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I made a strategic shift in my stock holdings. I moved all CSIQ to JKS. I'm now 20/40/40 JASO/JKS/FSLR.

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5 hours ago, explo said:

I made a strategic shift in my stock holdings. I moved all CSIQ to JKS. I'm now 20/40/40 JASO/JKS/FSLR.

Nice flip, already in the money

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On 2017-03-09 at 7:59 PM, pg6solar said:

Thanks for sharing, Explo. Any particular concern with CSIQ "longer" term or you're planning to re-enter after the expected drop on the 21st?

Basically the concern with CSIQ after JKS deleveraged balance sheet and reach close to $30 book value per share is that it stands out in valuation. I did an IRR analysis of shareholder value growth the past 11 years (we are getting some significant history to work with now) and the rank is: JKS, FSLR, CSIQ, JASO. Then looking at PB you have: CSIQ, FSLR, JKS, JASO. Between CSIQ and JKS CSIQ is higher priced for less performance. The other have either less risky BS or bigger discount motivating their PPS.

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Anyone looked at HQCL, it has no volume but it is really cheap, it came down from crazy evaluations. I watched gain two dollars to drop back down to this price in last 30 days. Thoughts?

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HQCL - can not buy in and more importantly no way to get out (as you said no volume). Why not wait a week for a possible big JA deep followed by the one for CSIQ?

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2 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

HQCL - can not buy in and more importantly no way to get out (as you said no volume). Why not wait a week for a possible big JA deep followed by the one for CSIQ?

Thanks for the view, this is why I asked. Yes impossible to get a good position and hard to get out. What is your take on movement with JASO and CSIQ, HQCL also reports, I see US ones are caving today,

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Now that I'm out of TSL, I do not trade (but still hold small positions in JKS, JA, CSIQ with much larger FSLR, which I'm stuck in for now) any solars (there's no meaningful delta) and just waiting for retest of lows from November.

If you want something to "trade", look no further that DRYS (not a "recommendation", but extremely volatile).  

Edited by pg6solar

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It seems strange that panel (and other component) manufacturers and installers of solar are both having trouble with profitability (or is it just the publicly traded ones?).  And the yieldcos still appear volatile.  Hard to see where the money is being made...

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I was hoping with Brookfield buying GLBL and taking ownership of TERP as a sponsor, yieldco consolidation would take place in prices. However interest rate fear and general misunderstanding on the operational aspect of yieldcos is to continue in my view. I guess there is truth to growth concerns for CAFD, and PEGI, mind you PEGI could surprise to the good here, but there is no concern with NEP and NYLD.  I think NEP will grow with the dividend, but still, it is too volatile, most likely because of being thinly traded.

 

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There is relatively big bid on NEP at 30.84, I bought my shares back at 30.85, see if I can trade this thing. I really like this stock.

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I agree there is a very little inspiration for building a position under current conditions in manufacturers.

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Index funds will shed them, timing based on rebalancing dates. Form4 (mentioned already in FSLR discussion) has exec selling at ~$32.50 , only additions seemed to be the stock they get 'for free'.

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I wouldn't put too much faith in insider selling as a predictor--as I'm sure you know, insiders sell all the time for various reasons (taxes, need money for something else, etc.).  So insider selling is not necessarily an indicator that said insiders expect stock price deterioration.

A better indicator is insider BUYING--as opposed to selling, there's only one reason an insider would plunk down extra cash (not stock option grants) to buy their company stock--they expect it to go up.  Lack of FSLR insider buying would indicate company execs expect any recovery to be slow at best.

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On 2017-03-10 at 1:31 PM, explo said:

I did an IRR analysis of shareholder value growth the past 11 years

FSLR sell filled. JKS buy filled. JASO sell filled. Based on changing reference price for relative weighting from close on August 24 2015 to the PTs derived from the above IRR analysis.

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Sorry, but nothing makes sense anymore. Selling FSLR for loss with PT of $46 or selling JASO with PT of $8+, while buying JKS with a PT of $28. Because JKS in % terms has the biggest upside to its PT from the current PPS? What happened to previously expressed displeasure with JKS selling Power business on a cheap?

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1 hour ago, pg6solar said:

Sorry, but nothing makes sense anymore. Selling FSLR for loss with PT of $46 or selling JASO with PT of $8+, while buying JKS with a PT of $28. Because JKS in % terms has the biggest upside to its PT from the current PPS? What happened to previously expressed displeasure with JKS selling Power business on a cheap?

It was just a small rebalance as I wanted to change my reference price for weight adjustment. It's just a technical thing, not tactical or strategic.

Yes I don't like that they sold their development arm, but they are still highest performer and I don't want to exclude the possibility that they will continue project development and plant ownership but with full stake.

FSLR sell was shares recently bought at same price. I think FSLR timing-wise is a buy here, JKS neutral/buy and JASO a sell just by looking at very recent moves.

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22 minutes ago, explo said:

I think FSLR timing-wise is a buy here, JKS neutral/buy and JASO a sell just by looking at very recent moves.

Agree on FSLR (though I'm still waiting for maybe an other 10%) and JASO (started selling my small exposure). I would not buy JKS here over CSIQ at current PPS for both, especially if CSIQ can deliver $4B revenue as guided.

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36 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

Agree on FSLR (though I'm still waiting for maybe an other 10%) and JASO (started selling my small exposure). I would not buy JKS here over CSIQ at current PPS for both, especially if CSIQ can deliver $4B revenue as guided.

Agree on CSIQ vs JKS being the better tactical buy here, but I already moved all CSIQ to JKS for more strategic reasons. JKS is now a clear leader and lessexpensive than CSIQ. FSLR and JASO was always different profile than the CSIQ and JKS profile. I really like CSIQ with tons of international project assets and pipeline. There are still some uncertainties around it.

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Sure CSIQ is more expensive than JKS. Canadian being a true "Canadian" incorporated company with stock shares instead of ADRs on the US exchanges has to count for some thing. FSLR is still significantly more expensive than CN3 combined (even after being booted from S&P), with a lot of risk associated with series 6. 

Edited by pg6solar

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4 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

Sure CSIQ is more expensive than JKS. Canadian being a true "Canadian" incorporated company with stock shares instead of ADRs on the US exchanges has to count for some thing. FSLR is still significantly more expensive than CN3 combined (even after being booted from S&P), with a lot of risk associated with series 6. 

It depends on whether you look at market cap or enterprise value. The enterprise value of CSIQ is significantly higher than FSLR at the moment. Having net cash instead of net debt puts a floor or at least cushion on PPS.

You hold much more FSLR than CN3 so you must see some reward to match that risk.

 

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Oh No! All my FSLR is in tax free account (the only holding there) from $57 (when it lost 25% last year from $75) and here's zero benefit for me to sell for a loss in that account. If I transfer securities from tax free IRA account to a regular taxable account I can take realized loss but would have to pay tax plus penalty on distribution (US tax code is a bit too complex in this specific case for non-US person. and even for most Americans as well). After they scraped series 5, I would never buy them until $25 the most.

Edited by pg6solar

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I like how Travis writes Chinese harm themselves, yet SunPower and First Solar move to third party sales is the timing masterpiece. Isn't this jump to a shark pool?

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

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