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Guest larryvand   
Guest larryvand

Whatever the reason of the discussion of any company, there should never be a reason to personally attack a poster, which is what nano did. That is what denigrates the discussion real fast. And IMO, that is what moderators need to focus on and make sure it is not allowed. JMHO.

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Guest abcdefgjoho   
Guest abcdefgjoho

relax everyone. this is a good board. criticism should always be allowed on any stock. it can also be subjective "IMO" style. it should also be allowed to post gut feelings. just understand one thing. whatever is typed here has 0% impact on the stock price. so there is no pumping or bashing actually. it has no impact. technicals and fundamentals have but not what people type on msg boards. thx to odyd for the good work and now back to content. today is another great solar rally day. i just read france increase their annual installation goal to surpass 1 GW. so i can revise that up already.

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explo    671

I seems this topic was bound for trouble. :) Maybe "Who is best?" topics are testing the civility ambitions too much? (everybody shouts "my dad!", starts praising their own, soon the bashing of other follows and then the insults come) Regarding separating discussions about companies to the specific forums, it would be good for several reasons, but I think it is hard in reality. You might have a topic about polysilicon and then suddenly there's a lot to talk about in terms of different companies in relation to that.

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dydo    1,425

It is all good, let's get back to business of solar, good day all ha? Someone is trying to break the site, I had 200 attempts to get back into the spvi , slowed down the server doing it.

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Guest larryvand   
Guest larryvand

I noticed that and I was ready to send a private email as site refreshes were taking forever. Now it's back to normal.

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Guest spiritcraft   
Guest spiritcraft

I seems this topic was bound for trouble.

I suppose I worded it incorrectly but this thread has a place. We are here to share ideas and help each other so we have to be civil yet grow a thicker skin as well. That all said, comparing thoughts on who breaks out of this sooner is a very valid subject. Most of us are not in just one name and are at least watching many. CSIQ exploded on huge volume today like many others. It seems something is going on as there seems to be big blocks going through. Covering? Taking positions? Who knows.

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Guest griffzinho   
Guest griffzinho

Hi, I'm new to posting here. Being enjoying reading and lurking over posts these last few months. Great to finally have an active solar investor board. My thoughts on the best bets for the coming up cycle (hopefully) By far my largest holding is SOL. Has been for a long time. Management, low cost poly, wafer tech, tariff exemption, emerging brand with VIRTUS, relatively low CAPEX spend (and DEBT) for what they have built leads to the most cost effective fully integrated solar company by far. My second largest holding is CSIQ. Good project business and close supplier agreement with GCL. Both of the above will benefit hugely form any tariff on imported polysilicon. Finally my third holding is JKS, which I think is another well managed company with a relatively low debt and good brand image. I firmly believe in solar and find it hard to believe that the all incost of a PV module will be approx 50 cent a watt be Q1-Q2 of this year. The cost reduction in the past 18 months has been nothing short of phenomenal. I also think Trina will do well, despite its large debt and await with interes to see how LDK is going to compete with its bloated balance sheet.

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explo    671

Hi griff, Same view as I have on which 3 are best positioned for profits. I'm also of the view that 50 cent all-in cost for a module is phenomenal. Two years ago I had this target for this decade and saw it as the first inflexion point for a new level of demand stimulation, since it can enable module prices as low as 70 cents. This enables good economic sense for major PV installation in large portion of geographies and energy markets. Can't believe we're here now. Next level is when module price is 50 cents, then PV will be the default alternative almost everywhere (i.e. 10-20% of global generation might come from PV after the great install). There's not capacity for this yet, so I think we'll see yet at least another cycle, with module prices risking shooting above $1 within 2 years, triggering a new expansion wave.

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Guest Klothilde   
Guest Klothilde

Has anybody already hit 50 cents all-in cost? Maybe I missed out on something. From my understandting JKS currently has the lowest cost at 59 cents as of Q3 (12 poly, 47 non-poly). For Q4 they may get to 54 (9 poly, 45 non-poly). Is anybody else close to 50? With stable or increasing poly prices I don't see the 50 cents becoming very likely before the next poly investment cycle, however. Also bear in mind that the 9 cents poly from JKS are at cash cost level, and the big 4 poly guys need at least 14-17 cents to feel cozy. As to who will perform best coming out of this cycle I have a crazy theory going: I think that in a demand recovery scenario it is the big poly manufacturers and the competitive thin film guys who will profit the most. At 40-50GW demand runrate (End of 2013) silicon prices will have already gone up significantly and poly players will be able to make good profits. Higher poly prices also translate directly to higher margins for the thin film guys (FS and SF). And prices will stay high until the next poly investment cycle runs its course. As for the c-Si panel makers I think that the winning teams will have a balance of good market presence, healthy balance sheet, and downstream integration. I'm not too keen on technology and lowest production cost, since I fear that the spot price of components will continue to be saturated at or near cash cost level. I see CSIQ very strong in downstream as well, but also have my hopes in Trina due to the brand and the healthier balance sheet. Of course they need to speed up their work on projects, which is something that management seems to have understood.

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explo    671

Not really 50 cents, yet. As you say some are close to hit 55 cents right now. SOL said they think they will hit all-in cost around 52 cents this year. YGE said they'll hit 45 cents processing now and can chop 5-8 cents off that by end of 2013. So 50 cents is within reach this year.

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