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SCSolar

Solar Investor
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SCSolar last won the day on May 9

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  1. Yeah you were overy bullish at $0.56. Q2 will be worse.
  2. Hobo was opportunistic. He weaves a nice compelling story. He totally blew his credibility on his pumping of LDK. He used to bash CSIQ because they were not vertically integrated and vertical integration was the way forward according to him. That is why he shifted to LDK and their Poly to module story line. He trashed CSIQ because they were just buying cells and slapping them into modules. Anyone could do that he claimed and the real module makers were doing the full production line. Then the markets shifted to mass producers to lower costs and the CSIQ non vertical integration became the way to go. They carried less inventory and had less exposure during the down cycles. CSIQ did not take the massive write downs that others did in part because they did not have the inventory buildups and they did not spend heavily on Capital expenditures like others including Trina. Their worst write down was what $20 or $40M payment to LDK unlike Trina and others that wrote down hundreds of millions to Billions in contracts and PPnE.
  3. I would believe that Mustang and Brazil was factored into guidance. Their guidance is likely around 7500MW for revenues. That would place project sales and EPC work at around $1.5-1.6B. Brazil is a pre- construction sale. That makes very little money up front. It is the services and sales where they make the money. The Construction is supposed to start later this year. That would likely push the bulk of revenues from module sale out to 2020/2021 and a majority of the EPC services out then as well.
  4. Let just say that secondary was telegraphed from the other side of the sun. The line of questioning from the con call regarding funds needed for expansion, then the back to back PR's to try and push positive news was a dead giveaway. What is interesting is that the stock is not down 10% yet when they are diluting some 15%. Are they looking at getting this placement done before the ER? If so that is real shady to me and would suggest that the full year earnings will not be great.
  5. The question I have is If you have gains in some purchases and loses in others, if there is a good bounce, why would you not sell the LT losses to offset gains in other stocks? From a tax purpose you zero out your gains and save the 15-20% taxes you would otherwise pay. That in essence reduces you loss exposure by 15-20% in the stock you have losses in. You put more cash in your pockets and you look to re-enter with that cash at lower prices. These solars are so cyclical that you are guaranteed to get a new buy at 25% or more lower than today within 3-6 months. From a cash perspective if you freed up say $20,000 and took a $10,000 loss. You could save yourself $2,000 in short term taxes on gains. If you wait for a 25% drop or more, then you buy back in to solars at $20,000 and you can maximize your gains. Instead of holding say 1,000 share at $20 or $20,000. You re-enter at $15 and hold 1333 shares. If the stock moves back to $20, you have made $6667 dollars vs just holding your other shares. In essence you saved $2,000 in taxes from the loss offsetting gains and you add $6667 in profits from the re-entering. That is $8677 and you have almost recovered your $10,000 in losses by exiting and re-entering. Doing this you are only down $1,223 and not the $10,000 underwater plus the taxes needed to pain your other gains. Just curious? There are reasons to take losses on what looks to be stuff that is underwater from a long time ago.
  6. Interesting article in China on subsidy arrears. It sites that due to the lack of subsidy payments comapanies are barely getting enough to cover the debt payments on the power plants. A company like GCL only has 25% of it's projects in the catalog. They are receiving 25% of their subsidy payments. This is creating cash flow issues and forcing projects to be sold. There is another issue with the project sales is due to the lack of subsidies the price companies want to pay are lower than the sellers wanting to sell. This makes selling plants to cover the debt and investments difficult. Because of this you have major companies pulling back on the quantity of projects they are developing. This subsidy problems is years in the makings and why CN policy was changed as the cash from taxes was not able to pay for the subsidies. It is causing the pain in the CN markets that has impacted the global pricing. And now you have Jinko Power looking at going public. Jinko Solar is the guarantor of the debts and have risk. Canadian Solar has CN projects they have been looking at selling, do they get less than expected due to the catalog and subsidy issues? Such a policy mess for what was implemented to save the industry 6 years ago. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190510/979518.shtml
  7. Just curious how your portfolio is handling this down trend from the peak? Is it losing less than the uptrend? I am still sitting on the side with one account at 100% cash one account 90% stocks 10% cash One account at 80% cash One account at 61% cash with protective short the market at 80% of invested Retirement account at 90% invested in index funds
  8. China 5MW distributed winning bid to build at 4.33 RMB or $0.65/watt. The prices are getting near grid and should drive big demand in 2020 in China. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190509/979366.shtml On May 6, Feixian Shandong City Kaiyuan Large Assembly Building Co., Ltd. 5.0mwp distributed photovoltaic power generation epc design, construction project publicity unit. Shandong Linuo Power Design Consulting Co., Ltd. won the bid for the price of 21,644,813.25 yuan.
  9. I will go $0.34 before 1 time adjustments and forex. That runs a $1.75 spread between cost and ASP.
  10. Did first solar Give Q2 guidance numbers for revenues and margins?
  11. Wow FSLR suggested EPS guidance is at risk as they now caveat a downside risk of 22% on the low end guidance. OMG!!! How the Heck can FSLR survive with module margins of -14%. Even when backing out their $35M ramp costs they are only making what looks to be 5% margins. You talk about the Chinese selling at costs, FLSR is selling below costs. That bread and butter project business is a mess. They now are suggesting that they do not have the S6 capacity for their contracted builds due to ramp issues and are substituting in S4 in place and taking penalties for doing so. They are having issues with contractors and the costs they are having to pay the contractors being higher than expected. They even suggested that some construction contractors are in financial peril and there. There is risk in the California markets that may cost 20% of their earnings. Forget the fact that they mentioned that profits from Japan are lower than expected and they are pulling some of those in to prop up 2019 earnings. Now they just burned through $500M in cash and added 30% in debt. What is going on with FSLR and their executions? 💕💕💕💕💕
  12. Can you explain for me what the 3 handle ASP is? Thanks/
  13. Nope, if anything accelerated rates of decline as their margins appear to be lowered for the year based on net income remaining flat but revenue guidance being raised. This would suggest that gross margins might be crumbling as they would appear to be 7% lower than last guided 3 months ago. This is a disturbing trend that continues since last years HUGE miss by FLSR from year end results vs beginning of year margin guidance. 😊
  14. I believe that article is incorrect in the period of the bookings. They PR'd http://ir.jinkosolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/jinkosolar-secures-over-107-gw-orders-2019 "Jinko has announced they have contracted FOR 2019 10.7GW.." They did not state 10.7GW IN 2019 which would imply a 4 month bookings. This PR appears to be a cumulative statement for 2019 and not a new bookings in 2019. If that interpretation is correct, they have 3.3-4.3GW left to book for 2019. This would be bookings needed in the next 5 or 6 months. That is very attainable for them. This PR follows a notice of expanding 5GW of of Mono capacity pushing capacity to 11.5GW of Mono wafers. That is 500MW higher than previously guided in Q1. Phillip Shen asked some expansion questions the company indicated it needs some $400-$450M in Capex for the expansions this year. He also questioned them on the equity raising needed and where it comes from and it was clear they are looking at some equity raising. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4250602-jinkosolar-holding-co-ltd-jks-ceo-kangping-chen-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single Based on the 2 back to back PR's which are basically an affirmation of their intended capacity expansions and progress for sales in 2019, the company is likely looking for positive press and stock so they can raise equity to pay for the capacity expansion.
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