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solarpete

Solar Investor
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Everything posted by solarpete

  1. VERY nice!! Good to remember life in solar land is not all about the next few weeks.
  2. Quick follow-up: I don't know that this is true on this forum. Certainly on the Yahoo message boards. But not here.
  3. I agree completely. And I appreciate your posting various articles that contribute to that understanding. I'd just prefer a little less editorializing--just let the articles speak for themselves.
  4. Yes, it's hard to know what to believe these days. But the article I read is from Zack's, not China, although they do quote Chinese data: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-solar-stocks-set-benefit-142002815.html Here's the quote: "According to China’s National Renewable Energy Centre (CNREC) data, in the first half of 2019, China installed 5.2 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity, reflecting a 40% decline. Naturally, Chinese solar panels and cells manufacturers along with overseas solar players engaged in Chinese projects suffered. The latest subsidy provision is expected to boost profits of these solar players in the coming days. This is because, with the removal of the cap on solar projects, the nation will witness construction of new projects." Zack's is touting Enphase, CSIQ, and JKS. Enphase is a completely separate story, with their emphasis on integrated smart grid technology. And in the past, I've found Zack's to generally be late to the ballgame--by the time they recommend a certain stock, that stock is about ready to head south again. So I wouldn't put too much emphasis on their analysis of CSIQ and JKS. I think the bottom line is, no one knows what's going to happen in the next quarter. Demand SHOULD pick up. But as you point out, ASPs may still decline. But if that decline is no faster than the ongoing decline in costs, margins will remain stable. If so, the increased volume should actually drive profits again. The problem is, that's a lot of "ifs." You can make arguments for a rosy scenario, or a lousy one. We shall see....
  5. Here's the salient sentence from the article: "In terms of the supply and demand in the next few weeks, it is difficult to see an optimistic trend; in the future, the prices will continue to be affected by the market’s supply and demand." First, it's a bit of a stretch to call "difficult to see an optimistic trend" the same as "very bearish." And it's outright fabrication to call it "a giant sucking sound." That's the kind of "interpretation" I expect to see on Fox "News." Second, weren't you the one educating us all on the importance of the long-term outlook to the market earlier this year? So why the sudden concern over the next few weeks? Third, and most importantly, this article was released the same day China announced its new subsidy policy. The data in the article therefore does not include the effect of that new policy. I just read an article on Yahoo Finance that says China is now expected to install 40-45 GW this year, and that they installed only 5 GW the first half. That leaves a huge backlog for the next few months. Give it 30 days for the new policy to take effect, and then let's see what the data shows.
  6. The article doesn't say anything like that. It's like calling a drizzle a deluge.
  7. So that's what's causing the solar selloff across the board. Was wondering what the heck was going on....
  8. I'm with you. I don't understand how people can think like this, and because I can't follow their logic (or rather, lack thereof), I start speculating about their motives. And that's when I, too, steer the conversation elsewhere if it's with someone I care about.
  9. Just one comment: "show me da money!" Talk is cheap, and so is forming caucuses. For starters, stop trying to forcibly extend the life of the coal industry, when consumers don't want it any more. Do that, and you MAY get my attention.
  10. Grid issues are real, but are being addressed. Just google "China DC Power Transmission." Here's just one example of a recent hit: https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/the-smarter-grid/chinas-state-grid-corp-crushes-power-transmission-records More such lines are coming, but it takes time to build and integrate them.
  11. The CONSEQUENCE of the Black Swan is in the 20-F, not the likelihood of the event itself occurring. Certainly no one is immune (learned that lesson the hard way with LDK). But if the possibility that something MAY go wrong with any given company keeps you from investing in that company, then you'll never invest at all. There are plenty of things that MAY go wrong for your beloved FSLR, too. It's a question of judging the risk and managing it appropriately. I certainly wouldn't put all my money into JKS (or into any one solar, or any one company--again, lesson learned the hard way), but I think the risk is acceptable for occasional trading.
  12. Yes, I've been frantically trading them as well, but I'm now being very careful to not accumulate too many trading positions at these prices--at least not before earnings. Their long-term potential is staggering, but I also wonder how long it will be before a competitor emerges. I'm sure they have patents on their ASICs, but inverter physics is well-known, as is the concept of an adaptive "smart" device, meaning they don't have a moat to completely eliminate competition. They need to make as much money as possible NOW, while they still have the playing field to themselves. (And by "now" I mean the next 2-3 years--that's how long it would probably take for a serious competitor to conduct their research & development and to emerge as a major market supplier.) So the good times should continue for a while, but I don't know about world domination (chuckle)....
  13. What if an asteroid wipes out the entire planet tomorrow? (Well, realistically, it would have to be a comet, coming from the far side of the Sun, giving us maybe a couple of weeks of warning. An asteroid would be known well in advance.) My point is that's a Black Swan event. Yes, they happen, which is one major reason for diversifying one's portfolio. But you can't base your investments on them. Or if you do, well, good luck to you.
  14. It's certainly been quite the wonderful ride so far, but now I wonder if we haven't come too far, too fast. Unless earnings are absolutely stellar, I think they can easily retrench 25% or more. In which case I will gladly buy more, as I do believe in their long-term promise. It's just going to take more than 3 months to get there.
  15. A valid concern, but certainly not a new one.
  16. OK, thanks. I wasn't able to listen to the call. I wonder where the bottom is on ASP for the industry? As long as it keeps going down, manufacturers are going to struggle to produce significant profits. But with grid parity now either already reached (in sunny places) or within reach (elsewhere), I would think prices should stabilize, as we're no longer competing with fossil fuels. (Or rather, we're winning that competition based on price alone--the lack of pollution is just an added bonus.) And once prices stabilize, THEN increasing volumes should go straight to the bottom line. Any prognostications on when that might be?
  17. I think they have a decent shot at those $0.25 for Q2. They guided 10% increase in shipments, and I did not see any guidance for decreasing margins. Quite the contrary, the press release said the factors causing the recent increase in margin (greater percentage of sales from higher-efficiency, therefore higher-priced products and reduction in cost to manufacture) are still ongoing. They made $0.15 this quarter, beating expectations. If they made money this quarter, expect to ship more next quarter, and don't expect margins to decrease, I certainly don't see them backsliding in EPS. Are we ever going to get back to $1/quarter? We're certainly still a long way from that.
  18. NICE!! That's a lotta panels. And notice that key adjective "unsubsidized." If you're still wondering "where's the grid parity"--this is it!
  19. Yes, most of my gains this year have come from ENPH. A great story!
  20. You mean to fighting climate change. Somehow, I don't think it will ALL go to FSLR (chuckle.
  21. Congrats--good move! Held my trading shares as well. Will sell a few more around $22-23 if it gets that high.
  22. I didn't know China was even a player in CdTe tech. I thought FSLR was already pretty much a monopoly for that tech.
  23. Because as you've pointed out to all of us before, ''the market is forward-looking''?
  24. Still holding the positions I bought years ago at much higher prices (Mark, I hear you about a lousy trade--sigh!), but I did sell my current trading positions during the recent pop to 21. But if there is a significant drop after earnings, I will certainly refill my trading positions then. Trading this ongoing volatility is really working. I'm in the green for the fourth year in a row now, and this year has been especially good--I've already made as much year to date as I did all of last year. So now I have a ton of buying power, should solars collapse again. For the first time, I'm actually looking forward to a price drop! So let the earnings fiascos begin (wry grin). I don't mean to brag--God knows I've made enough lousy trades over the years. But it looks like I've finally stumbled onto something here. Something about blind squirrels and nuts.... GLTA!
  25. No estimate from me (I don't have the time to do the detailed research you and other posters here do--which is why I like this forum), but $0.56 sounds pretty good to me. I'd be pleased with that.
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