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tupapa last won the day on December 27 2017

tupapa had the most liked content!

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About tupapa


  • Portfolio %
    100% DQ

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  1. Daqo (DQ)

    I can only imagine, I was fortunate enough to only have capital available for investing 2 years ago, and I begun loooking at solar last year. What lured me towards the sector was the sense of dispair after Trump's victory. Now I am pretty confident that the market has bottomed and it will keep trending for many years to come, due to solar capacity, which will increase exponentially for many years.
  2. Daqo (DQ)

    I've got 90% of my capital in Daqo and don't lose any sleep over it. I welcome apprehension towards daqo and the overall solar sector, this is a sign of health in a bull market. Markets will bottom in dispair,they will climb the wall of worry and top on euphoria. Once everyone is talking about solar as the new oil, it is on the cover of most media outlets and everyone wants to buy. This is when we should sell, but this moment is still very far away. Just my two cents.
  3. Daqo (DQ)

    Nothing fundamental has changed, as far as I'm concerned Daqo still going north of 100 and I ain't selling. Solar PV will continue to smash all records and poly will remain high. Folks are selling, it's a market, prices will always fluctuate. Daqo is still the best solar stock and this will be reflected in it's valuation by year end, after 3 quarters of circa 3 EPS.
  4. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I try my best not to take market losses personally. However, in a community, where everyone is trying their best to make money and share the knowledge they have so that we can all prosper, I find some behaviours reprehensible. Your gratuitous slandering of Daqo's CEO, when you know many of us are holders. Your insistence in pointing out Canadian Solars success now that it is going private, after a lot of members of the community lost or didn't make money ( I myself lost a considerable amount due to leverage), even going to the extreme of "congratulating" holders when good news is released. Are just two examples I have encountered.
  5. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Good Lord, you really are a despicable creature.
  6. Solar News

    No worries, are you Australian?, I already purchased a few POWR waiting for DQ to reach my target to buy more POWER and potentially lo3
  7. Daqo (DQ)

    So was I, still holding my full amount since 25. But please go ahead and short it, more fuel for the bull run to the 100s once you have to cover.
  8. Daqo (DQ)

    Sounds like a good candidate for a short.
  9. Daqo (DQ)

    Hope and Fear are the emotions that govern market behavior, the reason why most people lose money in the stock market is because Hope and Fear are misplaced. In an uptrend, people tend to fear that the market will take away their profits, and this fear makes them sell too soon. Conversely, in a downtrend people tend to hope that price will come back to their entry point, and they are left holding the bag. In order to differentiate oneself from the herd, and make big profits one must reverse the Hope-Fear equation. In an uptrend (winning position), one must HOPE that price will continue trending higher and let profits run. In a downtrend (losing position) one must FEAR that the market will continue trending lower and cut ones losses. Unless one is able to do this, it is unlikely that one will make large profits in the market. As Livermore put it, "Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon"
  10. Daqo (DQ)

    Consensus on solar PV growth has been wrong in the past and will continue to be wrong in the future, How much Solar PV increase were the "Experts" predicting for 2016? And for 2017?. Real consensus is Price, forget about the experts, price of Poly moving higher because there is relative scarcity. I don´t base my investment decisions on consensus of experts, I base them on price.
  11. Daqo (DQ)

    Different tactics I guess, for me it is a mistake to refrain from buying a stock because it is "too expensive" or to sell it because it has "gone up too much". In fact I never buy stocks at the lows, I always buy them when they make new highs (which was the case with DAQO at 25 and 30). This might seem counter-intuitive and against the common-place adagio buy low and sell high. I want to buy high, buying high means that you are behaving in accordance with the price system. Price moving higher is a signal that there is relative scarcity of a given asset, it doesn´t matter whether it is a commodity like Poly, a Stock like Daqo, Real State or even Labour. Prices go up when there is relative scarcity, and as an investor I wan´t to buy scarcity and sell over-production.
  12. Daqo (DQ)

    I disagree with both of you, I think you are both overestimating the potential for a large drop in poly prices and you are underestimating Daqos competitive advantage and growth story. 1- Competitive Advantage (Thanks H20) 2-Daqo Growth to continue to 30 MT and 7,5 $/KG in 2020 3- Solar PV Growth to Accelerate and pump up demand for Poly, keeping prices "high" or higher, even with more efficient tech such as Diamond Wire I believe that even if poly comes down slightly or remains table, Daqo is still a 120-200 USD company because of production expansion and cost reduction by 2020. This is why I am not selling a single share until I see price above 100, AND I find a more suitable invextment. Speaking of which, since you aren´t buying into Daqo, what are you buying into? Where do you see more value that in Daqo at the momment? It´s not that I have a fetish with Daqo, if I find good reasons to invest elsewhere I´d be happy to reallocate some capital so I´d be happy to hear your views on more suitable investments.
  13. Daqo (DQ)

    I agree, in less than half a century solar will produce most of the energy in the world. How do we make money on this success story? We buy Daqo, simple.
  14. Daqo (DQ)

    Solar market growing 50% per annum, EVs etc.. I feel like I'm repeating myself so if anybody thinking of daqo they can read my posts for my reasonings. I am fully invested and don't plan to sell any shares till 100-120 range when it has a 10 pe, I will sell 1/3 only if I find a more suitable investment such as blockchain energy trading which I am a firmly believer in.
  15. Daqo (DQ)

    There is no reason to believe there is oversupply of polyisilicon or will be in the near future. In fact quite the opposite which is why prices are icnreasing. You are ignoring the basic mechanism of the market. The price system simply conveys information on relatively scarcity or abundance of a given commodity, thus informing the economy about what we need more and less of. The price system is a signal wrapped up as an incentive, E.G.; Poly prices are going up in China and elsewhere because there isn´t enough supply to cover demand. Module prices are going down because there is too much supply. Where should you put your money as an investor? The Price System is telling you to put it where there is scarcity, I.E. Polysilicon, and the best Poly producer is DAQO, because they have a remarkable track record of production expansion and cost reduction (see the chart I posted above). We can´t predict the future or attain complete knowledge of the state of affairs of a particular industry, but by being open to the information contained in the price mechanism, we can allocate our investment to activies where there is scarcity and take our investments out of activities where there is overproduction. This in my view is the biggest challenge in investing and speculation. The fun thing about all this is that only one of us will be proven right, and again the only judge of who´s right and wrong will be the Price. So let´s see how events unfold.