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SCSolar last won the day on November 11

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About SCSolar

  1. JA Solar (JASO)

    I do not own Jaso, I own CSIQ. CSIQ has presented a solid argument for their capacity expansion for lowering costs. CSIQ is expecting good savings of up to $0.02/watt from the new sawing technology. They are adding wafering capacity due to that as well as cell and module. This is part of their cost reduction efforts to maintain leading edge. Jaso has for the most part bought wafers throughout history to make their cells. Their upgrades are minor as PERC is an additive technology to legacy. Do you know when JKS is going to announce their ER date?
  2. JA Solar (JASO)

    I think they gave pretty good color on the industry and their prosposal to be open to add capacity. They would be adding 500MW of module capacity as their fire damaged facility will be back on line. They have the cash to add a GW vertical or 2GW cell and module. They have low debt compared to some peers and should easily get a line of credit for more capacity if needed. The question is do you add 30% capacity when the market segment is forcast to be flat?. Jaso indicated flat demand was their expectations in 2018. They broke down the government volumes from the traditional ground mount, poverty alleviation and top runner placing demand at 20-25GW. They suggested DG could pick up another 15GW and suggested volumes for 2018 at 40GW+. That is flat to slightly down for China. China basically drove the demand growth in 2017 far above forcast. Jaso indicated ingot and cell capacity is expanding 20-30GW or at a 20-30% volume increase. If Jaso is correct and there is flat to minimal growth, then once again there is over capacity. If they are not correct, they can always add the capacity as they see the demand needs. The time frame of adding a GW can be done in 3 to 4 months.
  3. JA Solar (JASO)

    CSIQ can not drop projects into CSIF for 9 months. That is Q3 for drop downs from their IPO date. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4123186-canadian-solars-csiq-ceo-shawn-qu-q3-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single Shawn Qu The regulation of the J-REIT is that after 9 months we can drop in new assets, which means from Q2, Q3 next year, you should see us dropping certain additional assets into this fund if the market conditions justify. I would expect they sell the large project they mentioned in the Q2 con call in Q1 or Q2. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4098716-canadian-solars-csiq-ceo-shawn-qu-q2-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single Shawn Qu For the big project, we have some big projects, and the big project, we can go through a private sale. The evaluation is as good as J-REIT. So for the J-REIT, our current target initial portfolio is 65 megawatts.
  4. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I just showed you a path to your Opex you presented plus $2 a share in earnings. I would expect saving on Opex per watt to continue the downward trajectory by increased volumes, efficenceis and regional sales. I expect General Admin to remain stable to a slight increase from the $53M per quarter to $55M in 2020. That is $220M I expect sales/W to drop from the current $0.0229/W by 10% a year and reach $0.0167/W in 2020. This will add $200M on shipments of 12GW. This rate of decline in sales per watt is actually slower than the trend rate of the past 3 years. If the trend of the last 3 years is met, the sales per watt would be $0.01375 on a near double of volume. In Q3 2014 the sales per watt watt $0.046/W. I expect RnD to maintain at $7.5M a quarter for $30M a year I would expect that Interest runs at $20-$25M a year once they deleverage their current debt from projects and roll into lower cost projects and debt per MW. This leads me to believe that Opex and interest in 2020 would run $530M to $550M . This difference in my added Operational and Interest expenses is 10% higher than the $500M you suggested. This could be offset by added power revenues from build and hold projects that are currently generating $30M a year in revenue.
  5. JA Solar (JASO)

    Jaso re-affirms CSIQ comments on higher priced Poly impacting for many more quarters.
  6. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I would look at growth overall. They must be seeing something to be at 10GW end of 2018 and JKS is . When they are at 8.1MW of module at the end of 2017. These numbers suggest 9GW in 2018 and with a 15% growth rate 2020 would have 11.9GW shipped. 1400MW for Projects and 10500 for revenue. Module gross = $425-$525M mean $475 For projects using your cost point of $0.72 and an $0.85 ASP they gross $0.13/watt. 1400*.013=$182M gross. Total gross $657M. $675-$500=$175 midrange
  7. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    That is fodder. The Japanese projects in the presentations is way over the Q3 presentation for quantities. And to use a CSIF ASP on those projects when many of those projects are at a lower FIT is wrong. You also do not know if when they were presenting these numbers if this was going to be sales that were to be done as many appear to be which is a sale of the project at an early construction phase and pricing in exchange for EPC work and module sales into the projects.
  8. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    What is the time period for new business and your suggestion of the imbalance of gross vs operational expenses and interest? Your numbers for modules suggests a near term price for the next 2 or 3 quarters and your projects ASP seems to imply 2 or 3 years outs with costs to build of $0.80. For projects, they have a Chinese pipeline with 100Mw current, 79MW COD for 2018, 87MW in 2019 and 141.2MW in 2020. These are all the legacy projects with 25-30% gross margins.
  9. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    It does not reconcile and they will not come close to their initial target of $0.31 stated at the beginning of the year. For costs of modules for Q4 I am looking for $0.35 to $0.355. this would be an increase over Q2 of 4%. If the ASP remains flat in the $0.395 range, then they make 10-11% gross margins.
  10. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Sedg net $0.61 in EPS . That is $28M net income on $166M revenue for 16.8% net margins. They guided revenue up 8% Q over Q and margins inline with current Q. When profits are not wiped out by 2-4% margins fluctuations, stocks will be treated more fairly.
  11. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I agreed with the lots of buts and wishy washy or what I may consider dodgey like when he was asked about the amount of debt that will be cleared after the project sales.
  12. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I am waiting for the transcript for more details. With respect to poly, I believe he indicated that China Poly is not going to decline until later 2018 when more capacity comes on line. I thought I heard in his comments that China may be real strong again. There has to be a driver somewhere for them to be adding 25% capacity expansion in 2018.
  13. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I am not overly concerned about which projects in Q4, rather how much revenue will be generated and what are the suggested margins. They had suggested 3 or 4 projects or about half the US 703MW Recurrent portfolio which would be 350MW. The PR indicates 117MW Australia will be closed in Q4 The PR indicates the 92MW N.C. project will be in Q4. This suggests 559MW of projects close sale in Q4 with the majority in the U.S.
  14. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Q4 Mid range margin high end revenue 1.81B*.115=$208.1 Jpn $270M @30% = $81M High end Module 1734 @9.5% = $60.5M Project Power Gross =$15M nonJREIT gross = $208.1-81-60.5-$15 = $51.6M $1810M revenue $270M JREIT $640.1M Module $45M Power Revenue nonJREIT Project Revenue $1810-$270-$640.1-$45=$854.9M estimated nonJREIT margins $51.6/854.9 = 6.035% When you run with 12.5% GM for the quarter, the nonJREIT project margins $69.7M/$854.9 = 8.15%. These are the projected margins that I get when looking at the numbers presented in the conference call for Q4. What do you see as the revenue breakdowns and margins by major operational functions?