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Solar Investor
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Everything posted by solarpete

  1. Good news: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/daqo-energy-begins-pilot-production-080000451.html Some relevant quotes: "In addition, with greater economies of scale, higher manufacturing efficiency, and cutting-edge equipment and process, we expect the total cost of polysilicon production at our Xinjiang facilities to decrease to approximately US$6.80/kg in the first quarter of 2020." "We have seen that mono-crystalline solar technology is rapidly expanding market share and accounting for an increasingly significant portion of capacity expansion projects of our solar wafer customers. We believe that mono technology will account for over 80% of the global PV market by the end of 2020. The supply of ultra-high-quality mono-grade polysilicon still lags behind the growing demand. As a result, mono-grade polysilicon is being sold at a significant premium over multi-grade polysilicon."
  2. It's still a nice buy (for trading purposes). Significantly below the level of last earnings, which were excellent, when this earnings and the outlook should both still be stellar. At the very least, it should trade back to the level of last earnings, if not above.
  3. Ah, I missed that! Yes, that is indeed an explanation.
  4. Nice read. A good reminder, as we're in another of these recurring phases where solars just go down day after day, on no news, as if no one would ever make any money on solar ever again and all solar companies are headed to bankruptcy.
  5. You continue to interpret any ASP decrease as all bad news for manufacturers. If that were true, then the entire solar industry has had nothing but bad news since its inception decades ago. Instead, the opposite is true--the steady decrease in the cost of the technology over time has driven exponential growth in the industry, not caused its overall demise. ASP decreases are good for the overall adoption of solar by the general public by lowering end consumer costs. In that respect, ASP decreases are good for manufacturers by driving demand. ASP decreases are bad for manufacturers if they happen so quickly that said manufacturers cannot adapt by lowering costs at the same pace. But if ASPs decrease gradually enough so as to allow manufacturers to maintain margins while driving end user demand, then such ASP decreases are actually good for everyone--consumers, manufacturers, and investors! So what we should be watching for is data on margins for those manufacturers with big markets in China. If the margins contract while the ASPs decrease, your concern is justified. If the margins hold steady, then those manufacturers will actually prosper as their volumes increase due to increased demand due to the lower ASPs. Last not least, those decreasing ASPs are also bad news for your beloved FSLR, as it increases price competition in general.
  6. I actually wish you, and all FSLR stockholders, nothing but the best. What I am pointing out is that so far, their production rollout HAS had delays. That to me raises the likelihood such delays can continue. It's simple extrapolation from the past, which may or may not be correct. But it has nothing to do with "wishful thinking."
  7. I don't even begin to try to figure out their accounting practices. But I do trust that as globally listed companies, those practices are not fraudulent. I'm frequently intrigued by the differences between GAAP and non-GAAP figures, though, which can be quite large, as in this case.
  8. Which is precisely why I prefer DQ over FSLR, while you see exactly the reverse. Interesting. In any case, the point is not which one of us is right and which one is wrong on which stock, if either, is overpriced based on its fundamentals. My point in starting this thread was just to poke a bit of fun at your incessant needling of any solar name besides FSLR, while making excuse after excuse for FSLR's continued current lack of profits.
  9. The difference between GAAP and non-GAAP? You're quoting the GAAP figure only.
  10. The TTM is only irrelevant IF you believe the company will actually deliver those expectations. If they do, great, but again, those expectations are ALREADY priced in, so further upside is likely limited. If they don't.... Now remind me again, when was S6 originally supposed to have been fully ramped? You're right about DQ's price, but you forget I do NOT hold them for long-term gain. I TRADE them, almost daily, because of their volatility. I wouldn't mind at all if they came back down to $30/share, as long as they keep fluctuating +/- 1 dollar/day. If FSLR were more volatile, I might consider them a trading vehicle, too, but there I have to put too much skin in the game for too little return, at least as compared to DQ.
  11. That is EXACTLY correct! And as I pointed out in my previous reply to Klothilde just now, while FSLR may be more stable, it's also richly priced right now compared to the CN crowd. So that stability comes at a price, which limits potential gains. So it boils down to your personal investing strategy as to which names are "bad" stocks and which are "good" ones. "Bad" or "good" in this case simply reflect the suitability of a given stock to a given strategy.
  12. Really? Solars don't trade like other tech stocks. Average P/E for Chinese solars is around 6-7. Double that to account for FSLR being a US company and give them a 15 P/E. That means at their current price, they SHOULD be earning $4 yearly EPS. Yahoo shows their TTM EPS is 0.23, with a current P/E of 276. So they will have to increase earnings TWENTY-FOLD in one year to go from 0.20 to 4.00. That's what's "baked in" ALREADY. You don't think that's "terrific" enough? I certainly do!
  13. That's exactly right. FSLR is currently fully priced expecting great results in the next year. If those results come in as expected, great, but I don't see the share price rising much more, BECAUSE those results are already priced in. (Or at least if it rises, it will be due to momentum, not fundamentals.) If, on the other hand, those results are less than expected, the share price will certainly decrease, perhaps crater. But that cash in the bank provides FSLR investors a certain safety net--even with continued poor profits for a few more quarters, the financial viability of the company is not in question. Without it, FSLR is the risk equivalent of TSLA. The criticism of JKS and CSIQ misses my point, however. No matter what the motivation of company leadership, their RESULTS have indeed been better than FSLR the past couple of quarters. That is simply undeniable. So if you want to criticize them, management intention is one avenue, although if memory serves, FSLR has done its share of misleading investors in the past--but poo-pooing their results simply invites the obvious comparison I made. All IMHO as well, of course.
  14. Will you ever say something positive about any stock BUT FSLR?
  15. In other words, better than FSLR--again.
  16. Yeah, I'm nervous as a cat trading them at this level. I keep expecting a sharp drop that so far has not come. So I keep buying back as I keep trading small lots for small gains. But I'm too chicken to establish large trading positions at these prices. Here actually I would have been better off if I'd just bought and held. It just goes to show--there is no single ideal trading strategy.
  17. Exactly. Klothilde's been forecasting gloom and doom for CSIQ, JKS, and DQ for years now. Yet miraculously, they've not only survived, but two of them (CSIQ and DQ) are solidly rebounding. (We'll see about JKS.) I'm beginning to look forward to those negative comments about CSIQ and DQ--every time she puts one out, their share price goes up! Chuckle....
  18. Hmm... I don't know. While the volume is certainly small compared to other names, it's nearly twice their daily average. But still no news I can see anywhere. Apparently just a (relatively) large position being established. Hey, one man's junk is another man's treasure--that volatility that gives you ulcers "puts bread in my jar," as Billy Joel would say (chuckle)! But I think I'll be careful about establishing too many new trading positions until I know if this new level will hold, or if we back off into the high 40s again.
  19. OK, anybody got any idea what's going on with DQ today? Not that I'm complaining, mind you (grin)....
  20. I'll quote your own words back to you: "Could happen. Or the opposite could happen."
  21. Exactly. It doesn't have to happen in the next 3-6 months, and the more (little) ups and downs along the way, the better (for me, anyway). Heck, I make money if the stock price stays the same, as long as it continues these daily swings of +/- 1-dollar-plus. Just as long as it doesn't crater at some point. Good point about possibly needing more financing soon, though. I'll be sure to keep some powder dry if there's a significant pullback because of that.
  22. As I recall, the press release quoted increasing volumes (to record levels) and maintaining margins. That's the recipe for increasing profits. You don't need to earn it all in one quarter (aren't you the one who keeps reminding me the market is forward-looking?)--just maintain that trend for several quarters in a row. Q3 sounds like they'll be off to a great start. That trend also means I can buy any dips with confidence, as their underlying fundamentals are improving. That confidence is a key part of my frequent-trading strategy.
  23. Fortunately, in science we learn even from those experiments that fail. I'm still waiting for the roof tiles with integrated solar panels. And the windows (yes, that means with translucent solar panels). THOSE will be game changers (again).
  24. Congratulations on your CSIQ trading! I've been using ENPH and DQ, as they're more volatile, but I completely agree about not wanting to be overconcentrated in a single name. You just never know what can happen. But I am truly happy for you that it worked out well! Let's see what JKS reports. CSIQ and DQ certainly paint a rosy picture for the future. Is it possible solar is FINALLY on the way to SUSTAINABLE profits and growth?
  25. Last quarter could have been better, but it certainly was not as bad as some feared. And the outlook for the next quarter is great!! I'm happy. I'll be buying (and trading) any dips. Executed the first one yesterday and today already.
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