explo
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About explo
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Great article odyd
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Basically the concern with CSIQ after JKS deleveraged balance sheet and reach close to $30 book value per share is that it stands out in valuation. I did an IRR analysis of shareholder value growth the past 11 years (we are getting some significant history to work with now) and the rank is: JKS, FSLR, CSIQ, JASO. Then looking at PB you have: CSIQ, FSLR, JKS, JASO. Between CSIQ and JKS CSIQ is higher priced for less performance. The other have either less risky BS or bigger discount motivating their PPS.
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I made a strategic shift in my stock holdings. I moved all CSIQ to JKS. I'm now 20/40/40 JASO/JKS/FSLR.
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The offer has a 96% premium over current market price so I think the market don't give much for that soon two years old non-binding offer.
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Yes it's annoyingly complicated. All I know is that when foreign tax withholding applies for the security distribution in question between the two countries then for my tax free account it seem I have to accept a 15% withholding until my broker has been able to claim it, which takes years.
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My strategic allocation is 60% CN3 equally split and 40% FSLR. Then that strategic allocation is adjusted slight based on relative valuation changes. JKS doing better and FSLR worse since my reference levels have resulted in actual allocation right now being 23/16/19/42 JASO/JKS/CSIQ/FSLR. Since I haven't changed my strategic allocation FSLR became the better buy by being up less than JKS.
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FSLR buy filled
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The big and successful PV companies of Europe are actually exporters of polysilicon and factory equipment to the Chinese PV panel manufacturers and the distributors and project development companies that import PV panels. These former great European companies were indirectly hurt by the EU tariffs as their customer got hurt and ordered less products and then even more as China retaliated by slapping tariffs on their exports to China. The latter were directly hurt by higher supply costs. The biggest victim in the trade war is likely the US polysilicon producers though. Nobody has gained on this trade and the very least those who started it.
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Although the unfair competition argument is still very questionable to me at least there seems to be some acknowledgment and consideration of the negative effects of protectionism now in an effort to balance the protection right with the economic and climate harm it is causing. “This approach balances our legitimate right to protect our industry from unfair competition from dumped or subsidized imports, with the need to consider other companies that rely on these imports to develop their final products and employ thousands of people,” the spokesperson added. The “essential role” that PV is playing in achieving greenhouse gas reduction goals was “an important factor” in the decision.
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I'm not sure about PEGI case, but I have tax free account and I think there are bilateral agreements between countries for this. Normal is that 15% (some agreement have different rate though) is deducted by the country where the dividend was paid from to my country and then my broker can claim that back and credit my account back those 15% a few years later.
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Thanks. This kind of shows Solarworld and others claiming CN dumping that the lower prices of China PV panels comes from lower cost due to an efficient PV supply-chain in China and not from subsidies and dumping. When CN companies diversify manufacturing base from China to Malaysia and US companies from Malaysia to China they are just affirming eachother in that business rationale trumps political rethoric.
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Cao Haiyun Operating expenses, we look into 2017, we still are seeing operating leverage and we estimate it in the range of 10% to 11% of total revenue.
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Some other interesting observations. Gener Miao Yes. So, on front global demand side, we believe 2017 -- compared with 2016, 2017 will definitely be another strong year. And for 2018, from what we have seen, the demand will continue to be strong, maybe the increase will not be as big as what happened in between 2016 and 2017 but still we believe the market demand we will continue going up a little bit. In that case, meanwhile actually there is another expectation from the industry that the gap between tier 1 and tier 2 will become bigger. So, it means that for the top part supplier or top player in this industry will increase their market share across this two to three years time, meanwhile the smaller guys may suffer even further.
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They provided explicit GM guidance for Q1 and Q2 suggesting stabilization of GM after the Q4 free fall. Sebastian Liu Phil, this is Sebastian. I’ll just have one point. So, ASP, we just mentioned or just talked about, just so you know probably average multi high-efficiency product but remember that we have more and more shipments of the mono PERC, which definitely will help increase our overall ASP as well. Philip Shen Okay. That’s definitely helpful. So, as we think about margins, can you share what your expectations might be for Q1 and Q2? Cao Haiyun In terms of gross margin, we estimate a gross margin is relatively stable and in range of 12% to 15%. The high polysilicon price did put some pressures on the gross margin but we are taking our efforts to consolidate silicon cost.
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Transcript is out http://seekingalpha.com/article/4050160-jinkosolars-jks-ceo-chen-kangping-q4-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
