[solarpete 37]

3 hours ago, odyd said:

Trina is in a consent order to deliver modules to SunEdison as per agreements and enforcing the automatic stay to prevent Trina from continuing any actions to interfere with property of the Debtors’ chapter 11 estates, including withholding delivery of Modules

What??  Do I understand you correctly--you're saying Trina is legally obligated to deliver products for which they have not yet been paid to a company currently in bankruptcy????

That makes ZERO sense....

[odyd 1,305]

They agreed to this, I think they will get paid. They have no claim,but ja does.

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[pg6solar 92]

Teresa Tan resigns effective July 15th. What's next?

[solarpete 37]

Only "The Shadow Knows"...

Chuckle!

[pg6solar 92]

Its official - Trina buy out approved for $1.1B - big premium to current PPS.

[explo 629]

The best CN gone then (from US investor access, while becoming a stronger competitor to our investment options). Nice day for the portfolio though.

Edited August 1 by explo

[odyd 1,305]

Finally, only if JASO did the same, we have chance for higher value for others going forward.

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[sac_solar 28]

does anyone remember the buyout price JASO was working with ?

[odyd 1,305]

9.66?

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[solarhope 0]

I think it is 9.69 if I remember correctly.

[odyd 1,305]

Not a lot of excitement here, anyone selling now or holding until the 11.60? It looks like csiq already cooling off.

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[explo 629]

16 minutes ago, odyd said:

Not a lot of excitement here, anyone selling now or holding until the 11.60? It looks like csiq already cooling off.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

Just rebalancing after the 25% pop.

 

[odyd 1,305]

I was hoping that some people were sitting on TSL for the reason of a merger and took the cash today. I guess if the agreement is executed there is more to the premium. Now, what are the chances of JASO to do the same?

I doubted JASO more and I thought TSL will do it. Perhaps JASO will have reasons to do it as well. I am sort of glad TSL delivered the commitment.  If JKS and CSIQ are to remain I do believe they will gain better valuation. Still, I think industry concerns will hold them back, but when those are cleared I suspect 25 to 30% increase just because it will be 2 from 4. I think of it based on the supply of equity to North American markets versus demand, when solar turns a new leaf. I guess the markets will miss them when they are gone. 

[odyd 1,305]

I wonder if TSL not reaching $11 or over is some doubt about the completion of the agreement or a reflection of poor results coming up. It did got 25% but the price seem to be set at $11.60, any ideas?

[explo 629]

7 hours ago, odyd said:

I was hoping that some people were sitting on TSL for the reason of a merger and took the cash today. I guess if the agreement is executed there is more to the premium. Now, what are the chances of JASO to do the same?

I doubted JASO more and I thought TSL will do it. Perhaps JASO will have reasons to do it as well. I am sort of glad TSL delivered the commitment.  If JKS and CSIQ are to remain I do believe they will gain better valuation. Still, I think industry concerns will hold them back, but when those are cleared I suspect 25 to 30% increase just because it will be 2 from 4. I think of it based on the supply of equity to North American markets versus demand, when solar turns a new leaf. I guess the markets will miss them when they are gone. 

I was thinking about exiting TSL and move funds to the remaining CN4 - thus boosting each remaining CN4 allocation from 15% to 20%. If everyone holding a buyout stock act like this it should give the PPS boost of remaining stocks you talk about, but I think it would be a short-term effect and not a lasting shift in valuation of CN solars. Therefore I think the reduction in investing and trading options of the CN solar companies is a bigger negative. Especially considering how Trina, the biggest panel maker in the world and a rapid growing developer and PV plant asset base owner, can grow much stronger from a big equity capitalization injection when they relist in China a an opportune time. The ones being bought out are the ones already financially strongest due to that they are not value by this and thus offer a low enterprise valuation for the buyer. Remaing will be the ones with more aggressive enterprise valuations. FSLR would be a buyout candidate based on this enterprise valuation perspective too (maybe not from other perspectives).

As evident I'm still negative to the undervalued balance sheets being removed from our stocks buffe due to investors only valuing the income statements, while the smart chairmans scoop up the stocks on the cheap (they can give themselves a big dividend after buyout from strong BS to make the net cash they paid for the income statement very small).

[explo 629]

5 hours ago, odyd said:

I wonder if TSL not reaching $11 or over is some doubt about the completion of the agreement or a reflection of poor results coming up. It did got 25% but the price seem to be set at $11.60, any ideas?

It's probably the time component causing keeping som upside to offer price. Deal not closing until next year. At this point I don't know if TSL stock from here might have best outlook giving the industry worries for 2H, so I didn't pull the trigger on exiting TSL yet.

[odyd 1,305]

5 hours ago, explo said:

I was thinking about exiting TSL and move funds to the remaining CN4 - thus boosting each remaining CN4 allocation from 15% to 20%. If everyone holding a buyout stock act like this it should give the PPS boost of remaining stocks you talk about, but I think it would be a short-term effect and not a lasting shift in valuation of CN solars. Therefore I think the reduction in investing and trading options of the CN solar companies is a bigger negative. Especially considering how Trina, the biggest panel maker in the world and a rapid growing developer and PV plant asset base owner, can grow much stronger from a big equity capitalization injection when they relist in China a an opportune time. The ones being bought out are the ones already financially strongest due to that they are not value by this and thus offer a low enterprise valuation for the buyer. Remaing will be the ones with more aggressive enterprise valuations. FSLR would be a buyout candidate based on this enterprise valuation perspective too (maybe not from other perspectives).

As evident I'm still negative to the undervalued balance sheets being removed from our stocks buffe due to investors only valuing the income statements, while the smart chairmans scoop up the stocks on the cheap (they can give themselves a big dividend after buyout from strong BS to make the net cash they paid for the income statement very small).

 

Some say that as the public company, Trina owes certain performance level to shareholders. As a private entity, it can become more aggressive and undersell aggressively in the Chinese market.

I agree with you that lack of proper valuation and the exit which such a condition brings on to Trina is not a sign of a healthy balance in the market. However, because this condition is chronic and the market values those companies in this fashion, only mechanical reduction of available equity is the option left. The competitive transformation leaving Yahoo and Google from dot.com era is probably no in the books, but I take this as the solution bringing this to a similar conclusion.

On a personal note TSL to China, in my long term view is not a positive solution to Trina. In my opinion, the global perspective requires North American status. Yes, I get it is a second citizen position in a lineup, but Trina has done so much to promote global stand that I consider this step backwards unless Trina does want to be the ruler of the Chinese market. Hence domestic appetite by this move will be met with the opportunity to invest in the company.

China has many solar companies, however, in my opinion, only those listed in the US has shown leadership and strength.  I think as soon as Trina goes under private ownership, it legacy will pass, and she will blend in with the rest of the Chinese.

 

[explo 629]

Valid points. I would still like to see Trina as an option for US investors. I think that it over 10 years is second only to FSLR in accumulating profits (no one comes close to FSLR, but few actually accumulates profits at all over longer periods). Looking only at the last 5 years JKS and CSIQ is matching them though.

 

[solarpete 37]

I still have a couple of positions left in TSL, purchased over a year ago in the low 13s.  So I'm not happy with a lowball buyout offer.  Once again, so much for a company board's "fiduciary duty" to stockholders.  Will hold to get the 11.60 at least.

Looks like I have more damage repair trading to do just to have a breakeven year--sigh....

Wondering when solar will EVER get its act together.  These companies are a classic example of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, given solar's long-term outlook.