Jump to content
Guest Klothilde

First Solar (FSLR)

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

I would agree if we had the risk of a big discrepancy between market values and contract values (meaning 20% or more like in 2011), but unless the tariffs are dropped I don't see this happening. Currently mono-PERC sells for around 38 Cts in the States.  Let it drop 10% to 34-35 Cts in 2020 with the tariff step-down, that would be roughly at par with the prices that FSLR has locked in for its backlog. Also I don't think the CNs have the leeway to go down with prices much further given that they are already writing losses or are barely break-even.  Some companies like GCL even expect a price rebound.

The capital preservation point is let's be open to circumstances evolving and not rely too much on something:

17 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Nothing can change their top line in 2020, not even the meteorite that killed the dinosaurs. 

In early 2011 a lot of investors salivated over the fixed prices as input costs fell and they did the math on the margin impact. Of course those bloated margins to one mid part of the chain being accommodated by the rest of the chain was never realized and pulling up a chart of how investors re-priced our favourite stocks in 2011-2012 could be a sobering history lesson. Even poly suppliers had to change prices for their fixed price and volume "take or pay" contracts. When companies try to reassure investors with messages of "sold out at fixed prices" it is usually time to take the money and run in this industry.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

@Klothilde 

Do you know what the capex per watt is going to wind up being for S6 modules when they have it ramped? What is the life cycle they are expecting for the equiptment? 3 years? 5 years? 8 years?

 

JKS indicated for mono wafer to module Capex is around $0.12 for  Perc and $0.10 for non Perc. Based on a 5 year life span that is about $0.02/watt capex. They will likely use 8 years and come in at $0.015.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know it off the top, last figures I remember are 25-30 cts/W greenfield.  Their useful life of machinery has traditionally been estimated at 7 years.

I'm not taking those Junko figures at face value, it's not in line with data from serious companies such as Longi and Tongwei.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jinko is not a "serious" company????

I guess it's easy to criticize someone else's business model if you just choose not to believe their figures.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've lost count of how many times they have lied to investors.  I buy their audited financial statements but not much more than that.  That's just me.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Understood.  But again, the proof is in the reported earnings.  And even if you're 100% justified in disregarding their forecast numbers, the fact remains that just making up your own numbers instead isn't any better.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So good old Goldman Sachs once again raises.  Buy to Conviction Buy (they REALLY mean it this time and PROMISE not to sell it off this time) and from $64 -> $75.  A lot must have changed for them in a few weeks.  What, they're upgrading FSLR every month this year?  What's next "Strong Conviction Buy" with $85 target?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First Solar analyst commentary at Roth Capital  First Solar price target raised to $75 from $60 at Roth Capital. Roth Capital analyst Philip Shen raised his price target for First Solar to $75 from $60 ahead of quarterly results. The analyst continues to see upside to the stock as he expects the tight module supply in the U.S. to sustain through 2019 and support bookings in 2021 and beyond. Eventually, Shen expects bookings beyond 2020 to support further capacity expansion, though this will likely come into focus in the second half of 2019 and does not expect an announcement on the Q1 call. He reiterates a Buy rating on the shares.
 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Donate

    Please donate to support this community. We appreciate all donations!

    Donate Sidebar by DevFuse
  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      32
    • Total Posts
      91,438
  • Who's Online (See full list)



×
×
  • Create New...