Solar Investor
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Everything posted by sunnypease

  1. That's great. I'm looking forward to that. It will be interesting to see how the solars hold up to this weeks Trump doo doo storm. Judging by the futures this morning the poo is starting to hit the fan in a serious way.
  2. I dunno. FSLR is worth either just net cash value or a whole heck of a lot depending on if they can pull off Series 6, but I have my doubts about that. Maybe you could adjust the CSIQ PT to match my basis which is 11.60 or so?
  3. We should consider using Google numbers to create & share spreadsheets of calculations.... good way to see & remember calculations & they can be easily shared -- either read only or group edit.
  4. OK Thanks for that. Credit Suisse has a 6 PT for JASO. They don't seem to cover CSIQ. They put 20 on JKS.
  5. Curious if you have a guess for a JASO PT.
  6. I've noticed solars tend to drop on Friday on low volume. That is why the FSLR removal has me spooked. I think FSLR being in broad market ETFs did more to the other solar stock prices than most of us realize.
  7. JKS said that 1H demand will be firm and ASPs will be firm. 2H will drop 10-15% due to drop off in Chinese demand. By the end of Q1, pvinsights says it will be a little more than 5%. So why are you buying CSIQ now Robert? Was it because of their downstream business? I'm looking forward to your next article Robert.
  8. I wonder if CN solars will move up when US solars won't. Seems like the market puts a big emphasis on current profitability. CSIQ & HQCL down while JASO & JKS up.
  9. ok just doubled it. If we go down. We go down together! (I've got an extra couch)
  10. small batch 11.86 I can't convince myself to do more. I don't understand why ASPs are still falling. 1H was supposed to be strong demand in China. Only in 2Q?
  11. That'll be big business. If they can't make money at it, I bet someone else steps up and buys them -- if they are the leader of the obvious next planetary fuel source.
  12. Seems like one can buy here. A couple of these CN solars have said that 2Q will be good due to FIT cutoff. It is 2H that is the unknown, but if stocks have run too far, we can keep an eye on pvinsights & just get out if the ASPs start to drop too much. Sorry I didn't start a CSIQ -- your confidence is inspiring. Maybe tomorrow. Sorry, but I'm hoping for a quick little further drop down & then I'll grab.
  13. Back when I paid attention to Travis I stayed away from RUN. He wrote there is something fishy with their finances. Oh I remember: They count each installation as a 30 year or more sort of deal. Something like that. They assume that the customer will continue to pay for the same old equipment... 30 years from now. This might be Solar city that I'm thinking of though.
  14. Wow, if you can nail the LOD like that you should consider day trading CLF. Or did you just get lucky. It's probably a pretty good day to buy. Everyone in panic because BAC dropped 6%. It should drop 20%! You said HQCL could be good. Their Q3 margins were 19.9% ASP .43 However they said it would take a year to reduce costs 10 - 15%.: "we continue to expect to maintain 5% to 10% year-over-year cost reduction" According to the nasdaq site the estimate is 0.05 EPS 4Q. Any thoughts on this?
  15. Robert - If under 12 is what you'd be happy with, then go ahead & buy now. It's 12.12. 1% higher than what you want to pay. I remember last winter you said you must wait until under 10 & it was at 10.40 or something like that. I guess the difference now is the bull market feels like it is waning. Indeed, no economic data seems to convince people to buy more. That is a big difference between now and buying solar during the last glut. Stock prices so high now. However, solars *should* be more immune to market gyrations given their P/Es are so low. Matt
  16. There are a few market & sort of sector things pressuring prices: Those that went long on oil are starting to reconsider. (big bets from big players) Trump says any day he'll use an executive order to start dismantling the CPP. Solar bulls (momos) spirits are broken because they went long on FSLR & SPWR thinking the end of the glut was here only to find out it isn't. Some lost 25% in a couple weeks. Trump trade unwinding. ASPs down 4% in quarter. CSIQ declared losses. (Not sure if anyone pays attention to these) Then again, the planet is still heating up. Only time before everyone rushes back to solar.
  17. Nobody here ever discusses RUN. Why's that? Just a terrible investment?
  18. You said HQCL could prove to be a good investment. Probably no need to buy ahead of earnings. If they are good maybe you can get them on the same or next day.
  19. Market is down, probably everyone staring at their losses, feeling like they can't afford a sandwich for lunch.
  20. That's how good it gets? I guess this is what it feels like buying near the bottom. Hopefully its the bottom! Do you think we'll continue to see selling over the next few days? Seems like wall street losing Trump confidence & S&P totally topped out. But then what do I know. I'm traveling now so didn't get a chance to listen to CSIQ's CC.
  21. Sounds like they got the Turkish government to pay for a solar factory in Turkey? 1.3B for 1GW must include the cost of the factory. Or? If HQCL has some upside potential, now seems like a good time to buy. The stock has never been cheaper. I forgot to buy some CSIQ ahead of earnings. Do you think they will beat? They made a lot of news within the quarter.
  22. At some point, solar becomes cheap enough to deploy en masse. I guess what is holding that back now is: companies with too much debt already, sleeping politicians, the balance of system costs still too high? Once we hit en masse, then won't there just be a mad rush for the stuff? Everyone pushing & elbowing to get it. Also, this glut will shake out some weaker players. When there are fewer players, maybe they'll collude a bit to raise or stabilize prices?
  23. Today FSLR is getting hosed & SPWR likes to ape along. Today also FSLR was removed from the S&P500. I've read that this means today & the next few(?) days ETFs like SPY will be selling FSLR, because they have to. I'm rather happy about this as maybe we'll see solar stocks trade without so much SPY influence.