Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Guest nanofrogfish_spf

Just checking SOL out...in Q3 they had NEGATIVE 18% GM, and NEGATIVE 38% OM! And they HOPE to have a positive GM in Q4. About the same balance sheet and market cap as CSIQ, but with half the revenue and no real visible revenue to speak of. And Q1 will be very strong profit-wise for CSIQ...will it be for SOL? But somehow SOL is the better value, just because you guys don't like Qu's enthusism? I've got to be honest, I just don't get the CSIQ bashing when SOL doesn't look like anything that special to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest larryvand

I didn't make it personal, but you are. You sound like somebody who is married to a stock and is upset that his stock underperforming today. And what is my agenda here? You seem to be all knowing so let me know. Huh?? 100 faces? What does that even mean?? And BTW, CSIQ management back a year ago said they will have the lowest costs and will gain massive market share and be profitable. So how did that work out for them? CSIQ management is just full of hot air and resemble snake oil salesmen. The first CC that I heard them show some humility was the last one. But then again so would I if I was cutting guidance from where I told them it would be only 3 months earlier. And only dishonest people would name a Chinese company "Canadian". LOL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nano, the market is very bad for poly and wafer now, which is SOL's main focus, so they should do bad. Btw, let's calm down the discussion tone. I think odyd prfers calm fact focused discussions here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi all please keep it civil.

We all escaped the nightmare of yahoo abuse for this place, let’s not bring this back. We have all right to our preference and even criticism of each company, but stay off commenting on each other, ok?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest spiritcraft

I agree, let's go out of our way to remain civil and turn the other cheek if offended... After all there is no better way to take the higher ground than to not take the bait. We must keep this informative and respectful.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest nanofrogfish_spf

explo, someone posted that CSIQ said a “lot” of things in the past year that “proved” they were “snake oil salesmen”, and you agreed with this. I’m just trying to get some kind of real answer to support this accusation. All I got is some vague comment that they supposedly made over a year ago…btw I’d like to see a reference to that exact quote, but of course it doesn’t exist. They do say every quarter, like every other firm, that their goal is to continue to gain market share (which they have) and to be profitable (turns out with the way the market unfolded last year, that no-one could have predicted, no-one was profitable last year). And comments about being low cost…well they are. So I’m still waiting for something, anything that supports that accusation.

Is it OK if I just start bashing SOL, saying anything I want without anything to back-up any of my vague statements, as long as I’m polite about it? The only thing different between Yahoo and this would be the polite part. I bet that if that same comment was made about your beloved SOL CEO, you would have challenged it also…period.

And when I try just simply asking for one single fact to back up the accusation, I don’t get an answer I just get tag-teamed and accused of it being personal and that I must be “married” to the stock (or I must be mad because my stock is underperforming today…lol) just because I challenged the unsupported and vague accusation. Maybe trying to throw it all back on me is really an attempt to try and divert from my original question of asking for one single fact to support it (offense is the best defense).

I came to the SPVI boards so I could have reasonable discussions on solar in general, and CSIQ in particular, without the Yahoo BS. I didn’t come here to read posters bashing the CEOs of any company, and basically attacking their integrity and calling them liars, or any other kind of fact-less bashing, especially without a shred of evidence to support it, just so they can pump the one stock they own. If one or 2 missed calls on targets or guidance equates to being a “snake oil salesman”, then by your own definition they all are. I spend a lot of time trying to post good, useful, factual info and non-bashing opinions here, but if I can’t challenge the baseless accusations, well believe me I have much better things to do with my time…

This is as civil a response as I can make…

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nano, i think everyone get's a gut impression from people they hear talking. Larry justed shared his such impression from CSIQ CC and I concurred with him. I'm quite sensitive to when someone tries to over-sell something and I get that feeling often on CSIQ calls. This is of course subjective and cannot be taken as statements of fact. I don't feel like digging up the causal examples. Frankly, you sound quite upset today. Are you sure that we mentioning this impression is the only thing that upset you today?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest spiritcraft

Why don't we let this go and move on? I would hope that this becomes a long running thread. I do hope that there is success across the board for all of our picks but would like to know who may be noticed first or perceived to be approaching profitability the earliest. Perhaps when we have opinion threads like this where passions always run high (since we all feel strongly about our picks) we could focus on the finer points of our favorites rather than being overly negative on another members picks. We certainly can't be made to refrain from pointing out the miss-steps of a company but we could try to word it better or in such a way as to not inflame passions. It would at least keep a thread more focused on the topic rather than allowing it to spin out of control. This should be more analytical perhaps as in "this is why I like ABC and am not so enthusiastic about XYZ" rather than "your stock sucks". :-) After all, SOL's success does not preclude the success of CSIQ or vice versa. Further, any one of these 11 could be slammed for something they did in the last two years. I am sure it has been as stressful for some in management as it has been for us. They would all prefer to have been raking in profits rather than dealing with a global pricing / profit meltdown. I guess the gist of it is that in the last two years there are no investors or management members who could not be pointed out for being wrong in our case or stating things that didn't come true. Then again, if there were ever a group of investors who deserve patience for their impatience and passion, it is we. Do feel free to bash any blatant short though for everything you are worth though!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest nanofrogfish_spf

explo, first of all, I've never had any issues with you, the friendly back & forth discussions have been good conversation and informative. And to address if there was anything else today that upset me, well yes, I guess because it's the second time today I've responded to someone who decided to use CSIQ as their whipping boy. It just seems like it's getting more and more to be the "bash CSIQ while pumping SOL" boards....just starting to look too much like the Yahoo boards, and I expect it's going to get worse. I really see no purpose for myself to waste time here anymore...I continuously stay on top of my investment and I like posting what I find, because the analysts aren't ever going to tell you the whole story, only what's in their best interests, and that's by far my biggest pet peave. But since whatever anyone posts here will not have any effect on the long term performance and stock price anyway, well it's just not worth it to me to keep arguing with bashers, and it's certainly not in my nature to just ignore it on a board like this. I still can't believe someone posts a bunch of crap that the CEO is a big fat liar, and when I respond everyone attacks me. But no-one can answer me either...just that it's too much trouble to dig up all the casual examples. So you and your SOL buddies can keep pumping your one great stock with each other, and keep patting each other on the back...I wish the best to you and all true solar longs, regardless of which company their invested in...and I really do truly mean that, because as investors we've put up with countless underhanded negative attacks, and also because clean energy is so important to the worlds future... spirit...good post, but I'm just going to take a break from this board for awhile (that should make the SOL guys happy on their new board)...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nano, thanks for starting off nicely. I wouldn't want you to leave this board. You've contributed a lot of good info, especially on CSIQ and those project revenue recognition sheets. I would like to remind you that I in this thread said that CSIQ is my second favourite pick for 2013. To be nuanced about it (should be allowed, right?) I listed both strength and weakness points. The strength points where twice as many as the weakness points and one of the weakness points was my impression of the management presentations. Spirit, to your more specific question, I believe JKS is the one that will first show a trajectory towards modest profits. CSIQ can have a blowout quarter any time, depending on project revenue recognition timings (nano has analyzed this), and do best of all in 2013. SOL I think will collect the most profits in total during the coming cycle. All these 3 have balance sheets that don't need to allocate too much of the profits for repair, i.e. there's a viable outlook for share holders to enjoy the profits (not dividends at this phase, but by not having to put in funds (dilute) to help the company grow).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest spiritcraft

Nano, maybe just continue to post in the CSIQ forum for now? You have valuable info and we need more genuine investors rather than less. I don't want to step on Odyd's toes but we need different investors that know more about their individual stocks as that increases all of our knowledge through their perspective and company specific info gathering. Let's take a break and get back to you SOL and CSIQ corners... whew. This is not a winner takes all scenario.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest singular

To all of the posters on this thread. Let me start off by saying that all of the information and insight is very much appreciated. In my experience, stocks are sometimes like religion or politics. If someone believes in a stock to the degree that some of you believe in your stocks, he can then take it very personally when someone has something negative to say about that stock. That is because you are not only speaking of the company, but in his sense of judgement. You are attacking his dreams to a degree. A person puts a lot of faith in a company and you tell them that they are wrong or that their investment is worthless. That will probably upset him. So to defend his position, he attacks what you believe in, most likely without even knowing it, for the purpose of justifying his position. We can all discuss the solar 11 without attacking other people's beliefs or opinions. Just keep the great info flowing and all will be well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Klothlide, I just created forum for First Solar go ahead start threading. SunPower will be started in the moment. Hint me all on what forums you need

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest spiritcraft

We that is fine too I am sure. I guess there are many further options aside from the 11. I am not is SPWR for example but would have like to been. Many here tend to forget the US names or are focused on the Chi Solars.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest spiritcraft

Thanks explo. In the case of JKS, they are targeted to lose between $1.60 to $2.80 or so next year. There is not likely an analyst that sees a profitable quarter. If there happens to become talk of quarterly profitability, no matter how little, I think that the tables really turn and EPS target start to get revised. That will provide price spikes for any of these names when it does come to fruition. I know this isn't 2009, but that was the deal then. There was the same talk of all of these names remaining unprofitable until insolvency and it really took just the notion of coming profitability to start the ball rolling, especially in TSL's case. They of course followed through. Again, not saying this is 2009 and not saying when, but a similar jump will occur.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi all again, I think that everyone on those boards have done tremendous amount of work, to bring facts and their view on solar energy. I really do not get the point about commenting how Chinese speakers sound on conference calls, but they do not sound great period, from western standards view. I think it should certainly not matter from perspective of any analysis we do here, whether Qu has characteristics of snake oil salesman or pope . If we all agree that then negative comment is really a personal preference, it stays in the realm of such. What followed was surely not analysis but emotion. My plea to all of you is use your logical and analytic mind instead. Do not refer to each other in the fashion you would not want to be addressed yourself and that should do the trick. I have means and so do you to edit your posts, including deleting it. If you choose to remove the posts which went bad I will be happy about it. If you can tolerate them I am fine as well. On another note, I have some very interesting info on declared shipments for December. Some of our darlings are shipping allover the place, including exotic locations for CSIQ. Now if name calling will appear somewhere else I will use tools to stop it. I enjoy this board a lot and I check it daily. I told Snake that I will not allow personal attacks and I plan to keep this promise. I also said that I will ask for moderators. PM me if you are interested in any of the boards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks odyd.

I really do not get the point about commenting how Chinese speakers sound on conference calls, but they do not sound great period, from western standards view. I think it should certainly not matter from perspective of any analysis we do here, whether Qu has characteristics of snake oil salesman or pope

This part might not be fully fair. Shawn's and Michael's language sounds great to me. And I have no problem understanding other solar 11's or read anything into the acoustics or grammar of it. The comment on how CSIQ present themselves to investors was on the content/message, not how it was said.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest larryvand

IMO, my view is that if anyone wants to pump a specific company, they should do it in their own board and not in the general threads of "Solar News, Analysis". IMO, that should keep the misunderstandings and personal attacks out of the way of a good discussion. JMHO. BTW, I don't mean mentioning their name or a data fact. I'm talking continuous and subjective and selective pumping.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Larry,If anyone wants to promote their stock is good to do it in their respective forums, I agree. I would say that criticism of any stock in general forum should be left to facts, like figures and news releases with opinions on their impact. In this particular case of a good discussion would be list of statements made as an error by one CEO versus another CEO accuracy as example. Management certainly is important to the success of the company and Potter as a CFO, has absolutely positive impact on view of CSIQ on markets. If you focused on the content/ message I am sure we would not be here right now. It is about presentation and approach of that message, which made negative reaction. I think we spent enough on this subject. What I ask for all is to create alternative to yahoo, and for the 99% the value of this thread to investors in solar is higher than yahoo. What we do not have is circulation. It is important to have quality posters and the first 20 will set the tone for next 100, so be mindful of your actions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Who's Online (See full list)

    There are no registered users currently online

  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      40
    • Total Posts
      90,195


×