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22 hours ago, explo said:

Although solars had a nice recent run the TAN is still in the process of recovering the loss from the last high printed intraday on May 19, 2008.

Yes, it's hard to believe solars have spent TEN YEARS (and counting) wandering in the financial wilderness, so to speak.  Back then, I certainly thought I'd be financially independent by now.

Well, let's see what the next 10 years bring (chuckle)!

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On 2/21/2019 at 4:29 PM, solarpete said:

Yes, it's hard to believe solars have spent TEN YEARS (and counting) wandering in the financial wilderness, so to speak.  Back then, I certainly thought I'd be financially independent by now.

Well, let's see what the next 10 years bring (chuckle)!

Although out solars I have some Chinese young guns in the portfolio. I think CN stocks have been leading both solars and my portfolio lately. Thus the strangely correlated outperformance between my portfolio and solars past month. 

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On 2/21/2019 at 4:29 PM, solarpete said:

Yes, it's hard to believe solars have spent TEN YEARS (and counting) wandering in the financial wilderness, so to speak.  Back then, I certainly thought I'd be financially independent by now.

Well, let's see what the next 10 years bring (chuckle)!

Hold on my friend, TAN has formed a 9 year accumulation base circa 18 USD. It is unlikely that the sector will revisit the lows again, next hurdle is the 2018 highs at 26 once we clear that level the secular bull trend will be confirmed providing large returns over the coming years. And by large returns I mean 300-500% if we pick the winners.

I am betting on the largest returns coming from China and EU players.

Edited by tupapa

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On ‎2‎/‎4‎/‎2019 at 1:18 PM, SCSolar said:

Interesting chart with segment breakouts. You have 25% in what I view as the growth segments of Tech and Healthcare. These segments have outperformed the markets for the past several decades. They are my 2 primary segments that I look to to aid in outperforming the overall markets.

 

You have consumer discretionary as your largest market segment holding. Consumer discretionary does well when consumer confidence is good and under performs when confidence is week. Does this mean you are bullish on the overall economies going forward? Some of the market sentiment is weakening with higher interest rates and global economic growth slowing.

In an effort to reduce correlations in my stocks basket I've added a lot international stocks which has more than doubled the share of stocks outside US and China. As a consequence of this my exposure to IT and Health Care increased and the exposure to Consumer Discretionary decreased which should be a positive based on you view above. Another consequence was that the large cap bias was reduced from 77% to 68% by moving more into mid caps.

Current profile of the stocks basket:

market_caps.thumb.png.bb0e9c40902ad7dc53a1f30fe6e65cd8.pngcountries.thumb.png.6c9a3f5aa31e70e251356931c26cb713.pngsectors.thumb.png.fd49fc59b917e8f2578286e37d4d893b.pngindustries.thumb.png.8eca5103a9e168ff7175822e48f48bf5.png

Edited by explo

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Nicely timed Beta pullback to form the right-side inverse shoulder. Meanwhile Alpha printed a new high yesterday extending the Alpha vs Beta and Portfolio vs Benchmark divergence.

growth.pngsources.png

Edited by explo

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On ‎3‎/‎3‎/‎2019 at 6:13 PM, explo said:

In an effort to reduce correlations in my stocks basket I've added a lot international stocks which has more than doubled the share of stocks outside US and China. As a consequence of this my exposure to IT and Health Care increased and the exposure to Consumer Discretionary decreased which should be a positive based on you view above. Another consequence was that the large cap bias was reduced from 77% to 68% by moving more into mid caps.

Current profile of the stocks basket: 

market_caps.thumb.png.bb0e9c40902ad7dc53a1f30fe6e65cd8.pngcountries.thumb.png.6c9a3f5aa31e70e251356931c26cb713.pngsectors.thumb.png.fd49fc59b917e8f2578286e37d4d893b.pngindustries.thumb.png.8eca5103a9e168ff7175822e48f48bf5.png

In a further effort to enable growth sector focus I went through and qualified all large and mega cap stocks listed on NYSE and Nasdaq of American companies (after doing that for all international mid, large and mega caps listed there) and found a couple of dozen strong stocks to add to my pool of 250 stocks from which an automated mean-variance optimization typically allocates 100 stocks.

The only part of the US listed stocks universe not fully searched now is the American mid caps. Those have so far been opportunistically searched. This will be the last big effort to hone my stocks pool. I don't consider small or less caps. I use fund managers to find Alpha among small caps, since my allocation strategy requires more reliability (low failure rate) than is offered by smaller companies. I don't consider non-US listed stocks either, since it's too much work and not fully as accessible as US listed and I think that the US exchanges have a decent set of direct or ADR listing of international stocks, i.e. NYSE and Nasdaq has already done most of the work for me to weed out weak international stocks.

The consequence of adding more American large caps to the pool was naturally that USA and large caps got higher allocation again. More interesting is that the strengthened pool allowed me tune the automatic allocation to focus on higher risk/reward without breaching diversification requirements. This had the effect that SCSolar mentioned, i.e. that IT and Health Care and Communications Services sectors dominance increased further and Consumer sectors shrank further (Staples is almost wiped). 

Current profile of the stocks basket:

market_caps.pngcountries.pngsectors.pngindustries.png

Edited by explo

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4 hours ago, explo said:

In a further effort to enable growth sector focus I went through and qualified all large and mega cap stocks listed on NYSE and Nasdaq of American companies (after doing that for all international mid, large and mega caps listed there) and found a couple of dozen strong stocks to add to my pool of 250 stocks from which an automated mean-variance optimization typically allocates 100 stocks.

The only part of the US listed stocks universe not fully searched now is the American mid caps. Those have so far been opportunistically searched. This will be the last big effort to hone my stocks pool. I don't consider small or less caps. I use fund managers to find Alpha among small caps, since my allocation strategy requires more reliability (low failure rate) than is offered by smaller companies. I don't consider non-US listed stocks either, since it's too much work and not fully as accessible as US listed and I think that the US exchanges have a decent set of direct or ADR listing of international stocks, i.e. NYSE and Nasdaq has already done most of the work for me to weed out weak international stocks.

The consequence of adding more American large caps to the pool was naturally that USA and large caps got higher allocation again. More interesting is that the strengthened pool allowed me tune the automatic allocation to focus on higher risk/reward without breaching diversification requirements. This had the effect that SCSolar mentioned, i.e. that IT and Health Care and Communications Services sectors dominance increased further and Consumer sectors shrank further (Staples is almost wiped). 

Current profile of the stocks basket:

market_caps.pngcountries.pngsectors.pngindustries.png

Have you ever looked at American Tower(AMT?) in the communications sector. They started buying wireless towers from the Telcos back in the early 90's. They lease the towers back to all the Telcos and others. They dominate this sector. They are dividend paying and a nice sustained market cap growth.

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5 hours ago, SCSolar said:

Have you ever looked at American Tower(AMT?) in the communications sector. They started buying wireless towers from the Telcos back in the early 90's. They lease the towers back to all the Telcos and others. They dominate this sector. They are dividend paying and a nice sustained market cap growth.

I have looked at them. There is a problem with the chart during the dot-com bust that prevents it from getting allocated. If they were listed after that they would get allocated. It's a know flaw with strategy.

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