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Everything posted by solarpete

  1. "Aye, and if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a wagon!" You're saying a company's share price is likely to drop if they forecast a loss, which could happen if their sales fall. Well, of course! That's true for ANY company. The point is you're saying "that COULD happen"--without assigning a likelihood to that event. I can equally confidently prognosticate that their share price will rise if they guide for increased profits in Q1. But what good is my forecast if I don't assign it a probability? So, what do you think is the LIKELIHOOD CSIQ guides for a loss in Q1? I know you were looking for it in the past. Still think it'll happen?
  2. Here's a tidbit about the China curtailment issue: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-supergrid-faces-one-major-200000647.html
  3. Yeah, that's what I thought ten years ago.... But I like your optimism this time around.
  4. That is the hope for all of us, no matter what particular solar name(s) we're in.
  5. For solars, I most emphatically think the market does NOT look that far out. In the past, any headwinds, even if small and temporary, have usually translated into falling stock prices, even if the longer-term outlook remained positive. For your sake, I hope you're right that 2020 earnings will be much better than 2019. But realistically, I think it will be closer to 2020 before the stock price reflects that expectation.
  6. Unfortunately, I think you're right. But take heart--I think you DO trade with your position? You should be able to make at least some profit doing that over the next year. Barring some unforeseen cataclysm, they'll make that 2.50 in earnings. So when the price drops a little, buy a little more, then sell it when it goes back up a little. In other words, trade the fluctuations in small batches. It's unlikely you'll get caught holding the bag on trading shares bought at any given level, as I don't think their price will collapse dramatically. So any small drop should eventually be followed by a small rise. I've done this quite successfully for several years now, with virtually all the names in the solar space (yes, even with a few shares of FSLR). Over time, those small gains DO add up. And it at least gives me the illusion of doing SOMETHING while I'm waiting for the solar industry to get its act together, business-wise.
  7. Results are out. Midpoint of guided 2019 earnings = 2.50. That's a P/E of 20 at today's stock price. 20! Really? For a solar?? Even for a non-Chinese one, that's pretty rich. If you trade around your FSLR position, fine. But for a buy-and-hold, it looks like dead money at best for a year, with the distinct possibility of a decline from here.
  8. Did you do a similar analysis for CSIQ for quarters past? What were the results? Yahoo Finance shows them with quarterly earnings of 1.00, 0.70, 0.20, and 1.10 for 4Q17, 1Q18, 2Q18, and 3Q18 respectively. Did your calculations come close? If not, it means you need to rethink your assumptions.
  9. Yes, it's hard to believe solars have spent TEN YEARS (and counting) wandering in the financial wilderness, so to speak. Back then, I certainly thought I'd be financially independent by now. Well, let's see what the next 10 years bring (chuckle)!
  10. Your word in God's ear! That would pretty much restore my portfolio to previous highs....
  11. Yeah, while I certainly don't take the quantified approach you do, the recent surge in all solars certainly has my portfolio looking better, too! As is the case, I presume (or at least hope) for all of us....
  12. Why do we have to "spin" anything? This is a board for factual discussion.
  13. Not so horrible, although aggravating. The basic problem is, China can build new solar projects faster than it can connect them to its grid. Generally, that's a good problem to have. The transmission issues will be solved--China has separate initiatives to address those. In the meantime, this is just more proof that the trend is towards more solar, not less.
  14. Interesting that their operations in China are seeing greater demand.
  15. This after the price is already at 20.50 and the company just released positive news on volumes and margins. Yes, nothing like "breaking news" (the headline on the web page) stating the obvious. I keep wondering, who PAYS these guys to do "analysis" like this? Of course, as a former meteorologist (and worse, "space weather" forecaster), I know all about being a paid liar. But the accuracy of my forecasts aside (grin), at least I put them out BEFORE the events in question had already happened....
  16. Maybe. But more likely it's just profit-taking from the huge run we've had over the past few weeks. At least I hope it's just that....
  17. I trust statements from companies and their CEOs as far as I can throw them. I've been burned NUMEROUS times by companies explicitly stating they would NOT do x, y, or z, only to have them turn around and do EXACTLY that, sometimes only a week later! Having said that, there is no doubt something optimistic is afoot in the solar space. (Have you looked at DQ lately?) No reason FSLR shouldn't share in that general optimism.
  18. Bite your tongue!! (On that go-private offering....)
  19. Hopefully not for a buyout at 18.60! Chuckle....
  20. SWEET!!!! So prices are expected to rise, while everyone keeps cutting costs. Means margins will inflate. And with over 100 GW being installed worldwide year after year, volume is no problem. Good volume + increasing margins = good profit growth! Could we finally be on the verge of turning the corner--permanently?! The optimism in this article certainly explains the rise in share prices we've seen across the board recently. Think I'll keep my still-underwater positions in CSIQ, JKS, and DQ a bit longer.
  21. And DQ is recovering as well, up day after day on higher than average volume. I haven't seen any news, but it sure looks like someone is building a position.
  22. That's insanely cheap! Let storage (battery) technology keep improving as well, and the end of fossil fuel power generation is in sight. Volume at least should explode. Now let's just hope panel manufacturers can keep at least around 10% margins on their operations. Otherwise, it's more profitless prosperity.
  23. Holy cow!! You ARE your own fund at this point.
  24. Quick follow-up, as I just saw Explo's post in Solar News about the JASO relisting. Looks like they sold out for 360M here, then sold themselves to a new buyer in China for 1.1B. So they're being valued over there more than twice what they were valued here. Hardly "cratering."
  25. Have they? I haven't tried looking up prices on the Chinese market. But it would be good to know the incentive to stiff US shareholders is gone. I still hope both TSL and JASO go belly-up over there. Not that I'm vengeful (chuckle).... If you've been keeping up with the solar sector press, you know the impact of 5/31 isn't nearly as bad as was initially feared. I respect your opinion, but it is just that--your opinion, and one that is not shared by people paid to analyze this sector in detail. (Not that their prognostications are necessarily much better.) And yes, 18 is a good price now. But 2019 is forecast to be BETTER than 2018. So prices should get even better in 2019. All also just in MY opinion, of course.
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