaustin]

Bias toward American stocks.  It's a fact.

[odyd 1,268]

Yes, there is nothing wrong with solar, as long as it is not Chinese one. This is political doctrine thinking , markets do not think that. Without political influence Chinese stocks would be valued higher, so markets are suppressed.

[Guest JMK]

I can not stand ths BS with SUNE. For the first time in my "solar" life I shorted SUNE right now just over 21. Definitely it is a trade only, investing on a short side in solar area does not make sense.

[polarsparkie 107]

SUNE upgraded at Deutsche Bank $35!

 

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Deutsche+Bank+Upgrades+SunEdison+(SUNE)+to+Buy/9583939.html

 

"We are updating our thoughts, taking a closer look at SUNE's YieldCo plans and highlighting the valuation upside potential from a successful execution of YieldCo strategy Bottom line - although shares have outperformed the broader sector ytd, we still see significant upside from current levels," said Shah.

[Guest quinn the eskimo]

Clearly, there is a lot of bias against the Chinese solars - and over-enthusiasm about the prospects for the American firms. 

 

Nonetheless, I think SUNE's project turn, and their TerraForm YieldCo, is going to earn them a great deal of money, as well as share price. When we remember that SUNE not only has a strong position in the US, but also India, Latin America, and now - with their partnership targeting 1,700 MWs - in China, I think they stand to move well North of $20. 

 

For me, I hope that SUNE's YieldCo does incredibly well, as it could very easily be the force that moves some of the Chinese solars to double.

 

1. For example, the market is already analyzing each of SUNE's projects moving into the YieldCo very closely.

2. Next, SUNE will begin to add China-based projects, as per their JV. The market will have to value these.

3. We will then have WS having placed a value on a number of China projects. 

4. Jinko and Trina and Canadian and perhaps others will also be holding China projects, and anyone in WS with half a brain will recognize a real opportunity.

5. To make this step even easier, SUNE's YieldCos are open to buying in portions of non-SUNE projects. Trina and Jinko should sell them a % of a project or two.

6. They can then take the valuations placed on those projects by WS and run with them to the bank.

 

I'm sure there are may weak links in this little chain of logic, and I'd be happy to hear peoples' views. But even if it does not unfold in precisely this manner, there seem to me to be numerous ways the SUNE YieldCo will help create a sea-change in solar valuation, including the China Solars.

[Guest chrisceeaustin]

Quinn, I agree with you.  Plus, it's a positive I think for the yieldco strategy.  A plus for stocks whose companies have a yieldco.

 

I am net up on SUNE shares today.  Sorry, my earlier posts I had not realized that the DB had reversed to highly positive.

[Guest chrisceeaustin]

What I meant by earlier post was I sold some, bought some, and am net increased in number of shares of SUNE.  I think it gets to 25 before there is real questioning about hey, is this stupid?  Or smart?

[odyd 1,268]

I know this was posted elsewhere, but I would like to highlight this here.

This news release is really the beginning of energy company on the global scale, like JKS is trying to be in China by having most of the power connected there.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sunedison-riverstone-partner-silver-ridge-210000701.html

This is unique out of all other, three US companies, which concentrate mostly on the US.

I like that set up, but I could not stop worrying about the EPS and see the trend sooner to get into the stock earlier. Luckily this is still a beginning.

[Guest quinn the eskimo]

... really the beginning of energy company on the global scale, like JKS is trying to be in China by having most of the power connected there.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sunedison-riverstone-partner-silver-ridge-210000701.html

I think we'll see more and more solar companies moving quite quickly to not just develop, but also own, projects internationally. But SUNE is already going full throttle. There is the 1700 MWs in China, but they're also heavily into India, and played a bit of a poltiical card (which should work in their favour) when they dropped that projct and complained, just before the last election.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterdetwiler/2014/04/04/sunedison-the-global-market-for-solar-irrigation-is-almost-limitless/

 

Also, a strong Chilean presence, with plants selling into the open market. They've just moved their smallish Flextronics plant to Mexico from Canada, and appear likely to expand it. 

 

And they've spoken of not just having 1 YieldCo, but potentially multiple such firms. 

 

If they can genuinely identify and capture a % of project value that traditional buyers haven't been seeing or paying for, then I suspect their growth curve will be quite steep.

 

Others, such as SPWR, have JVs in China, for their C7, and that may hold them in good stead. But it needs to be proven, and costed, and expanded. JKS and TSL will have China-based projects, but are just beginning to look into owning global projects. I believe Jinko got a large backing from the CDB to do international projects, but I'm not sure if this was to own or just develop and sell. And CSIQ is the sleeper here, as they already do so many projects, and could simply begin to hold a larger portion for a YieldCo. 

 

But to me, SUNE's actions will, more than anything, accelerate a series of changes in the wider industry. Including take-overs, involving the China firms, I would say, with CSIQ, JKS and perhaps JASO at the head of the line. Not sure who, however.

[odyd 1,268]

I did not know about the Mexico move. Not sure if I like this. What is the capacity for it? I guess it is Flextronics, problem.

I like the Chilean presence, I think they are the biggest in the country today around 200MW.

[Guest quinn the eskimo]

I did not know about the Mexico move. Not sure if I like this. What is the capacity for it? I guess it is Flextronics, problem.

I like the Chilean presence, I think they are the biggest in the country today around 200MW.

There was also some local news coverage, but only briefly. 

 

http://www.photon.info/photon_news_detail_en.photon?id=85721

[odyd 1,268]

Thanks.

[odyd 1,268]

Needham's Monk raised price target for SUNE to $26 after the accusation

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/SunEdison+%28SUNE%29+Price+Target+Lifted+to+%2426+at+Needham+%26+Company/9592887.html

" SUNE announced the acquisition of projects and pipeline from AES Corp (AES) , and plans to contribute two big projects into its yieldco TerraForm. This comes after the recent debt offering, and firm expects co to continue to take more steps to bolster its pipeline. Firm believes the deal is attractively priced for SUNE, and leveraging its yieldco, SUNE should extract more value from owning these projects. As SUNE continues to execute its strategy to drive value creation through the yieldco (and other means), firm expects the stock to continue to trade higher through and beyond TerraForm's IPO."

[Guest quinn the eskimo]

And another. SunEdison and Bluewave for 50 MWs in Massachusetts. As discussed, this could all begin moving at a very rapid pace. 

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sunedison-bluewave-capital-agree-50-210059187.html

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-19/sunedison-buying-50-megawatts-of-solar-capacity-from-bluewave.html?cmpid=yhoo

[odyd 1,268]

This sounds really good. They are picking one asset after another. I think we are looking at the energy company profile more and more. I cannot stop thinking how aggressive Shunfeng is in China nad how aggressive SunEdison is globally. While both have miserable balance sheets, for SUNE the production contribution as in energy revenue could very quickly move the dial.

[Guest JulyWebb]

I can't keep thinking how much SUNE has already ran and we're coming into August which is traditionally not a great month unless I was aware of a different behavior singled out for SUNE with horrible BS then of course it would be worth a trade. I had AMT every analysts loved it and it wasn't making money but the market was ready for a correction around Yr 2000 watched it go to 75 cents. I'd wait here on SUNE but it sounds like a great stock though.