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Solar Investor
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SCSolar last won the day on August 15

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  1. I think that 30% GM is much to low. I believe their margins are higher pushing the costs to produce 10-20% lower than you are modeling. With future cost to construct decreasing, it is possible to offset that and maintain good double digit margins.
  2. I was quoted some Suntech Solar roof tiles back around 2010. The company that bid them came back 2 weeks later and said they were on back order and did not know when they would be available. I changed to a different company and got Sunpower Modules instead. Then I found out that the Suntech Panels were having manufacturing design and quality issues that was causing roof fires. You always have to be careful with new Tech.
  3. First Solar road built 3 years ago in France is crubling and had a section reomved https://www.yahoo.com/news/photos-show-worlds-first-solar-221432968.html Photos show the world's first solar road that's turned out to be a colossal failure because it's falling apart and doesn't generate enough energy
  4. I've been jumping in and out of SQQQ TQQQ QLD UDOW DXD,. I sold out my short at -750 yesterday and took a long position that I sold this AM. It has felt like gambling and risky and the volatility is moving on certain news cycles. I am heading into vacation for a week so I will be out of the market for a bit and sitting in cash.
  5. I did a short term trade yesterday on JKS buying in late yesterday for a couple thousand shares. Sold it today for a 3.5% pop. I tried to get some CSIQ before earnings as well at $20.21 but my bid never got hit. Darn. Trading the volatility has been good so far this past couple of weeks.
  6. Right now CSIQ the core MSS is running over 22% gross margins. This does not include Systems sales from Japan. As far as Japan projects, they have 90MW already in operation for sales. They also have an additional 120MW to be completed in 2019 and 2020 along with 187MW in 2021 and beyond. These numbers are around 40-50MW above the inital Japan projects MW schedule from a year ago. That indicates most of the projects of 150MW a year are still the higher FIT. That is a nice buffer for the next 2 to 3 years that will likely add and extra $150M in gross a year at a minimum.
  7. Great numbers, forward guidance is excellent. They have raised revenue guidance and MW shipments significantly. 25% margins guided for Q3 puts Q3 on a greater gross profit path than Q2 even with lower revenues than Q2. Their margins on their core MSS business is mid 22%. That is excellent margins for modules and should be sustainable with the core wafer ASP dropping.
  8. It appears there is no ASP price bump. Reading the tea leaves it looks like oversupply still abounds as the ASP has dropped 20% in the past to 2 months for wafers. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/special/?id=99942 Take Tongwei Solar, the world's largest battery supplier, for example. Last week, its official website released the price of the battery in August, and the PERC battery dropped by more than 10%. Among them, the 156.75 size single crystal PERC battery dropped to 1 yuan / W, down 13.8% from the previous month; the 158.75 size single crystal PERC battery fell to 1.03 yuan / W, down 13.4% from the previous month; the ingot single crystal PERC battery fell to 0.95 Yuan/W, down 12.8% from the previous month.
  9. since those contracts are over the course of 3 years, you can cut that profit down ti size with Opex running at a cool $1Billion plus.
  10. exited after getting home from the gm and finding the markets have given back a large portion of the open. Nice little 18 hour gain.
  11. I have not. It is a small % so I will feel the markets out. I am expecting a bounce today.
  12. In entered qqq, spy and udow when the dow was down around 900. Appx 10% of my portfolio. This is short term depending on market reads.
  13. I took my short the market off the table to pocket the gains. I am leery of a bounce. My shorts were DOG(1X the DOW) and SQQQ(3x the Nasdaq). I was 2x into SQQQ over DOG at about 25% of my funds. SQQQ is a 3x the inverse of the market and thus a volatile risk. I was about 55% cash and 10% in INTC and MSFT. If I go long, it will be in a 1x market ETF so any further drop has less impacts than the higher risks. I would play an entry point of about 20-25% to be long the market indices at around the 200 day average. It is very possible that the lows of 2018 get tested. That is another 2700 points. We are down 1600 so far from the highs. You would have to see the 50 day cross the 200 day in order to see that level of collapse imho.
  14. Markets are down big time. in the U.S. the overall discussions is fear of a trade war. This is triggered by Trumps tariff threats and now that China is devaluing its currency. When you couple this with record highs in the markets and the over exuberance in the face of a slowing economy, things hit a tipping point and the over volatile stocks like solars are being slammed more as they always do. The markets had been pulling back to the 50 day moving averages. Today the currency devalue in China spooked the trade wars and slammed the markets through the 50 day moving average and are heading to test the 200 day moving average. I have been short the markets for several weeks. I started taking positions when the dow was at 26,500 and doubled my position when it broke 27,000. I have sold out my shorts today and will look for an entry point soon. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^DJI/chart?p=^DJI#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%3D%3D As an owner in FSLR that you are, you should be worried because the company is going to have even more difficuly selling overseas. It is becoming a 1 trick pony relying on the semi protected U.S. markets.
  15. This RMB currency is indirectly related to Solar. The China has allowed the RMB to continue to fall. It is now over 7RMB to the dollar.. To me, the depreciation of the RMB could lead to another 5-10% drop in ASP before any cost cuttings and efficiency improvements. This decline is also going to create sizable FOREX losses as books and contracts get adjusted. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/emerging-markets-chinas-yuan-drops-093948895.html
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