China polysilicon is making a move up

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cfeng

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Wednesday, July 3rd 2013, 5:00am

China polysilicon is making a move up

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-463.html

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cfeng

Unregistered

Wednesday, July 3rd 2013, 5:06am

06/26/2013 - For 5th Week In A Row Cell Prices Down, multi wafers up, Poly steady

http://pvinsights.com/

Cells suffer big drop, multi wafers up, poly steady

PV Grade Poly Silicon Price (9N / 9N+) 18.50 16.25 16.640 0 0%
2nd Grade Poly Silicon Price (6N - 8N) 17.50 14.50 16.580 0 0%
Unit: USD/Kg Last Update: 2013-07-03

156 mm Multi Solar Wafer 1.05 0.80 0.844 0.001 0.12%
156 mm High Eff Multi Solar Wafer 1.05 0.88 0.946 0.001 0.11%
156 mm Mono Solar Wafer 1.35 1.15 1.257 -0.005 -0.4%
125 mm Mono Solar Wafer 0.75 0.64 0.711 0 0%
Unit: USD more Last Update: 2013-07-03

Multi Cell Price Per Watt 0.51 0.35 0.404 -0.005 -1.22%
156 mm Multi Solar Cell 2.25 1.44 1.705 -0.025 -1.45%
156 mm Mono Solar Cell 2.70 1.88 2.284 -0.027 -1.17%
125 mm Mono Solar Cell 1.64 1.10 1.374 -0.017 -1.22%
Unit: USD more Last Update: 2013-07-03

Silicon Solar Module 0.99 0.58 0.723 -0.008 -1.09%
ThinFilm Solar Module 0.94 0.52 0.636 -0.008 -1.24%
Unit: USD / Watt more Last Update: 2013-07-03

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Uncle Chang

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Posts: 202

Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Stock Positions: TSL CSIQ HSOL SOL JKS YGE JASO Hanergy (0566.HK) GCL(3800.HK)

Thanks: 11

Wednesday, July 3rd 2013, 10:07am

China should impose Anti-dump duties on Importing Poly from USA immediately while they're negotiating with the EU.
There's no way to allow USA to export Poly in the low $13s for so long, a clear case of Dumping.
USA has imposed deadly duties on Chinese Solar, it is Unfair protectionism witnessed by the surging prices of USA solar stocks like SUNE, SPWR and FSLR.

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Uncle Chang

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Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Stock Positions: TSL CSIQ HSOL SOL JKS YGE JASO Hanergy (0566.HK) GCL(3800.HK)

Thanks: 11

Wednesday, July 3rd 2013, 10:55am

It is also so suspicious that imported Poly has been so cheap, in the low $13s, and the implied Si costs of most CN-11's poly are still high. I think they're still buying too much under negotiated contract prices.
China imported total of 32,303T of Poly last year from USA at average of $21.39/kg, with monthly price dropping from $26.31 in January to $16.39 in December, to the low $13s current month, they're only "allowed" to negotiate the prices down so much every month, I think it's good that SOL is starting their Poly plant, it's good for long-term when the Poly prices have nowhere to move But Up!
I'm not looking at trader's view, maybe dreamer's but it made me feel like Warren Buffett.

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littleguyintucson

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Wednesday, July 3rd 2013, 11:58am

Quoted from "Uncle Chang"

China imported total of 32,303T of Poly last year from USA at average of $21.39/kg,

In May alone they imported enough Poly for over 1GW of prodcution. They are on pace for importing some 60,000MT this year.

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/special/?id=443394
Latest Customs statistics show that in May of this year, imports of 5,859 tons of polysilicon

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Uncle Chang

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Posts: 202

Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Stock Positions: TSL CSIQ HSOL SOL JKS YGE JASO Hanergy (0566.HK) GCL(3800.HK)

Thanks: 11

Wednesday, July 3rd 2013, 12:31pm

Quoted from "littleguyintucson"

In May alone they imported enough Poly for over 1GW of prodcution. They are on pace for importing some 60,000MT this year.

CHina imported about 82,760MT last year, of which 72,481MT was from USA, S Korea and Germany, with their "pace" and even higher efficiency, you basically should agree SOL and GCL ramping up with production? Even DQ's CEO is getting so excited these days, hopefully they can buy enough time without running out of money.
Hey, nobody should get offended with the way I speak, I don't mean nothing since I'm still just back to my training wheels with more questions than answers at this moment.

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eysteinh

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Wednesday, July 3rd 2013, 1:24pm

Uncle chang the average of US price is so low because of sales of silicon powder and fines, not from regular polysilicon at solar or electronic grade. No solar grade simens chunks are bought at 13$/kg. And neither FBR solar grade granulars or electronic grade.

One example is Eging they bought fines and powder from REC. This was below FBR granulars costs and sale prices. If my estimates are correct based on the eging quarterly release they sold it at 8$/kg at long term contract from 2009 to 2015 with about 1500 MT a year.
http://www.egingpv.com/UserFiles/2012111…0537_2012_z.pdf
(page 79 and http://www.recgroup.com/view?feed=R/1365…810/1261173.xml )

Obviosuly if this stuff is included it will drag down the average in the statistics, and frankly the only way I ever see US having sold poly at so low prices.

This post has been edited 3 times, last edit by "eysteinh" (Jul 3rd 2013, 1:31pm)