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Everything posted by explo

  1. Thank you. I'm still down high single digits for the year, so you are still ahead. The market certainly has gone vertical this week. Typically that mean a correction is imminent. I still have a bunch of stock buy orders in place (62 at the moment), but this weeks removal of the discretionary extra gearing decision put in place March 20 effectively means that these buy orders got lower limits (deeper red is required for ample filling now). A flush here to top up some laggards would be healthy.
  2. I'm de-risking again after recovering most of the loss this year. My ambition is not to go for the Feb 20 surge peak, but to get back on track with the (pre surge) level at the start of the year with a de-risked portfolio. The de-risking means that the asset allocation has changed dramatically (again) to an even less volatile one. The strategic leverage is the same. A one-time discretionary increase in leverage put in place March 20 (well timed) has been removed. This was put in place to allow buying rather than selling assets in order to compensate for a (bad timed) big illiquid beta (smallcap stock focused mutual funds) reduction. It has allowed a lot of buy orders to be filled on the way up from the bottom. Now both the asset allocation and leverage should be in a good place for either market direction. Below shows the current state of the portfolio. The almost full recovery of the stocks and the market timing (tactical leverage) component being back on track make this time suitable for the major change. Swift recovery of the funds is impossible due to them having too high and illiquid beta during the swift market drop and now having very little beta. This was, as mentioned, compensated by allowing extra opportunistic focus for the stocks. The portfolio CAGR since inception is above its 15% target, so it seems prudent to have executed the new lower risk strategy here. In short the significant change to asset allocation means less volatile funds and less cyclical stocks. Allocation Return Attribution Contribution
  3. 60 of 122 filled now.
  4. explo

    Solar News

    Congrats to those who made a fortune on this. Almost exactly 3 years ago on May 18, 2017 it printed an intraday low of $0.65. Yesterday closed more than 10000% above that. Sweet gains. Don't forget to realize them properly.
  5. You could view it as an exhausted economy, after a record long expansion, getting an involuntary well needed reboot to start up the machine in a leaner (fluff flushing) and maybe even more efficient (upgraded by accelerated information technology adoption) state. I still lean towards the bear market rally scenario though as the market might again change focus to the with certainty darkening clouds coming (hard to ignore) and not try to see the possible bright sun behind them anymore.
  6. I think there are some things that have not been talked about a lot. So companies enjoy stimulus (cheap capital), but it also seems they have gotten an excuse to "tighten" their cost profiles (cut slack and keep best performers and make them work harder). CEOs likes those excuses as they can later enjoy applauds for great margins. Another point is that after a long expansion with unemployment at record low the risk of economy heating and price inflation starts to come into the risk sentiment. That has been completely put out for years now, so if the economy can normalize again it will do it with slack cut, inflation risk eliminated, ample labour supply and likely cheap money to continue for years. The one big risk is the debt load. Debt load can either be paid down at expense of growth or with the combination of low interest rates and high growth be naturally diluted at low cost, so the real risk of the high debt is that we would see interest rates rise absent growth. These sort of things is why it is difficult to say whether we are in a bear market rally or market recovery. Based on time it seems too early for the latter though.
  7. Ok. Very good result. A lot of active return generated this year. My active return is recovering, but it is still disappointing. Normally it should do well when markets do bad. I'm around 15% down for the year now. An improvement from the 46% down at the low. Below are two charts to ponder about long-term market timing. They both show only the growth part of equities, i.e. return without reinvested dividends. In the first one the dividend is collected as income as a solace during periods of disappointing return and in the second one the "2 x dividend net of interest on 1 x debt" can be collected / needs to be paid. Timing is as expected even more critical with leverage, but most evident is that buying and selling should be temporally diversified to reduce the uncertainty about the long-term return compared to one entry and one exit. Right now we are slightly expensive, but still a far cry from 1999 and of course even more far away from the extremely inflated 1929. This offers less poor outlook for long-term return than those times. We are however not near the same opportunity for long-term return as the entry points of 1932, 1942, 1974, 1982 and 2009 offered. Given enough time (70+ years) there will always be decent long-term return regardless of entry point. These charts show that it is tricky to time the market with a long-term perspective as, even though the opportunity points can be seen in retrospect, it would require extreme patience to wait to pick long-term opportunistic buying and selling points. The latter will always appear eventually. The former can be very far away with the risk of occurring too late to offer lower entry (like end of 1990 with 1987 in fresh mind or 2011 with 2008 in fresh mind). A rebalancing strategy with something of decent return and low correlation to equities offers a scheme to automatically buying stock market when it is down and selling it when it is up. This can both increase return (with use of leverage) and lower risk if successful compared to just being in the stock market.
  8. Two weeks later the bear market rally seems to have lost steam and is at an inflection point to gain new traction or cave to retest the low. What scenarios do you see from here? I'm sort of half bargain filled here so either is ok for me, but I expect that the bear market rally has topped out already and volatility to return second half of May. For me it's ideal to have a moderate drop from here (10-15%) to get many fills but not to dwarf the previous low, since I don't want to get back into risk management mode (reduce margin call risk) or even hit final survival mode (handle margin calls). The risk management is largely done though by shedding illiquid beta. That curbs the rebound opportunity, but limits complete portfolio collapse risk. In fact it completely robbed my funds basket of the chance for a swift recovery. Instead I'm using the room created by the risk management for stock bargain buying, which will position the stock basket in an extra good position for the recovery. In total for the portfolio I think this was the right thing to do, but doing a major risk reduction right at the bottom stings.
  9. 58 of 122 filled now.
  10. explo

    Solar News

    Wow oil hit -39.44 USD yesterday.
  11. explo

    Solar News

    It seems like solar stock prices do not care to much about oil price. Even oil stock prices seem to not care too as much anymore.
  12. explo

    Solar News

    Wow oil down 40% for the day now. $11.
  13. explo

    Solar News

    Are solar stock prices still correlated to oil price? Oil is at a spectacular low of $13 now.
  14. Ok, sounds sound. Holding on to initial tactic seems wise here as the market moves around and we don't know when it will go where with its sharp moves.
  15. It’s been a melt up lately. Are you holding, increasing or reducing defensive position here? I’m raising buy limits and adding more buy orders. I now have 61 buy orders I’d like to see filled.
  16. 26 of 87 filled now.
  17. I can imagine that the mistake stings a bit, but for the year you have a massive outperformance by moving to the vastly superior asset class (cash) at the right time.
  18. 26 of 55 filled now.
  19. I agree it looks like a bad flush. My strategy (allocating long-term strong companies) should hopefully work well for a likely "strong getting stronger" scenario.
  20. Good luck. It looks like a dead cat bounce could be forming and that more than half of its potential has been exhausted by now. Multiple year growth projection revisions are starting to come in from heavy institutions (governments and their major agencies) and the come with dire short-term scenarios. It looks like it will take a couple of years before we are back on track. Back on track meaning to be where we would be at that time had this outbreak not occurred. The recovery to get back on that track will start however start quite quickly, we are talking quarters not years. Then the questions is if/when the market buys this scenario and if it focuses its asset pricing on earnings 2023- or 2020-2022. I'm still waiting for more fills so a double bottom or just slightly deeper final bottom would suit my tactics at this time. A much deeper bottom would force me to heavy leverage management trading again (opportunistically trimming and maybe topping up my around 130 assets). Much of the beta has been eliminated from my funds basket so I should not be pulled down as deep I was during the initial crash and my beta should be in more liquid assets for better ability to do more optimal handling of asset price changes. Right now I'm at just slightly positive return since the start of 2018.
  21. Interesting. Very active allocation.
  22. 16 of 44 filled now.
  23. Great timing of what looks like a bounce building.
  24. Yes. The market goes through its phases (denial in equities when bonds already saw concern for example). The fear phase before was due to not seeing that this is a bell curve and we will see the light at the end of the tunnel quite quickly. First on the infection rate and then on the economy. To know that the infection rate slowing measures do not need to be applied during the whole bell curve build up in order to flatten the curve will be a big relief. As more people have been infected the virus will naturally be slowed by increased difficulty to find new uninfected (non-immune) host chains. One immune person can break a whole chain of infections that would otherwise happen. When enough persons are immune (60%+ it becomes very difficult for the virus to spread among the non-infected). So if the infection rate bell curve is formed over months, rightly timed restrictions of the right kind might only be needed for a couple of weeks for the curve to reach ideal shape, since we don't want a too slow infection rate either. We want a balanced infection rate so that the health care system doesn't collapse and so that we reach herd immunity quickly so that the general population no longer risk passing on the virus to a big share of the risk group (which probably should remain isolated longer than the rest). Then a second wave of fear will likely arise regarding the uncertainty about how much damages was inflicted, but for now the market is relieved that the damage will not go on for an extended period. How deep the bottom test goes and when happens is difficult to say sometimes it double dips and sometimes it is another large leg down.
  25. I included the 4 previous filled for 7 of 41 filled last week. Three more filled this morning. Update: It was actually 5 previously filled. Another one filled in late trading. 12 of 42 now.
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