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Outlook looks good at first glance, but I had hoped that they would be more aggressive on REC Solar expansion plans, so that they can consume more output from REC Silicon. The imminent tariff decision makes it hard invest now, due to PPS shock risk on decision day. Otherwise it's an attractive case.

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Guest Klothilde

Many other interesting observations in the Oci deck.

Full CAPEX transparency for their various poly projects on page 28!

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That's a couple of months away I think. China decision is within a few weeks.

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A lot but no disclosure on the cost of production. $2 of savings across production lines. The only reason Explo is probably lower purity poly , which can cost less to produce.

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Guest spiritcraft

Tread Resurrection... Curious... I am now in SOL along with TSL, CSIQ and JKS. My question is the continued run of JKS... it would seem prudent to rotate into perhaps SOL as it is beginning but not yet made quite the move as JKS. There has not been a lot of chatter about JKS here and while their cost structure may allow them to break even as soon as most others, I am not sure why they seem so ahead in the share price game at the moment. Thoughts?

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Tread Resurrection... Curious... I am now in SOL along with TSL, CSIQ and JKS. My question is the continued run of JKS... it would seem prudent to rotate into perhaps SOL as it is beginning but not yet made quite the move as JKS. There has not been a lot of chatter about JKS here and while their cost structure may allow them to break even as soon as most others, I am not sure why they seem so ahead in the share price game at the moment. Thoughts?

Nice to see you in SOL spirit. On JKS, first of all it was weirdly low at $2. Still it seems strong lately. I think the explanation is good Q3 financial performance and generally best financial performance last 3 years. Going forward I fear that they'll post low ASP in Q4 and their cost advantage will narrow in 2013 as competitors catch up. But right now they are the new performance track record company.

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Guest Klothilde

JKS also has full spot poly exposure, meaning that with poly prices above $25 they'll have a cost disadvantage vs. TSL and others who have contract exposure @$25

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Guest sony1

JKS also has full spot poly exposure, meaning that with poly prices above $25 they'll have a cost disadvantage vs. TSL and others who have contract exposure @$25

So this means JKS has a pretty huge cost advangate still. And GCL has 10 000 MT of poly they can't off-load, running only 50% etc. Man, you SOL pumpers are funny. Even talking about $28 poly, right. Another reason for owning JKS is thei management.

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Guest larryvand

Another reason for owning JKS is their management.

BTW, FWIW JKS and SOL are related as the company heads are brothers. And the $28 poly came out of the mouth of GCL. Solarzoom. 2-11-13

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"Man, you SOL pumpers are funny. Even talking about $28 poly, right. Another reason for owning JKS is thei management." Funny your already throwing jabs and your the newest member to forum. Don't drink too much of that hatorade.... Bad for you my man...

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Guest ILOVEPV

PV portfolio to yours taken absolutely independetly explo mine (average buy price) 50% SOL 50% SOL (1.44) 15% CSIQ 15% CSIQ (3.12) 10% YGE 15% SPWR (7.56) 10% HSOL 10% YGE (2.67) _5% JKS 10% FSLR (27.19) _5% REC _5% JASO Unfortunately I am unable to buy REC on my account.

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Guest spiritcraft

You newbie! You are not underwater anywhere. I, on the other hand, have a few hundred shares of TSL dating back to January 2008... Luckily I have bitten the bullet and drank the koolaide enough to add at the recent lows and since.

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I'm working towards my target allocation above. Starting with all SOL, added some HSOL a few days ago and some CSIQ and REC today. I might drop JKS and JASO. YGE is quite expensive and Q4 ASP might suprise market on the negative side with more China sales than a normal quarter for them. The outlook for 2H13 has better KPI than Q4, so I'll probably wait with initating YGE until after Q4 ER.

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Torched, lit up, toasted, Lights out.... The infant stage of the new solar bull rally... All the pieces in placing... Rising prices, explosive demand, and motherland finally backing their babies...the time to short this sector has passed. Time to go long.... Very long

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Guest ILOVEPV

Thanks for update. I just made several changes today: 1. sold out SPWR $10.10 (wait for lower entry) 2. sold 50% of YGE right now 3.56 (wait for earnings) 3. sold CSIQ 3.04 -right now (wait for lower entry) 4. ready to trade in and out 20-25% of SOL position.

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Guest spiritcraft

With regard to SOL and their seeming leadership (out of nowhere) in shipments to the US. How many MW of panels can they currently ship in a year? I find this information almost hard to believe. I love that China will be sucking up capacity but it would seem that those who sell more outside China would do better GM wise. Also, looking at comparative charts of those select Chi-Solars I watch it seems that TSL is still a laggard YTD. I know that TSL is not the darling here among many but I bet they have a big move coming as it has been basing for over a month now.

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Spirit, that's good observation. The landscape is reshaping now with Germany being 11% and China, US and Japan 50% together in 2013. ROW outside Europe is also doubling to more than 20%. For me it is very interesting to see where the companies go. Where are the low ASP Germany market-shares redirected? To the new super low ASP market China or to the other two higher ASP markets of the new big 3? Or maybe focus is on becoming a top 3 brand in one of the emerging smaller market, like Renesola in Greece or Trina along with Renesola and Suntech in Australia. It's interesting here to know the technology strengths, like Renesola's Virtus and Virtus II modules having very low temparature coefficient, making them ideal to get high IRR in hot climates (reflected by Greece, Spain and Australia positioning). Odyd's Q4 exports presentation gives you a hint of who exports most: http://solarpvinvestor.com/paid-reports/view_document/1-q4-2012-module-export-data-presentation Relate the total exports ranking to the total shipment sizes of the companies. For example YGE export much more than CSUN, but CSUN has a higher degree of exports. CSUN, SOL, HSOL and CSIQ being successful in Q4 exports is easily concluded that way. Others sold more at home in Q4 as it was one third of the world market that quarter. The geographic breakdown of the exports for the top 4 is also given, where you for example see that Renesola has taken positions in Australia, Greece and US in 2012, while rest remains in spread across Europe (southern, eastern, UK and Dutch distributor focused). For me this is all very interesting data and you get all the detailed numbers on a monthly basis in the SolarZoom reports that can be purchased from SPVI. I have to say that this product is very well timed and I can understand odyd being disappointed with the weak reception. I think one thing we should remember is that basically a new PV world is dawning right now and we have to read the trend early to be successful. The old recipe of having a big brand in Germany does not apply anymore. Global brand can help to claim new markets though (depending on how global brands were built and thus the actual "global" reach, e.g. how much European soccer is watched downunder?), but in many markets the players will also start on a more level basis as they launch their entry as long as they're large scale.

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Guest Klothilde

Careful when you associate SOL with Greece as this can have a detrimental effect on SOL share price. Greece is broke and they are thinking about all kinds of FIT expense curbs, even retroactive cuts. Imo this is by no means an attractive emerging market.

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