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dydo

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16 minutes ago, dydo said:

"It elaborates, “ …polysilicon consumption per W of wafer side will decrease significantly next year when most of multi wafers are sliced by DWS, which could reduce silicon consumption by 17% per piece. Together with increasing market share of mono product, which generates more power from a single piece, we expect the unit consumption of polysilicon in 2018 to be 9% less than that in 2017.” "

and

"Prices are not expected to decrease much by the end of this year, or in the first half of 2018. However, BNEF writes that on the back of an increased usage of monocrystalline products and diamond wire saw (DWS) technology, and increased production capacities, polysilicon shortage will be alleviated in the coming year. Unless, of course, there is another installation boom, like that seen in China this year. "

I speculate to see a lot less China growth in the first part of 2018, enabling lower prices and stocking up. I also believe that 17% decrease in cost of poly per piece of a wafer is significant when such a wafer is treated with improved MCCE processing, yielding higher efficiency. Combination of lower poly count per watt, lower production of the ingot, and higher efficiency matching mono (not my words but Qu's) indicate significant potential for CSIQ, which is rapidly increasing production of own wafers and ingots. I am also expecting some agreement with poly manufacturing if cash reserve permits, with new capacity being added.  

Nice Poly at $19 dropping to $15 and reduced silicon usage should cut 10-12% off the current costs that are in the low $0.30s.    Add some process savings in cell and modules and that $0.27 or less looks very reasonable in the second half of 2018.

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2 hours ago, dydo said:

Yes, Vietnam is an old story and a headache for many industries, not only solar. The problem is that China, to discourage energy intensive production domestically (energy deficit, pollution, smog, etc), like ferro-alloys, steel, and other products, which require a lot of energy, placed export taxes for such products, around 20% (depending on the materials group). But temptation is high to produce cheap in China and sell globally. So, since China & Vietnam is a free trade zone, “smart” merchants started to move bulks of materials into Vietnam, where Certificate of origin was faked (changed to Vietnamese) and then sold globally as Vietnamese goods…

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Grassley who supports amendments to exclude PTC and ITC from the BEAT was not selected for the committee. That is a bad news. 

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25 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

PV project developer Phoenix Solar filing for insolvency:
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2017/12/08/phoenix-solar-ag-must-file-for-insolvency/

This aligns beautifully with the notion of high risk / low margin for the project business.  

It aligns with need for strong financial condition. If you do not have money of your own you cannot build.  I expect a lot more exits especially in the US due to lack of tax equity financing.

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