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explo

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explo last won the day on October 1

explo had the most liked content!

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About explo

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    师傅

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  • Location :
    Europe

Portfolio

  • Portfolio %
    125% stocks, 250% funds, 0% solars
  1. Solar News

    That's a big consolidating M&A action.
  2. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Good news that they succeeded in deleveraging the BS. It will be interesting to hear at what margins they were able to do this.
  3. Solar News

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/divided-u-solar-sector-debates-171608631.html Completely expected of course. Is Travis still a deer in tariff headlights with his SPWR love story? It looks like he is hedged by owning FSLR too: https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/10/01/solar-differentiation-not-all-solar-panels-are-cre.aspx
  4. Solar News

    Good speech. Except for one misunderstanding. US c-Si solar module manufacturers will be severely hurt too since they cannot compete with imported Thin Film panels from China when they themselves we see a dramatic solar cell supply cost increase from the hefty solar cell import tariff they will have to pay. Only the very small fraction of US c-Si cell makers will benefit and of course the Canadian c-Si module manufacturers who can convert origin of Vietnamese and Thai cells to Canadian and thus be free of tariff if the president decides to exempt Canada.
  5. Trading Strategy

    Thanks. I will take a look a them. These are the type of things I look for in search of marginal contribution. I need to find quality to add new names, but it must be novel quality, something that differs (e.g. different sector that reacts differently to market and economy state). I share the sentiment. I have tried to be more strategical in using hedge funds to preserve capital since 2010, but solar stocks always had a free role that couldn't be modeled well. Two years ago when I started to develop the risk parity strategy I at least realized that their exposure had to be much lower. The hedges never allowed me to avoid big losses before only to have a reserve to boldly tap and win some back on the rebound. In total over 7 year this has much caused higher risk and much lower returns than overall market. After changing to stocks that are much more stable in their properties I can build a model that considers everything and I can continuously verify it. This makes me sleep much better. I might come up with some model in the future that allows some small mad money again, like you have, without giving up too much of the modeling ability. I've spent 10 years as an analyzing investor of solar stocks with the insight back then that I needed to know the sector I invest in very well by thoroughly analyze all leading companies in it in order to always buy the best companies of a sector. Now I've simple become a portfolio managing investor that don't look at fundamentals at all. It's sort of a long-term (20-30 years) TA, but from a marginal contribution perspective. "This stock has had this behavior consistently over 3 decades. It is a stable behavior and it complements the behaviors of existing portfolio stocks and thus contributes and get allocated." The company of the stocks picked are great companies, but it is just a result of picking great stocks. I bet I will miss the fundamental analysis of companies. I think I've acquired and eye for quick BS assessment etc. Some would say I've gone from a strategy of trying to buy future performance to simply buy past performance. And while it is true I think this is the easier way to buy future performance and it certainly helps sleep to not bet on that I'm a better predictor of the future than Mr Market is and I get more time for other things. I don't need to deal with solar crashes on vacation travels anymore. To still get the foresight component some of my funds serve the role of trying to beat the market and some of them have 50+ highly qualified employees working full-time on that task.
  6. Trading Strategy

    SCSolar it sounds like you are well diversified within the equity asset class. One safe and cheap diversified pure beta part, one income (dividend) part to help diversify investment timing and with likely lower beta without sacrifizing return and finally one alpha generation focused part trying to tactically time exposures. We've been in a period where concentration on equities has paid off. Over time I believe asset class diversification allocated at risk parity will have the highest risk-adjusted return. In terms of which equity strategy is bestif opting for one I agree with your last part about blue chips focus. When tuning my equities basket I found that the utilities and healthcare sectors are very strong and complementary and those two can form a sizable base. They sort of act like fixed income assets. The utilities have stable principal value and income with some bonus growth. The healthcare stocks resists stock market weakness and make occational surges similar to fixed income assets when interest rates are falling quickly. Mix this with normal stocks and you get a stocks basket that has quasi asset class diversified behavior (good risk adjusted return). I think the trick is simply to focus on blue chips and overweight the utilities and healthcare sectors.
  7. Trading Strategy

    It actually had nothing to do with my view of solars. I wanted to change my allocation strategy from 70% funds + 5% stocks to something more like 50% funds + 25% stocks with retained risk parity (see the "About me" in my profile for risk parity strategy description). This meant I had to pick a stocks basket that was 7 times less risky than the one I had. The solars simply did not qualify for the new strategy. I also started to do more exact marginal contribution analysis of each stock in the same way I do for funds. Stocks that offer high long-term return at low risk and market correlation tend to contribute well. Solar stocks to be honest have so far offered negative long-term return at high risk. Basically only JKS have positive return trend since inception but its risk is still too high. My view of them now is that I'll wait for them to grow up and pick the ones that grew strongest if/when they qualify.
  8. Trading Strategy

    Almost everything has done well. It is one hedge fund strategy that has had its worst performance in 20 years that is pulling everything down and short-term I'm hurt by USD weakness too. I think my allocation revision done in Q3 (increasing stocks exposure five fold at expense of funds exposure) will improve the expected long-term performance and I hope to see some short-term example of it soon. I've still done much better than the TAN the past two years so I don't regret not staying highly exposed to solars as I did up until 2015.
  9. Trading Strategy

    Yesterday, on the first day of Q4, the stocks came out of their 571 days long drawdown. I hope the record stands for a while..
  10. Trading Solars

    Great post SCSolar
  11. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    It seems that the loophole making Asian cells Canadian and thus allowing Canadian module manufactures to kill the US ones can be handled by the president by not exempting Canada. The questions is whether this is likely to happen.. Q: Are imports from all countries affected? It was alluded that maybe some countries are excluded. Nicely: Safeguard measures are supposed to be global, but we agreed with our FTA partners (all except Korea and Mexico) to possibly allow them an exclusion. This is the Commission voted Canada, Singapore, and several other FTA partners do not injure the domestic industry and are therefore likely to be exempt from the Commission's remedy recommendation. But, the President can decide to ignore this recommendation and make the relief truly global. I hate these trade cases. It just freezes the industry investments for a long period until the rules of the game are defined again and by repeatedly doing this it is slowing down the evolution of renewable tech enough so that the planet has enough time to reach the point of no return for climate change disaster (the accelerated warming feedback loop that is incredible hard to break ones 2 degrees warming is surpassed). The president has the chance to take full credit for the decision to let another straw break the camel's back. I'm sure he wants to be remembered and we tend to not remember those who don't leave a mark. Planet destruction is a tangible mark..
  12. Solar News

    As well as an end of life program that c-Si do not need to worry about. Those end of life costs, which is a service value to customers, are already on balance sheet. What Matt talk about was an off balance sheet potential environmental disaster liability. I guess such liability would be required to be disclosed in annual SEC filing..? I've not checked. They always keep a huge cash reserve which seems to not have provided good return on equity as the past 5 years cash has been a horrible asset class for that. Maybe it makes more sense if it's purpose is to cover some off balance sheet liabilities..? It is not impossible that their contracts not only state that they'll take care of the toxic panels at end of life but also will cover any liability their customer might face related to an environmental disaster caused by the combination of the toxicity of the panels and a natural disaster releasing it to nature. This would make their panels easier to sell at higher ASP.
  13. Solar News

    Yes I sold it when I modified my strategy.
  14. Solar News

    Series 5 would still use S4 lines and thus extend their ROI collection time. The crash in ASP made the leap directly to S6 more attractive when they realized they could do a brownfield instead of greenfield investment. It's not so much about tech evolution, more about milking ROI from expensive equipment before buying new.
  15. Solar News

    It's not science. It's logistics. 3 GW are big fat factories. Switching requires idling lines for a while and they don't want to idle all at once. Do you think they would spend 1 billion to roll this out if it was just an untested idea? It's real. This is why I bought FSLR long-term, not the possible benefit that might go away again in 4 years. I would never buy FSLR at this valuation if I did not believe S6 has an advantage in a trade barrier free marketplace.
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