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Hello, I am new to this forum. I have several questions for anyone who is willing to answer: first, is it economically viable to purchase land in the american southwest at super cheap prices and build an extremely small PV solar farm on the order of 100kw? What is a guesstimate cost in price per watt of an installation of this size? And what would be income per year? The numbers I've been seeing range between $2.30 and $3.50 per watt (quite a range). And income would be around $9000-$10000 per year? Thanks to anyone who can offer input! 

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On 5/7/2018 at 7:20 AM, Klothilde said:

Hanergy launching its solar umbrella, the Humbrella:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hanergy-launches-innovative-thin-film-solar-powered-humbrella-300642714.html

Will this shield the company from future shareholder lawsuits?

Ha ha.  well.. that thing better be strongly protected from the wind.  

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On 3/22/2018 at 6:57 PM, tupapa said:

I´ve read a number of books, most of them have been a waste of money and time. The best book I´ve ever read and the only one I recommend reading is Richard Wyckoffs Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks, published in the early 1930s, pretty much everything I use for trading is found within its pages.

This particular trade is a rather straightforward setup;

42 is approximately the 50% of the most recent long term upwave (20-72), it is holding so buyers are supporting price, hence the probabilities point towards another upwave. If however buyers fail and sellers push prices below this critical 50% ret. level, the stock is in trouble and I don´t wanna be anywhere near it.

A part from all this technical stuff, my favourite confirmation for entering a trade is if a brokerage house or reputable institution issues some form of statement. For instance if JP Morgan downgrades a stock (e.g. DAQO), it means they are probably accumulating shares and they are luring retail investors into selling.

IT wouldn´t surprise me if the most recent 350 M stock issuance was some form of accumulation by some financial sindicate.

1- They bash the stock upon great earnings, retail investors panick and sell, but somebody buys everything at 42.

2- JP Morgan issues the downgrade to get more traders to panick sell.

3- Daqo issues 350 Million of new stock at 42 and hands it over to some sindicate, perhaps even JP Morgan themselves.

4- There is no more supply, price can continue its merry way upward, JP MORGAN and other sindicates now own a stock they purchased at CIRCA 3.5 PE

 

Im not the type to blow his own trumpet but the most recent price action in daqo shows such a blatant case of outright manipulation that I feel compelled to point it out once more.

Jpmorgan downgrade a 6 PE ratio stock, they then accumulate all the stock issuance, once they are done the stock flies.

Watch out for the buy ratings, next stop 120, of course I remain 100% invested.

Edited by tupapa

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Tongwei signs major 55,000MT polysilicon supply deal with LONGi
https://www.pv-tech.org/news/tongwei-signs-major-55000mt-polysilicon-supply-deal-with-longi
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20180523/899697.shtml

OMG the poly glut is coming you guys.  We are heading towards $10 poly.  Now get out your calculators and do your DQ crunchies.

Also check out the guangfu post to see how Longi structures their contracts.  Prices are negotiated on a monthly basis.  So don't you let anybody tell you the DQ deal with Longi is fixed price you guys.

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Well, I guess the news that FSLR was meeting in London with ROTH yesterday didn't amount to anything.  Anyone else notice the influx of tinkering with FSLR lately?  Starting with those upgrades ahead of earnings, then the upgrade after earnings, then that volume and price spike the other day (on a rumor of buyout... more like a rumor of a rumor of a buyout) and then Monday with the news that FSLR execs were meeting with ROTH in London.  Lots of jerking around.  

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All other solars that I follow (JKS, CSIQ, RUN, and DQ) have also been similarly "jerked around."  I think it's just the usual daily manic-depressive mood swing of the market towards solars.  One day they're going to be the salvation of mankind, the next everyone's going broke.

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What is wrong with Chinese solar stocks today?  I see large drop on high volume on DQ, CSIQ and JKS without any news.  Anyone can speculate on this recent drop (besides the usual poly and wafer price drops and potential trade war)?

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I noticed the same thing.  As for why, I'll just note this seems to happen every so often for no reason--all Chinese solars tank.  Then after a few days or weeks, they all rise, again for no reason.

At least this time I have some buying power in reserve--DQ is getting tastier the lower it goes!

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Thanks.  JKS seems cheap at this price ($2 below the shares just issued not too long ago).  I just added some more JKS and dipped my toes in DQ for a quick trade.  Good luck.

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Yes, JKS is getting quite cheap--or is it?  They're closing in on a 52-week low, and they have not yet reported 1Q earnings.  And their trailing 12-month earnings are pitiful.  When they do report, if it's another dime or so (and what would be the catalyst for better numbers?), I can see them dropping further.

I have some, but I'm not buying any more until they start showing they can actually make money again.

RUN is showing remarkable strength.  I'm looking to buy more trading positions on any dips.  Missed getting a buy filled on this morning's dip by 2 cents!  Sigh....

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CSIQ earning shows the margin on modules was good.  The margin on projects was what depressed its overall margin.  JKS sold its power business and concentrates mostly on modules.  If it has the module margin similar to that of CSIQ, its earning should be good.  That is the hope at least.  Also, now you can get it $2 less than the bargain someone just got it not too long ago.  Also, the poly prices have been coming down quite a bit lately.  This should benefit module makers, unless module prices come down faster, which I hope not.

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36 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

CSIQ earning shows the margin on modules was good.  The margin on projects was what depressed its overall margin.  JKS sold its power business and concentrates mostly on modules.  If it has the module margin similar to that of CSIQ, its earning should be good.  That is the hope at least.  Also, now you can get it $2 less than the bargain someone just got it not too long ago.  Also, the poly prices have been coming down quite a bit lately.  This should benefit module makers, unless module prices come down faster, which I hope not.

The problem with JKS is their guidance for the year in MW shipment increases over 2017. None of the other solars guided quite such a large increase(3GW or 30% growth).

With their Q1 guidance, they will make teens for earnings at best. I would not be surprised if they get 15-16% margins with most of the manufacturing being internal.

 

If they suddenly increase shipments by 50%+ for Q2 over Q1, they rely on more out sourced modules that drives margins down. I expect around 20% outsourced low margin modules cutting their overall margins to the 14% range.

 

Don't get me wrong, at 14% margins and 3GW in shipments they can earn pretty decent money. They could push $0.90-$1 a quarter at those margins if they meet guidance volumes.  It is the guidance volumes that is questionable.

 

The other concern is that they are selling to their former power business. That business is greater than 10% of their guidance and might be 15%. I would expect those modules to be sold with favorable terms and pricing as their chairman owns the company.  That may be a big part of why JKS margins are below others in the industry for internal production.

 

With all that said, there is decent upside potential on future earnings that would entice me at being a buyer in the $15-$16 range. I would be a quick seller if margins for q1 are below 15% or guidance is revised down for shipments

 

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Saw some comments on the JKS Yahoo board that the Chinese have lowered their solar electricity subsidy.  Probably the reason for today's selloff.

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The PV industry in China is coming to grips with the new policy, and boy are they panicking (check out the articles). As of June 1st grid-connected power plants are no longer subsidized.  For distributed generation a firm quota of 10GW for the whole of  2018  is in place, however people think that the quota has already been filled in the first five months. So basically the Chinese market has been reduced to the poverty alleviation and the front runner programs, which are secondary in scale.

Folks in China think the policy will be devastating and will result in most companies going out of business.

Me personally I think we're now headed towards an unprecedented period of overcapacity and that prices along the whole supply chain are headed towards the rock bottom, including polysilicon.  I expect most capacity expansion plans which have not been started to be cancelled.

Hope we all come out of this relatively unscathed...  Beware of the pumpers trying to pump their stock despite all of this.  I'm sure even FSLR will be affected so I'm kinda having a hard time with my buy-and-hold approach myself.

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20180604/902815.shtml

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20180604/902790.shtml

 

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Chinese solar power stocks plunge as government moves to contain industry size
http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2149131/chinese-solar-power-stocks-plunge-government-moves-contain

“The prices of the industry chain will come under big pressure. Industry consolidation may last for six to 12 months.”

Be careful you guys.

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