Jump to content


Dear Guest,
"SolarPVInvestor Forums" is a subscription based site, devoted to investors with an interest in major public solar companies trading on North American, as well as global exchanges. Discussion themes include all aspects of the industry with current news, technology, financials, and investment theses. 
Modern, well organized platform with many ways to extract information, "SolarPVInvestor Forums" is the most sophisticated community of solar investors in North America. Create account and request 24-hours trial package, to experience full access, it is free. 

for access after registration, send an e-mail to

 

 


Photo

Daily News May 2014


142 replies to this topic

#101 JulyWebb

JulyWebb

    中级会员

  • Premium Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 2,485 posts
  • Joined 26-February 13
  • LocationTexas
  • Holdings:HSOL, JASO, RGSE

Posted 07 May 2014 - 09:21 PM

China's Trade Unexpectedly Rises http://www.bloomberg...ar-earlier.html


  • 2

#102 sunnysky

sunnysky

    the MAGIC

  • Premium Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 2,604 posts
  • Joined 14-July 13
  • Holdings:CSIQ, DQ, HSOL, JASO, JKS, TSL

Posted 07 May 2014 - 09:30 PM

Thanks July. That's exactly what we need. Again, JASO seems to have the perfect timing for the ER release.


  • 0

#103 odyd

odyd

    管理员

  • Administrators
  • 7,136 posts
  • Joined 03-January 13
  • LocationAirdrie, Alberta
  • Holdings:TSL

Posted 07 May 2014 - 09:34 PM

Hi

I added views to reports, so you can understand a bit more what is in the PDF and excel file.

http://solarpvinvest...d-reports/intro


  • 0

#104 Pop2mollys

Pop2mollys

    师傅

  • Premium Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 2,736 posts
  • Joined 15-January 13
  • LocationErie, PA
  • Holdings:JASO

Posted 07 May 2014 - 10:00 PM

China's Trade Unexpectedly Rises http://www.bloomberg...ar-earlier.html


All I know is last couple of months the day weak export data was released solars got pummeled. Maybe a coincidence maybe not. Looks like export data drastically beat expectations which just got released, thanks July.
  • 0

#105 Paybak66

Paybak66

    中级会员

  • Premium Members
  • Pip
  • 393 posts
  • Joined 15-January 13
  • LocationWashington State, USA
  • Holdings:HSOL

Posted 07 May 2014 - 11:31 PM

Great article, July.

 

Thanks for posting it.


  • 0

#106 explo

explo

    师傅

  • Premium Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,342 posts
  • Joined 29-September 12
  • LocationEurope
  • Holdings:JASO

Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:54 AM

They expected 3% drop and in reality China increased 0.9%. This just shows that big boys moving markets either are stupid or act it. Billions have been lost because they cannot adjust properly for Chinese New Year timings, data distortions and currency differences between same period this and last year. Maybe big boys should think twice and be a bit more thorough to adjust numbers to consider distortions to see reality instead of distortions before they move the world's financial markets. Oh well us simple retail investors who saw the real world better than the best of WS have loaded up already. Double whammy on China export numbers and CN solars today led by an indicative JASO crush of expectations.
  • 1

#107 eysteinh

eysteinh

    职业选手

  • Premium Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 2,324 posts
  • Joined 09-December 12
  • Holdings:JKS

Posted 08 May 2014 - 04:03 AM

Seekingalpha seem to have JASO result before JASO even report it on main page....

 

http://seekingalpha....er-2014-results

 

"

  • Net income was RMB 85.0 million ($13.7 million), compared with a net income of RMB 139.5 million ($22.4 million) in the fourth quarter of 2013. Earnings per diluted ADS were RMB 1.41 ($0.23), compared with a profit per diluted ADS of RMB 1.92 ($0.31) in the fourth quarter of 2013
  • Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter were RMB 1.9 billion ($313.4 million), compared with RMB 2.1 billion ($341.0 million) at the end of the fourth quarter of 2013
  • Operating cash flow was positive RMB 198.2 million ($31.9 million), compared with positive RMB 366.1 million ($58.9 million) in the fourth quarter of 2013
  • Non-GAAP net earnings1 attributable to the Company's ordinary shareholders were RMB 116.2 million ($18.7 million), compared to a non-GAAP net earnings attributable to the Company's ordinary shareholders of RMB 55.1 million ($8.9 million) in the fourth quarter of 2013
  • Non-GAAP earnings per diluted ADS in the first quarter of 2014 were RMB 1.99 ($0.32), compared to Non-GAAP loss per diluted ADS of RMB 0.94 ($0.15) in the fourth quarter of 2013"
     

Comment in range of my range of 0.15-0.25. 

 

Outlook looks great as well. Good stuff. 


  • 0

#108 SolarRoof

SolarRoof

    新手上路

  • Premium Members
  • Pip
  • 160 posts
  • Joined 13-July 13
  • Holdings:CSIQ, HSOL, JASO, JKS, SOL, TSL, RGSE

Posted 08 May 2014 - 09:10 AM

Article about small cap techs losing popularity in general...  Appears that the solars cannot separate themselves, even with profits and positive news.  Investors Shifting From Solar Stocks: Yingli Green Energy Hold. Co. Ltd. (ADR) (YGE), Trina Solar Limited (ADR) (TSL), ReneSola Ltd. (ADR) (SOL), JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (JASO)
by Mena Callahan / May 8, 2014

 

http://www.marketsem...td-jaso/178043/


  • 0

#109 Xeloris

Xeloris

    新手上路

  • Premium Members
  • PipPip
  • 1,066 posts
  • Joined 31-May 13
  • LocationJacksonville, Florida
  • Holdings:JASO, JKS, TSL

Posted 08 May 2014 - 09:29 AM

Anyone hear of any news on the obama announcement about solar initives that was suppose to be announced 'later this week'


  • 0

#110 eysteinh

eysteinh

    职业选手

  • Premium Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 2,324 posts
  • Joined 09-December 12
  • Holdings:JKS

Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:00 PM

Jaso transcript out:
http://seekingalpha....ipt?part=single


  • 0

#111 Pop2mollys

Pop2mollys

    师傅

  • Premium Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 2,736 posts
  • Joined 15-January 13
  • LocationErie, PA
  • Holdings:JASO

Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:07 PM

Jaso transcript out:
http://seekingalpha....ipt?part=single


Every single analyst congratulated them on a good or great Q. Probably expect some blush comments from a firm tomorrow...
  • 0

#112 eysteinh

eysteinh

    职业选手

  • Premium Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 2,324 posts
  • Joined 09-December 12
  • Holdings:JKS

Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:16 PM

I talked about impressive tech. Here is the numbers:

In the 60-cell format, level of PERCIUM modules can reach 285 watt output and full square PERCIUM modules can reach as high as 290 watts. The level of output is 15 watts to 20 watts higher than conventional modules.

RECIUM modules in the 60-cell format can reach 270 watts, also 10 watts to 15 watts higher than comparable conventional modules. PERCIUM and RECIUM cells and modules should go into mass production sometime in the second half of this year.

 

(Source: http://seekingalpha....ipt?part=single )


  • 0

#113 JulyWebb

JulyWebb

    中级会员

  • Premium Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 2,485 posts
  • Joined 26-February 13
  • LocationTexas
  • Holdings:HSOL, JASO, RGSE

Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:18 PM

I see this is where the Investor Conference will be by invitation only I also saw CSIQ will be there.

JA Solar will be attending beginning May 12'th, Monday. http://conferences.d...as/cleantech14/


  • 0

#114 odyd

odyd

    管理员

  • Administrators
  • 7,136 posts
  • Joined 03-January 13
  • LocationAirdrie, Alberta
  • Holdings:TSL

Posted 08 May 2014 - 09:48 PM

GCL reports its numbers on May 15th


  • 0

#115 eysteinh

eysteinh

    职业选手

  • Premium Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 2,324 posts
  • Joined 09-December 12
  • Holdings:JKS

Posted 09 May 2014 - 02:04 AM

From pv-magazine issue 5 (may issue) out today, page 20: IHS Stefen de Haan told Pv magzine that China's pv market demand had increased since middle of march. Encouraging words. Same page GTM researched Jade Jones claims Chinese manufacturers are already quoting prices above 0.8$/watt in US up from 0.7$/watt end of 2013.


  • 0

#116 nanofrogfish_spf

nanofrogfish_spf

    职业选手

  • Premium Members
  • Pip
  • 720 posts
  • Joined 08-November 12
  • LocationOhio USA
  • Holdings:CSIQ

Posted 09 May 2014 - 03:44 AM

This just shows that big boys moving markets either are stupid or act it.

 

How come when it's CSIQ, there's some fundamental or valuation reason, but when it's whatever stock you happen to own at the time, it's "the stupid big boys"?

 

Someone had it right earlier...small caps are under tremendous pressure...and solars are about as small cap as they come.  Computers are not logical or fundamental, and many times they control the trading, generating fear and more selling. The return to fundamentals will eventually happen...sometimes it can seemingly be a painfully long wait. But it will come.  And CSIQ, and JASO, and JKS etc. will all get back to where they should be when those fundamentals start to matter again. They just need to continue to execute on their business plans and ride the huge solar wave that's continuing to grow bigger and stronger. So now is a good time to take advantage of the situation, imho.


  • 1

#117 explo

explo

    师傅

  • Premium Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,342 posts
  • Joined 29-September 12
  • LocationEurope
  • Holdings:JASO

Posted 09 May 2014 - 04:08 AM

'explo', on 08 May 2014 - 09:54 AM, said:snapback.png

This just shows that big boys moving markets either are stupid or act it.

 

How come when it's CSIQ, there's some fundamental or valuation reason, but when it's whatever stock you happen to own at the time, it's "the stupid big boys"?

 

This was not about individual stocks, but WS selling of Chinese ADRs because they read the data wrong intentionally or unintentionally (i.e. due to being too stupid to realize how to read it correctly).

 

Regarding JASO vs CSIQ or other CN2/CN3. Like I've said many times I'm not in JASO based on value. I'm there based on price. In case the street decides to punish our CN solar stocks for the great 2013 rewards JASO is not a good target as they forgot to revive it during the 2013 valuation correction (JASO is still below $2 pre the recent reverse split to put it into 2010 price perspective). Still being priced 40% below equity there's nothing to punish. To realize the pricing difference  40% below equity for CSIQ is a PPS of $3.50 for example. So I'm not saying JASO is better than CSIQ, I'm saying its stock is deader at $9 than CSIQ's was at $40+ so WS has nothing to kill there. I rode JKS up from $2 to $20+ and in a measure to avoid risk of giving these gains back I moved them to the only remaining dead stock (of the 4 I considered investable companies). I don't think JASO company is better than Jinko company, but still moved the money based on stock pricing.

 

On January 23 as an example CSIQ closed at $41.08 and JASO closed at $9.31. This illustrate that my thesis that JASO would be harder to beat up than CSIQ seem right so far. Sometimes in JASO trading you can also see blocks of half a million ADS showing up on the buy side for JASO when it goes down to mid to low 9's. There's been more of a floor for them that the street haven't been able to beat them through.


  • 0

#118 eysteinh

eysteinh

    职业选手

  • Premium Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 2,324 posts
  • Joined 09-December 12
  • Holdings:JKS

Posted 09 May 2014 - 04:12 AM

Explo it has been a good move for you as the last 3 months jaso is up like 3% while jks is down like 9.3%. And even more pronounced if you have a closer time scale.  Ofcourse as an owner of JKS I feel this is unfair because market cant seem to calculate EPS for JKS even if they got the report right in front of theyre eyes, but I will give you that jaso is indeed low value at current mcap as well.  CSIQ I feel you just have to have patience, now the law suits that I where worried about is getting done with and this LDK mess and others can be cleared I feel CSIQ can do very well. I cant wait for the news stream of projects finished to start. Thats going to be good times for the whole sector as CSIQ generate news after news on sales.


  • 0

#119 eysteinh

eysteinh

    职业选手

  • Premium Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 2,324 posts
  • Joined 09-December 12
  • Holdings:JKS

Posted 09 May 2014 - 04:24 AM

Another JKS shipment to US. 35 MW finshed by Q4 2014. I am starting to think a tariff would be no big deal for JKS and I think after deducing tariff costs from ASP JKS still ends on high end around 0.64$/watt. (from 0.8$/watt asp before including tariffs) 

 

http://phx.corporate...9280&highlight=

 

Just to shed some more light about the 0.8$+ quotes and what gtm sees:

This is from Shyam Mehta  the lead analyst at GTM solar. 

cc - I agree with you that prices were and would continue going up regardless of whether SolarWorld's new petition had been initiated or not, purely due to supply-demand. Pricing has already gone up 1-3c/W from EOY 2013 due to increases in TW cell pricing. Since most TW cell players don't have internal wafering, H2 poly and wafer price increases would probably push TW cell pricing up even further, sum result being T1-Chinese delivered pricing in the mid-to-high 70s (which is where our low case comes from).

But the 80c/W in our base case is based on what T1 Chinese players are quoting for H2 delivery right now, from conversations with multiple parties on both sides, and that is being influenced by the trade case. The firms that are quoting these prices are planning to ship in all-Chinese product and eat the existing cell tariff. With costs coming down to low 50s, it is feasible for them to make a decent profit while still paying a ~35% tariff.

 

Source: http://www.greentech...percent-in-2014


  • 0

#120 odyd

odyd

    管理员

  • Administrators
  • 7,136 posts
  • Joined 03-January 13
  • LocationAirdrie, Alberta
  • Holdings:TSL

Posted 09 May 2014 - 04:51 AM

JKS announcements confirm the US is becoming major destination of choice for Q2. I think that Japan will drop in volume while the US increases those volumes, between two having a figure representing volumes in Q1. A lot of emerging markets will also play a role. Europe should give a pick up there as well.

The real issue is export control. "No-name" Chinese companies are running a big volume business as a group, now, also to Japan.

One must conclude that the governments of provinces and the central one, which controls exports is not concerned with output allowing consolidation efforts to take a shape of healthy business competition.

I am assuming there are about 100 active module makers in China today, and that is an improvement but, in general terms they play a considerable role in exports. 

As a selfish US-listed company investor, I would like to understand why so much output is allowed for that segment? Wouldn't this be better if the quality, perhaps both Mainland and the US-listed dominated the exporting landscape?

Is it the desire of free economy conflicts with regulated country view, which is preventing greater intervention or simply demand is enough to keep US-listed from drop in utilization levels thus, not seeing a point of rasing an issue?


  • 0