SunPower (SPWR)

[Guest Klothilde]

Good lord. You are not worried about your SOL investment? Let's hope SPWR never becomes competitive and that the machinery gets recycled into H-beams.

[explo 706]

I'm not saying that SPWR will be the mass producer of low cost HP modules. They'll show that it can be done. Like Germany showed how BOS can come down when an industry is allowed to establish and mature. I think we all know who will do the cheapest cooking once the recipe is known.

[Guest chrisceeaustin]

SPWR keeps up with the pattern though: highest efficiencies and highest gross margin next to say FSLR(?) Who is to say they won't be cost leader, per watt? They claim that the X-series produces 75% more energy than conventional solar panels. What's conventional? A typical YGE panel? Whatever the case, 75% is a great deal, and I do not think their panels cost 75% more than the conventional panel. And it's much less likely to go bad.

[Guest chrisceeaustin]

Since the CC when Werner said that "a lot of the" first projects that Sunpower builds in in Inner Mongolia will be built in Hohhot, there has been another news piece cited in the yahoo mb. This one remarks on a SPWR 4 GW set of projects that are apparently part of the 7.5 GW larger project. Or so I assume. All part of the joint venture deal SPWR has in Inner Mongolia. I can't find this article. But there were plenty of articles that came out mentioning the 7.5 GW goal for Inner Mong. using SPWR C7 concentrated PV panels. Does anyone have a link to the newest article mentioning the 4 GW in projects? By the way, Odyd did confirm that the rather unpublicized agreement is for 7.5 GW and not MW. He said nothing further. Odyd, do you have any further information? And also, I did see a press release regarding the 7.5 GW in projects on one of the Asian JV partner's websites.

[dydo 1,558]

they are all saying 7.5GW and I did confirm this to be the case. However my source was quick to point out that it was MOU, which is always big in scope but never a match in reality.

[Guest chrisceeaustin]

Yes, I understand. And this is why I was more encouraged when I saw that someone had posted a new article about 4 GW project within the project and that Werner of SPWR had been talking about the "first" of "lots" of projects in Inner Mongolia. I think this series of projects is under the radar but not for too long, along with the whole C7 phenomenon.

[Guest ILOVEPV]

from a TA point of view SPWR raid down is completely justified. In particular there is a gap 6.25 to be filled. I have a big buy order in this area though not sure the stock will be taken so low. Actually all solars are starting to line up for the Q1 reports (JKS is the only late stock, that is why some uncertainty makes JKS an outsider now) ). TSL stucks in 3.50-3.60 area with no move - a slow professionally designed short covering is in effect. YGE is still on a way down and the next leg down to 1.50 area has a big probability (JMHO). As for SOL I am more or less confident that a bottom is around or already reached though I can not exclude a fast short-live raid down to pick stop losses set by prudent investors/traders. If it is a case I prepared to buy really big trading position. As for my yesterday SOL pick I sold it for 1.36 today and set another buy order for the same 1.26 (why not to trade if you have a chance to make some pocket change). Good luck to all.

[Guest solarcat]

Does anyone know what process and technology (patents?) SPWR uses to achieve that high efficiency and why someone else can't do that same? Is there something proprietary?

[Guest rational_judgement]

SPWR keeps up with the pattern though: highest efficiencies and highest gross margin next to say FSLR(?) Who is to say they won't be cost leader, per watt? They claim that the X-series produces 75% more energy than conventional solar panels. What's conventional? A typical YGE panel?

Whatever the case, 75% is a great deal, and I do not think their panels cost 75% more than the conventional panel. And it's much less likely to go bad.

You are missing an important point. The article says

"...results in approximately 75 percent more energy production over the first 25 years, when compared to a conventional solar system covering the same sized roof..."

The comparison is between physical sizes.

The following comparison is more relevant from cost/watt point of view.

"...The X-Series delivers approximately eight to 10 percent more energy per rated watt when compared with conventional solar panels..."

They are 8 to 10% more efficient. Do their panels cost 10% or more than other makers (for the same wattage rating)?

[Guest solarcat]

Klothilde, are you invested in SPWR?

[Guest Klothilde]

Yes, why?

[Guest chrisceeaustin]

You are right that SPWR panels are more expensive per watt. But for reasons of reliability and efficiency, and just overall quality they still sell and lease and are market leaders in USA. Think of it like this. What happens when you want to sell your house in ten years, and you've got solar panels that kinda sorta work. That may actually be a liability -- the new owners may want to take them down. If you have SPWR panels with iron clad warranties, you sell your house with added 8K or more. My estimate.

[Guest solarcat]

Cause I bought some today at $9.05 for a quick trade.

[Guest Klothilde]

UUUPPs sorry solarcat, I'm invested in FSLR. Don't know where my mind was.

[Guest solarcat]

chrisceeaustin, AFAIK everyone has the same warrantee. TSL, YGE, SOL, CSIQ, SPWR, FSLR, etc.. and it may be the same insurer.

[dydo 1,558]

chrisceeaustin Please do not post full articles here. Only links and 100 words of text can be quoted max. I am deleting your post

[Guest chrisceeaustin]

sorry for posting most of that interview with Sunpower's Wegner. I understand I can post up to 100 words of copyrighted mterial. So here is something Wegner said on the Sunpower warranty. This is what I was talking about as "iron clad" and standing out from others. The result is SunPower’s offer of “a 25-year performance warranty and a 25-year product warranty,” Wenger said. “For 25 years, if anything goes wrong with that panel that is a defect of our product of any kind, we will replace it at our cost. The industry standard for that piece is five to ten years.” The warranty also guarantees 9 percent plus more energy over the life of the product than the industry standard, Wenger said, based on a calculated 0.4 percent per year degradation rate

[Guest chrisceeaustin]

Approval of huge Henrietta plant by PG & E. Completion and apparent successful operation of first major C7 project. These were as expected, according to previous announcements of the company. Not surprising but solid signs that everything is on track. Co still claims C7 provides "one of the lowest" LCOEs on earth. C7 JV mfg plant to ramp in Inner Mongolia later this year. "Multi-gigawatt" projects envisioned according to cc. As for Henrietta, it's massive and one of four projects that will provide quarter of a billion in gross profit each year for 2013 and three years following. That's over 2 dollars in gross profit for each share.

[Guest chrisceeaustin]

SPWR uses copper to make their panels high efficiency. I wonder if the low price of copper lowers their costs? Not rhetorical. Any thoughts?

[Guest Klothilde]

silver is a factor 100 more expensive than copper, so go figure.

[dydo 1,558]

SunPower is Green on the US index again, second time this year, sicne Janaury 1, 2011 https://solarpvinvestor.com/solar-universe/us-index

[Guest cfeng]

SunPower officially starts construction of joint 579MW Antelope Valley PV power plants By Mark Osborne - 26 April 2013, 20:48 http://www.pv-tech.org/news/sunpower_officially_starts_construction_of_joint_579mw_antelope_valley_pv_p While Chinese solars are killing each other trying to sell at the lowest price and doing small scale projects that are having hard time selling, U.S. solars are building projects like this .58 GW Antelope Valley.

[Guest chrisceeaustin]

Growth is strong in Q1 in US as I have read. How much does SPWR, WFR, and FSLR get of growing pie?

[Guest cfeng]

A lot more than the Chinese solars will ever see, in my opinion. Let the Chinese solars kill each other. It will mean even more big business for SPWR, FSLR, WFR.

[Guest cfeng]

And so did my investment account. SPWR is nearly 400% higher in 8 months.

[dydo 1,558]

SPWR is the only "green" positive return on the US index started on Janaury 2011. 6.2% in over two years. But we went through a small depression in that period. The other thing is that US-listed index is now better than Europe and Global index. 3 % worse tha Taiwan. This is a very positive development. Mind you, US Index is getting its most output from pricing of FSLR. Any company with negative % below index is outperforming it.This includes CSIQ and JKS, SPWR, MEMC, FSLR

[Guest ILOVEPV]

The so-called correction is still in effect and will be lasted for 1-3 weeks more. It does not matter what CSIQ said today -the stock is trading near zero gain with a big probability to finish in red too. All others besides JKS are deep in red. JKS lost almost 25% for the previous 2.5 days so some small rebound was anticipated. If we do not count GTAT yesterday announcement, today is going to be the first Q1 earning report -SPWR. Looking at SPWR trading pattern for the last week I've got a feeling that big boys took a decision not to let it go down with no respect what is going to be reported and guided. After earnings season is over we will get a clear picture what to expect. Besides EU tariff uncertainty all other development is strictly positive i.e. probably all of the Chi10 (besides SOL) can expect new 52 high within next 3 months. A major reason why SOL won't be among those winners is SOL is my biggest holding. To let it go along with others I have to unload my SOL position and the more I unload the faster and higher SOL will go. SPWR earnings. JMHO: we should not expect something extraordinary BUT profitability will be likely announced.

[Guest Boss]

Please sell SOL,so it can go higher. LOL

[Paybak66 41]

ILOVEPV...i am surprised to read that you dont think that SPWR or SOL earnings will result in a rally. If either of them shows a profit, i predict a pretty positive reaction.

[Guest outsmart]

The so-called correction is still in effect and will be lasted for 1-3 weeks more. It does not matter what CSIQ said today -the stock is trading near zero gain with a big probability to finish in red too.

Some people may think, "oh, this new Q1 guidance was the reason for the rally of the past days, time to sell the news" But they miss the huge news that is the Q2 guidance. CSIQ will go right to $10, maybe even to $15 in the next 6-8 weeks.