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tupapa

Solar Member
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tupapa last won the day on December 27 2017

tupapa had the most liked content!

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About tupapa

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  • Portfolio %
    100% DQ

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  1. tupapa

    Daqo (DQ)

    Your ignorance and foolishness regarding the poly sector are shocking. Watch out for 120, daqo heading there in the next few months.
  2. tupapa

    Solar News

    Im not the type to blow his own trumpet but the most recent price action in daqo shows such a blatant case of outright manipulation that I feel compelled to point it out once more. Jpmorgan downgrade a 6 PE ratio stock, they then accumulate all the stock issuance, once they are done the stock flies. Watch out for the buy ratings, next stop 120, of course I remain 100% invested.
  3. tupapa

    Solar News

    Daqo doing pretty well so far, the market is tanking but Daqo showing strenght, this is encouraging since it shows buyers are making use of market weakness to load up on Daqo and they are being forced to bid up prices due to the lack of supply. Whether the assessment I made above is correct still remains to be seen, prices moving beyond 72 would confirm the most recent drop upon the release stellar earnings as another instance of blatant, grievous manipulation that characterizes wall street.
  4. tupapa

    Solar News

    I´ve read a number of books, most of them have been a waste of money and time. The best book I´ve ever read and the only one I recommend reading is Richard Wyckoffs Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks, published in the early 1930s, pretty much everything I use for trading is found within its pages. This particular trade is a rather straightforward setup; 42 is approximately the 50% of the most recent long term upwave (20-72), it is holding so buyers are supporting price, hence the probabilities point towards another upwave. If however buyers fail and sellers push prices below this critical 50% ret. level, the stock is in trouble and I don´t wanna be anywhere near it. A part from all this technical stuff, my favourite confirmation for entering a trade is if a brokerage house or reputable institution issues some form of statement. For instance if JP Morgan downgrades a stock (e.g. DAQO), it means they are probably accumulating shares and they are luring retail investors into selling. IT wouldn´t surprise me if the most recent 350 M stock issuance was some form of accumulation by some financial sindicate. 1- They bash the stock upon great earnings, retail investors panick and sell, but somebody buys everything at 42. 2- JP Morgan issues the downgrade to get more traders to panick sell. 3- Daqo issues 350 Million of new stock at 42 and hands it over to some sindicate, perhaps even JP Morgan themselves. 4- There is no more supply, price can continue its merry way upward, JP MORGAN and other sindicates now own a stock they purchased at CIRCA 3.5 PE
  5. tupapa

    Solar News

    I forgot to answer your question. My definition oh holding a level is at least 1 hour of price not being pushed back into the range, i.e. an hour of price either moving beyond or hovering near the level (in this case 48) i
  6. tupapa

    Solar News

    I'm back in 100%, stop loss at 42.
  7. tupapa

    Solar News

    I will re-enter my 100% Daqo possition if price breaks and holds 48. There has been some blatant manipulation lately. For me, the green light was JP Morgans downgrade to 41, which most likely means JP Morgan and other investment institutions are accumulating stocks for the next leg up.
  8. tupapa

    Daqo (DQ)

    Sold 3/4 of my position, I am without words, something is broken here, and I have no idea what it is. Best earnings ever and stock plunges this much, it gotta be insiders selling, someone knows something..
  9. tupapa

    Daqo (DQ)

    http://daqo.gotoip1.com/Public/Uploads/11195537475a96862edfd47.pdf "The fourth quarter of 2017 was an excellent quarter for Daqo New Energy in terms of both operational and financial performance, which concluded our fiscal year of 2017 as the best year in the Company’s history. Is anybody else into Fractals? The attached chart shows a pattern that´s I´ve been pondering over for some time.
  10. tupapa

    Daqo (DQ)

    It's happened, Daqo reporting 3.16 EPS in Q4, this is 50% more EPS in Q4 than FSLR in FY17. Conservatively we could price daqo at 2x fslr which would coincidence with my target of 120 usd albeit a more reasonable target would be 3-4x fslr. This specialty the case then fslr PE ratio of 25 vs Daqo PE ratio of circa 6.
  11. tupapa

    Daqo (DQ)

    It is pretty clear from my post that I was comparing it with GCL Poly, which is in a bit of a pickle regarding debt. In any case I am bored of this discussion, Daqo holders are making more money than any other stock holders barring SEDG. I advise readers to place at least some of their Solar Manufacturers capital in Daqo, big gains ahead as EPS continue to improve! Its a good idea to move capital out of loss-making government subsidized companies to the most competitive ones, in this respect Daqo remains unrivaled.
  12. tupapa

    Daqo (DQ)

    I like GCL Poly but they are already debt burdened, and they will have to take on even more debt to build all the new capacity that you are forecasting. Daqo is virtually debt free and they are making circa 10 EPS, and they are on track to increase production and keep reducing costs. By all means if you like GCL go ahead and invest in it, it is a much better bet than all panel producers that are publicly traded, but DAQOs finances are so much better, and the market is responding accordingly. In the last two years Daqo is up 233% vs 6.56% GCL Poly, it is always best to buy the leaders than the laggers.
  13. tupapa

    Daqo (DQ)

    Thanks for the info, GCL are a great company but they still have to deliver consistent cost reduction and capacity expansion plus debt reduction. If you want to invest in them by all means do so, I almost split my investment between daqo and gcl a few months ago. Its certainly seems like s much safer investment than FSLR, but I'd recommend you buy Daqo since they are virtually debt free and have a much better track record.
  14. tupapa

    Daqo (DQ)

    Personally I wouldn´t touch FSLR with a ten foot pole. If you look at its historical valuation it only begun moving north with trump talks about a solar wall and later with the tariffs, I try to stay away from companies that require the aid of government to make proffits for long term investments. Daqo is another story, consistent revenue growth, cost depreciation and capacity increase year after year, the market is only beginning to recognize this.
  15. tupapa

    Daqo (DQ)

    Is this another round of slandering (Like DAQOs CEO stepping down for cooking the books) or do you have some actual facts to back up your claims? I mean I understand it must be frustrating to hold FSLR for years making no money and watch Daqo go up 200% in 7 months but you still have time to get on board the Daqo train before it shoots of post earnings release, after FSLRs reported loss DAQO might be on track to make more EPS in Q4 than FSLR in the entire FY17 :D
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