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Solar Investor
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Everything posted by solarpete

  1. Still holding the positions I bought years ago at much higher prices (Mark, I hear you about a lousy trade--sigh!), but I did sell my current trading positions during the recent pop to 21. But if there is a significant drop after earnings, I will certainly refill my trading positions then. Trading this ongoing volatility is really working. I'm in the green for the fourth year in a row now, and this year has been especially good--I've already made as much year to date as I did all of last year. So now I have a ton of buying power, should solars collapse again. For the first time, I'm actually looking forward to a price drop! So let the earnings fiascos begin (wry grin). I don't mean to brag--God knows I've made enough lousy trades over the years. But it looks like I've finally stumbled onto something here. Something about blind squirrels and nuts.... GLTA!
  2. No estimate from me (I don't have the time to do the detailed research you and other posters here do--which is why I like this forum), but $0.56 sounds pretty good to me. I'd be pleased with that.
  3. No, I consider FSLR overpriced because they're trading at $60 when earnings-wise they are at breakeven over the past 12 months. The current stock price assumes a return to profits that has yet to take place, and that in my mind at least is far from assured.
  4. No, of course not. In fact, the concept of FUTURE earnings is what creates a "market" (a place of varying buy/sell offers) in the first place--if a stock price were just based on current earnings, there would be no significant disagreement on that number and hence no divergent buy/sell offers. But that vision of the future is just that--a vision, not a guarantee. Expectations of future performance must be based on, and tempered with, current execution. And the assumptions of that vision should be examined. FSLR is fairly priced for significant future earnings, at a time when they have no earnings at all. If the future comes to pass as expected, I don't see their share price advancing much more--the expectation of those profits is ALREADY baked in. If, on the other hand, the assumptions of a guaranteed market advantage in that future do NOT materialize, their profits will be less than expected, which will likely lead to a share price decrease. For me, that risk is too high right now. If FSLR were still sitting at $40, yes, that's a gamble worth taking. Not at $60. Especially not with 100% of your investment capital. But that, of course, is your decision, and yours alone.
  5. If FSLR were already making those juicy profits you're anticipating, yes. But they're not--in fact, far from it. So my point is RIGHT NOW, FSLR is at best fully valued, and at worst grossly overvalued.
  6. There's no "hate" towards FSLR. Just realism. The rosy projections for continued large quarterly profits are based on tariff protections and an S6 cost advantage over their competitors. Both of those are going away. That's not to say FSLR won't be able to adapt, but they already trade at 2-3x CN valuations. FSLR may be a viable choice for a diversified solar portfolio, but I would be VERY careful to make it my ONLY solar stock. They are richly valued right now, and they do face challenges in their future. Just my two cents' worth.
  7. Congratulations! Nice to hear you've hit your goal.
  8. I saw that--impressive! That's some serious volume. Even with (presumably) low margins, that should generate some nice profits. Also, it shows solar manufacturers are not dependent on China anymore. Any increase in China later this year will just be added gravy. Finally, this kind of demand for panels bodes well for polysilicon. All around good news, I'd say!
  9. I think that's spot-on. The simple buy-and-hold strategy that is still touted by so many "experts" simply does not work in a cyclical industry like solar, especially where the troughs can actually wipe out entire players. True, the track record of active managers is even worse--leading to the persistence of the buy-and-hold advice--but I think that's because the vast majority of "active" managers don't take the time to perform the depth of analysis you do.
  10. That's what I thought 10 years ago (wry grin)....
  11. Travis turning positive on solars again. Not a lot of detail in terms of numbers, but I like his overall optimism. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/solar-energy-hot-2019-170400082.html
  12. OK, say you're right. So what???? In other posts you make rosy prognostications for FSLR for 2021, and here you're worried about the next 3 months???? I'm normally quite the fan of Ralph Waldo Emerson ("A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds"), but this is ridiculous.
  13. Understood. But again, the proof is in the reported earnings. And even if you're 100% justified in disregarding their forecast numbers, the fact remains that just making up your own numbers instead isn't any better.
  14. One quick addendum: when I say cost-cutting has stayed ahead of price declines, I mean at least enough to prevent losses. Margins can decline, leading to reduced profits, but as long as margins stay positive, you're still looking at reduced profits, versus losses. And that's what I expect for the next several months, eventually followed by an increase in demand (either later this year or beyond), when the increase in volume will drive an increase in profits even with the reduced margins.
  15. ???? You're disputing their cost-cutting has stayed ahead of their price declines? Then how in the world do they still have any profits???? And they DO have profits. $1.20 last quarter, to be precise. At a time when the sky is supposed to be falling in on them, post-May 2018. At the end of the day, what matters is DO THEY MAKE MONEY. And their record over the past year, again during a time which was supposed to be extremely challenging, is that YES THEY DO. What is so hard to accept about this????
  16. Stating your track record is not a personal attack, merely reporting the facts. You consistently choose to disbelieve information put out by these companies, and at the same time you consistently underestimate their performance. Perhaps the latter is caused by the former. We all have our blind spots. Your words of caution are useful to remind me of mine, IF I find them based on sound reasoning. But when, upon examining your reasoning, I find you simply make up the numbers you want to use for your assumptions, while ignoring the numbers reported by the companies in question, well, no offense, but here in the United States we currently have a problem with people doing exactly that. Perhaps that's why I've become sensitized to the issue. Differences of opinion aside, I do still wish you the best of luck with your trading.
  17. Jinko is not a "serious" company???? I guess it's easy to criticize someone else's business model if you just choose not to believe their figures.
  18. Just like you've been predicting Daqo to lose money for the last three quarters and every time you were wrong. They don't need prices to rise (although that would be a nice bonus). They just need prices to stabilize somewhere, and to have costs below that. So far, their cost-cutting has managed to stay ahead of the price declines. I see no reason for that to cease.
  19. Every new low in poly (or any other component) price is "historic," and has been for the past 30 years. That's what happens when the price of an item declines over time.
  20. I said the second half of this year, compared to the first half. And the answer is, any company that sells more in the second half at the same margin.
  21. Yes, and here he seems to be confusing margins with profits. Margins are narrow, and will continue to be so (at least for the straight panel producers--wafers, cells, and panels are now commodities). That's why everyone wants to increase volume--it's the only way to increase profits. But with demand expected to pick up by 3Q 19, those increased volumes in the second half of the year should drive increased profits, even if margins remain the same. Things can change in a hurry, including for the better. Remember all the doom-and-gloom forecasts when China changed its internal policy last May. Now we find out last year, in total, wasn't bad at all. Isn't China supposed to officially announce something about a renewed internal subsidy soon? THAT should certainly raise expectations, when it happens. This is just one more installment of the swing between "solar will become ubiquitous and save the world" and "every single solar company is going to go broke tomorrow." I've already entered some new trading positions at attractive prices over the past few days, and I'm prepared to enter a few more if this downturn continues. Best of luck to everyone else on their trading as well!
  22. Looks like we're just in another of these selling waves that happen every so often. Nothing to be done but ride it out.
  23. Nope. Negative news out of the US. CSIQ had great earnings for the past quarter, but sh*t the bed with their forecast for next quarter. All this from the report of one company, which doesn't even sell into the largest solar market. If JKS follows suit tomorrow, things will REALLY get ugly....
  24. I think it's a bit more than that, don't you? They're guiding for revenues of what--half the previous quarter (don't have the numbers in front of me right now)? They'll still make a profit, so forecasts of losses are overly pessimistic IMO. And of course the future for all solar looks rosy in 2020 and beyond, when California's mandate kicks in and solar just becomes ever more competitive vs. fossil fuels. So long-term they should be just fine. But $40 by August? While I welcome your optimism, I don't share it. Maybe by August 2020....
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