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SCSolar

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SCSolar last won the day on December 6

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  1. Hold on, you double counted!!! The CN has shipping and insurance included in Opex which is covered in your 4.4 ct margin. That 4.4 margin is higher than the 4.0 Opex per watt they had in Q3. You also used a higher cost of $0.22 than you calculated $0.21.
  2. Yes as usual I consider your future cost assumptions a little high. If your quoting me, lets be clear, the quote you cited was for Q4 2019 and not 2020. It is also a blended cost that includes hundreds of MW of OEM panels that are lower margins and higher costs. That blended cost also uses higher ASP for upstream components. Now to fully quote me, you can go down further in that same thread in which I state " 2020 Internal production 16GW(4GW per Q avg) A continued decline of 15% through the year places an ASP Avg ASP = $0.2745*0.85=$0.233 Internal Cost low = $0.233*.75 = $0.175 Internal High Cost = $0.233*.1866" My thread in which I suggest good profits at under a $0.28 ASP is consistent with my costs I have been suggesting for the future.
  3. Hey Pete Why was Enphase down so much yesterday? They are inverters and not panels. You would think the bifacial news would have no impact on market price.
  4. 2012/24 tariffs is Chinese made products - Lots of capacity was setup to skirt these tariffs. Chinese 25% tariffs are only Chinese modules. 201 is global solar modules except bifacial Section 201 is 25% for the next month then falls to 20%. Poly Perc Cells can be bought for $0.095. Add another $0.08 in module cost and you have a $0.175 cost. A $0.22 ASP with a 25% tariff is $0.275 with a $0.045 profit. Add a penny if you want to the costs and you still have $0.035 which is more than enough to pay for shipping and insurance. A $0.23 ASP with a 20% tariff is $0.276. That is a $0.055 profit. Mono Perc cells are $0.02-$0.025 more. Mono Perc Cells are $0.115-$0.123 Costs for mono wafers is around $0.065 Cell processing is around $0.04 potentially less The cost for the added bifacial processing is a couple pennies more With Gobal demand headed towards Bifacial it makes sense to modify capacity added to avoid the 2012/14 trariffs. By the way Nrel suggested a 3 cent added cost for Bifacial modules back in 2018. http://bifipv-workshop.com/fileadmin/images/bifi/denver/presentations/5__Woodhouse-_module_pricing_and_energy_yield_bifiPV2018.pdf That was when they were suggesting costs to manufacture less Rnd and Opex was in the $0.34 vs $0.37 range. Reality check is cost are now 30% lower so that $0.03 is likely closer to $0.02.
  5. Twentyfold? That would take up all Wood Mackenzie demand forecast for non residential. That would be all commercial , ground mount and utility plants. https://www.woodmac.com/research/products/power-and-renewables/us-solar-market-insight/ But I get your point. Jinko is questioning Bifacial as whether it is just power generation from both sides, which could lead to just using a clear back sheeting and not bus bars. That would be a way around the 201 tariffs for all modules at virtually zero costs.
  6. Wood Mackenzie is forecasting 21GW of Bifacial demand by 2024.That may be very light. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/09/26/woodmac-bifacial-module-capacity-will-exceed-21-gw-by-2024/
  7. I have been trading in and out of CSIQ and JKS the past 2 weeks. I bought back in yesterday at open after selling out the day before. Still holding. I am expecting JKS and CSIQ to head back to the 20's.
  8. As I have stated with the low ASP and manufacturing costs, companies should be shipping as much as they can to the U.S. that has a higher ASP.. Multi can be selling for under $0.28 with the tariff and still be highly profitable. Mono add 1 or 2 cents. Now with the stay in the bifacial market, you have high efficiency products that create problems for FSLR able to be brought in at just pennies above their costs. That is why investing in a company reliant on protected industry has more downside risk than upside.
  9. Jinko sees 45% growth in the U.S. to 4GW in 2020. That is as big as FSLR market share I think. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-solar-giant-sees-booming-010000925.html China’s JinkoSolar Holding Co. Chief Financial Officer Charlie Cao expects U.S. demand for its products to surge nearly 45%, to 4 gigawatts, in 2020 as the Trump administration considers whether to move ahead with a scheduled 5% cut to duties on imported panels.
  10. Lets be clear Roth Capitol quotes PV Info link in their data analysis. I do not think that a major Analyst would use low quality data from PV InfoLink. https://www.pv-tech.org/news/longi-green-energy-revenue-and-profits-fall-in-q3-as-asp-declines-continue Figures from PV InfoLink reported today by ROTH Capital, indicated ASPs are down 44%, since the beginning of the year. Hobo is not an analyst and is making up his own numbers because he can not figure out how CSIQ numbers align with their data. Basically he has no clue on their ASP and none of it matches the companies comments on ASP. His theories in the past have been both right and wrong. More wrong than right in my opinion. That is why he vanished for several years. His theories on the impacts of ASP decline and over capacity in which he claimed Tier 1's would not be impacted back in the credit freeze was wrong. His claims that LDK was a great investment cost him and many on this board lots of red in their investments. Do your own anaylsis and supply supportive data. Klothilde for as much as she is a downside analyst on Csi has data points. I think her analysis of CSIQ ASP is inline with the company and earnings.
  11. Hmm Energy Trends Mono Poly $8.77 after VAT PV Insights Mono Poly $8.62 Energy Trends High Efficiency Poly $0.215 USD PVinsights High Efficiency Poly PErc $0.218 Energy Trends High Efficiency Mono $0.315 USD PvInsights High Efficiency Mono $0.227 To me, they look almost identical except for how they are estimating the price of High Efficiency Mono. Clearly the low price of PVinsights is not in line with Energy Trends but he high end price ranges are. I would gather PV Insights includes Tier 1 and Tier 2 in their costs and Energy Trends might only cover Tier 1 if anything. If Energy Trends is not taking into account Tier 2 pricings, then their data is skewed. That may be why the Current pricing for Mono is slightly above JKS ASP for Q3. Clearly 2 different sets of data points. I just noticed a Superior High Efficiency Mono on Energy Trends that seems to track the PVInsights pricing for High efficiency mono. So categories of Mono discrepancies like maybe N type vs PType on Energy Trends.
  12. Great news for DQ, The mono Poly is between $8.50-$9/KG. With their costs dropping to $6.50 that is a $2.25 price spread. When you look at their volume shipments, they are going to generate 60% more gross profit with minimal Operational and Interest increases. That is $11M more in gross profits or what ~$1 a share more in EPS. Good times coming.
  13. Sold my JKS yesterday, bought in today at 2 cents off the low and sold it for a 2.75% gain a few hours later.
  14. Interesting research report for 2020. The key takeaways 1: The ability of the supply chain to take out 10%+ in the cost of modules 2: Demand outside of China 100-110GW 3: Demand in China should exceed 40GW 4: 175GW of Mono wafer capacity by end of 2020 http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191202/1025031.shtml
  15. I took a sizeable position for me in JKS a few days back(>10% of holdings). If CSIQ pulls back, I will pick up a good chunk again.
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