Solar Modules – General views
As expected, the start of a new year has ignited the European market. There was a significant increase in the global shipments for the whole Chinese Industry as a result. In general terms, while US-listed companies have increased their overall dispersion there were significant increases in shipments by Mainland companies not listed on American exchanges. The group dubbed as "others" did not see a significant increase from December, which could indicate that policies are moving small players away from global markets as part of consolidation. The shift does not have particular impact on any group's growth. At this time, demand seems to improve shipments for all participants.
During January, 54% of market share of exports belonged to US-listed companies. The top nine companies from Mainland China (not US-listed) delivered 374MW at the growth rate of 87%. The top three on the list were Chint at 78MW, Kyocera (Japan) at 62MW and BYD at 47MW. In comparison, during 2012, Chint had 26MW, Kyocera had 28MW, and BYD had 36MW. Interestingly, in comparison to 2012, some US-listed companies have a different dynamic. Yingli's deliveries were less than January 2012. China Sunergy has dropped its volume from year-over-year to 25%, and broke Suntech dropped from 83MW to 17MW.
In the case of Yingli, the drop is not serious yet, but could indicate a preference of the company to move to the domestic market. Suntech's position is a result of the status of the company, lack of bankability and loss of brand name. In the case of China Sunergy, the Turkey plant is a result of lower deliveries from the Mainland.
In a general view, the market is showing an increase of 20%. Most of the companies that reported already suggested a 40% increase in 2014, with the majority of the volume coming in the second part of the year. Therefore, January results are supportive to those statements.
The overall deliveries for January were a 38% increase month-over-month, and 19% year-over-year. US-listed Chinese more than 28% in growth month-over-month and some 19% in comparison to January 2013. The rest of China's named corporations in a report, delivered more than a 100% increase.
The "others" delivered 335MW in comparison to 295MW in December, which was a 13% increase.
In the continental analysis, based on a month-to-month comparison, data shows the following market gains: 47% increase in deliveries to Europe, 24% to North America, 43% to Asia, 25% to Australia, 37% to Africa and 41% to ROW. Year-over-year, North America increased to 270%, Asia 190% and Africa 13%. Europe remained down in size, having a decrease of 57% from a year ago.
The largest continental destinations were Asia, Europe and North America. Asia received 53% of all deliveries during January.
Top country destinations during January were Japan, reaching another monthly record; second was the US and third was the UK. Deliveries to the US grew by 25% month-over-month and 257% year-over-year. In the case of the UK, monthly increase was 16% and yearly was 119%. Japan month-to-month was 34%, and 210% year-over-year.
Considering that in the first half of 2013 Japan received 1.68GW of modules and the UK had 210MW, both countries are trending to have the best volumes' quarter ever. In the "top 10 countries" category, for the first time Taiwan took 10th place.
The highest percentile gains in the month-to-month category for countries with volumes over 10MW were India at 554%, Holland at 124%, and France at 244%.
Solar Cells – General views
Top destinations during January were South Korea at 60MW, Canada at 51MW and India at 33MW. Largest shippers during the month were JA, Motech (Taiwan) and Nicesun PV. The average price for JA cell during January was $0.396 per watt. This compares to $0.37 during December, showing a 7% increase in pricing.
In the case of Taiwan, December (a month later than the Chinese data) top destinations were China, Japan, and Germany at 324MW, 80MW and 72MW. Deliveries to the US were 3.5MW. It appears that prices in December remained at $0.40 average for China's markets. Overall, Taiwan shipped 677MW of cells during December and 57MW of modules in relation to 638MW of cells and 35MW of modules in November.
Wafers – General views
Wafer deliveries increased to 770MW during January from 672MW, or 15% month-over-month. Taiwan was the largest destination with 503MW, followed by Malaysia at 74MW and South Korea at 74MW. In comparison to December, Taiwan and South Korea had the largest volume increase.
Top companies in the sector were GCL-Poly, Longi, and Zhong Huan. Among the top three names, deliveries were 400MW. The top three names remain unchanged in comparison to December.
Average price for wafer from ReneSola was at $0.244. In December, the price was $0.24, suggesting a 1.6% increase. The biggest increase in wafer deliveries was Longi at 32% to 127MW from 96MW. The company specializes in mono wafers.
The largest exports of wafer from the US-listed were CSIQ (value combined with GCL due to JV) and LDK, followed by SOL. The delivered figures were 56MW, 53MW and 23MW.
CN7 –US listed General views
The only exception not seeing growth in delivery volume was JinkoSolar. Some companies saw a significant increase. The largest of these were ReneSola, Yingli and JA Solar. The most deliveries in the month were Yingli, Trina and Hanwha. What is attractive, JA Solar has delivered most modules during January 2014, the largest global monthly shipment on record for the company. Hanwha SolarOne also bested its own record, taking the third spot for the first time, and also delivered its largest portion of modules in one month.
Polysilicon Domestic and Imports
During January, 2,882MT were imported by US-listed companies in comparison to 3,056MT of polysilicon imported in December. The average price of imports for the US-listed was $19.96 versus $19.55, or a 2% increase. The largest importers were Yingli and ReneSola at 1,502MT and 602MT, respectively. The least amount of polysilicon was imported by Canadian Solar and Hanwha SolarOne at respectively. However, both companies at least doubled imports since December. JinkoSolar and Trina received lowest import prices during January. ReneSola paid highest 600MT. During January, China imported 7,470MT versus 8,545MT in December. Top sources were with the majority coming from Germany, South Korea and the US, same as December.
GADP Prices and Outlook
The GADP action is mixed in January. Some companies have increased GADP, with only Canadian Solar and Yingli continuing the trend of increase.
The most percentile improvement was recorded by JA Solar. It appears that price for JA modules has gone the most in the UK.
Interestingly, JA Solar also became the largest shipper to Japan, followed by Trina and Hanwha. Canadian, which dominated the Japanese market in 2013, had lower shipment during January. The shift also took place in the US. The largest shipper to the US in January was Canadian Solar, followed by Trina and Yingli. Canadian also has shipped most to India. Despite a generally poor ASP environment, the company received a relatively high price for its modules there. Canadian is absent from the UK, where YGE has the highest participation. UK policies have favored industrial-size plants and the UK is becoming a hot destination for solar deliveries in Europe.
Each Monthly CEDR (China Export Data Report) includes Excel format and PDF commentary. A complete detail of SPVI January Package:
- Module, cell and wafer Average Declaration Price (GADP) by country for US-listed companies
- Module, cells and wafer deliveries by country and company in MW
- Watt efficiency averages for selected US listed companies
- Imported polysilicon by volume including source country and a price
- December Taiwanese cell and module exports in MW by destination, including average price
- China weekly ASP for polysilicon, wafer, cell and module, during the month of February 2014
- Exclusive commentary in PDF format with charts and graphs including Q3 and Q4 data and details for 8 US-listed Chinese companies
