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sunnypease

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Everything posted by sunnypease

  1. Solar News

    Or we could have just bought Enphase. Holy cow... what is going on with that stock?? Evidently something changed... I am reading their 10Q trying to see it. GM up a little. I guess people are loving the idea of selling their product through JKS. And loving their new CEO. But it seems they have the same issue with being nearly out of money.
  2. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    That's amazing. If countries are not quickly shifting costly gas turbine peakers over to solar they must be getting paid off. How did you calculate $0.92/W? Mexico has a lot of sun of course.
  3. Trading Solars

    From what I remember it did the same thing last quarter & then rallied.
  4. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Good job Gordan. Woo woo! Klothilde, thanks for your reply. I was speaking of poly increasing supply to meet demand. Should happen, right? You spoke also of another issue: increasing capacity of module/cell/wafer in the face of flat or not ramping fast enough demand. One thing to note here is the 1st tier vs others. Over the past year JKS and I think also CSIQ have been able to get higher prices for their modules than the pvinsights listed rate. Also JKS/CSIQ tend to sell their inventory ahead of capacity build out. Every year China blows everyone out of the water with their installation roll out. US way is to talk a lot and do nothing. China way is to talk little & do a lot. And the good thing is that the Chinese seem to pay good prices for their modules. A couple of groups have announced some big capacity expansion projects. I wonder if you see Mark & crew @ First Solar as ahead of the curve & so their move to lock in prices for a few years out is influencing your view of the supply/demand balance. Are you looking at S&D numbers for MW for the coming years? A few weeks ago you had said the PB is a good measure for value. Here we are talking about the now & less about the future. Do you think things have improved on this front?
  5. Trading Solars

    Wow good job Robert! That must feel pretty good. I didn't realize that wall street analysts were actually on SA having a read. I wonder how many are right here on SPVI. I swear that when you put out your price targets around springtime, the stocks seemed to rise and then at least pause right at your targets for a little while. Maybe I was just imagining.
  6. Trading Solars

    Good job Robert. He put a TP on JASO over their go private price & the stock rallied towards his target well over the go private. So I hope he puts out a good word for CSIQ. Did he seem worried about poly prices? Is he frustrated with CSIQ management's communication of their results?
  7. Trading Solars

    sell low, buy high? Well there might be something to it. I'm always afraid to follow a trend, but those trends do often seem to march on. SEDG & DQ are certainly strong players.
  8. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    It seems like the disagreement here is current situation vs future situation. Robert is taking the approach of carefully counting each contribution to gross margin & conversion of debt into equity and cash. The thesis is that value will increase along the balance sheet. Meanwhile Klothilde is pointing towards a future that looks maybe even more difficult than current conditions. Klothilde... Do you agree that CSIQ module margins may improve if poly prices come down? Given the current 50% margins -- production will likely increase to grab those profits. As for system margins, it seems that the question is either the margins are good, but the tax equity carry is watering the margins down. Or that margins are just not that great. FSLR system margins were good -- and investors have been celebrating a future contract pipeline in the US. Why would it be different with CSIQ?
  9. Trading Solars

    Can someone remind me why do solar manufacturers not include poly silicon as part of their business?
  10. Trading Solars

    There were a few SA articles pointing out that they will need financing. And a while ago Robert moved them into the "bankrupt" bin.
  11. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    They hold tax equity on their books & meanwhile incur interest, and they are doing their buyers a favor delivering tax equity to an organization otherwise unable to benefit, so I would imagine some margin there. I have no idea though. So you think the story is still good on CSIQ, but there are poly & fx headwinds, meanwhile the company's presentation of their plant sales leaves everyone confused. You think then that CSIQ may fall due to this uncertainty but at some point CSIQ will deliver rather good results... because the probably the solar sales will probably still impress. Meanwhile we have pitfalls of tariffs, tax policy, and possible module pricing declines. On a positive note, there are the climate meetings this week.
  12. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Thank you for the insight Robert. All of this complexity of selling with an option to repurchase.. I guess this is because of how CSIQ helps project buyers, who may be non-profit organizations, take advantage of tax equity. Are you saying that CSIQ does not get any margin from passing this tax equity to the buyer? Or was the margin recognized at a prior time? Sounds like you are still happy being long on CSIQ? Your 95% profile is still accurate?
  13. Solar News

    Not sure what you mean about only a threat to sunpower. CSIQ's big business are solar farms. Also PTC seems more protected as more Red states have more wind than solar? This is just a hunch, not backed up by a count of states. Also I read the PTC cut is not in the Senate version of the tax bill. Meanwhile they are considering boosting incentives for "biomass" (I hope this is not ethanol), "small wind" (bird killers), "hydropower" (there is not enough hydropower which has now been shown to increase methane emissions?), and "fuel cells" (inefficient sources of power generation?) And of course a big boost for our favorite: "expanded 45Q carbon capture and sequestration credit" (burry that crap & hope it stays down there for the next 1000 years)
  14. Solar News

    Did everyone see this? https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/house-tax-bill-impact-on-wind-solar-electric-cars uncertainty caused by possible ITC CUTS!?
  15. Solar News

    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/11/10/cnrec-advises-reform-and-increased-re-targets-in-china/ "advice that the target for solar PV deployment by 2020 be raised from 110 GW to 200 GW" This sounds big! I'm proud to live on the same planet as China.
  16. Trading Strategy

    If you are not a programmer, I'd be happy to help you along.. we could work on some models together.
  17. Trading Solars

    Jinko up 5% today. Was there good news on the poly front in the HQCL report?
  18. Trading Solars

    Feeling better today.
  19. Hanwha Q CELLS (HQCL)

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hanwha-q-cells-reports-third-quarter-2017-results-300553788.html They beat while earning 6 cents a share. With a 2-3% operating margin & most measures going against them. Not sure about the lumpiness but the stock seems fully valued @ 9.
  20. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Woo hoo. More upgrades! This one from ROTH to $24. However, his SOTP values the JP portfolio at $9? Maybe he means future projects there. https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Roth+Capital+Upgrades+Canadian+Solar+(CSIQ)+to+Buy+Citing+Strength+of+Management+Execution/13491332.html
  21. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    You mean that SZ+NC+AUS+CN projects are still 150M short of their Q4 guide? For ASP: Remember also that 4th quarter may start to see a depression in US pricing because so many people stockpiled. Does CSIQ rely on sales to 3rd parties in the US? Or is it all for Recurrent?
  22. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Curious.. why isn't CSIQ just making their own poly? The boost in poly pricing was caused by an interruption at a big plant? These margins must come down. Just looked at DQ's margins last quarter: EBITDA margin of 49.8%! There is some fat in those numbers and the module makers need some of it. Poly guys are going to have to start sharing. And with that recent announcement of 30GW more wafers and much more module capacity all around, seems like we seriously need to hear more about poly capacity boosts soon. Have there been some? Maybe this quarter will be a good one for DQ? The stock is already bid up, but it looks like the 2nd quarter of fat margins & I've seen before that when a company pulls something off 2 times... then Wall Street jumps in thinking it's permanent.
  23. https://www.awea.org/SenateTaxReformPTC Senate tax reform keeps the PTC as is. Also PEGI in their CC Q3 2017, though it may no longer be relevant: Let me start with - we support many parts of tax reform, but we don't think the House provisions modifying the PTCs available to wind will survive. We are very good encouraged by the recent announcements of several key Republican senators saying that these provisions are dead on arrival in the Senate. As background, it's important to remember that the proposed House tax bill improves the returns on our existing assets over time primarily as a result of the lower corporate tax rate. Additionally, our near-term growth is primarily outside the U.S. as evidenced by over 60% of our iROFO assets are outside the U.S. The bill has currently proposed primarily affects new projects being developed by Pattern Development. Pattern Development's pipeline has a number of projects that could be delayed, killed or need to be modified if the House bill were to be passed in its current form. But beyond those few projects Pattern Development would adjust the pricing of its power sales reflecting any new tax law. This may make certain wind projects less competitive and could slow Pattern Development's growth in the U.S. for a limited period. But over the time, the market will adjust and continue to grow. Clearly, the bill does not affect our growth activities outside the U.S. So let's see what happens in the coming weeks. I think it is clear. It will become clear and we will be favorable and it will be favorable, but it will require some patience.
  24. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Wait.. they are saying Gross margin for the fourth quarter of 2017 is expected to be between 10.5% and 12.5%. Meanwhile for this quarter: Gross margin was 17.5% Operating margin was 6.3% in the third quarter of 2017.. So we can assume an operating margin of 0% next quarter? I must be missing more detail here.
  25. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Robert, how much of a downgrade is this in your calculations? You said: "The plants average 13% and without Japan, they are 11%" What were you expecting again? How does it effect your EPS calculation?
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