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SCSolar last won the day on March 18

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  1. What no comments on Jinko's ER. They fell 100MW below their low end guidance. You remove a $6M tax reversals and the $10MCVD reversals and they are at zero profits. Their belnded ASP looks to be around just over $0.30 with costs around $0.265. Mono is set to pull down further. Their 2019 guidance is 14-15GW. That is an increase of 22-32% over the past year. That is similar to last years increases that they fell short of. This is a company that is operationally profitless after standard expenses and interest. Yet they are pushing volumes over profits. They are basically using accounting gimicks to show profits. Atleast CSIQ actually made a profit from their own operations last year and not from check book accounting gimicks.
  2. I believe CSIQ addressed some of the issues in a round about way. If they are locked in contract prices in USD purchase price and the Rmb rises, then their costs increase and their margins will decrease. This I believe is what lead them to mention a big Forex loss coming as the Rmb appreciated in value unexpectedly. If they were hedging contracts based on an expected Rmb drop due to climate in China and it goes up, that is a double whammy. FSLR will not have that issue. In fact the condition of an increasing RMB is good for FSLR as it forces the CN manufactures to sell at a higher ASP for new sales.
  3. They should make a profit for the year. They will have a sizable loss in Q1 with guidance suggesting $80M+/- gross profit. Then you add that they have warned of a big forex loss in the con call due to the sudden appreciation of the yen. That makes purchase contracts they have signed less profitable.
  4. based on Guidance, they might be targeting a cost to manufacture around $0.23 for 2019. It would appear they are looking at 50% or around $1.8B revenue being Energy revenues This would suggest much of the sales in 2018 are going to be COD sales and not NTP sales. These projects should be in the 10-15% margin range. From this using 15-16% margins on modules and projects gross profit may be between $550M to $600M. Opex at $450M Interest at $90-$110 profits looks slim
  5. Forward guidance really sucks. Projecting 16-18% margins and 1.35GW of shipments on $400M for Q1 revenues.(you are now seing the impact of lower ASP as contracts expired). Guidance of only 7.4-7.8GW in shipments for 2019. That is a 10% increase. They are cautioning that due to lower ASP suppressing the revenues from growing year over year that profits in 2019 will be down compared to 2018. Great earnings bad future guidance could be a bad day on the markets for them.
  6. earnings out . $901M revenue 30% margins including CVD reversal and profits of net income of $1.81EPS. They had over 2GW of modules recognized in the revenue stream. They disposed of about 900MW of projects. If my estimates are anywhere within range, these projects sold for around $275M depending on how they account for the modules in the projects for revenue.(NTPvsCOS) That is around $0.30 on the Watt. This would indicate the company is claiming only their owned portion and not their financed portions of the projects.This lowers revenues but will look like high margins as described in the ER http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2018-results
  7. Trina solar is in mass production of 415MW modules. They claim this will save 4-8% on the BOS. from compared to 370W systems. That 15% savings FSLR claimed on BOS was based on their legacy Series 4 modules which had far higher BOS costs due to their sizze and poor efficiency.. So much for that BOS savings meaning anything for FSLR in their sales pitch. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190321/970398.shtml According to estimates, the component power is increased from 370 watts to 415 watts, which can reduce the Balance of System (BOS) by 4.5% to 8.5%, and reduce the cost of electricity by 2.5% to 4.6%. Taking China's 100MW project as an example, the use of 415-watt components can reduce the cost of BOS by about 0.12 yuan per watt compared to 370-watt components, and reduce the cost of electricity by about 2.7%
  8. I am with you. I was looking to buy in the low to sub $20 range for DQ. The 2020 earnings suggests $3-mid $5 range. That places an upside to $42 with a PE of 8. At $37 it is to costly due to industry volatility. If you are hoping for $6 a share with a $1.75 ASP to cost spread of last quarter for a full year then there is upside to $48ish. I won't bet on that swing. CSIQ - I bought in the $12 range but sold out in the $14 range. I do not see future metrics as strong as it is right now as the old contracts expire and they dispose of the JPN assets the next year. I can only see the tumbling of margins compared to the mid 25% they have had the past 2Q's over the next year. I do not see them offsetting with volume shipments in 2020 or 2021. I have a feeling they will become second Tier to others that will supplant them in China as volume producers. JKS - is strange. They have been low margin with near zero profits outside of accounting reversals and subsidy payments. Their issue of low margins can be corrected by bringing online more capacity instead of using so much outsourced modules. You have to believe the reason for the outsourced modules is due to poor cash flow to pay for expansions. Even with 15GW sales and 14% margins, they are unlikely to have much if any profits to justify their $21 price tag. They need 15-16% margins for 2020 based on ASP pricing trends to earn $1 to $2 without subsides forex or hedging. I was a buyer at $8 and sold in the $12-$13 range. At $21 I do not see it as justifiable. Cheers happy investing
  9. SCSolar

    Beyond Solar

    I am always reminded of what my dad has always said about investing. It's always good to be paying taxes, it beats the alternative.
  10. fine, you can knock down about $20M off the gross. That potential upside to the equivalent of a $1.25 spread or $3.25-$5.25 EPS . A PE of 8 places a stock price of 26-42. Not the dire consequences of losses over losses over losses you want to imply.
  11. SCSolar

    Beyond Solar

    Look on the bright side, others confirmed values you saw from your analyiss and the buyouts should give a nice short term premium spike.
  12. You are reading the tea leaves wrong. They do not need a $2 spread in 2020. They needed a $2 spread at past 6KMT production levels. For 2019 they are guiding 37-40KMT. They will earn $1 a share on a $1.50 spread before subsidy payments and taxes. In October Nov they will have the Phase 4A starting trial production. They should be ramped 70KMT come January 2020(9 months for now). That 70KMT will produce around 80-90KMT of poly. At a $1 spread that is $80-$90M gross. SGNA is $8.2M today and might go to say $12M. Interest is $2M a Q. That is $56M expenses when 70KMT is ramped. They will earn $24-$34M before taxes adjustments and subsidies in 2020 based on a $1 spread. That is $2-$3 in earnings. For every $0.025 above that $1 spread they will gross an added $20M that goes straight to the bottom line. A $0.50 spread could add $3-$4 a share potential upside to $5-$7 a share in 2020. That and think what happens to FSLR with Poly cost and the rest of the CN costs dropping 30-40% over the next 2-4 years. That is what you should be worried about.
  13. That is wonderful news as they are suggesting production costs will be below $6 per Kg in the near future. That is over a 40% cost reduction from the $10.50 costs they have for Poly today. "the company's high-purity crystalline silicon production costs will be further reduced to less than 40,000 yuan / ton. Compared with the production cost of more than 70,000 yuan/ton at home and abroad,"
  14. Have you ever looked at American Tower(AMT?) in the communications sector. They started buying wireless towers from the Telcos back in the early 90's. They lease the towers back to all the Telcos and others. They dominate this sector. They are dividend paying and a nice sustained market cap growth.
  15. Lets not forget most of those contracts that elevated the prices in 2018 for Jinko and CSIQ in the later half of 2018 are gone. New contracts from July on are at much lower ASPs globally. That would suggest margins will go down through the year.
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