odyd

Pattern Energy Group Inc. (PEGI)

198 posts in this topic

I read a bit of 10-K from Pattern. I think the average has been something like $62/MWh versus $80 in 2015. They have added around 600MW in 2015, and the PPAs were priced around 50% lower than in 2014. Wind projects sell energy at around $2 cents per kWh, which is crazy low, but if it allows producing $156M in CAFD running rate, it seems not too bad. They may also add solar projects to their portfolio.

Still one needs to watch very carefully every yieldco which is not associated with utilities.

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Like the company do not like the volatility already. Nothing is happening, and it goes from 18.72 to close at 18.07. No volume mind you.

 I think everyone is waiting for SUNE to call it quits and start shaking the tree. This Friday could be the day unless they file.

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8 hours ago, odyd said:

Like the company do not like the volatility already. Nothing is happening, and it goes from 18.72 to close at 18.07. No volume mind you.

 I think everyone is waiting for SUNE to call it quits and start shaking the tree. This Friday could be the day unless they file.

A volatile stock in a solid company is actually ideal for someone who like to trade holdings as there is a lot of trading reward at little holding risk. For just time regular buy (e.g. reinvesting dividends) and hold volatility is never welcomed though as it increases risk of bad buy timing.

 

 

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Reinvesting the dividend would make sense if the price was below the average cost. Otherwise, it does not make a lot of sense. Volatility is ok, as long as factors are visible for it. I see different behaviors among yieldcos and solar companies. It is hard to understand the drivers behind it. I think some are simply selling off as people use SUNE situation as the start of dark times, and they do not want to be part of it.

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26 minutes ago, odyd said:

Reinvesting the dividend would make sense if the price was below the average cost. Otherwise, it does not make a lot of sense. Volatility is ok, as long as factors are visible for it. I see different behaviors among yieldcos and solar companies. It is hard to understand the drivers behind it. I think some are simply selling off as people use SUNE situation as the start of dark times, and they do not want to be part of it.

Many yieldcos followed TERP down from mid last year. Same pattern, just not as deep as for TERP. I think SUNE's launch of TERP shed brought fuel to those saying the sponsor is praying on the limit partner in a ponzi scheme. The confidence in every yieldco was lost and now they are all volatile as investor confidence swing from a low level. They Toronto listed ones seems to have been a bit shielded though.

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Good move today, do not understand it but I like it. Hope for more. Still a lot of ups and dows.

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Streetinsider shows Guggenheim Starts PEGI at buy today, but I am not a member so can't see the details. I think they PEGI to their fund or funds and boosted the stock.

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IT appears that Canadian Bank is packaging debt issue based on 14 securities picked by Raymond James brokerage. one of those securities is PEGI, rated as a buy

this is a prospectus, this tells me that two relatively high profile organizations and one rather wealthy bank is trying to make money on PEGI

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947263/000089109216014101/e00021_424b2.htm

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