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About SCSolar

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  1. Trading Solars

    What 5 to 6 GW pipeline? Their August investor presentation shows 120MW in the U.S in late stage and 3.3GW of early to mid stage(slide 9). It is unknown how much of the 3.3GW they will ultimately win or approve. http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/IROL/19/196781/CSIQ-IR-Presentation-August-2017-v-Final1-.pdf The 3.3GW of early to mid stage projects are projects where they have been brought an RFP, have reviewed and approved a competing bid to offer or they believe there is an opportunity to bid on a project but the details have not been brought to the review committee to approve bidding on.(slide 7 note 2) "Early to mid-stage of development: includes only those projects that have been approved by our internal Investment Committee or projects that are expected to be brought to the Investment Committee in the near term."
  2. Trading Solars

    Candadian solar announced Ku branded modules in May that uses half sized cells http://investors.canadiansolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=196781&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2277549 The data sheets are available on their webste. https://www.canadiansolar.com/en/solar-panels/ku-modules.html Jinko Solar announced a similar Half Cell module on Sep 11. branded as the Eagle HC module http://ir.jinkosolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=234421&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2299619 The Data sheets are available on their website for 60 Cell Mono and Poly but not 72 cell. https://www.jinkosolar.com/download_356.html
  3. Trading Solars

    Page 1 and 2 section on SPI 2017 takeaways SOLAR-SEP2017-MercomSolarReport18Sep2017.pdf
  4. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Didn't they sell the plant business in Q3 and give adjusted numbers?
  5. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Can anyone explain Jinko Solars general administrations drop of 50%? They were at $35M in Q3 and in Q4. Suddenly in Q117 they were $16M + and in Q217 $18M and change for the general administration item in the operational expenses.
  6. Do you recall any solar companies that have ever vested their convertible options?
  7. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    You are suggesting $160M in revenues from the US and Japanese projects. Do you believe these are profitable immediately or would you believe they are GAAP losses like the Yieldcos? It looks like they will generate a nice positive cash flow or CAFD per year.
  8. JA Solar (JASO)

    These stocks peaked in 2014. They are running on a 7 to 8 month peak to peak cycle since. With each peak lower than the prior peaks. The most recent peak to peak cycle was in February 2016 to the peak of a few days/weeks ago. You can see these trends in most solar stock. Here is a yahoo chart for FSLR SPWR JKS and CSIQ https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/CSIQ#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%3D
  9. JA Solar (JASO)

    Disdaniel I read the transcripts from Q1 and Q2. Jaso indicated the ASP would be up a bit for Q2 and the costs would be down slightly. That tends to indicate an increase in GM. In fact Q2 had an increase of 120 basis point from 11.7% to 12.9%. That builds trust in accuracy of their comments for me.. In Q2 for Q3 guidance they suggest the ASP will be slightly down and material costs would be slightly up. Those 2 dynamics would lead one to believe the margins will decrease. How much decrease is up for debate, but I would not be surprised for it to drop to 12% or as low as 11%. Jaso covered why the margins will fall in detail. The first detail was the ASP in China was $0.38 and they expect in Q3 it to be $0.37+/-. The China business accounts for 50% of their shipments. That would suggest a half cent drop in their ASP unless they can offset it with higher priced regional sales. The second point was they signed contracts for materials that they thought would be lower priced. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4101011-ja-solar-holdings-jaso-q2-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single Herman Zhao For this quarter, actually, China market ASP was little over $0.38 with some fraction that this quarter. And next quarter, in Q3, we expect the price will be coming down slightly, probably around $0.37. So basically for Tier 1 pricing in the range of renminbi with tax RMB2.8 to RMB2.9, so that’s Tier 1 pricing. So if you translate it to U.S. dollar that’s $0.37 plus or minus for China. Philip Shen And how do you see margins evolving in Q3? Herman Zhao I think the margin in Q3 we think tend to lower due to the rising material costs. I think in the first half of this year, we expect a strong demand in China market probably will end in Q2. So that’s why based on that we expect the material costs will come down sometime for Q3. So that’s why when we send them orders, we expect the price will come down so we sign some deal. But now with the strong demand in China market and the material cost actually goes up that’s for wafer and also poly price come up little but as well. So with that, I think we’re going to have some stress in gross margin in Q3.
  10. JA Solar (JASO)

    Jaso did not mention a loss but they did indicate that the ASP was lower in China for Q3 by a penny and that material costs were going to be higher. They also indicated they signed contracts with pricing based on the expectation of the upstream supply costs dropping. From this they expect "stressed" margins. From the Seeking Alpha transcript. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4101011-ja-solar-holdings-jaso-q2-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single "I think the margin in Q3 we think tend to lower due to the rising material costs." "I think we’re going to have some stress in gross margin in Q3" "So Q3 for China market for our sales is around $0.38, but Q3 will be $0.37 something in that nature." "For our Q2, blended ASP is $0.38 with some fractions to be exact it's $0.383 Jaso had 12.9% margins in Q2 and 11.7% in Q1 It is likely that the margins fall into the Q1 range or below. If you use a slight decline in ASP and a slight increase in costs of 1/4 cent, then the margins would fall back to 11.7%. If you use a 1/2 cent ASP decline your margins would drop to 11%. Given top end guidance at 1700MW with some being cells, the revenue likely comes in the range of $660-$670M. 11.7% margins on $670M is $78M in gross profit. 11% margins would be $73.7M in gross profit Operational expenses in Q2 where $76M. Interest in Q2 was $12M Other Income was $2M. Total Expenses and Interest = $86M If you consider that most of the shipments in Q2 were to China and Asia Pac, then a reduction in shipments for Q3 guidance might shave off $6-$12M from the Opex. If they increase shipments to Europe and the U.S., then this may have a negative impact on Opex. As you can see buy using high end shipments with the least ASP reduction and price increases, the company is at a $10M loss unless they can reduce Opex. It is also possible that even with certain Opex reductions, they may still post a loss. The more concerning point should be Q4 ASP and demand that is hinted by Johnson as impacting results more than Q3.
  11. Trading Solars

    Yes, those number are far more precise and current than the ones I presented. What this points out is the value of the module business. The company has total shareholder equity of $952,3M. If you remove the plant values, then shareholder equity in the module business is $164.3M. With conversations of recent and your Jaso post of today , there is the suggestion that the module business is not profitable. That would imply that this equity for the company is at risk of heading negative from their core module operations as the sustained down turn of low ASP and limited gross income per watt runs through 2018.. In fact I might go as far to propose that the $164M in equity not related to current projects is made up entirely of profits from the Canadian projects sold in years past as well as the Recurrent portfolios sold so far. This postulation would lead to the conclusion that Canadian Solar has Zero shareholder equity from the module manufacturing business after 10 years of existence and has in fact lost significant shareholder equity in that time period due to the core module manufacturing. We know there is currently little profit in projects outside of the Japanese pipeline. We know that most are being bid and built at $1/watt range. I believe this gets back to Gordon Johnson' comments regarding CSIQ valuations once they dispose of the recent projects. You then have a core business of modules that is profitless or worse since inception and limited profitability in a project development company.
  12. Trading Solars

    I come to a different conclusion in book values and share price. If one takes project asset valuation less accrued debt. CAFD has nearly $1B in asset valuation in this instance vs CSIQ having near $300M in out of pocket investments for their projects.
  13. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Thanks for the link. One of the links has the IPO information and the FIT. Ichigo t averaged of 38.8Yen. I guess if you want an apples to apples comparison then one needs to know what the average FIT is for the projects in the CSIQ IPO. The June 2014 presentation from CSIQ had an average FIT of 36 Yen. The twoj larger projects of 45 and 25MW had a 40 Yen FIT. http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/IROL/19/196781/CSIQ_IR_PPT_June_10_2014_Final.pdf
  14. Hanwha Q CELLS (HQCL)

    Mono Perc has LID and LeTID issues as well. It is not as pronounced as the multi wafer Perc that can lose 8-10%. HQCL stated in their con call that mono Perc also has LeTID issues. This is from the Seeking Alpha transcript. "The LeTID effect was long believed to only appeaser on multicrystalline wafers, however this is not the case. Hanwha Q Cells featured a presentation at the R&D conference 'Silicon PV' in Germany in April showing that LeTID can also significantly reduce the energy yield of monocrystalline PERC solar cells. Based on tests we conducted on PERC modules from competitors we are concerned about the quality level of PERC models. So our recommendation to anyone using PERC modules is to test for LeTID through count injection of about 1 ampere at 75 degree centigrade in a climate chamber for several days." The PV Insights article also indicates that LID is not just a multi issue. "Trupke, who is also the Deputy Director of the UNSW’s PV Centre of Excellence, did caution that some manufacturer claims that LID in mono and multi PERC cells has been “solved” should be treated with caution." The last link from researchgate indicates "All cells fabricated with four different ingot sources have high possibility of over 3% LID in output power, and the oxygen concentration is not correlated with power drop. Only one of the seven cell types surveyed from the worldwide market has LID less than 3%"
  15. Hanwha Q CELLS (HQCL)

    Robert What do you make of the LeTID discussion by HQCL in their conference call. They spent 3 paragraphs on the topic and suggested that the degradation was not just Multi Perc. HQCL suggested that many of their PERC competitors have the issues in both Multi and Mono cells in which customers or the industry should set up testing for. I know from reading CSIQ new Black Silicon modules that they are using half sized wafers to reduce the impact of LeTID. Any idea what competitors that HQCL is talking about and do you see many recalls in the future from legacy PERC sales that are now or will be failing warranty? https://seekingalpha.com/article/4097580-hanwha-q-cells-co-ltd-s-hqcl-management-q2-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single https://www.q-cells.com/dam/jcr:d7f9a746-82cf-4e21-a833-8b4e2374bf33/Hanwha_Q_CELLS_White_Paper_POLY_Q.ANTUM_VS._POLY_PERC_2017-03_Rev02_EN.pdf https://www.pv-magazine.com/magazine-archive/emerging-fix-for-lid-in-multi-perc/ https://www.researchgate.net/publication/306031861_LIGHT_INDUCED_DEGRADATION_OF_P-MONO_PERC_FROM_INGOT_CELL_MODULE_TO_SYSTEM