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SCSolar

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SCSolar last won the day on January 5

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About SCSolar

  1. REITs

    I owned MPW before the market crash in 2008. I bought it for the dividend and potential growth. The stock has proven to not be a growth stock as many REITS have been, rather it is fairly stable dividend income. If you look at the chart since 2005 it is relatively unchanged over that span outside of the drop with the overall markets in 2009. What the charts suggest is that it is a dividend investing stock with little share appreciation but risk to track the greater markets in pull backs. VTR and SBRA are clearly more volatile stocks with larger swings up and down. CHN appears to have never fully recovered from the crash and was in a steady decline. That decline looks to have been broken as of 1.5 years ago and the charts have separated from the others as it has maintained an uptrend the past 1.5 years. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MPW/chart?p=MPW#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%3D%3D
  2. REITs

    Here is a nice article on REITs vs interest rate volatiltiy. Page 2 has a nice chart correlating the two. This might explain some of the recent slide in Realestate REITs as interest rates are being increased by the FED. https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2017/07/10/reits-have-complicated-relationship-status-with-interest-rates/2/#3258ea9750e0
  3. Daqo (DQ)

    Does not Daqo make lower quality poly from their FBR process vs the electronics grade poly that is made using Siemens reactors? Mono Si is more pure than the Multi Si. The Si used in mono and electronics would command the premium price where the Si for Multi would be on the lower end range $16.
  4. Trading Strategy

    I thought being in Canada, you might get into the Canadian etfs/funds. Canada has a favorable government policy for Marijuana where the U.S. is not pro pot.
  5. Daqo (DQ)

    DQ might be near a cyclical high with current capacity. It is yet to be determined though if that Cyclical High on quarterly basis is $3 or $4 EPS. It is also undetermined how long the cyclical high will last. It could go on through Q1 and drop in Q2 or it could carry through into 2019 if demand for solar spikes as forecast. It is clear however that the upside share appreciation potential is starting to be tempered until new capacity comes online.
  6. Trading Strategy

    I just took a small position in a Marijuana ETF MJX as a play on a potentially evolving market segment. For anyone interested in the segment of investing here are some etf/funds ari.cn, mcoa, mjna, mgw.v, hvst.v, blevf, hmlsf, mjx, hmmj.to, lare
  7. Trading Strategy

    It is up 6.25% since my purchase on 1/8/18. I will be holding this for most likely a year or more as I like the market segment for future growth. This type of fund being robotics and AI technologies traverse most every part of business in some form or another.
  8. Daqo (DQ)

    I had that fear back in early 2016 when the market crashed. I took out half my investments and went to cash. I lost out on half the years gains as I kept fearing a pullback again. That made 2016 not a great year as there was 10-15% lost in the early part, then only 5-10% on the mid year. When I finally started putting back 75-80%, I caught the bull market at the end and recouped my losses. That fear also crept in on the initial 800 points down when Trump won but I stayed steady and had a nice return by the years end. Once can also use of protective puts that one can use to offset the fear of a pullback and lock in the gains. I was worried in the second half of last year that the market may correct and pullback. To support my investment gains, I put in some short the market positions at 10% of my holdings. While the market did not pull back, I had the comfort of knowing on those days that the market fell I was going to make some money or at least not lose as much. In the end, when it became clear the tax cuts were going to happen, I decided to get out of the protective position. I did make good money while I had the market shorts in place, just not as much as if I did not have the shorts in place. In all, the comfort of the shorts cost me 1-2% in lost gains for the year. That is O.K by me because those losses are able to offset the tax liabilities on gains.
  9. Daqo (DQ)

    Nice point to make, the only issue with the article is that the Charleston Tennessee plant had been operational and was not shut down in 2014. In fact in 2017 it blew up killing 8 and emitting a hydrochloric acid cloud and has been closed for investigations which may go on for 3 more months. http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/local/story/2017/dec/07/wacker-investigations-still-ongoing-agencies/458688/
  10. Daqo (DQ)

    I believe Klothilde laid out market segment growth information very clearly. Last year the market grew pretty much as expected outside of China. So market forecast while underestimating the global market has been relatively accurate when you discount China which had clearly grew far more than the governments objectives. That means that the market forecasting for 50% of the market is quite accurate. It is only the wild card of China that has skewed the data forecast models. She pointed out that your earlier comment of a 50% growth per anum would require 150GW of demand for 2018. She pointed out that the market data outside of China (which was accurate last year and the year before) is estimated as flat. She then pointed out that to meet your 50% per anum growth, that China would need to double to a 100GW market for 2018. That is not going to happen in 2018. Good luck investing. DQ is benefiting near term from an imbalance in supply for many reasons. Some of those reasons will adjust. My experience of 10 years of solar investing is that the downside speculations while scoffed at by most, has always been more severe than event he worst forecast scenarios.
  11. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    From the past guidance of margins median of 11.5% and past revenue and the present guidance, it would appear there is $30-$50M in gross profits lost by the project sales miss. That would be around 4-6% margins on the missed project sales on $700-$750M projects.
  12. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    revised guidance is out revenues down due to slippage of project sales margin guidance up https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-solar-updates-4q-fy17-120000309.html
  13. Daqo (DQ)

    Daqo is a good stock with good fundamentals currently for several reasons being primarily policy and maintenance schedules. They were not fundamentally strong until government policies were put in place to protect the industry. They are now sitting in Q3 with 40% margins and pulling down $2.42 a quarter or $24M in net income. This was based on a sudden 20% price jump from factories being taken offline for maintenance seasons. Half their net income was from this sudden one quarters price increase. This sudden increase can suddenly drop just as easily. It did fall over $3 between Q1 and Q2 2017. I would expect when the volume production comes back online and new capacity is added, that the ASP will drop and drop quickly. Perc and diamond wires should reduce consumption by 20% per watt over all. Add to that new capacity and you now have a segment that is oversupplied by 20%. I could see the ASP dropping to 30% margins or $2 below where it was in Q2 2017. That price point would put pressure that could wipe out 87.5% of the Q3 net income. Basically dropping earnings to around $3M per quarter or $0.30. I believe this is the volatility that Explo speaks of. The market is forward looking and at times over exuberant. Right now DQ is reaping the benefit of policy changes and capacity taken offline and as a result, overly hyped to the upside from the looks of it. This is not the first time. Back in 2008 Poly was $400-$500 on the spot market and MEMC(aka SUNE) was reaping massive profits. It is unhealthy to have 1 market segment garnering 100% margins and another segment garnering 10%. Eventually the pendulum from the imbalance in the supply chain should swing back. When it does, profits could erode faster than one suspects.
  14. Solar News

    https://www.thedollarbusiness.com/news/india-imports-around-70-solar-equipment-from-china/47877
  15. Trading Solars

    Pure speculation but timing wise, it is about when year end audits and inventory should be done.
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