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Pete,

I think there is some delay between the reported market prices and the time when this prices show up on the balance sheet, as most panels are not sold on the spot market by the big manufacturers but contracts are signed some time in advance.

So the real drop has not effected earnings this time..

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Pete, I think that JKS will be able to sell PERC mono modules at about 3 to 5 cents more per watt than regular modules would get. This can help them with the GM. The 25% of volume or around 2GW, may have about 1 cent impact per ASP average for the year. 

However, this will help not necessarily with profit, but the elimination of loss.

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19 hours ago, slowtrader said:

most panels are not sold on the spot market by the big manufacturers but contracts are signed some time in advance.

Precisely--and that's why I think JKS will remain profitable even in 1Q17.  They guided for expanded shipments.  If you're selling at a loss just to maintain market share, you'd sell the bare minimum amount necessary to maintain your market position.  You wouldn't expand shipments to record levels.  Their shipment volume guidance indicates they've run the numbers (meaning they have an expected selling price) and concluded expansion is the proper course.  It just doesn't make sense to me they'd do that when expecting to operate at a loss during that time.

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17 hours ago, odyd said:

Pete, I think that JKS will be able to sell PERC mono modules at about 3 to 5 cents more per watt than regular modules would get. This can help them with the GM. The 25% of volume or around 2GW, may have about 1 cent impact per ASP average for the year. 

However, this will help not necessarily with profit, but the elimination of loss.

It will help, in any case.  We'll see soon enough what 1Q17 brings in terms of profit or loss--the quarter is nearly over already.

One early indicator may be when companies announce their earnings reports--the pattern for many seems to be report early in the period if you have good news, wait if it's bad.  Or maybe that's just my perception?

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Jinko is certainly contrary to the trend, I see that PEGI is soft, so their plans scared rather than inspired.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

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Sungevity is bankrupt now and Jinko is entering commercial solar with new capital. An area which is taken by SunPower. I suppose SunPower will try hold to its residential gains, but this is hardly a revenue provider to support the cash flow needs. 

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After a two year pause, I am gathering estimates on adding solar to the roof of my small office building.  It's relevant to a lot of what we discuss here -- ITC and local incentives, utilities and net metering, panel prices, U.S. vs. Chinese modules, payoff periods, etc.

Thus far, it is looking like a no-brainer as we race to get grandfathered into utility's current net metering system (that changes in July).  I will post the breakdown when I get a little more info, but right now, looks like Hanwha modules, 60-70 percent of energy covered by solar and a 6-8 year payoff.  (Other nice thing is that I need a roof job anyway, and if roofing is part of solar install, it is included in the 30 percent ITC - saves me a couple grand right there.)

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On 3/27/2017 at 7:56 PM, SolarRoof said:

Hanwha modules, 60-70 percent of energy covered by solar and a 6-8 year payoff.  (Other nice thing is that I need a roof job anyway, and if roofing is part of solar install, it is included in the 30 percent ITC - saves me a couple grand right there.)

strange how popular HQCL is in the US and how low the stock is.

Crazy that you can pay it off in 6-8 years and people are not flocking to this.  

x^7=2  is about 11%  

Your payoff includes a new roof?  Includes labor & inverter too?

DIY or an installer?

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Actually, payoff would be longer if I include the roof costs -- yet, I need one regardless and the ITC saves me 30 percent on that work.  I will have final engineering and estimate soon.  As good as all this looks, changes to net metering and incentives could change everything in the future.  Once batteries catch up, however, the utilities are toast.

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2 hours ago, SolarRoof said:

Once batteries catch up, however, the utilities are toast.

THAT is the key!  The question is, how long will that take?  A couple of years, or a decade plus?

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17 hours ago, SolarRoof said:

 As good as all this looks, changes to net metering and incentives could change everything in the future.  Once batteries catch up, however, the utilities are toast.

I don't know how much you drive, but you may consider getting a lightly used EV & upping your array.  The EV can soak up extra electricity for summer driving, and also provide electricity for the house.  Not sure if any EVs actually do this however. 

Also not sure how the economics work out, I've just read that 2nd hand EVs can be a good deal.

In the future I think the EV can serve as a buffer battery for the house.  However, Tesla has said they don't support this & probably won't in the future either.

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I drive a Tesla.  Scenario above does not really work as I rarely make more power than I use, and what I do goes back to the grid at market rates since I'm grandfathered in.  The Tesla charges between midnight and 6 am when my utility has special rates for EV owners.  (Above conversation is about my office building, however I have a large PV system at my house as well.)

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I looked over last week's CreditSuisse "renewable roundtable" newsletter.  Some info re: PTC & ITC in there:

Return of the Camp. Reports out of D.C. this week suggest that David Camp's 2014 tax reform proposal may resurface as one of several alternatives to Speaker Ryan's plan as the Trump administration tries to move forward on tax reform. Camp's 2014 proposal include a 25% corporate tax rate, and the reduction or elimination of many tax credits. At the time, credit reductions included lowering the PTC to $15/MWh (from $23) by eliminating the inflation adjustment, and eliminations included the ITC at its then-scheduled 2016 stepdown date. Times, however, have changed. These days the PTC is scheduled to linearly decline from $23/MWh in 2016 to $9/MWh in 2019, and ITC will sunset in three years.

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