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Everything posted by odyd

  1. Another staple from SPVI , short interest data. this time in the form of the link http://solarpvinvestor.com/database/short-interest-data/short-interest-2012
  2. I do not know this guy, but I am getting second thoughts about the quality of CS analysts. Who are the peers? Sunergy and Yingli? They can't expand they have no money. This is not the same like making a choice. Credit Suisse upgraded ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL) from Underperform to Neutral with a price target of $4.00 (from $5.00). Anlayst Maheep Mandloi commented, "We are upgrading ReneSola to Neutral on evidence of its differentiated project focus that has the potential to boost earnings power versus peers. The company announced plans to sell 440 MW of projects in 2017 (vs. ~40 MW in 2016). With an additional ~560 MW projects in late stage discussions, the company is positioning itself for a shift in revenue and earnings power. The module and wafer product business, which has come under pressure owing to growing oversupply, will account for only 51% of revenues in 2017 versus 91% in 2016. Solar projects command a higher ASP and margin (~$0.85-0.95/W and mid- to high teen GM%) vs. modules (~$0.33-0.37/W and mid- to high-single-digit GM%). In the near term, the opportunistic shift implies the company is nearly as likely to benefit from the fall in module prices as it is to lose from it. By comparison, peers expect to generate 90-95% of revenues in 2017. The pivot is not without challenges as ReneSola is yet to prove project business growth beyond current portfolio, and has only identified buyers for 60% of its current plan so far. However, we believe the stock will do better than Underperformrated Chinese peers owing to declining net debt and because it’s one of the few choosing to navigate forward without adding capacity." For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on ReneSola Ltd. click here. For more ratings news on ReneSola Ltd. click here.
  3. T1s sell on contract, they do not sell modules on spot, what you see as price today is probably next or two quarters down the road. Listen to Hanwha's cc they told this to some analyst.
  4. Those look like spot prices, you cannot use those to gauge T1 Mfgs Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  5. I like how Travis writes Chinese harm themselves, yet SunPower and First Solar move to third party sales is the timing masterpiece. Isn't this jump to a shark pool? Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  6. I am starting this thread for members to share their actions on the market outside of single trade. I see a lot of good info coming from members which are commenting on a larger scale than solar. I also see that solar universe is becoming land-locked with its internal issues. While I fully understand opportunities in contrarian approach, frequently market does not offer awards for being right, and in particular in solar it hard to be awarded if you get ahead of conditions, see them delivered only to observe no reaction or even negative reaction. Understanding limitations, this thread also combines beyond solar views. Finally, I am not sure where to package my thoughts on some plans I have for investing in dividend walks. For one, it takes a lot of time and effort to find things. It makes only sense to share this with those who support the cost of the side. I encourage everyone to share your views, in this scope. Thank you
  7. For those who tracked my article, I miscalculated Q4 for ASP for Canadian. It came at healthy $0.417, and CSIQ beat JKS on average at 1 cent per watt for the whole of 2016. I suspect this will remain to be the pattern, explained in my article, as the impact of mono adds on to JKS is not going to make a lot of difference, while I suspect black silicon multi could get a lot more than just multi bought being PERC. This is ASP talk, not the cost talk. I think that CSIQ is a sole supplier of own cells in 2016 when it comes to black silicon (not wafers), I have not observed anyone making black silicon sales in a big way. So this provides more support for my theory of cost and the ASP. The cost will be lower than standard multi and priced higher than standard multi.
  8. Canadian Solar Inc. (the "Company" or "Canadian Solar") (NASDAQ: CSIQ), one of the world's largest solar companies, today announced the delivery 26 MW of its high quality and high-performing CS6P-P solar power modules to EPC Contractor TSK Solar for the "San Fermin" solar power plant installation in Puerto Rico, co-developed by firms Uriel Renewables inc. and Coqui Power LLC. The solar power plant is located in the North Eastern town of Loiza, a region that regularly faces adverse weather conditions such as hurricanes, tropical storms and flooding. Due to the specific nature of the project and its location, the project's electrical equipment were installed on structures that elevated them two to four meters above ground, and have also been designed to withstand winds of up to 260 kilometers per hour. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=196781&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1740448&highlight=
  9. First 22MW project in Alberta got approved in Alberta, another 6 are being reviewed http://www.auc.ab.ca/regulatory_documents/ProceedingDocuments/2017/22307-D02-2017.pdf all 7 are about 140MW
  10. Another article from Bond, great info https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/multi-vs-mono-part-4-lcoe-matters-efficiency-xiaodong-bond-wang?trk=v-feed&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_feed%3Bt%2FdihHF15IRz12rwjI3ycg%3D%3D
  11. Travis has another article out, Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  12. ReneSola reported 2.1% GM http://finance.yahoo.com/news/renesola-announces-fourth-quarter-full-105000458.html
  13. yes, being able to use the same saw on both is a significant advantage for CSIQ.
  14. The third article from Bond, it exactly talks about black silicon https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/multi-vs-mono-part-3-dw-slicing-now-never-xiaodong-bond-wang?trk=v-feed&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_feed%3BCDbOI%2FeRGmNMqV7rBT2E5A%3D%3D "DW slicing + Black Silicon Process + PERC With a 18.4% of basic multi cell efficiency, plus average gain of 0.5% from black silicon, plus 0.2% from PERC, here comes 20.1%. An efficiency 0.4% behind mono (PERC), while cell cost 10-15% lower, it could be a winning point. Though multi grain feature decides that fact that multi DW slicing is less impacting than mono, it’s still a quantum leap once mass production achieved. Plus, pressure from mono increases exponentially since China government’s FRP project came along. And more panels are shutting down multi lines and switching to mono."
  15. New report form this week http://solarpvinvestor.com/spvi-news/350-weekly-solar-market-price-trends-mainland-china-report-10
  16. Thank you looking for healthy conversation. Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  17. JA looks like it has very small amount of sales on export, versus their projections. Those sales in Mainland will offset this hopefully.
  18. I am hopeful that JASO is seen for its results, I am trying to make point of it in my article. Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  19. I submitted a new article to SA. I hope it can be published soon. Perhaps it will add a bit controversy. I always seem to bring it.
  20. My investment logic is based on operational metrics and the statistical continuum. I have planned for years productivity budgets within specific organizations, and I find ratio logic to work in interesting similarity, as long as conditions remain constant. The table in attachment expresses this philosophy. I do not expect most of the investors to begin to rationalize anything out there in similar fashion. Hence particular observations can only become visible until they are facts. The reactionary behavior of CSIQ stock is just a result of not seeing the ability of profit. In the case of JKS and JASO, the profit is visible. Both SPWR and FSLR are in the same boat, where non-profit is already guided. CSIQ is not seen as different, and the market is adjusting it down, mind you, too severely in my opinion, as the expectations should already attract interest.
  21. For a moment I thought you were serious, but I see FSLR price tag. What happened to JASO's $30 which was not worth selling at $9.60? I thought the JA team did well in in 2016, and are set to do well in 2017? Big shift after holding to a stock for such a long time, now giving such a low ball view.
  22. In a more rational market, yet still JASO, $10 Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  23. Well, I feel I am getting medicated with my expectations of FSLR being $25, the constant dislike of JASO when I sold it almost 4 years go for a price which higher than one today. I am not impressed with Jinko paper money worth cool $1.1B, and feel that GM dropped will hurt it more than JASO or CSIQ this year. I do not feel as bad about the price as my average now stinks from $11.90, which beats some hefty averages in FSLR well above $40s. However I am concerned, that I see such different picture from Explo on one stock while I think JKS is worth solid $20 and CSIQ around $17 based on 2017 results. Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk