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SCSolar

Solar Investor
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SCSolar last won the day on April 29

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  1. Wow love this comment from the DQ transcript on Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/article/4349119-daqo-new-energy-corp-dq-ceo-longgen-zhang-on-q1-2020-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single "If, let's say, two years ago, maybe consumed 4.5 grams in our silicon per watt. So, that's why the module cost is not number one cost right now. The number one cost is gases. Okay? So, basically, we believe on a module right now per watt cost for silicon is around right now like 3 grams to 3.2 grams"
  2. India Q1 installs fall 43% to just over 1GW. https://mercomindia.com/product/q1-2020-india-solar-market-update/ Solar installations in India declined by 43% in Q1 2020 reaching 1,080 MW, compared to 1,897 MW in Q4 2019. Installations were down by 39% year-over-year (YoY) compared to 1,761 MW in Q1 2019. Solar capacity additions in India in Q1 2020 were the lowest in a quarter since Q4 2016. In Q1 2020, large-scale solar projects totaled 886 MW, and rooftop solar installations added up to 194 MW.
  3. Back rent being demanded for solar projects on Federal lands. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-admin-slaps-solar-wind-050634864.html
  4. That is a good climb back. I caught some of the upswing but I got out far to early. and have sat on the sidelines as soon as I trended negative from being up ever so slightly. The buying of debt by the FED did more for the markets than anything by stabilizing what would be high risk companies. See Coal and gas markets. Depending on how you look and invest in the markets, the Dow is down 17%, the SnP is down 11.36% and the Nasdaq is up almost 0.5%. I basically sum them all together based on actual point value and have an average of down 12.71%. It is clear that the manufacturing is looked at as being far more at risk and impacted by the Virus than say the tech heavy Nasdaq.
  5. The Fed filled the coffers and backstopped many levered companies. The average debt held by American companies is far higher than any time in history. That leaves them in trouble in case of downturns like we just hit. If not for the Fed pumping in Trillions to banks and companies, the market would be at 15,000 or less. The real question is what happens from here. The brick and mortar clothing stores were already in trouble and some will die. The Oil and Gas should have many companies fail, but the Trillions designated for large companies is going to go to those Oil and Gas companies first. They can not handle a prolonged down turn. You have to realize, the U.S. GDP is about 25 Trillion. The Fed and the Government has pumped $8Trillion in equity so far. That is for something that has had 2 months of impact and that impact is only about 15-17% decline. I am still out of the markets as I do not like the uncertainty or market volatility and earnings are not going to bounce back for many any time soon. I am sitting down 1% for the year vs the 10% of the overall markets
  6. They are not selling at spot. Last Q they were significantly higher than the average for the quarter. They have guided significantly higher for this quarter than average. They have been getting near the high end range of the price spread. I would expect that to continue as their quality is there and the demand for good quality mono is still there. Thus the High end range in May is still $9+. This would suggest they will pull down $8-$8.50. With their costs at $6 or less, they will be doing just fine.
  7. Confused? I am? Did they maintain or raise full year guidance? That Q2 revenue guidance is terrible. EPS for 2020 was only $1.03. A price over $50 is crazy even if they run EPS growth 50% YOY. I am not certain they can do that in todays economy.
  8. For some reason, people must be looking for a longer term bounce back in solar. Those homeowners I do not think are looking to add solar right now witht he economic uncertainty
  9. 2GW in AbuDhabi that could go to Jinko. PPA is being indicated as another record low at $0.013/KWhr. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/abu-dhabi-talks-edf-jinko-142345317.html
  10. WoodMac lowered 2020 solar installs to 106.4 GW. Remember this is installs which trail shipments by 10-15% or so. https://www.pv-tech.org/news/wood-mackenzie-lowers-global-solar-demand-forecast-on-covid-19-impact
  11. I think the investment world has come to realize Oil and Solar are 2 different market segments.
  12. I have feeling that the 2 are a little disconnected but are heading south to the same levels of margins(zero to negative). Both are heading south in price for similar reasons. A supply glut and a lack of demand. Solar has not dropped like Oil. Then again Solar has been operating at 20% margins while Oil has been operating at 25-1000% margins depending on regions and type of production. Oil has been operating with the price in the $60-$70 range, while the majority of producers can produce at $5-$15 a barrel. Even Deep Sea drilling in the Gulf of of Mexico was at a $25/barrel back around 2005.. Most of those rigs have been depreciated and written down so those costs are likely half what it was back in the Bush Presidencies and can handle a drop to $15 or so. Oil has had a huge margin. That margin is true for 80% of the production. The non competitive Oil is Fracking and Oil Shale. Those costs were in the upper $30's to upper $$0's per cost. Those are not being destroyed. Consider it like Chinese vs the ROW for pricings back in the early 2010's when non CHinese Solar companies wer dying right and left. Now they are similar because both seem to be tracking ASP to cost because of lack of demand. They are different in that Oil has had a much more dramatic drop due to much higher margins and collusion on price fixing prior to the glut. Both are being driven by stay at home orders and lack of consumer Activity. In the U.S. home installers are going to be crushed. Nobody is going to be installing rooftop solar which is why Sunrun dropped their 2020 guidance. IN fact globally, I would expect that the most of the drop in solar guidance from IHS and others is 80% rooftop and small commercial.
  13. Longi has cut the price of wafers yet again. This makes twice in a month. This time by 11.5-12%. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200420/1064454.shtml
  14. I was in a holding pattern. Took a slight loss previous week. This past week up slightly. I am down 1.37% on the year. 3 of 5 accounts are profitable. One the college scholorship fund I setup in memory of my daughter is up 6% and has been sitting in cash for 3 weeks. I have no market shorts as of Tuesday. I have limited exposure to anything other than Intel and Microsoft. That bull run to 24,000 is quite unexpected. If Goldman and the rest are accurte, the recovery is 12 to 18 months. Earnings futures are not going to be justifying the price IMHO. I guess backstopping all investments and bonds and bad debt by the FED by pumping 10 Trillion into the pockets of banks and brokers is one way to get them back in the markets instead of selling due to margin calls.
  15. This will go back into the courts and likely be stayed yet again.
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