SolarPVInvestor Forums

sorry...but to correct your misinformation once again, they were flat last week and down for many weeks prior, according to pvinsights...funny how quiet you were during all those weeks...lol. The only thing that has gone up every week has been module prices.

btw, look at your post from last week, where your headline is that poly "is steady"...that's a lot different than "up"...

Quoted from "cfeng"

Steady is not down. The only thing down for 3 weeks in a row were cells. On the other hand poly is higher today than 2 weeks ago and higher than last week while cells are going the opposite direction and are down 3 weeks straigh

For several years prices have tracked pretty darn close to pvisnights. Those that recognized this early avoided some of the carnage that occurred to others. The real gist is a re-adjustment or re-alignment of the price spreads between verticals. Nobody is making money on Poly at $16-$17 and most make no money at $18-$19. What is being made would be cash at $16-$17/kg, companies will generate cash for operations as cash costs are generally lower(even for LDK's over bloated poly plant)

Wafers are similar, companies are not profitable at $0.20 and $0.28. Poly/mono. Companies need $0.05 more for each.

Then there are cells, these are profitable t $0.41 for poly and $0.50+ for mono. For high quality mono they can get $0.57+ such as Jaso has had. This is a sweet spot for now as Companies can slap on $0.16 processing and make $0.05-$0.15. The upper end is massive profits like Jaso reported.

And last modules that we all know were selling for lower than costs is not sustainable. The ASP on that has risen from the low $0.60 avg to now $0.73 avg. At $0.60 this was not sustainable, at $0.70 for some companies this becomes borderline profitable. at $0.73 this is

If you profess to the sustainable business models, then several factors should occur.
1: Poly will rise off the $16-$17/kg and push towards $20-$25
2: Wafer ASP will rise back tot he $0.25 and $0.32 ranges poly and mono
3: Cell prices will climb slighty for poly and mono and high end cell will drop slightly
4: Module ASP should set in around $0.65-$0.70 for Poly and $0.75ish for mono.

The impact should be wafer costs will rise by $0.01-$0.02 for those not making their own Poly but the increase would drive them positively overall
Cell companies buying wafers should be impacted by $0.03-$0.04. Jaso can take that hit quite nicely
Module companies that are full vertical(wafer to module) should see gross climb to $0.10-$0.15
Partial verticals would see $0.07-$0.10 gross

add $0.02 for cash flow for each vertical segment.

If you recognize this as a must for a balanced system within the next 2 to 3 quarters for companies to return to something reminiscent of stable maybe not highly profitable, then these are given. Not all sectors move equally but they do track within a quarter or so.

Most company imply these directions with the exception of cells. Cells had an intentional jump for 2 reasons. Tawian and Japan. I expect the Japan impact to become less with competition. Most companies started suggesting cost increases might occur in some verticals they get upstream.

Most companies indicated rising Module prices, now it has climbed some 10%+
Most wafer companies have indicated that wafer price will climb. It has climbed off the lows by about $0.02 but not near the required prices
most cell prices after large runups are did a slight pull back.
Poly, up ever so slightly but not the move that is required.

If you believe these are trends that will occur, then investing in the companies that have not adjusted for this will be beneficial or in those that have low exposure risks to the movements.

Right now it is June, avg ASP of $0.73 most companies costs at $0.60+/-, that is one of the best spreads in a long time and is a spread that is breakeven for some.

Quoted from "nanofrogfish_spf"

sorry...but to correct your misinformation once again, they were flat last week and down for many weeks prior, according to pvinsights...funny how quiet you were during all those weeks...lol. The only thing that has gone up every week has been module prices.

btw, look at your post from last week, where your headline is that poly "is steady"...that's a lot different than "up"...

Btw, the other site shows poly is still down.

http://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html

Quoted from "cfeng"

http://pvinsights.com/
PV Grade Poly Silicon Price (9N / 9N+) 18.50 16.25 16.630 0.38 2.34%
2nd Grade Poly Silicon Price (6N - 8N) 17.50 14.50 16.550 0.4 2.48%
Unit: USD/Kg Last Update: 2013-06-19

Multi Cell Price Per Watt 0.52 0.35 0.410 -0.002 -0.49%
156 mm Multi Solar Cell 2.30 1.44 1.734 -0.008 -0.46%
156 mm Mono Solar Cell 2.75 1.88 2.319 -0.008 -0.34%
125 mm Mono Solar Cell 1.67 1.10 1.397 -0.006 -0.43%
Unit: USD more Last Update: 2013-06-19

Is Anti-Tariff on import Poly on the table for negotiation?
DQ has been Up and Up!
SOL is also Up!

http://www.pr-inside.com/pvinsights-sola…go-r3705434.htm

Sounds like May and July would be uncertain periods for shipping panels from China to EU, with 30-45 days sea shipment time.

We should see a large movement of modules in May and June. June should be extremely high.
I think May deliveries will be in the same way as April was, but June since the info was published on 4th could have a huge volume until mid month. I am curious how many containers could be shipped by train in an emergency situation? 3 weeks timeline can utilize July. I can see transport companies putting extra trains just to accommodate.
Certainly companies know a lot more what to expect than what we know.
Has anyone put a thought to names of 66 companies represented in the discussion by CCCME?
Who are they? I could not identify SOL or DQ among the list of members, but that does not mean it is not there, I just could not tell.

Quoted from "odyd12"

Has anyone put a thought to names of 66 companies represented in the discussion by CCCME?
Who are they? I could not identify SOL or DQ among the list of members, but that does not mean it is not there, I just could not tell.

I think SOL is there, but it was not as clear as for other Chinese tier1s.

http://www.cccme.org.cn/shop/cccme12615/introduction.aspx

DQ might not have bothered, but for big exporters the risk/reward for of being or not being a member should be clearly in favor of membership.

That is great news because that would be an issue what about Jinko? I also did not see this one.

Good point about Jinko. Did not find them either.

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl…FCN%2Ftyngf.htm

All Chi11, but DQ and Jinko looks covered.