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Solar Investor
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Everything posted by solarpete

  1. Yeah, that's a distinct possibility. But if it does, I'll certainly be increasing my trading positions again!
  2. Maybe it's because you've been saying the same thing for what--10 years now?
  3. That would explain the sudden surge in the stock price. Wonder if it will hold, or fall back before earnings. Earnings, of course, should tell the tale.
  4. That's quite sad news. Australia is on the front lines of suffering the consequences of climate change, yet their government truly has its head up its @ss regarding their energy policy. Maybe if it was the PM's house that burned down, he and his cronies would get a clue....
  5. Agreed. And right now, DQ's SP is absolutely BURYING FSLR's. Anybody got any idea what's driving this sudden tremendous surge? I actually fear this is overdone, without confirmation of stellar earnings for last quarter and robust guidance for next.
  6. Awesome!! Non-competitive legacy capability being taken off the market. Great news for the current cost leaders like DQ!
  7. I appreciate the word of caution, but you are neglecting some mitigating factors. They are expanding their efforts to penetrate the European residential market. For example, just this morning they announced they just signed a new cooperation deal with a roof manufacturer in Germany to provide in-roof PV components. So they know they don't want to stay US-centric. Also, the US residential market will continue to grow, as other states pass mandates similar to the California one requiring PV installations on new residential housing. And not all inverters are created the same. Yes, the Chinese can come in with cheaper units. But will they have the same connectivity as the Enphase ones (where the ASICs are heavily patented)? That would require patent infringement or other intellectual property theft--certainly something China is known for, but nevertheless something they'd have to retro-engineer first, and that takes time. Finally, a currently completely overlooked market is their completely off-the-grid solution for rural areas in undeveloped countries (Africa, India outside the cities). That, too, is coming, and is completely separate from their offerings for the developed rooftop market. So the question becomes, how much farther do they have to run? And here the honest answer is, of course, no one knows. But currently, their prospects are good. They've proven their technology, and they have a head start on the competition. I can easily see the stock eventually heading to $100+, based on their expanding into the European and off-grid markets. If they pull that off (and that's their plan), they'll have the profits to justify that share price. If they don't, they won't, and I will be monitoring the news for any indications those markets are not growing as expected. And of course, there will undoubtedly be pullbacks along the way. So I am not a blind cheerleader for the stock. Indeed, I have just today taken profits in it again, and currently own only one small trading position (in case they continue to go higher before pulling back). (My trading approach actually has me holding only small amounts of a stock at its all-time high, as that's the time it's most vulnerable to quick reversals.) But I am certainly ready to pounce and aggressively buy any pullbacks, even small ones. As you say, Q4 results and FY20 guidance will be key. And I anticipate both will be excellent. For the next 12 months, at least, I think this stock will continue to be a trader's dream, with frequent fluctuations around a steadily increasing stock price due to increasing profits from expanding markets. After that, who knows? Perhaps the trend will continue. Perhaps not, and it will be time to look for another trading stock. But for now, the sun is out, and it's time to make hay!
  8. When the world is paved with solar panels? DQ up 14% this morning. The market obviously does not fear competition for them at this time.
  9. And as they gain market share, so does ENPH, which makes their microinverters. Sweet!!
  10. What if they guide lower you guys?
  11. Agreed. Right product, being brought to market at the right time, and most importantly, by a management team that knows how to MAKE MONEY off the situation! No "profitless prosperity" for these guys. Mind you, there's been good money to be made in DQ recently as well....
  12. What a lovely problem to have! Congratulations!!
  13. ENPH, the gift that keeps on giving. Thanks to them, I'm paying my house off 4 years early.
  14. Yes, and the article also says the resulting shortages will probably lead to (albeit temporary) price INCREASES for solar supply chain components. Of course, the question is how much do volumes get reduced, but higher prices will offset that. In short, we simply don't know what the final effect will be at this time, especially because we DON'T KNOW how much of the CN workforce is actually idled. But there's absolutely no reason to automatically assume total gloom-and-doom.
  15. I'd say how good the news is depends on the answers to these relevant questions: What will be the cost to switch manufacturing to this process? And how long will it take? (Assuming they decide to make this switch.)
  16. Yes, unless you can afford to employ an army of accountants and lawyers, I find it's just not worth trying to get too fancy with the taxes. No doubt it's worth it for Amazon and Microsoft, but not for me. (Plus, from a purely sociopolitical point of view, I completely agree with treating ALL income equally for tax purposes, whether from manual wage labor, interest, or investment/trading. Not doing so leads to the current economic division in our society, which in turn leads to social division and unrest. Eventually, that social unrest can become outright upheaval, which ruins the business climate for everyone, so even the ones at the top suffer under that scenario. But I digress....) The margin interest deduction is nice, though, acting in effect as a business expense deduction even though I don't own a business. I was afraid that would get killed by the recent tax overhaul, but fortunately, it didn't.
  17. Strictly as an individual. Don't know enough to try as a business. Had some shares in a natural gas trust a few years ago, and they were partially treated as a return of capital and some as capital gains. It was only a few hundred bucks, but it was a NIGHTMARE to try to figure out how to treat them for tax purposes. One IRS publication just references another, and none of them made any sense. I don't think I ever did declare them correctly (never could figure it out), but I declared them at the highest tax rate possible just to be safe. And the IRS never questioned the return, but as I said, that item was only a few hundred bucks, and that's not worth their time to investigate. So nowadays I stick to simple stocks and just suck it up and pay my short-term cap gains (same as ordinary income). No fancy tax strategies for me. If I have a high tax bill, I console myself with the fact that means I made a nice chunk of change basically pulling money out of thin air (which is what trading really is). And I can account for my tax return down to the last penny, without an accountant.
  18. Exactly! When you're fully invested in a stock, and it starts to decline (but no negative news has come out--yet), how do you know it's the beginning of a collapse vs. a head fake? Especially in stocks as volatile as our solars? I find this strategy actually lets me sleep much better at night, knowing the damage from even a major market collapse would be smaller than the buying opportunity that would present--and that I would have the buying power to take advantage of that opportunity. When my stocks are at their highs, I actually find myself wishing for them to pull back a little, so I can justify increasing my exposure to them (chuckle)….
  19. Yes, that is correct--or at least no worse than the same risk. Here's how I implement that: I try to have only a SMALL position in a stock near its high. If it pulls back a little, but there is no negative news for the stock, I'll buy another small position. Ditto one more time--then if it goes down for a fourth day, I stop buying until I see the price stabilize and start to come back a little. Our solars are volatile enough that they'll usually bounce back and forth between small losses and small gains in any series of 3 consecutive trading days. Say the third position I bought (the one at the lowest price) goes back up a bit. I'll sell it and take that profit. If the stock now continues to rise, I still have the first and second positions in play. If it drops again, I'll rebuy that third position, but again stop there. If now the stock drops dramatically, of course I have losses in those 3 small positions--but I DON'T have the loss I would have if I had taken a full position. Which means I have buying power if and when I determine it's (reasonably) safe to re-enter the stock. And when I do, it's with more small positions, trading them to gradually take small profits until the stock reaches its prior level--when I still have those 3 original positions, which now come into play again. It does require a fair amount of initial investment capital to be able to establish that number of small positions in a number of stocks (I use about 5 or 6)--but then again, when I read you have some 120 assets in your approach, I'm quite sure my account is much smaller than yours. And I use margin--I find my gains usually more than outpace the margin interest I pay (which is tax-deductible from my gains). Of course, when using margin it's hugely important to avoid catastrophic losses leading to margin calls, which is another reason I developed this strategy. So by not owning much of a stock near its highs, but owning more and more of it at lower levels at a time when there is no negative news out about the stock, I've convinced myself that the more of a stock I own, the smaller the short-term risk.
  20. Yes, most gains come from just a few trading days--but as you note, so do most losses. So that "pairing to avoid losses" you mention is also a critical aspect. And as you say, it's almost impossible to know when those big moves come. So I am willing to accept missing out on the big gains, if I can also avoid the big losses (since in the past those losses have always more than wiped out my gains), and just be happy taking small gains consistently (even in times when other strategies yield larger gains), and letting time work in my favor. So far, that's worked for me--I did take some losses in that November collapse, but not nearly as much as I would have under my earlier strategy, and I've already recovered them again almost completely, thus preserving my gains for the year overall (instead of losing them all, which I most likely would have done under my earlier strategy). But while the long-term trend still should be solidly upward, this year looks like it could be quite choppy in solarland, so I have to stay nimble and not get sucked into positions that are too large when prices are high (which is always a temptation when prices are going up quickly).
  21. That's still quite a flurry there right at the end of the year. It shows the Chinese CAN execute large numbers in a short period of time if they want to. Now the question becomes, how much that was planned but not executed last year gets carried over into this year, instead of cancelled outright. And that seems to be an open question. As the article notes, estimates for China next year are from 20 GW to 40 GW. That's quite a difference. The rest of the world, however, seems to be moving full speed ahead, so we're no longer hostage to Chinese governmental policy. They can be a hindrance, or icing on the cake, but they no longer dictate our fate.
  22. Interesting. A few years ago, I read an opinion that was exactly the opposite--that person said "every minute your money is in the market, it's at risk of loss due to an unexpected event." They advocated finding a situation where an imminent upward move was likely for a given stock, riding that move for a small gain, then selling to take that small profit. Then go look for another such situation--possibly a continuation with the same stock, but not necessarily. The rationale is to be in any given stock only for a short period of time, to avoid a huge loss when unexpected news hits, unless you're unlucky enough to have such news hit while you're in your short trading window with that stock. Having suffered several such "unexpected events" in my 10-year experiment with buy-and-hold, I found his logic compelling, and constructed my current frequent-trading-of-small-lots-for-small-gains approach from it. And that approach worked very well last year (return well over 100%, even with the collapse in November). Interesting to hear that a quite different (if not exact opposite) approach also produced excellent results. Seems to indicate my success wasn't necessarily due to anything superior in my approach--perhaps more of a "rising tide lifting all boats?"
  23. Today DQ finally blew past FSLR's stock price and held its lead into the closing. Interesting run as of late. No news to speak of, and volume is average. But the sustained uptrend has been going on for a month now--AND we're closing in on 5- and 10-year highs. Looks like the market is certainly expecting good news for the next earnings report. It will be interesting to see if that optimism is validated.
  24. Oh boy--where have I heard THIS song before????
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