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dydo

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Everything posted by dydo

  1. NYLD Q3 2017 Results

    NYLD Q3 2017 Results
  2. CSIQ Q3 2017 Results

    CSIQ Q3 2017 Results
  3. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    One thing to consider is that admin and for that matter, selling does not have an offset for module supplies to own plants. The offset is supposed to come from selling the projects. So if you consider there are additional 1.5 to 1.7GW of modules unsold, but on books, having the administration to support it, in way of managing those assets those amounts become more so explainable. There is also upkeep on Thailand, Brazil and all locations like Japan, which now requires management and may take some of that cost away with the establishment of CSIF. I think some of that cost may be in general ledger but could be also offset elsewhere. It looks like a lot of money to do business but I hope it will be balanced out soon with the gains.
  4. Canadian Solar Inc. (the "Company" or "Canadian Solar") (NASDAQ: CSIQ), one of the world's largest solar companies, today announced the delivery 26 MW of its high quality and high-performing CS6P-P solar power modules to EPC Contractor TSK Solar for the "San Fermin" solar power plant installation in Puerto Rico, co-developed by firms Uriel Renewables inc. and Coqui Power LLC. The solar power plant is located in the North Eastern town of Loiza, a region that regularly faces adverse weather conditions such as hurricanes, tropical storms and flooding. Due to the specific nature of the project and its location, the project's electrical equipment were installed on structures that elevated them two to four meters above ground, and have also been designed to withstand winds of up to 260 kilometers per hour. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=196781&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1740448&highlight=
  5. FSLR needs money for capacity, the costs for it will take a good chunk.
  6. A thread dedicated to tech. analysis
  7. Trading Solars

    I wonder if that artificial pressure on CSIQ is going to end with update in November or will it take the balance sheet update to take for the folks understand the shift?
  8. Trading Solars

    Another staple from SPVI , short interest data. this time in the form of the link http://solarpvinvestor.com/database/short-interest-data/short-interest-2012
  9. There is no value in ROFO, logically. Say I have a right to buy all CSIQ projects how much would you pay for this right?
  10. FSLR Q3 2017 Results

    FSLR Q3 2017 Results
  11. Solar News

    New report form this week http://solarpvinvestor.com/spvi-news/350-weekly-solar-market-price-trends-mainland-china-report-10
  12. Solar News

    Huge news, Taiwanese three companies consolidate into one, United Renewable Energy, I wonder what Motech will do. It was biggest alone before. https://www.pv-tech.org/news/gintech-nsp-and-solartech-to-merge-and-drop-merchant-business-model
  13. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Now we have a confirmation on the US plants in addition to date for Q3 results https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-solar-schedules-third-quarter-093900138.html and Australian deal https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-solar-enters-binding-contracts-110000984.html
  14. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I have looked again at the Japanese IPO; the actual price purchase is $272M or 30.433B yen this means the price per watt is about $3.74/watt. On the IPO it shows that amount of the infrastructure assets as over 31B yen. The IRR of the plants is 6% not sure after debt service and O&M but I assume it is. October 20 is the IPO price determination. They are trying to sell 186,690 units average price is about $894 per unit, that will bring $167M. The issuable units are 10M, so there is plenty room for future issuance if possible. Domestically they plan to sell 129K units and additional 48K are to be sold overseas. 8K is oversubscribed units. The value is based on existing capital of 150M yen and 1500 units issued prior to IPO. The $167M may not be fully paid to CSIQ. There are fees and perhaps need for the capital for CSIF. I think Qu said it was 15% in fees. The price for sold units on the market may be higher and the gains will be collected from the public buy over IPO or not. CSIQ may still collect $167M as a result but the number could be $142M. $142M is still a massive amount of equity versus the price of $272M. some 52%. The debt would be assumed for the balance, but what that balance is I am not sure. I doubt CSIQ would take 30% GM but they may if 20% is the invested equity. Yieldcos would usually use the entire proceeding to get the asset and leave small fraction to operate and to make interest payments. The beauty here is that debt is probably below 1% IR or flat. Looking forward to this first transaction. 6% return in the zero return environment seems attractive to get busy, but who knows.
  15. Solar Stocks Technical Analysis

    Tupapa, thank you for the contribution. Most of us trade on the US exchanges, so a review of companies of this area, like SEDG is something I personally like to read. thanks
  16. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    This is the capture of CSIQ solar plant transactions in the next 9 months timeline. I am not claiming this to be fully accurate, but I tried to make as much relationship to sales taking place on the market today. For equity only transactions, I used PEGI explanation how to make money on equity. I reduced this by 10%, just to be conservative. I did not include debt elimination. I would say $1.3B
  17. I see the equity value for plants, and it is not 900MW but 569MW direct ownership and they continue to confuse with an interest in statements. Yes, I am pretty convinced there is no more than $10 per share here and I would say less. One needs to know that debt must be acquired as well, that is additional $700M plus for the buyer. I am posting a table to show what I see for CSIQ transactions, it is easy to take the price per watt and compare. CAFD is worth $1.24B that is $2.17 per watt without debt. The price per watt for CSIQ projects is $2.04 AC (569MW is AC) including debt. No interest is paid on current credit, just principal. Think this way, $110M of CAFD for 14 years, no interest is paid. That is $1.54B in return, right? You pay $1.2B for equity and $700M for debt, debt which is going to cost 3 to 5% in interest per every year but let's take this out for now. So you bought a shell which makes no cash for $1.9B to get $1.4B return, $500M in a hole, as we sit here, still no interest. That $500M is over $6 per share. We are at $9 per share transaction to stay flat. That is my point here. Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) bought 80% interest in 1.7GW Mexican projects. It is a mix of solar and wind, the price paid $1.3B or so about under a dollar. A lot of equity needs to go in yet, as the projects are not complete for a large part of it and further contribution. is required, but certainly, nobody will pay $3.33 per watt for $2.70 dividend in case of CAFD. My two cents. I do not recommend to short or play with this. I think it is a trap to have it and I would ask owners of the stock reflect financially why they own the stock at this price.
  18. According to Sparkspread final bids are due for 8P3 next week. I can see how the stock is up as a result, cannot see this price to remain. I think it is way too high.
  19. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I think for the Korean buying 309MW plus MW, the price should be close to those averages, but chances are the tax equity may have a greater impact. It would be nice to hit one of those in Q4 and one in Q1. Q4 should have 92MW project sale, IPO sale and hopefully 150MW in UK. I also hope for selling the big project in Japan which can give another $100M in revenue. In addition to $600M plus in module sales, we could be looking at $1.2 to $1.5B quarters for Q4 and Q1 and more. Those should add nice numbers to net income, equity, cash etc. I think that Chinese actually pay more, not less, Koreans could pay less,
  20. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    The transaction needs to be approved. Shenzhen has announced it, as they are also going with an approval of their own. Canadian will not announce it until the transaction has the projected cash transfer timeline. The Q1 2018 is the end of the proposal. It should be a formality but we have a responsible party in CSIQ. I think they will do a prelim, as soon as Shenzhen approves it.
  21. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    My final thoughts about this transaction are summarized in the table below. I can’t guarantee this is the exact outcome but I would say it could be close. This is for 393MW out of 707MW expected to sell. The DC watt is more so $1.57 and AC is $2.04. That is about 3 cents more than Switch Stations sold for, very relative to the market out there.
  22. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Do not forget there is a 30% ITC credit involved. That result is not 11 but not 5, I agree it makes no difference. I am working on a final break of the transaction. will post shortly I am at 17.53% so yes.
  23. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Yes, that sounds about right for yearly KWh I got. There is no way Mustang makes 5 cents per kWh, I assume this is earned for one month
  24. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    To contrary, looks like CSIQ can make a huge amount of money from this transaction. There is no way that equity was greater than 20%, so we are looking at 18% GM. That is beyond any expectations I ever had. BTW there is no magic to it. The project revenues paid the debt faster than the amortization could erode GM.
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