Jump to content

solarpete

Solar Investor
  • Content Count

    589
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    38

Everything posted by solarpete

  1. solarpete

    Solar News

    It's a question of what Qu values more: his reputation or his wallet. I'm sure the JA Solar company officers made a killing with their move. Now I sincerely hope Qu does NOT try the same thing (I'd lose a chunk of change on the shares I still hold from higher prices), but I'm actually surprised he didn't follow through on his rather weak effort last year. The temptation is certainly there. Let's hope Qu's pride continues to overrule his greed. But I've learned most of the time, in situations like this, greed eventually wins.
  2. solarpete

    Solar News

    And you'll probably see still more. I've seen up to half a dozen in one day. But never any follow-up that anyone was actually held accountable. I HAVE received small settlement checks from class action lawsuits in the past, but not from any that were splashed across the headlines like this. The amounts were tiny (a few cents per share), and the settlements explicitly said the company did not admit any wrongdoing, which meant no company officers faced any retribution.
  3. solarpete

    Solar News

    While I understand (and, as a former [albeit small] JASO stockholder, share) the sentiment, I wouldn't put too much stock into this announcement (pun intended). First, since the guilty parties are all in China, I don't know if a US court has any jurisdiction over them. Second, Pomerantz are ambulance chasers. I've seen their name in dozens of headlines. A company will announce bad news one day, and the next half a dozen of these guys all announce lawsuits, including Pomerantz. I have never once heard of such a suit actually being successful. So this may be a Pyrrhic victory at best....
  4. solarpete

    Solar News

    Fair enough. DQ's numbers ARE rosy compared to the energytrend ones (the energytrend article predicts 111 GW in 2019). But as has previously been noted on this forum, past forecasts have been overly negative. It's not that large a spread from 111 to 120 (the lower end of the DQ range). I would not be at all surprised to see 2019 turn in a performance around 120 GW. (140--now that's a stretch.) Finally, the overall outlook painted by the energytrend article is quite positive. I especially liked this bit (from Trend #3 in the article): "Although the whole PV supply chain suffered from low margin and oversupply in 2018, the Tier 1 companies still reported strong operating results driven by their advanced technology, competitive cost structure, and wide coverage. Most of their capacity expansion plans can still be put into practice." Sounds good to me!
  5. solarpete

    Solar News

    What growth numbers would make you happy? The article says 2018 was not as bad as expected--newly added PV capacity GREW by 4.9% YoY, when in spring (when the new China policy was first announced) everyone was predicting declines. For 2019, the article predicts FURTHER GROWTH of 7.7% YoY. It's not double-digit growth, but it's in the face of the continued US-China trade war, and continued US efforts to slow renewables deployment, at least at the federal level. I'll take that forecast over last spring's any day.... Grid parity is a gradual process, happening at different times in different places. It's not a sudden global transition. It's already happened in my part of the US (the southwest). Utilities that used to refuse to even discuss the possibility of building solar and wind facilities are now shutting down coal plants early and replacing them with solar and wind. It looks like we're on a slow and steady uptrend at this point. That brings predictability, which markets usually like. I prefer that over the boom-and-bust cycles of the past.
  6. solarpete

    Solar News

    Great! These guys haven't made a profit since 2012. They are dead weight. This consolidation is a good thing!
  7. solarpete

    Solar News

    The article states: "The company said the transaction [the sale] is part of its plan to maintain production capacity with fewer wafer manufacturing facilities.... The plan is intended to support construction of a 60,000 tonne polysilicon production plant in Qitai county, in China's remote Xinjiang region which, according to the company, has now started trial production." There's enough disinformation in our public discourse these days. Let's keep it out of this board.
  8. solarpete

    Solar News

    New year, same old Klothilde (chuckle). As usual, you have to take her headlines with a grain of salt. The article says they're shifting manufacturing from high-cost to low-cost locations. So while they're selling one unit, they're actually building another one, because they intend to "maintain production capacity". Not the attitude of a company expecting to go belly-up any time soon. Also, this shift is expected to "greatly improve" their profitability next year. Finally, last year's losses were partly due to increased finance costs and exchange losses, as well as lower wafer ASPs. While lower ASPs are industry-wide, the other two factors are company-specific. So yes, last year was challenging. But they see brighter days ahead.
  9. solarpete

    Solar News

    It bodes well for all solar manufacturers. Slowly but surely, the drop in prices is building the groundswell across the globe. Of course, it's best for high-margin manufacturers.
  10. solarpete

    Daqo (DQ)

    A better question is, when will this general market slide finally end? It's taking down every solar stock. CSIQ, JKS, RUN, and ENPH had recovered somewhat from the summer selloff--now everything's heading right back into the toilet, although the market conditions for those companies haven't changed. Between Trump and his dysfunctional Congress (tariffs, shutdowns, etc.), this good economy is being completely wasted for investors. We should be up nicely for the year based on economic conditions. Instead, because the Prez can't keep his mouth shut and Congress can't do their job, every day it's down another 1-2%. Sigh....
  11. solarpete

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Similar to what's going on with ENPH. When they start "showing the money," the squeeze is going to be epic.
  12. solarpete

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Not much shorting going on--trading volume is too low. Just the usual reaction of a solar stock selling off on what is actually good news. Happens in other names too. Usually the selling stops after a day or so, and the stock then starts to climb. FSLR should do well over the next couple of days (barring another Trumpertantrum tanking the markets again).
  13. solarpete

    First Solar (FSLR)

    I do agree with you there. But that narrow spread is what it's been like for the past several years already--nothing new there. The big event all solar investors are waiting for is grid parity everywhere, which will drive the next explosion in demand, which will drive profits even if the margin is narrow. We'll see about DQ. Yes, there is new capacity coming online. But their energy costs are also dropping 20% in Q1. That should help them remain competitive.
  14. solarpete

    First Solar (FSLR)

    What are you talking about???? The CNs (well, what's left of them--JKS and CSIQ) are actually UP 30-50% off their lows, and holding steady despite the market tanking 400 points/day. Even DQ never hit your predicted teens (although it came darn close), is up 25% from there, and is also not falling back down. It looks to me like "the market" has called a bottom on the CN solars. Barring unexpected bad news, the expected direction is up from here.
  15. solarpete

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Except that Chinese solars haven't traded at valuations equivalent to their US peers in what? Over a decade? Why should that change now? Don't get me wrong--I still have shares from the mid-30s, so I'd love to see these stock prices. But it will have to be from earnings, not an increase in P/E. And that's still 2+ years away.
  16. solarpete

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    What are you talking about?? Having a position in CSIQ from a much higher level, I'm GLAD it didn't go through--I think the share price will go well above $20 in the next 2 years! It was a lowball offer, and I'm glad he didn't get the company on the cheap!
  17. solarpete

    Daqo (DQ)

    With the writedown on their exiting the wafer business, yes. I'm more interested in the results excluding such one-time items--were they still profitable in their core poly business as selling prices declined? And, of course, guidance going forward is key--but that's true of any company in any business.
  18. solarpete

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Define "tank"--at current prices, I'd say it's "tanked" already. I don't think earnings will be that bad for CSIQ, DQ, or JKS--most of their production in any given quarter was usually put under contract long before then, so unless they have issues with contract cancellations, earnings shouldn't be that far off what's expected. The bigger question will be the outlook for margins for the next quarter--that's where you'll see the impact of declining ASPs. And that could be the catalyst for the next wave of selling.
  19. solarpete

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Mark, Relax. Nothing has changed in the big picture. Things are challenging right now. But grid parity everywhere is coming, and with it the age of solar. The China news is added juice. Things will look very different two years from now. The big companies aren't going under. Until then, use the volatility for swing trades if you have the capital and stomach for it. Otherwise, concentrate on the future and ignore the intermediate swings. Qu may come back with a new offer, or maybe he won't. I actually hope he doesn't, as I think CSIQ will be worth more than $18 by 2020. And the longer he puts off any new offer, the more obvious that should become to the Board. But whatever he comes back with, it's got to be more than the current price. So I don't see any benefit in selling right now. Solarpete
  20. solarpete

    Daqo (DQ)

    DQ continues a solid recovery, an overall red market notwithstanding. Still no news. But perhaps something has leaked that their situation is not as dire as some predict? Then again, this stock is so thinly traded, maybe it's just more of their usual volatility.
  21. solarpete

    Daqo (DQ)

    Dang I missed that they had fallen to $20. I would have taken a small position there. No news, but just average volume. And other solars are up on the same lack of news as well. CSIQ absolutely plunged early, only to now be solidly green. Seems like the usual pattern for all solars--down hard every day for an extended period of time, then a little bit of a retracement, then back to the downward slide.
  22. solarpete

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Here's an article underscoring my point. Even city councils and utility commissions are starting to see the renewable light: https://earthjustice.org/news/press/2018/glendale-hits-the-brakes-on-500-mil-gas-fired-power-plant The demand will be there. Solars just need to learn to grow their business sustainably, not through these bimodal boom-bust cycles.
  23. solarpete

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Still better than reporting Friday after Thanksgiving, after the close (wry grin).
  24. solarpete

    Solar News

    Agreed the next few months will be challenging for DQ. My point is it's not JUST DQ, though. It will be challenging for ALL poly producers. And they all KNOW that--and STILL are moving ahead with their expansion plans. So either they're all just plain economically suicidal, or they think there will be a light at the end of that tunnel.
  25. solarpete

    Solar News

    Good point. So you're saying the low-cost producers will still prosper even in a low-demand environment, as the higher-cost producers will eventually be driven out of business (after a period of them selling below cost, as REC apparently did). But that sounds promising for DQ as well.
×