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dydo

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Everything posted by dydo

  1. dydo

    Beyond Solar

    updated index
  2. A lot of events in this industry, but not much capital appreciation. Interest rates steadied or perhaps on a drop side, could change it still over 7% dividend and steadily recovering to 80% pay out. NEP looks good too .
  3. I have reentered the land of renewables with investment in Pattern.
  4. dydo

    Beyond Solar

    updated index
  5. Awesome update from CSIQ. Beat on Q4.
  6. dydo

    Beyond Solar

    My second recommendation is Sangamo Therapeutics, SGMO. By Feb 7, the company will have a delivery of the results in MPS II and MPS I. They are first in the world to edit the human genome in vivo. MPS II results were released in September where the application reduced negative byproduct GAGs. In Feb expectation is to confirm that IDS enzyme is produced therefore GAGs are reduced by patients' production of IDS, a deficit of the enzyme is a sole root-cause of MPS II disease. The stock volatility may be very high. However, for those with risk acceptance, now and next 7 trading days from today, the stock could move 10 to 15%. If something fails a 20 to 30% may be experienced on Feb 7. There are more stories to this company. If I will see that Feb 7 is validated I will offer a bigger summary. Proceed at your own risk and good luck.
  7. dydo

    Beyond Solar

    Hi all, since I recommended this stock the return is 61%, from Dec 26th, at 16.83 to 27.24 today. By Feb 28th EMA will or will not issue a recommendation to approve Andexxa in the EU. Based on this outcome I expect the stock to reach $40s by April. The target is still $70 by Q3, the company continues to be a buyout target, in a range of $70 to $100 per share.
  8. I wonder if there is an announcement pending?
  9. Defying gravity? Seem to take of easily these days.
  10. Thank you MVA and Mark for your kindness. It is a while since I had an article published, and even though I enjoyed the exercise I am out of touch with the industry for an equal amount of time. I reduced myself to a lurker at this point and have no plans to come back to those dear subjects of ours. Interestingly solar is quite strong, especially CSIQ. I think as usual the forecasts and predictions are somewhere in the middle. I think CSIQ is going to do well and I expect them to beat forecast offered thus far offered here. Good luck to you all
  11. The story of Canadian pipeline shrinking was heard loud and clear on this forum since Canadian plants were completed. The company is not only one pure developer still standing, but it is producing more and more business encompassing other arms of managing solar plants. It maintains healthy "sell and/or keep" strategy. There are many markets to go with solar plants. And those markets will expand. We have not seen any victims of the slowdowns with exception of few subs going bankrupt in China. There is plenty of space available. The manufacturing and the decisions made had worked thus far for the company. I am not sure why transformation, when required, would not be as well executed as it has been to date. Not sure why a successful organization would suddenly lose its footing. They are the most capable of a shift. FSLR has zero ability to shift, SPWR is dead, JKS is almost dead and will never be buried if it died, like Yingli, but CSIQ is somehow paralyzed and cannot make a move? I read those scenarios too many times. I argued against them as many, and I am surprised to see them again. Even Snake seems to be seeing Chinese taking FSLR to cleaners now. I do not have a skin in this game, but I think Canadian could surprise few folks here with its share price going forward. Cheers, I am back under the rock.
  12. Nice to see CSIQ hitting 52-week highs, getting business globally, becoming independent off commodity material swings. I read commentary how they going to fall on their face with their multi products. Not likely if they build solar parks with them as a major user. CSIQ adaptability to business cycles seems superior to any other listed company. And surprisingly the market is recognizing it. Days of $40 per share may not be gone but if anything CSIQ has a chance to reach that in a couple years.
  13. dydo

    Beyond Solar

    A 30% return based on the date of the post and today's closing. The stock is at just above $1.3B market. Two M&A actions, BMY, and CELG mentioned by explo and LLY buying LEXO are putting a bit of fire on the buyout candidates. BMY and Pfizer is a maker of Eliquis and JNJ and Bayer make Xarelto. Andexxa made by Portola is an antidote for the two drugs. Eliquis is more dominant in sales, between overall markets some $12 or $13B in sales in 2019 and more with an available antidote. Now JNJ and Beyer wanted to use Xarelto in the area where Bevyxxa another Portola drug is already approved. Since BMY bought Celgene, JNJ purchase of Portola seems very logical. There is a sense that Portola can help JNJ and the perception that Xarelto has more bleeds with Andexxa. Bottom line Portola is a candidate for a buyout and JNJ seems like a potential buyer. At 4 times of Andexxa $1B sales and perhaps $500M for Bevyxxa when fully running, $6B looks like $96 per share. This will not happen tomorrow, but there is a good potential that stock could be $70 by Q3 of this year. Good Luck.
  14. dydo

    Beyond Solar

    Hi all, Portola received its approval Monday 31, 2018. The stock traded over 15% up in 20 minutes. Today it appears some of it may be given back. Another catalyst is on Jan 8th, where the company is likely to discuss strategy for distribution of the product, which there is about $300M worth of inventory. This sold in 2019 would give a triple of the revenue target currently given by analysts. A $1B in sales may indicate the potential of $3 to $6B in the market cap. So there is a room for the price to go up.
  15. dydo

    Beyond Solar

    PTLA is awaiting approval for the manufacturing process of an already approved drug in the US Andexxa. The company is trading about 80 cents above 52 week low. An approval would likely raise it to $30 within a month. Non-approval would kill the stock, by half. Since this is PAS, a post-approval supplemental the odds are on the side of approval, despite a slaughter of the stock. For those with extra funds, a risk acceptable members, it may offer a quick return, within 5 trading days. Please proceed with your own DD before investing, opening position etc.
  16. dydo

    Trading Solars

    One of the worst years to date for me. Still invested, hoping for a recovery in 2019. A lot of value created by selloffs in a variety of sectors. Holding positions until money is made. Enjoy the Holiday Season and have a Happy New Year
  17. dydo

    Solar News

    Qu on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/two-sides-every-story-dr-shawn-qu/
  18. dydo

    Solar News

    Tariff rebates for Chinese through the wrong calculation in 2014 possible https://www.pv-tech.org/news/us-government-could-owe-chinese-solar-firms-up-to-us295-million-in-trade-ta
  19. Cancellation of the buyout offer made little impact on a share price at this point. CSIQ from a distance seems to have best results among solars listed. Is the stock at risk of depressed price or growth looking into 2019?
  20. Just looking at the transcript the 265MW sale reduced short-term debt by $172M. So the equity stake in $266M was about $90M or 33%, not 20%. Cash would be closer to $130M just from this transaction, that is a huge cash injection.
  21. I am curious how the Q4 expectations accommodate the sale of plants in October with $307M in revenue versus the margin of 26%? The value for those plants recorded in investment in affiliates was about $266M. The profit would be $41M or 13.5%. Just to track it down, plants left are Mustang, Roserock, and NC102. Total 340MW. This does match accounting for it in Q3 as at the time of October 31, 2018. Side note: The investment in affiliates would reduce by $266M, borrowing at 80% of it or $212M, cash transaction of some $93M. Not bad for what recently was considered the garbage assets. Finally, the market cap of CSIQ is the market cap of SunPower. Enough said.
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