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solarpete

Solar Investor
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Everything posted by solarpete

  1. Trump couldn't find his @$$ with both hands and a copy of "Gray's Anatomy." The virus may be around that long, but we should be past the infection curve inflection point by then. Wuhan is our model: they got a late start fighting this thing, then had to clamp down hard to contain it. They're now approaching 3 months in lockdown, but appear to have weathered the storm. The Chinese authorities are still afraid to just release all the restrictions for fear of re-infection. We'll learn from them how fast we can release our restrictions once we pass the high point of the infection curve. Once that is even remotely in sight, I think markets worldwide will quickly rebound.
  2. Agreed. I think once we have a reasonable indication we've passed the maximum in the daily new infections curve (however high that may eventually be), markets will rapidly turn up again. The virus will still be around for months after that, but it will be under control, and businesses will be able to gradually reopen.
  3. "Aye, and if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a wagon." Both DQ and JKS have guided for healthy margins in the coming quarter. So they're not being squeezed because of oversupply. There may be oversupply, but not to their customers, or at least not with the quality of product they supply.
  4. Agreed with the above. The future is quite bright for DQ, JKS, and CSIQ. But right now, the business conditions specific to a particular company mean nothing. I've sold a huge chunk at a massive loss (even my new strategy is only limited protection against a pure market panic), looking to preserve enough capital to reestablish meaningful positions when the dust settles. And that won't be until we start seeing new infections going down in the US, which is probably more than a month away. At least I have some nice buying power if I have the guts to try daytrading some dead-cat bounces....
  5. You mean like those ephemeral "juicy" FLSR profits you've been forecasting for a year now?
  6. Now THIS is how you execute on your operational plans!
  7. Along the topic of "there are better solar stocks than FSLR right now".... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/even-outlook-improves-fslr-stock-114041143.html
  8. Yeah, at first I was concerned the notes issuance might be considered a negative, but the pricing certainly indicates management expects the company to continue to grow well into the foreseeable future. Managed to sell a few more trading shares on the spike just now. Love this volatility embedded in a steady uptrend!
  9. Sounds like the worst may already be over.... https://www.freightwaves.com/news/china-cargo-flows-rapidly-return-to-pre-coronavirus-levels
  10. When it comes to First think missing earnings expectations 5 quarters in a row. That's your nutshell there. Hope your portfolio isn't allergic to stock prices going nowhere.
  11. Yes, that's what I'm looking for, too. The current pandemic scare is just the trigger to bring us back to levels that more realistically reflect the macroeconomic factors you mention. And from what I've heard on the news so far, the bad news about lack of US preparation for an outbreak is just starting. We have virtually no testing kits, and not even something as simple as masks. Couple that with an administration which is purely incapable of telling the truth about the most mundane things, and God help us if we actually have a serious outbreak in an urban center somewhere. Batten down the hatches, folks, it's gonna be a wild ride....
  12. Of course DQ's earnings will take a hit, as will the earnings of EVERY SINGLE OTHER INDUSTRY based in those areas. That's not a surprise. What IS a surprise is FSLR's recent revelations about the results of their operations. If I were you, I'd worry less about companies I'm not invested in, and more about the single one I am. Just sayin'....
  13. OK. They've missed consensus earnings expectations at least 5 quarters in a row now (using Yahoo Finance numbers). And given what they just reported, I'm not sanguine about quarter #6. There are much better chances to make money elsewhere in the solar sector right now. How much longer do you want to sit on the sidelines, watching the money train go by?
  14. How about the fact that THERE WEREN'T ANY?? OK, the loss is apparently due to a legal issue. But even without it, they reported a yearly EPS of $1.48. That's a far cry from the 4-5-6 or so I seem to remember from previous prognostications for FSLR from certain posters. And that huge legal cost should be a GIANT red flag to any investor. It's a sign the company is doing something SERIOUSLY wrong. What EXACTLY is this liability? How long will it continue? How many more quarters will show losses? Why didn't management see this coming? All I'm saying is that right now, there is a LOT of money to be made in the solar sector. I'm making some of it. So are other posters here. If you're not (and if you're a simple buy-and-hold investor in FSLR, unfortunately, you're not), you might want to investigate why. If FSLR's operational results are so great, why are the earnings so small? If it's because management can't get out of its own way, why do you think that will change in the future? Given the overall surge in the entire solar sector, the bottom-line question each and every solar investor should be asking themselves is this: If you can't make money in this market, when do you think you will? All the best to you, Solarpete
  15. I think the results just released are telling you something--but you don't seem to be listening.
  16. Klothilde, I am truly sorry for your loss here. On this board, we're all here to exchange information to help each other make money, and while you and I certainly don't share the same views on the prospects of various companies, no one here wants to see someone else lose money. Given that ultimate focus on making money, ask yourself this: is your optimism in FSLR really founded in the type of numerical analysis you enjoy doing? Are your assumptions for that analysis realistic? Is your faith in FSLR management justified? Or do you just not want to admit you made a mistake putting so much reliance on them? Believe me, I can understand the latter. I rode LDK all the way to bankruptcy because I just couldn't get myself to admit that a former industry leader could mismanage their business so badly. Practically every other solar except FSLR is enjoying some kind of improvement in their business and their accompanying stock price. Use that keen mind of yours to take another look at some of them, and re-think that 100% dependence on a company that is disappointing you quarter after quarter, at a time when you should be enjoying significant, if not life-changing gains. Here's hoping your fortunes turn around soon! Solarpete
  17. CONGRATULATIONS!!!! Don't even try to concentrate on anything else. Just enjoy the day. You've earned it (by dint of your stock research and conviction in holding ENPH through earnings)!
  18. Yeah, that's a distinct possibility. But if it does, I'll certainly be increasing my trading positions again!
  19. Maybe it's because you've been saying the same thing for what--10 years now?
  20. That would explain the sudden surge in the stock price. Wonder if it will hold, or fall back before earnings. Earnings, of course, should tell the tale.
  21. That's quite sad news. Australia is on the front lines of suffering the consequences of climate change, yet their government truly has its head up its @ss regarding their energy policy. Maybe if it was the PM's house that burned down, he and his cronies would get a clue....
  22. Agreed. And right now, DQ's SP is absolutely BURYING FSLR's. Anybody got any idea what's driving this sudden tremendous surge? I actually fear this is overdone, without confirmation of stellar earnings for last quarter and robust guidance for next.
  23. Awesome!! Non-competitive legacy capability being taken off the market. Great news for the current cost leaders like DQ!
  24. I appreciate the word of caution, but you are neglecting some mitigating factors. They are expanding their efforts to penetrate the European residential market. For example, just this morning they announced they just signed a new cooperation deal with a roof manufacturer in Germany to provide in-roof PV components. So they know they don't want to stay US-centric. Also, the US residential market will continue to grow, as other states pass mandates similar to the California one requiring PV installations on new residential housing. And not all inverters are created the same. Yes, the Chinese can come in with cheaper units. But will they have the same connectivity as the Enphase ones (where the ASICs are heavily patented)? That would require patent infringement or other intellectual property theft--certainly something China is known for, but nevertheless something they'd have to retro-engineer first, and that takes time. Finally, a currently completely overlooked market is their completely off-the-grid solution for rural areas in undeveloped countries (Africa, India outside the cities). That, too, is coming, and is completely separate from their offerings for the developed rooftop market. So the question becomes, how much farther do they have to run? And here the honest answer is, of course, no one knows. But currently, their prospects are good. They've proven their technology, and they have a head start on the competition. I can easily see the stock eventually heading to $100+, based on their expanding into the European and off-grid markets. If they pull that off (and that's their plan), they'll have the profits to justify that share price. If they don't, they won't, and I will be monitoring the news for any indications those markets are not growing as expected. And of course, there will undoubtedly be pullbacks along the way. So I am not a blind cheerleader for the stock. Indeed, I have just today taken profits in it again, and currently own only one small trading position (in case they continue to go higher before pulling back). (My trading approach actually has me holding only small amounts of a stock at its all-time high, as that's the time it's most vulnerable to quick reversals.) But I am certainly ready to pounce and aggressively buy any pullbacks, even small ones. As you say, Q4 results and FY20 guidance will be key. And I anticipate both will be excellent. For the next 12 months, at least, I think this stock will continue to be a trader's dream, with frequent fluctuations around a steadily increasing stock price due to increasing profits from expanding markets. After that, who knows? Perhaps the trend will continue. Perhaps not, and it will be time to look for another trading stock. But for now, the sun is out, and it's time to make hay!
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