Jump to content
dydo

Solar News

Recommended Posts

Travis is trying to convince himself that FSLR is not that better off. FSLR CEO perhaps got worried that Trump could freak out and tariff all imports of solar product including cadmium, hence the letter including the difference.  Imagine Trumps sets the tariff on "all imports" of solar, FSLR is done.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-first-solar-tariff-windfall-130000931.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Mark said:

Running scared is the dumbest description one could make of it. FSLR has been given monopoly and American company is saying it is not right. The only difference between logistics and organization of two is material. I hope that Trump will tariff all imports including cadmium. Now the game is fair. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

US (TRUMP) is thinking of leaving Nafta.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/12/business/economy/what-would-happen-if-the-us-withdrew-from-nafta.html

 

So if US withdraws from NAFTA, tariffs could revert to WTO levels.  

Article talks about what the US might pay to export goods to US & Canada, but I didn't see anything about what US would charge on imports.

It would probably be at least the export cost, otherwise this procedure wouldn't make much sense.  Those levels are 7% Mexico and 4% Canada.  If that happens, SPWR especially would be hurt & CSIQ too.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, dydo said:

Huge news, Taiwanese three companies consolidate into one, United Renewable Energy, I wonder what Motech will do. It was biggest alone before.

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/gintech-nsp-and-solartech-to-merge-and-drop-merchant-business-model

That's a big consolidating M&A action.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have no place to discuss this topic so that this thread will do. My first article on SA got published in 2012. I wrote at the time ASP was at $1.34, and the cost was $0.94 per watt. TSL sold 1.5GW for the entire year. In 5 years companies sell four times this, but their margins are 30% to 44% of what is used to be. CSIQ was at about $2.56 per share.

The tech was weak then. I have this feeling that technology is going to push solar in the next five years to unknown to us levels. Perhaps twice further at least as last five years were.

I am looking to other technologies. Every time I do I come back to the conclusion, that solar industry is deeply undervalued and certainly manipulated for years when it comes to the markets. Those improvements mentioned earlier are phenomenal.  Yieldcos got built on it, and they are more valued than projects builders and equipment makers who build projects. 

Electric cars are coming, and solar is such obvious choice for electricity. Let’s hold on for the next five years and see what happens.

I think we will see another two major companies go through reorganization. SunPower comes to mind. I think we will see JA Solar come off the market sold. Yingli seems like it is holding for too long.

I think with JA and SPWR gone from the market the value of others will go up. I think this somewhat happened after TSL left the scene.

I am curious about the ideas on above

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with your view and I´ve got my money where my mouth is, on the one hand with and investment account and also with a trading account, looking only for bullish opportunities.

I think the market is severely underallocating capital to solar for several reasons;

- The Feed in Tariff interfered with the market mechanism leading to a short lived artificial boom period; gross missallocations and overvalued companies. The following bust was painful and investors are very skeptical and fearful of the sector.

-Trump´s stance on climate change has contributed to the feeling of apprehension towards the sector.

- The bankrupcy cycle has left few players in the market, and with growing demand for solar (as already seen in 2017), prices and margins will improve dramatically with demand.

PE ratios seem ridicolously low, I mean in some cases the single digits, for a sector that is projected to grow hugely in the near future.

I have the conviction that these are the early days of the bull market, there is still a lot of fear and reluctance from amateur investors, which is good. There will be corrections along the way, but the trend is upwards and there is still a long way to go until the final phase of euphoria is reached.

As Livermore put it "Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon". If one is long, I think for the foreseeable future its a case of being one of those men.

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, dydo said:

I am curious about the ideas on above

I agree that the technology has made phenomenal strides, and that trend is likely to continue.  Two thoughts, though, on what will likely continue to hold back the industry from fulfilling investors' dreams, at least in the near term:

1.  While the cost of PV generation has fallen by orders of magnitude over the last few decades, storage continues to be an issue.  When we make the same kinds of breakthroughs in price for storage, THEN renewables in general will truly become unstoppable.  We're making progress, and lithium-ion technology has come a long way, but we're not there yet.  (An alternative is a much greater connection of geographically separated grids.  If the sun isn't shining at your location, you can either draw from storage or get electricity from where the sun IS shining.  And connecting geographically separate regions also makes each region much more reliable and less prone to failure, as the separate regions serve as backups for each other.  But that type of connectivity takes a long time to achieve at the scale required, and it takes significant investment from the utilities involved.  Plus, the grids involved may cross national boundaries, making the coordination involved even more complicated.  So, it's another great idea that's going to take a long time to implement in practice.)

2.  As you note, Robert, demand has already skyrocketed compared to years past, but margins have actually fallen, and are now razor-thin for many companies.  So greater demand does not automatically translate to greater profits.  And the market only cares about profits.  Yieldcos partnering with manufacturers and project builders are an interesting possibility, but so far they're off to a rough start.  So right now, even with all the increase in global demand so far, no solar company has demonstrated a business model leading to both substantial and sustained profits.  Instead, we've had a series of boom-bust cycles, with any periods of significant profits being relatively short-lived.  I'm not convinced we've seen the last of those times.

So I agree the long-term trend is positive, but for the next several years at least, I still think the way to profit from solar is to trade the heck out of it.  "Buy the dips and sell the rips."  Buy and hold is still premature, in my view.

Solarpete

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×