explo

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Everything posted by explo

  1. DQ buy filled. JKS sell filled. Reallocation to equal JKS/JASO (resulting in all 4 holdings being equal weighted now) filled (JASO buy, JKS sell).
  2. I haven't crunched their numbers but if we have $0.395 ASP and their two cost points $0.32 in-house and $0.35 blended then their multi/mono, low/high end blended gross margin of panels only sourcing poly externally and thus having internal ingot, wafer, cell and panel process sourcing would be 19.0% assuming that the panel ASP is the same for fully in-house sourced panels as for those having some external processing sources. This is the blend of maybe low margin off spec standard multi including possible write downs and high margin mono panel sold into certain CN market segments where mono demand is very high now. For the panels with outsourced parts, including the panel processing, we have the same mix of products impacting blended cost and ASP. It is a market share chase, but let's remember that Jinko since it's listing has always been shrewed and the ASP spread between cells and panels have really compressed a lot this year to record lows. The timing to source panel processing by little brother Li certainly was much better than for big brother Li. Grabbing the top spot share a few quarters ahead of more capacity coming online might have been smart. We'll see. Their working capital leverage certainly is extreme but that also makes growth cheaper. So far they've manage to balance with heavy weights to offer the highest ROE in the industry.
  3. Up 18% today on no news. I thought it was too cheap when it traded at $2.00, but I can't explain recent strength since it landed at $3.50. Maybe has something to do with LDK trouble, and provincial politics. Will Jinko as Jiangxi's other big solar benefit from the LDK situation?
  4. It's been clear for years that the planet will gain from renewables inevitable dominance, but will investors to the same extent? To me the pace of progress this decade is amazing. In 2010 we had come a long way as panel prices dipped as low as $1.50 before rebounding to $1.80 as shortage set in. I then had a dream that continued progress would lead to new massive panel price milestones of $0.50 before the end of this decade and $0.30 before end of the next decade. These milestones would massively expand the geographical grid parity footprint. I can't believe how much ahead of this schedule we are and I believe that there is still plenty of room for demand response to this colossal change in solar economics. I think we now are again ahead on the panel side and panels might be entitled to some margin expansion as BOS has to compress a little to keep up with the pace panels has shown the last couple of years.
  5. It's easier for DQ to post high EPS for 2017, but DQ is also higher risk.
  6. I haven't broken it down, but just at first glance my assumption is that the 59.8 MWac (83.7 MWp) sold in Canada are included in the 176.3 MWp total soultion shipments.
  7. DQ buy filled yesterday
  8. Mark, I doubt big brother Li will have much to offer little brother Li now. Those interesting family dinners discussions they talk about should by now have concluded the little brother to be the family genius. SOL set out to be wafer specialist but haven't progressed in a way to enable expansion in over half a decade. Meanwhile JKS seems to have a real competitive edge in both multi ingot casting and mono ingot pulling, when it comes to high throughput etc. and will soon be sitting on 7 GW of wafer capacity. It doesn't seem like they need help with wafers. Yingli thought the same, that wafers were their in-house strength, but it is now clear that Jinko won the ingot efficiency battle. I can see DQ, JASO and CSIQ having much more interesting competencies to complement JKS than SOL. SOL is simply weak in most of what it does. Odyd, I don't see why Li should be able to sell that much above book. What I worry about for SOL shareholders is that Li's asset valuation is below book and that he won't assume as much debt as we think, i.e. that he will assume much less than BV + 81m in debt. Looking at value chain I see wafer and module being compressed lately and cell and poly doing better. JASO chairman both times made offer when cell margins seemed healthy. This is conversely a bad situation for SOL and the offer by Li might seem mercyful. Especially given that their strategy to source non-China capacity to supply US being at risk. For those worrying about JKS making less than 50 cents EPS in Q1 we should remember the message on CC that gross margins will improve in Q2 despite further massive shipment growth and will continue to improve in second half. To me a lukewarm result with bullish outlook is not a reason to worry and give up already on the new leader.
  9. SolarCoin: Incentivising solar PV energy production through blockchain innovation https://www.pv-tech.org/guest-blog/solarcoin-incentivising-solar-pv-energy-production-through-blockchain-innov
  10. World's largest floating solar power plant installed in flooded coal mine https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ja-solar-supplies-worlds-largest-230000747.html Quite the finger to the industry burning dinosaur fossils which is soon to become a dinosaur itself
  11. I still think it is hard to convince shareholders to capitulate to this when they the past three years have posted fat (relative to offer price) and nicely growing EPS. If the company did not offer high and quickly growing earning driven by great operational and marketing progress shareholders would be more inclined to let go of their shares. Somebody should make a competing offer here now that the Hemlock lawsuit liability is gone. BV at $20 can be liquidated at discount for a buyer un theory.
  12. Thanks. With this big expansion of a quite tight mono ingot pulling capacity I hope GCL and others are not expanding the already vast multi ingot casting capacity but instead, which seems to be the case, try to develop cell tech that helps the value of multi wafer to keep up (e.g. cell tech that can handle DWS cut multi wafer) with the increased p-type mono wafer value driven by the mono PERC progress.
  13. It's quite clear that CSIQ is support the utilization of GCL's massive casting capacity. It would be interesting to know if TSL is doing the same. Trina has always been very multi focused. JKS and JASO clearly are betting on mono PERC instead of increase mc-Si stake now. The progress by GCL on for mc-Si sounds very promising. Maybe the biggest loser right now is n-type with p-type progressing for both mono and multi.
  14. Offer must first be made definite and preferably recommended by the board before it can be put to shareholder vote for acceptance. However the offer is really out of touch with preceding trading range in terms of premium in a way that almost looks as a pretext for the board to decline it saving the chairman the embarressment of having to withdraw it due to his [speculation] failure to raise the funds required. It's hard to see that changing the offer to $6.80 from $9.60 would make things suddenly move in the direction of an acceptance vote by shareholders. Trina was different as Gao played it perfectly to time the vote when the price was maybe 50% or more to current market state looking at where peers were trading. JASO offer has no premium what so ever at this time. Maybe the chairman is speculating on a 30% haircut of CSIQ and JKS here which would make the offer much more attractive to shareholders.
  15. JKS sell filled. JASO buy filled yesterday.
  16. Yes I need to crunch their liquidity situation. I haven't done that recently. CN bank have big confidence in them though so I don't think they would be in trouble if the US equity market is not a good option when they need cash.
  17. JKS has outperformed all on ROE driven by capex efficiency. It has raised least equity and have largest capacity and retained earning to paid-in capital ratio. I've historically argued that although being capex per watt efficient they also use long depreciation periods which might have boosted ROE compared to more conservative short depreciation periods companies like FSLR. The effect is seen in better operating cash flow of depreciation conservative but also less capex efficient companies. In the end the result is seen in cash pile like FSLR having accumualted 2.4b and JKS only 10% of that. Of course that assumes raised capital and debt was invested in ROE opportunities and not used to grow cash pile. But, and that's a big but, the build of cash pile is usually starting when capacity expansion slows which it did for FSLR but not for JKS. So I can agree on questioning if JKS has boosted its ROE, but I also think that in their high growth mode it is natural to consume cash rather than to accumulate it
  18. Just to set the record straight on JKS cash flow. One unidentified analyst talked a lot about free cash flow "issues" which may somehow have led to the misconception on this board that JKS had negative operating cash flow in Q1. Normally the free cash flow will be negative for a company investing in near term growth opportunity. JKS said it would be negative this year but positive next year. However operating cash flow is a different story which they said they are very careful with and was actually positive in Q1 despite the ongoing shipment expansion. Operating cash flow, especially on a quarterly basis, is a much more relevant measure of operational health. It is easy to bump free cash flow one quarter by not making any capex that quarter. Even operating cash flow might not be relevant over a shorter period since it is reduced by inventory and AR growth during revenue growth, so short enough period to have a large fluctuating component (e.g. seasonality) in revenue is not good indicator of OCF trend.
  19. I'm on vacation trip now so I don't have my computer and sheets handy, but in one preso a few Q's ago they listed the expected rough margin of those 1.6b expected revenues. I think it was expressed as low teens or low double digits and I used it to adjust my calculated value of the company bumping the price target with around $3.
  20. Nice that he can see solar panels as part of a solution. Maybe a seed is planted in his brain now.
  21. The lawyers seem to be all over it now
  22. Late capitulation
  23. Matt, I'm still holding. I'm not sure why the market should be very influence by a non-binding bid price. The bid for TSL lifted it 30% above peers but only when it became definite.
  24. What a bunch of BS citing very near term outlook as the primary basis of the value of the company. If things are so gloomy why does he still want to buy it?