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Trading Strategy

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Now that I'm out of TSL, I do not trade (but still hold small positions in JKS, JA, CSIQ with much larger FSLR, which I'm stuck in for now) any solars (there's no meaningful delta) and just waiting for retest of lows from November.

If you want something to "trade", look no further that DRYS (not a "recommendation", but extremely volatile).  

Edited by pg6solar

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It seems strange that panel (and other component) manufacturers and installers of solar are both having trouble with profitability (or is it just the publicly traded ones?).  And the yieldcos still appear volatile.  Hard to see where the money is being made...

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I was hoping with Brookfield buying GLBL and taking ownership of TERP as a sponsor, yieldco consolidation would take place in prices. However interest rate fear and general misunderstanding on the operational aspect of yieldcos is to continue in my view. I guess there is truth to growth concerns for CAFD, and PEGI, mind you PEGI could surprise to the good here, but there is no concern with NEP and NYLD.  I think NEP will grow with the dividend, but still, it is too volatile, most likely because of being thinly traded.

 

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There is relatively big bid on NEP at 30.84, I bought my shares back at 30.85, see if I can trade this thing. I really like this stock.

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I agree there is a very little inspiration for building a position under current conditions in manufacturers.

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Anyone care to play a predictability game for JASO and CSIQ?

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FSLR is removed from S&P 500, any fund actions forced by this?

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Index funds will shed them, timing based on rebalancing dates. Form4 (mentioned already in FSLR discussion) has exec selling at ~$32.50 , only additions seemed to be the stock they get 'for free'.

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I wouldn't put too much faith in insider selling as a predictor--as I'm sure you know, insiders sell all the time for various reasons (taxes, need money for something else, etc.).  So insider selling is not necessarily an indicator that said insiders expect stock price deterioration.

A better indicator is insider BUYING--as opposed to selling, there's only one reason an insider would plunk down extra cash (not stock option grants) to buy their company stock--they expect it to go up.  Lack of FSLR insider buying would indicate company execs expect any recovery to be slow at best.

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On 2017-03-10 at 1:31 PM, explo said:

I did an IRR analysis of shareholder value growth the past 11 years

FSLR sell filled. JKS buy filled. JASO sell filled. Based on changing reference price for relative weighting from close on August 24 2015 to the PTs derived from the above IRR analysis.

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