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  • Portfolio %
    45% SPWR 10% TOT 10% PEGI 35%CASH
  1. It is all fun and games until suddenly it isn't. Reckless expansion is what brought Yingli down.
  2. Is Caterpillar Inc getting into solar business now? Anyone heard anything about their Solar offerings? https://solarbuildermag.com/pv-modules/caterpillar-to-start-selling-cat-branded-sunpower-solar-panels-through-its-distribution-network/
  3. According to Werner, should be taken with grain of salt since hes CEO, SPWR was hit with tariffs and china 531 policy and that is the reason why they didn't make money in 2018. They were hit the hardest out of all with tariffs because higher ASP * 30% tariff means higher tariff cash cost than other players. (As a SPWR long, this is a reasonable explanation to me) Their GAAP loss in 2018 is 85% impairment of factory and lease portfolio. They are not profitable on Non-GAAP numbers but its not 1B loss as GAAP numbers show. (As a SPWR long, this is a reasonable explanation to me) In 2019 they will be exempt from Tariff, have shingled P-Series from JV in China and have NGT cells that supposedly match PERC cell production costs while maintaining 25% efficiency. Those panels should be 23% efficient and cost similar to PERC modules. They don't disclose any numbers so no idea how truthful any of this is. (Not sure I believe this as SPWR long, they have been saying this for over 5 qs now) In 2019 the market will transition to higher efficiency panels and those that sell dirt cheap and 17% panels will be in disadvantage at least in non power plant projects. When most are selling below cash costs SPWR guidance for Q4 is not that bad. Bad in case of SPWR is ~ -15 margins lol
  4. SPWR is an US solar manufacturer. People like that fact. It has the same style following as Tesla. Small US company taking on the giants and their only weapon is their better technology. Most hold shares that are way underwater so no more reason to panic now than there was 2 years ago. People see P-Series and NGT series are a shinning light for SPWR. California mandate, tariff exemption, new tech and Total backing are all arguably major catalysts. Strong balance sheets are valuable but better tech in solar space is the true driver of stock price. Company that falls behind on efficiency and technology dies much faster than company that has issues with cash flow. In the long run there will be a handful of companies that survive. Longi, GCL, Hanwha, Panasonic, LG, Total are probably the companies that will be left in the long run.
  5. LOL very good call. Should have shorted the stock and your research would have made you alot of money. In the same spirit I want to also make prediction. FirstSolar will declare bankruptcy before SunPower. ( Here is the reasoning: (All credit due to SolarCraig at https://seekingalpha.com/user/12588271/comments) The reason why the customer has to wait 2 years is because they cannot manufacture the product at requested watt levels. A 400 watt module with a +- 10% power differential is ridiculously poor standard. You need to understand that. Even product sold 10 years ago had better numbers then this. You have to understand solar engineering and construction. If you have 18 modules in a string of modules and one of those modules produces power at 365 watts that means the entire string of 18 modules will only produce power at 365 watts. That is why their locked in contracts specify higher power tolerances and also explains the two year delay on "locked in contracts". You need to deliver the product. Come 2019 Q2 if they cannot deliver this stock will be zero.
  6. It has become apparent to all that SPWR is on the final 12-18 month stretch. If they can't become profitable with P-Series and NGT series panles it lights out. Would be a sad day to see First Solar as the last US solar company. The Chinese.. what can you do.. they know how to manufacture better the most..
  7. Didn't SPWR say they patented shingled module design?
  8. "He had no knowledge regarding the industry and little about SunPower. He was looking to be hired as a Director of international procurement." This sounds a bit strange.
  9. Explo, "So you think that will result in larger than 160m profit (equity gain)?" Yes, it surely will be. Please see excerpt from transcript below: "So we have lease, microinverter and power plant, all three we expect to close in Q3. And we have not guided a number for proceeds from those transactions. I would say it could meaningfully be used to ramp NGT.."
  10. Ok, I see. You just didn't take it into account since asset sales are not guided in the guidance.
  11. Robert, In Q3 sale of lease portfolio will result in "proceeds to be about $200 million in cash and the buyer will assume or pay off $436 million of debt for total proceeds of $636 million." So I am not sure how you come up with negative equity in Q3
  12. SunnyPease, Please make an effort to read the transcript in order to contribute meaningful feedback on the earnings report. Let me assist you with that. "They seem to have negative margins in all segments now?" No they do not. 0% on PowerPlants. 6% on Commercial, 20% on Resi. Since they had plants write off due to refurbishing Fab 3 to NGT their GAAP numbers took a $460M hit. "Their numbers & forecasts assume that they will receive an exclusion to the tariffs." No, this is wrong. Not sure where you got it from. See transcript: As a reminder, our guidance assumes our estimated impact of the Section 201 tariffs for Q3 and 2018 as a whole. We expect Q3 tariffs to be around $25 million. "And they are rolling out some magical new solar technology that I did not understand. Anyone else get it?" See transcript below: First of all, NGT is based on a six inch M4 wafer platform compared with our five inch legacy wafers. The resultant cells produce almost 70% more power per unit. Our technology has developed a simplified manufacturing flow that enables 25% cell efficiency with fewer steps and fewer production tools, thereby reducing capital expenditures. Hope this helps.
  13. Just in.. CAFD is sold for 12.35 a share
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