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explo

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Everything posted by explo

  1. JA Solar (JASO)

    Even worse. I hope he doesn’t get away with it.
  2. JA Solar (JASO)

    PB 0.35. Way below paid-in capital. The chairman knows how to make a shameful offer. I hope he doesn’t get away with it.
  3. Daqo (DQ)

    The great cost leadership fundamentals of the company is the same as this summer when it could be picked up in the teens. To pay double now (which means double PB) after a quick surge for the same fundamentals just because poly market price bounced back up seems a bit late on the puck. In my view it's better to invest in the leaders when PBs are low and just ride them up when PPSs cycles with ASPs. In other words it is better to buy pre appreciation and sell post appreciation. For these companies the simple Buffet rule can be applied, buy when PB is low and sell when it is high. Many of these companies were not long ago offered at sub 0.5 PBs. Not anymore.
  4. ReneSola (SOL)

    Nice story. Thanks for sharing and good luck.
  5. Beyond Solar

    ENB, their parent, which I own, has also been pressured lately. High dividends allows for waiting out better times for price appreciation.
  6. Trading Solars

    When poly shortage hit it is not quickly regulated by market and the poly part of the chain get rich and the rest squeezed. Those who only followed the industry for the past 7 years might think the money is collected down the stream. The 7 years before that it was hard downstream and a big party upstream, even midstream.
  7. Trading Solars

    Because it is not easy. Things get more technically difficult to produce cost efficiently the further up the stream you get. Those who succeeded after many years of hard work are often not available for acquisiton. DQ has a big parent who is not interested in selling for example.
  8. Trading Strategy

    I'm a programmer, but I'm not designing a CTA. MPT optimization is simple enough to run in Excel sheets. The result is a balanced portfolio that doesn't require much trading. Thanks anyway.
  9. Trading Strategy

    I wasn’t familiar with that site. Thanks for the tip. I will take a look.
  10. Trading Strategy

    Example of a stock with good properties for risk reduction contribution to a portfolio can be seen here: https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/NJR#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 Having an algorithm optimally weighting (even based on how they play together with assets from other asset classes) the best of the best risk-adjusted return stocks from an index can create a very powerful portfolio team.
  11. Trading Strategy

    I'll reply here. There are some manual preparation steps for the optimization. To add a stock to the training basket, from which the optimization process semi-automatically picks and weights stocks using excel sheets, some work has to be done. To mitigate this I always have one dummy stock in the basket called "candidate" who's price history I can replace with a new stock I want to evaluate. If the new stock contributes or is close to do that I will add it to the basket. If I do that by replacing the currently lowest contributor it is a bit easier than an insert. To just replace the price data of the dummy candidate stock is also some manual work. Retrieve, align format and copy data, so I first look at the chart to sense whether it might have what it takes or not. Things like different inception dates has to be handled. I think this process can be automated further, but since the main effort is data retrieval and alignment I don't see a need to further automate the steps that follow that. There are basically three components a new stock can offer, high return, low volatility and low correlation. The first two are not too difficult to spot in a chart so I do a lot of early rejection when those two obviously are not adequate. The latter has to be tested against the current portfolio. Correlation is really what makes the portfolio a team effort in risk reduction (lowering combined volatility vs sum of individual volatility) and thus allowing higher leverage of each individuals return capability. Re-balancing back to the optimum balance is important to maintain the optimal properties. I've implemented Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) allocation optimization in sheets and it gives expected results. It selected 12 stocks from 8 different sectors and all the funds were hedge funds with very low (negative even) correlation to stocks and it balances the weights so that the risk-adjusted return is maximized. The risk aversion parameter, which is the only input besides the price data, doesn't change the relative weighting of the risk assets much but instead determines how much leverage can be used. I'm very satisfied with the results of this implementation. It doesn't leave anything open. Even though it is based on a mean-variance optimization it is not very dependent on that the assets it optimizes the weights for are normal populations. The result instead will be a quite normal population, which makes its optimization criterion relevant. There seems to be no need to optimized an advanced utility function that is not based on normal population metrics. I've been a mathematician for many years so I've acquired a good sense of these things. To me it seems both quite simple and robust. The main argument against it, or weight optimization and re-balancing in general, is that returns, variances and correlations of the past might not be relevant and these inputs should be estimates of the future instead. I think it is hard to estimate the two latter ones better than what history tells us (I used as much data that is available up to 30 years for this). For the return I use the R^2 value of the linear regression of the log returns to qualify the stability of it. So the expected return is not the past mean, but the past regression trend discounted by the regression R^2 value. Time will tell the model error or if I get time I can simulate the strategy. It's probably important to continuously re-optimize. By constraining the max weights one stocks "lucky" properties of the past is not over trained. The fact that the result led to stocks from 8 different sectors of different return and volatility profiles tells me it is a well balanced and likely robust optimum since it reflects contribution of sector correlation properties rather than an individual stock's correlation properties during a specific period. If one stock gets too broken it can be identified and replaced when no longer qualifying. This cost of replacement of broken parts (mainly the under performance until identified and replaced) is what is not modeled (the optimization only chose stocks that had never gotten permanently broken). Keeping the parts small is the strategy to handle this. You can find some more information about this MPT optimization result in the "About Me" tab in my profile.
  12. Beyond Solar

    Ok. I think what I meant is that if the stock goes up its likely because it is valued higher by the market participants (maybe because the company is doing well) and not that it splitted. Or rather that is what would be sensible. I don’t have any data to support that the market trades mega caps sensibly though. That is I didn’t contest the expectation of long-term price appreciation just the reason for it.
  13. Beyond Solar

    Yes. I’ve looked at the CGNX chart and ... OMG that’s a potent stock now. But I’ve gone fully systematic now. No dicretionary picking based on FA nor TA anymore. I hope other followed Robert’s recommendation. Basically all his recommendations here have been very interesting stocks. I still solidly hold ENB. ALB has been in and out.
  14. Beyond Solar

    I must have forgotten that. Sure it was me? I might have had the view the a split has no fundamental value and just psychological effects. I don’t think I had a view on its valuation since I haven’t looked at it, but maybe I remember wrong. Wouldn’t it simply trade at $1232 without the split. AMZN blasted through $1000 like nothing recently. I believe much more in your argument they are in a ”good place” for stock appreciation now.
  15. Solar News

    They seem confident. Like FSLR when talking about S6. Feeling ok with waiting for a solid stock to be formed out of whoever wins this race.
  16. Solar News

    Way to deter competitors from build cell fabs the coming year..
  17. Solar News

    Lol, we've heard that one before. SOL had locked wafer sales 1 $/W before the price tanked 80%. Then they realized that it was not good for business if all their customers went bankrupt. That said I'm not doubting that what FSLR is doing is much more balanced. But above comment was just a funny reflection on what never worked last time.
  18. Beyond Solar

    I tested CGNX for portfolio qualification when you first recommended it. It was close to pass but failed since I look at full history. Based on last 10 years it would have passed with flying colors. Since I try to be strictly systematic now I don't make exceptions to the rule even if another rule makes just as much sense. Funny facts. The solid state physics field (based on advanced quantum mechanics and applied in PV) was were I had some early interest in my university studies but I ended up specializing in the robot vision part of the applied mathematics field. What I ended up doing is AI software design, which is applying robot vision techniques though. For some reason I've never invested close to where I ended up working (never in same company or even industry), but closer to where I started. In retrospect maybe I should have picked my investments in the same industry as I picked my job..
  19. Trading Solars

    My last strategy in PV before going diversified was actually to do a long-term ROE ability analysis of all companies and let that translate to a target PB for my target stock ROI. When a companies PB was below its target PB there was an opportunity to invest in its stock. I exited the industry in early August with my PB targets reached with JKS at $28 and FSLR at $48. My targets were conservative reflecting a conservative view by the market on the industry. The industry has been plagued by the fact that it takes tons of money to make just a little. JKS has been the leader in making more from less in my view. Partly by being leveragable at reasonable risk and expoiting it well. Considering the return on debt as well FSLR has been very. Even looking at just ROE they are second after JKS. They've enjoyed import tariffs for competitors in their home market though while JKS suffered import tariffs for their suppliers in their home market. So ability is distorted a bit by that.
  20. Trading Solars

    One comment on PB. The relevance of it can differ between industries. In a business where it takes money to make money a company with low PB and an opportunity to invest equity to expand a profitable segment (e.g. build PV plants) can offer an opportunity get shares in future profits with lower risk of having that share diluted in the future than equity constrained company. Often the "takes money to make money" oppotunities are more equal to all with money. Companies that can ”create” wealth without need of a lot of equity will typically buy back shares or pay dividends with the equity surplus they create. For these businesses the PB is less relevant than those that need to raise equity to invest in profit opportunities.
  21. Trading Solars

    I hate to say I told you so 2 months ago at $25 but..
  22. Trading Strategy

    My past FARS was today replaced by a new FORS. FARS = Frequent Agressive Rebalancing Strategy FORS = Frequency Optimal Rebalancing Strategy
  23. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Up 18% today on no news. I thought it was too cheap when it traded at $2.00, but I can't explain recent strength since it landed at $3.50. Maybe has something to do with LDK trouble, and provincial politics. Will Jinko as Jiangxi's other big solar benefit from the LDK situation?
  24. Solar News

    That's a big consolidating M&A action.
  25. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Good news that they succeeded in deleveraging the BS. It will be interesting to hear at what margins they were able to do this.
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