Chinese Export Data Report (CEDR) recorded 515MW of modules exported by JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ:JASO) during the fourth quarter 2014. In addition, the company shipped around 100MW to Pakistan, a part of OEM arrangements with TBEA. 62.3% of volume or 321MW were delivered to Asia. 30.5% or 157MW were delivered to Europe. North America represented 4.7% or 24.5MW.
The top destination was Japan at 308MW, UK followed with 129MW and Guatemala with 22MW. Fourth-quarter volume was the record for the company, as it was the case for Canadian Solar and JinkoSolar.
Global declared average price for JA Solar during the fourth quarter 2014 was around $0.64 per watt, a drop from $0.66 per watt during the third quarter.
The following commentary was published in February, reflecting on December 2014 data the last month of the quarter:
“Q4 Guidance: Unspecified for modules, total mix at 850-900MW
Q4 CEDR Final: 514.97W module, 44MW cell, 53M OEM
Overseas Estimate: 22.5MW South Africa
Total Global Estimate: 590.47MW module, 44MW cell
China Estimate: 220MW module 5MW cell.
811MW modules 50MW cell, 94% module mix expectation.
Around 60MW modules to own projects, not included.
Expectations: In December, JA had a relatively lower figure of deliveries than other months, at only 134MW. At the same time, over 514MW were delivered by the company for the full quarter. We add 53MW from TBEA to this volume, plus 22.5MW in South Africa. Overall expectation with 220MW sold in China is around 811MW. We expect a total of 50WM of cells to be shipped. Overall, we see 861MW with 94.1% of module penetration. There is a potential for reporting a positive volume surprise. We also do not include 60MW for its own project development. Due to module ratio improvement, gross margin should remain at least stable. CEDR Q4 deliveries are a record for the company.”
JA Solar reported fourth-quarter results on March 12th, 2014. Total module shipments were 879.6MW and cell shipments were 73.1MW. During the fourth quarter, the company provided shipment breakdown identifying 41% of overall shipments to China, 9.2% to Americas and 12.8% to Europe. This means China received 390MW, 87.6MW to Americas and 122MW to Europe.
We identified 44MW of cells delivered globally, and as mentioned 515MW of modules, which indicates total of 559MW delivered. Based on the company’s declaration for China, the residual is 562MW. While both numbers appear very close, in our estimate we considered 53MW from TBEA and additional volume from South Africa. The company beat our overall estimate by 100MW of products. The difference came from China, as our own estimate was only 225MW domestically.
For the Q1 we estimate 700MW of modules or 70% growth year-over-year. Deliveries to Japan and UK will dominate the company’s shipments in Q1. The high penetration of the mono modules should help the company with is ASP. We see limited movement on global declared prices for Q1 perhaps within one cent to two cents per watt reduction. We think that gross margins will remain close to fourth quarter gross margins.
