Monday, 30 March 2015 00:00

Trina Solar Limited (ADR)(NYSE: TSL) Fourth Quarter 2014 Post-Factum CEDR Analysis

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Trina Solar Limited (ADR)(NYSE: TSL) Fourth Quarter 2014 Post-Factum CEDR Analysis

CEDR indicated 48.14% of modules shipped to Asia and 36.14% to North America with Europe receiving 12.8%

Chinese Export Data Report (CEDR) recorded 587.3MW of modules exported by Trina Solar Limited (ADR)(NYSE: TSL) during the fourth quarter 2014. During the third quarter 2014, CEDR recorded 654.4MW of exports by the company. Fourth-quarter volume was a 66% increase in the year-over-year comparison.

CEDR indicated 48.14% of modules shipped to Asia and 36.14% to North America with Europe receiving 12.8%. Top country destinations during the fourth quarter were USA with 211.2MW, Japan at 182MW and India at 73MW. Trina was the second largest module exporter during the fourth quarter following Canadian Solar. During the third quarter, Trina held first place in exports.

Trina’s global average declared price (GADP) was at $0.58 per watt, two cents lower than GADP during the third quarter. Like Canadian, Trina sends modules to own subsidiaries. Therefore, their value reflects more cost of goods sold than the selling price per watt.

The following commentary was published in February, reflecting on December 2014 data the last month of the quarter:

“Q4 Guidance: 1,045-1,095MW inc. 40-60MW own projects,

Objective: 1,035MW top end expectation

Q4 CEDR Final: 587.3MW

Plant sales: 13.8MW UK

China Estimate: 433.8MW or 41.9% MW delivered. Q3 China portion was 37.6% (including projects)

Expectations: Slightly higher volume is needed from China to meet the guidance, but it is only 1.9% more than we expected in November. Sales of 433.8MW in China should be achievable. Gross margin should see the benefit from the sale of the plant in the UK, but small volume in comparison to the largest ever shipment expectation suggests margin to be flat at best. We suspect that net income should be improved due to the volume. The guided volume is the highest ever in the history of the company.”

Trina Solar reported fourth-quarter results on March 4th, 2015. Total module shipments were 1,098.8MW, with 1,070.5MW recognized in revenue. Trina’s shipments beat the guidance despite only 28.3MW shipped to own projects. Based on the company’s supplemental information, including the quarterly module shipment breakdown, China received 47.8% of the volume excluding volume destined for own projects. Module exports generating revenue during the quarter were 559MW. This compared to 587MW recorded by CEDR, CEDR has 95% capture factor. Based on the same declaration the US received 18.6% or 199MW, Japan 13.8% or 148MW.

During the first quarter 2015, Trina is expected to ship 840 to 870MW, including up to 70MW to own developments. During 2014, Trina has held 232MW of projects, including 22MW overseas and 210MW in China. Plans for development expect 700 to 800MW to be shipped to own projects and 3.7 to 4GW for sale to third parties during the fiscal year 2015. As reported recently company sold 49.9MW solar plant in UK to Bluefield Solar Income Fund, and it is expected to see the revenue recognition for the sale to be reported for the first quarter 2015.

Read 2126 times Last modified on Monday, 30 March 2015 21:14
Robert Dydo

Robert is the founder and CEO of SolarPVInvestor and SPVInvestor Research, Inc. His career spans more than 20 years in supply chain, managing and planning operations for distribution centers. An ardent private investor, Robert found his niche in contesting misinformation about solar in general, and the Chinese solar industry in particular, while using his finance education matched with a lifelong ardor for the stock market

SPVInvestor Research, Inc.is a Canadian incorporated research firm. We publish CEDR, the most complete, monthly report on exports of modules, cells, wafer from China, including focus on US-listed Chinese companies.