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tupapa

Solar Member
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tupapa last won the day on December 3

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About tupapa

Portfolio

  • Portfolio %
    67% DQ 33% CSIQ

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  1. Daqo (DQ)

    I'm not, solar PV growing 50% per annum and Daqo 7,5 usd/kg in 2020. That is so much cheaper than the competition that it doesn't matter how much new production comes in, it won't get close to daqos asp. Any they are already making 8 EPS without increasing output and without lowering production cost to 7,5. If you ask me, it's a no brainier and Daqo is the only solar stock worth owning. Once it breaks above 56 this will fly to 100.
  2. Daqo (DQ)

    What are the chances of DQ going private anybody know? After the csiq misadventure I'm concerned...
  3. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    What a bunch of cheats, that explains the plunge post earnings and last week's disgraceful manipulation. How likely is it that it Will go private? I read the greedy couple own 23%, will there be a vote on the decision? I was under impression that there was strong institutional ownership of the stock and it would be so easy to take it private...
  4. Trading Solars

    This might not seem directly related to Solar but I think it might have an impact on growth. https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/bitcoin-uses-more-energy-than-ireland#gs.OgY7Mf4 It mentions the Bitcoin network using as much energy as the entire nation of Ireland. Furthermore, other Currencies such as Ethereum, Litecoin etc are also demanding huge amounts of electricity. If the Blockchain is widely adopted it will mean a considerable increase of electricity demand worldwide, and this new demand will be satisfied by the cheapest source available, i.e. Solar PV. Blockchain+ Electric Transport= Huge Growth of Electricity Demand= Huge Growth of PV? Last year, new Installed Solar PV capacity grew by 50%. If this growth was to remain stable, by 2030 the world would have a total of 23,800 GW of Solar PV Capacity and Solar would likely be the leading source of energy production. Do you think such a revolution is possible or should I lay of the grass??
  5. Daqo (DQ)

    Glad it helped. I'm not planning to sell any until the 100s
  6. Solar Stocks Technical Analysis

    I am currently studying a masters degree in philosophy. I am an ecologist and I would like to develop a career that makes some contribution to solving climate change. I have also spent considerable time studying markets and specifically Wyckoffs lessons from the 1900s. But I´m not a professional trader.
  7. Solar Stocks Technical Analysis

    In case anybody else is interested in this accumulation stuff, I am sharing my analysis of DQ and CSIQ since both charts are so remarkably similar and they illustrate well this critical market dynamic. In both charts I have annotated the two major accumulation campaigns of the past decade; First the 2012-2013 campaign, second the 2016-2017 campaign. Notice how during both campaigns volatility quiets down (the bar narrow) and volume diminishes. This is because a financial syndicate (or a number of them) have decided that a stock is undervalued and they wanna run a campaign, the best time to do this is when there is general apathy or outright despair towards a particular sector, a company or perhaps the whole economy. So the professional syndicate places bid orders at a narrow range and they spend weeks or even months buying up as much stock as they can handle. Eventually supply dries up (no volume left) there are no sellers left and as market sentiment towards the sector improves and new buyers come in they are forced to bid up prices. Why? Because there is no supply left at current prices since the professionals have accumulated all that was on offer. So, following the above logic, IF the accumulation in CSIQ is completed successfully, I would expect volume to pick up and prices to increase sharply in order to find new sellers, just like what happened with DQ some weeks ago.
  8. Solar Stocks Technical Analysis

    The good think is that like Daqo, if it eventually breaks out of this prolonged period of accumulation, there will be little supply left on the market so we can expect the stock to swiftly rally towards its 2014 Highs.
  9. Solar Stocks Technical Analysis

    Hello Jetmoney, I had a look at the chart and it looks horrific, there´s no way I would touch a stock that makes lower lows year after year. There is no financial syndicate supporting it, otherwise price wouldn´t be plunging as it keeps doing. I would advise you to stay away from it. As for myself, I am fully invested into Solar, I don´t have any capital left, I just want to see CSIQ finally breaking out so I can let both stocks run and lower my engagement with the market.
  10. Trading Solars

    Took a margin possition on a CFD account in order to add CSIQ to the long term portfolio; 67% DQ 33%CSIQ I am hoping CSIQs sluggish action is just the calm before the breakout, once price moves above 20 I´ll be happy to hold these two for a few years, perhaps with some re-balancing along the way. I believe this will be the century of Solar and of China, but I don´t think panel manufacturing will create the most value. I´m thinking most value will be added by cheap poly (which everyone needs for manufacturing) and professional development of solar farms.
  11. Daqo (DQ)

    If I was looking to enter, technically I would have the following in mind; - 30 Was the last major resistance that was broken and retested successfully last month. It seems extremely unlikely that price would return anywhere near it. - 38 Acted as support post-earnings, a retest seems possible albeit unlikely, given the strenght of the most recent up-wave. -46 is the 50% retracement of the most recent upwave (38-54). A normal correction in a trend is 50% or less, anything beyond that shows some form of weakness. I´d say anything close to 46 is a good buy, however it IS late in the game and any entry will be subject to a fair amount of volatility. On the bright-side I find it a lot easier to cope with volatility if one is confident in the company´s ability to generate future earnings.
  12. Daqo (DQ)

    Thanks H2, i Will study those numbers over the weekend. So from your assessment you consider 70 to be fair value at present and you are selling your entire possition? 0What do you consider fair value in 2019q4 once they have 30,000 toned at 7.5 USD/kg?
  13. Daqo (DQ)

    Yes, but the market is forward looking so if developments progress according to DAQOs expectations (30,000 MT at 7.5$/KG by q4 2019) prices should increase looking for new value right? I mean at 30,000 MT/7.5 $/KG production cost these are the scenarios; Q1 2020; 18$/KG Poly price; 5.6 EPS 16$/KG Poly price; 4.4 EPS 14$/KG Poly price; 3.3 EPS So the market should find equilibrium between 12 EPS and 20 EPS?
  14. Trading Strategy

    Hello Explo, I had a look at your profile but I couldn´t find a section with the securities that make up the composition of your portfolio?
  15. Trading Solars

    This is an interesting point H20, do you have any idea why Wacker is valued at 30 times earnings and DQ only at 6 times earnings?
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