JinkoSolar (JKS)

[Guest solarcat]

what earnings are tomorrow?

JKS pre-market tomorrow http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jinkosolar-report-fourth-quarter-full-090000134.html

[pg6solar 113]

A bit confused by the CC. They expect to ship above nameplate, implying 100% utilization - good. Still the lowest producer (or at least among them) - good. Low opex and no plans to expand (they'll buy instead in China, if opportunity presents itself - do they have money for it?). Now, not so good. Very low cash position, still. Still low ASPs (relative to others). I did not get vibes of them being profitable (unlike from TSL and CSIQ calls) this year. However if they will, stock should fly due to low float.

[Guest Lepv123]

Thanks for your thoughts pg6solar. It says that for the full year 2013, total solar module shipments are expected to be between 1.2 GW and 1.5 GW, and total project development scale is expected to be between 200 MW and 300 MW. The Company expects to maintain in-house annual silicon wafer, solar cell and solar module production capacity at approximately 1,200 MW each by the end of 2013. How is this compared to what is expected?

[pg6solar 113]

All it means that they'll be 100% utilized, which is great (but so are TSL, CSIQ, SOL, YGE). They do have low opex. ASPs will determine their profitability. They are confident they will be a survivor (thanks God). As before, low float will move PPS fast and greatly. Direction will depending on ASPs(profits or still losses) .

[Guest Klothilde]

OMG all-in costs of 54 cents ! 45 for non-si and 9 for si. I don't like the leverage but in terms of costs they are rock & rolling.

[pg6solar 113]

Unfortunately, their ASPs are likewise. It remain to be seen how successful they'll be in diversifying into higher ASPs markets.

[dydo 1,558]

If they can do it other Chinese can (processing). If the others can get higher ASP, than things are moving in right direction.

[Guest Bodhi]

I know thoughts have been posted about the FSLR.... but i'm really not seeing how its a good thing for the china 11? Aside from the 'PV won the race', which isn't entirely true, how exactly does this help? I know yesterday was 80% short covering, which in the long term is good, but am i missing something here? Thanks! KW

[Guest Lepv123]

PPS-wise, where do you see JKS linger around for now in your opinion? If only they could increase the ASP we'll be golden!

[Guest sony1]

Wellwell, maybe next spring then, or summer.

[pg6solar 113]

That is not true. 1. They were referring to Jinko only, which is mostly selling poly crystalling modules, which carries lower ASP than mono. 2. They did state that they see a good visibility into 13Q3 and expect their ASP to "slightly recover" before maybe slightly dipping again for 13Q4. Regardless, based on what they guided for the year - .52-.53 cost vs. .57-.59 ASP - about 10%GM, IMHO not enough to be profitable.

[pg6solar 113]

One can not always believe what they read: http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/jinkosolar-sees-huge-2012-losses_100010847/#axzz2Q4xD0SiI The whole article repeated the PR, but that last sentence!!! : "The company failed to issue any guidance for 2013." Jinko clearly gave Q1 and the full 2013 year shipments guidance.

[pg6solar 113]

Now, interpretation of the same ER call from PV-Tech: http://www.pv-tech.org/news/jinkosolar_guides_module_shipments_ahead_of_capacity Very accurate. Also notice the titles of both. It seems that PV-mag wants to emphasize the bad, while PV-Tech clearly sees positive developments.

[Guest Klothilde]

If they can do it other Chinese can (processing). If the others can get higher ASP, than things are moving in right direction.

That's a very good point and leads me to another question that I'm struggling with: Why are JKS's non-si costs significantly lower than YGE's and TSL's even though the latter ones have double the capacity and a way longer track record in the market ??? Even the non-si goals for year-end 2013 are much lower for JKS. JKS targets 40 cents, while YGE and TSL target 45 cents. Anybody have a clue on what's going on here?

[explo 706]

JKS have newer capacity, fully utilized.

[Dan 17]

give to YGE some $$.. they will buy more machines give to JKS some $$.. they will upgrade their machines

[dydo 1,558]

I found more negative articles on Chinese in the PV-Mag recently. Not sure why, they are generally neutral.

[dydo 1,558]

600MW of Panda platform (imho) costing more using still old process. They could be upgrading to to recent formats offered by ECN but I am not sure, if they will ( my opinion) On the other hand TSL could be in the same place with Jinko if fully utilized (more so expectation on my part)

[Guest Klothilde]

600MW of Panda platform (imho) costing more using still old process. They could be upgrading to to recent formats offered by ECN but I am not sure, if they will ( my opinion) On the other hand TSL could be in the same place with Jinko if fully utilized (more so expectation on my part)

thxs for your thoughts to you and explo. YGE guided 15% of Q4 production to be Panda, so costs of Panda must be quite high indeed (incl underutilization) if this is to explain a large chunk of the cost difference. TSL presumably was @48 cents in Q4 ajusting for unterutilization. One thing I noticed with JKS is a humongous disconnect between the stated production cost and the derived COGS when factoring with shipment figures. Assuming the 54 cents all-in break down into 9 / 12 / 14 / 19 I get aggregate COGS of: Modules: 252.3 x 0.54 = $136.2M Wafers: 25.3 x 0.21 = $5.3M Cells: 24.3 x 0.35 = $8.5M Total: $150.0M This compares with reported COGS of $180.3M, i.e. a $30M gap, which seems quite high to me even when accounting for inventory carrying and inventory write-down. Anybody have any thoughts on this?

[dydo 1,558]

YGE guided 15% of Q4 production to be Panda, so costs of Panda must be quite high indeed (incl underutilization) if this is to explain a large chunk of the cost difference.

HI there, I think their objective is full utilization, therefore the impact of 600MW is stopping further improvement below $0.45. I think you are right, that cost is high, but the ECNs upgrades or new ways of doing it are not in place. Not sure what is happening there, possibly benefit of upgrade does not outweigh capex?

[Guest eysteinh]

Opex costs anyone? (keep in mind this is ALL opex and also only spread out over modules.)

[Guest ILOVEPV]

why more negative than usual? Because (and unfortunately) these respected journals are gradually becoming a part of a stock market fever. I wanted to refrain from comments on share prices but since you and others want me to continue let me tell a couple of things. 1. Chi 10 are under double pressure compared to their US based counterparts. It is partially a currency/trade war, partially impossibility to control everything. STP madness is another example how the WS handles stocks - expect the most unexpected. do not be too surprised learning that STP can become the best perform chinese solar stock of the year (just prior to BK). 2. What stock out of Chi 10 differs from others in terms of smart business allocation? SOL. A question is why SOL is under a "special" additional pressure down? An answer I've got recently from a person who brought me to this industry. He told me that the WS does not like those too smart; his exact words were "we do not like "smarty pants".

[dydo 1,558]

http://ir.jinkosolar.com/zhen/en/press.php

[dydo 1,558]

I just realized that Jinko has $50M bond payable in April. So much for projects.

[explo 706]

Wow, thanks. Still they kept their ultra-low cash level. I guess either draw credit is no problem or they could have some issues. They got that 58m loan though to help. Still projects are cash consuming, they run a tight ship.

[explo 706]

http://services.corporate-ir.net/SEC/Document.Service?id=P3VybD1hSFIwY0RvdkwyRndhUzUwWlc1cmQybDZZWEprTG1OdmJTOWtiM2R1Ykc5aFpDNXdhSEEvWVdOMGFXOXVQVkJFUmlacGNHRm5aVDA0T0RnNU56QXpKbk4xWW5OcFpEMDFOdz09JnR5cGU9MiZmbj1KaW5rb1NvbGFyQ28ucGRm

[explo 706]

258k electricity sales

[dydo 1,558]

$114M positive cash flow, Nice

[explo 706]

Gotta read the fine prints:

On January 29, 2013, the Group issued unsecured six-year bonds with an aggregate principal amount of RMB800 million which bears a fixed annual interest rate of 8.99% and will mature on January 29, 2019. At the end of the third year in the life of the bonds, the Group has the option to raise the interest rate by up to 100 basis points, and the bondholders will have the right to require the Company to repurchase all or part of their bonds, at such time. The proceeds from the issuance of the bonds were originally intended to be used for capital expenditure of solar cell and modules facility. The Group has changed the purpose of use of proceeds to develop solar power plant plants with RMB 640 million and for working capital purpose of RMB 160 million prior to the required approval by the bond holders as well as filing with the relevant government authority. A bond holders meeting held on April 25, 2013 approved the change of the usage and as of the date of report, the Group is in the process of the filing with relevant government authority.

Risk profile of use of that RMB 800m proceeds have completely changed.

[Guest Klothilde]

What's up with those interest rates? Didn't Franky from Solarworld say that Chi companies get free financing? I'm confused now.