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stolypin

Solar Member
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About stolypin

Portfolio

  • Portfolio %
    45% SPWR 10% TOT 10% PEGI 35%CASH
  1. stolypin

    Solar News

    Is Caterpillar Inc getting into solar business now? Anyone heard anything about their Solar offerings? https://solarbuildermag.com/pv-modules/caterpillar-to-start-selling-cat-branded-sunpower-solar-panels-through-its-distribution-network/
  2. stolypin

    SunPower (SPWR)

    According to Werner, should be taken with grain of salt since hes CEO, SPWR was hit with tariffs and china 531 policy and that is the reason why they didn't make money in 2018. They were hit the hardest out of all with tariffs because higher ASP * 30% tariff means higher tariff cash cost than other players. (As a SPWR long, this is a reasonable explanation to me) Their GAAP loss in 2018 is 85% impairment of factory and lease portfolio. They are not profitable on Non-GAAP numbers but its not 1B loss as GAAP numbers show. (As a SPWR long, this is a reasonable explanation to me) In 2019 they will be exempt from Tariff, have shingled P-Series from JV in China and have NGT cells that supposedly match PERC cell production costs while maintaining 25% efficiency. Those panels should be 23% efficient and cost similar to PERC modules. They don't disclose any numbers so no idea how truthful any of this is. (Not sure I believe this as SPWR long, they have been saying this for over 5 qs now) In 2019 the market will transition to higher efficiency panels and those that sell dirt cheap and 17% panels will be in disadvantage at least in non power plant projects. When most are selling below cash costs SPWR guidance for Q4 is not that bad. Bad in case of SPWR is ~ -15 margins lol
  3. stolypin

    SunPower (SPWR)

    SPWR is an US solar manufacturer. People like that fact. It has the same style following as Tesla. Small US company taking on the giants and their only weapon is their better technology. Most hold shares that are way underwater so no more reason to panic now than there was 2 years ago. People see P-Series and NGT series are a shinning light for SPWR. California mandate, tariff exemption, new tech and Total backing are all arguably major catalysts. Strong balance sheets are valuable but better tech in solar space is the true driver of stock price. Company that falls behind on efficiency and technology dies much faster than company that has issues with cash flow. In the long run there will be a handful of companies that survive. Longi, GCL, Hanwha, Panasonic, LG, Total are probably the companies that will be left in the long run.
  4. stolypin

    SunPower (SPWR)

    LOL very good call. Should have shorted the stock and your research would have made you alot of money. In the same spirit I want to also make prediction. FirstSolar will declare bankruptcy before SunPower. ( Here is the reasoning: (All credit due to SolarCraig at https://seekingalpha.com/user/12588271/comments) The reason why the customer has to wait 2 years is because they cannot manufacture the product at requested watt levels. A 400 watt module with a +- 10% power differential is ridiculously poor standard. You need to understand that. Even product sold 10 years ago had better numbers then this. You have to understand solar engineering and construction. If you have 18 modules in a string of modules and one of those modules produces power at 365 watts that means the entire string of 18 modules will only produce power at 365 watts. That is why their locked in contracts specify higher power tolerances and also explains the two year delay on "locked in contracts". You need to deliver the product. Come 2019 Q2 if they cannot deliver this stock will be zero.
  5. stolypin

    SunPower (SPWR)

    It has become apparent to all that SPWR is on the final 12-18 month stretch. If they can't become profitable with P-Series and NGT series panles it lights out. Would be a sad day to see First Solar as the last US solar company. The Chinese.. what can you do.. they know how to manufacture better the most..
  6. stolypin

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Didn't SPWR say they patented shingled module design?
  7. stolypin

    SunPower (SPWR)

    "He had no knowledge regarding the industry and little about SunPower. He was looking to be hired as a Director of international procurement." This sounds a bit strange.
  8. stolypin

    SunPower (SPWR)

    Explo, "So you think that will result in larger than 160m profit (equity gain)?" Yes, it surely will be. Please see excerpt from transcript below: "So we have lease, microinverter and power plant, all three we expect to close in Q3. And we have not guided a number for proceeds from those transactions. I would say it could meaningfully be used to ramp NGT.."
  9. stolypin

    SunPower (SPWR)

    Ok, I see. You just didn't take it into account since asset sales are not guided in the guidance.
  10. stolypin

    SunPower (SPWR)

    Robert, In Q3 sale of lease portfolio will result in "proceeds to be about $200 million in cash and the buyer will assume or pay off $436 million of debt for total proceeds of $636 million." So I am not sure how you come up with negative equity in Q3
  11. stolypin

    SunPower (SPWR)

    SunnyPease, Please make an effort to read the transcript in order to contribute meaningful feedback on the earnings report. Let me assist you with that. "They seem to have negative margins in all segments now?" No they do not. 0% on PowerPlants. 6% on Commercial, 20% on Resi. Since they had plants write off due to refurbishing Fab 3 to NGT their GAAP numbers took a $460M hit. "Their numbers & forecasts assume that they will receive an exclusion to the tariffs." No, this is wrong. Not sure where you got it from. See transcript: As a reminder, our guidance assumes our estimated impact of the Section 201 tariffs for Q3 and 2018 as a whole. We expect Q3 tariffs to be around $25 million. "And they are rolling out some magical new solar technology that I did not understand. Anyone else get it?" See transcript below: First of all, NGT is based on a six inch M4 wafer platform compared with our five inch legacy wafers. The resultant cells produce almost 70% more power per unit. Our technology has developed a simplified manufacturing flow that enables 25% cell efficiency with fewer steps and fewer production tools, thereby reducing capital expenditures. Hope this helps.
  12. stolypin

    Trading Strategy

    Just in.. CAFD is sold for 12.35 a share
  13. stolypin

    Trading Solars

    Robert, will you start writing articles on SeekingAlpha about your new holdings? Very interested in following your logic on these new holdings.
  14. stolypin

    SunPower (SPWR)

    Robert, This comment of yours keeps me up at night since I am long SPWR. "The value of SPWR does not reflect on the value of TOTAL shares. At $120B, it has no impact on it. I may not be clear enough. They are not trying to save money on SPWR. The motion of saving is only if someone cares about the price. I have said three times they do not care about the price. They want ownership of the company, and they do not care how much value this represents. Of course, financially this is how I see this. I saw this before and I expect to see this elsewhere again. TOTAL is not an investor, they are the owner. You are only valuing your business when you sell or borrow against it, otherwise, its operating potential is what matters.If anything, there is an opportunity to increase this ownership and they have means, as I described them. To conclude my message, TOTAL is playing for itself, and not for any one else owning shares. Their goal is not to make money on shares, but own qualified, effective solar business. That ownership and not the value of shares what matters. The distinctive difference does not make future actions by TOTAL shareholder friendly. TOTAL does not need SPWR to be listed publically to operate and decide its future. So taking it off from the public arena is, in fact, a lot more functional. If one can see above as what to expect, can see TOTAL allow public shares drop the value, go true difficult transition stripping problems away and perhaps reorganize the company under private label. This would be done by buying debt, and that is exactly what TOTAL is doing. Finally, faded value of shares only empowers TOTAL to buy SunPower out. After conversion of $200M into 22M shares, the price per share drops to $7.73 on 158M shares. Bringing TOTAL ownership to 62%, Having negative equity by 2018 August or November, you have stock probably hit $4 to $5, maybe less. Another buy of the debentures, another conversion, very simple.Time will tell." -SA "Why You Shouldn't Invest In SunPower's Weakness" - Robert Dydo I have 4 point to throw your way and I would be very grateful to hear what you think. Institutional Investors. Why do they keep SPWR in their portfolio if the scenario you described in your comment is the most probable one? >500MW France Projects. Total helped SPWR acquire about 500MW of projects in France. To me it seems to directly contradict your point that explain the true intentions TOTAL has towards SPWR. Do you think this 500MW project collaboration as a contradiction to your point? Solar+Storage. On Q3 earnings Tom stated that over 50% of commercial projects in 2016 have storage in them. The storage component is accretive for SPWRs product portfolio and will increase margins (my speculation). FAB 3 and NGT cell/panel. FAB 3 had 750 MW of capacity before it was shut down. In Q3 SPWR will start producing their NGT cells there and coincidentally Werner stated that sustainable profitability will start in 2H 2018. They are obviously alluding to NGT that will rival cost of S6. What are thoughts on this? I think your position on SPWR has very solid basis so I will try to see if I can shake it because every time I read your article about SPWR I question my reasoning about SPWR but never actually change my mind. Thank you
  15. stolypin

    SunPower (SPWR)

    sunnypease, I see your point. T. Werner explained that in order to give a more detailed overview of "true" margins they had to use non-gaap numbers. It is a given and emphasized on every report that GAAP numbers are true numbers but Non-GAAP numbers show the true margins of DG and Power Plant markets. Is it unethical is a different question, but at least in this case it makes sense since we know what the true margins of different sectors are and then we compare that number to gaap margins to see the difference. So I see their non gaap numbers merely as supplemental information so to speak.
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