285 replies to this topic

[odyd]

Energy security, does not limit access to sun. Cheap tools to gather this energy like panels should be not a problem. If it is so important, just in case Chinese will refuse to sell panels after day take over the world, someone can produce expensive panels for the purpose of national security in the US. Since Chinese all want to do is sell cheap panels, what is the problem?

[eysteinh]

Oh I agree but that would be the argument used. Its not like you need to replace modules every year.

[abcdefgjoho]

i see no problem. all i am trying is finding explanations why we have this global trade disaster on solar panels only. we should have it for 100 industries if the problem is cheap production from china. but no. we have it for solar and poly and wine i recall...

 

so is this just bad luck or is there more behind it. i think there is nothing behind it which is fundamentally justified but some people make this a tariff case for absurd reasons. maybe the utility thing is more likely - at least in the EU i would guess

[odyd]

I think that you can make t-shirts anywhere and it is a simple job. To make a panel cheap and have the best one in the world, this is what makes Chinese unique. Monopoly by China on a global scale in one industry of the future makes many politicians in the US upset. It is political action not economic. Indians just want to benefit own country, but do not have proper infrastructure and capital.

[explo]

Abc, does the fact that Quatar saved SolarWorld give any clue?

Who's triggering the clean energy trade wars to get barriers raised for this otherwise fast cost cutting source of energy? Local employment and dumping is an argument presented to a judge, but is it a reason when the segments of the local industry negatively impacted by superior foreign competitors is the minority and the majority segments of local industry gain on free trade? Or is the negative impact on other industies the hidden reason?

A good thing is that the CN solars do not need to have their products imported to the biggest PV market in the world. So any barriers on cell and panel imports potentially raised in that market in the future will only benefit CN solars as China ramp up its efforts to clean up its energy supply.

[sunnysky]

Price trend update by EnergyTrend

 

Wafer price is seen to stabilize or even firm up. This is because China demand is warming up, export to Japan keeps at a high level, and European economy is improving. 

 

Cell efficiency is gradually improving and product upgrade to 17.6% cutoff will be completed in Q2. As a result, price of high efficiency poly cells will stay above $1.0/piece. If rooftop demand grows more than expected, the price is seen to increase but unlikely to exceed $1.05/piece. Mono cell pricing is relatively stable and expected to stay between $1.2 and $1.25 a piece. 

 

Module price fell by 0.65% to $0.614 this week. One factor cited is China accelerated export to US. since the impact from the US tariff case will now be in the second half. 

 

http://guangfu.bjx.c...15/511073.shtml

[sunnysky]

Two days old but this is very good news. Italy market is picking up again. This time it's FiT free.

 

Italian PV plant owners ‘tearing up existing FiT contracts’

http://www.pv-tech.o...g_fit_contracts

 

 

He said that analysts were expecting around 1GW to be installed this year with some of this already online. Senatore said based on the figures he had heard, it was expected that 300-400MW of subsidy free solar would be installed in the country this year after the current support scheme, Conto Energia V, closes at the end of the May.

...

 

Senatore said while he didn’t anticipate that the market would reach the heights of 2011, it was still able to function in a sustainable way in the future.

[Pop2mollys]

Damage control for HSOL... Just released

"Hanwha SolarOne Completes One of China's Largest Distributed Generation Projects to Date Totaling 31 MW"


http://online.wsj.co...515-900590.html

[explo]

Two days old but this is very good news. Italy market is picking up again. This time it's FiT free.
 
Italian PV plant owners ‘tearing up existing FiT contracts’
http://www.pv-tech.o...g_fit_contracts

Yes a big subsidy free market will make even more realize that solar is leading an energy revolution.

[sunnysky]

 

Damage control for HSOL... Just released

"Hanwha SolarOne Completes One of China's Largest Distributed Generation Projects to Date Totaling 31 MW"


http://online.wsj.co...515-900590.html

 

 

I was actually thinking they should have at least shipped some modules for their projects in Q1 but wasn't expecting they complete some this quickly. For a DG project at this size, and taking into account them being a late comer in the project space as well, I think it's quite impressive. 

[explo]

I was actually thinking they should have at least shipped some modules for their projects in Q1 but wasn't expecting they complete some this quickly. For a DG project at this size, and taking into account them being a late comer in the project space as well, I think it's quite impressive.

Yes 31 MW is massive. Considering Italy projects work without subsidy I think commercial/industrial rooftop DG projects in China can be massive once it takes off.

[sunnysky]

Yes a big subsidy free market will make even more realize that solar is leading an energy revolution.

 

More places will have no need for subsidies as the total system cost keeps going down and the cost of conventional generation rises.  I'm curious what the landscape becomes in a few years.

[sunnysky]

And we need to hear some good news about projects from CSIQ and JKS. I think we will hear some great news. In particular, it looks like JKS is doing well in that area in China. If things go well, I think they can finish 500 MW this year.

[explo]

Regarding conspiracy theories on who's backing SW's duping of politicians here's PV-tech's comment in video format: http://www.pv-tech.o..._subsidy_238756

[odyd]

Interesting from IHS

http://solarpvinvest...company-in-2014

[JulyWebb]

I was actually thinking they should have at least shipped some modules for their projects in Q1 but wasn't expecting they complete some this quickly. For a DG project at this size, and taking into account them being a late comer in the project space as well, I think it's quite impressive. 

 

I think we're going to like that new CEO. I know this project was started before him, he has an awesome track record seems to be a good PR person too.

[spiritcraft]

Interesting from IHS

http://solarpvinvest...company-in-2014

 

Global PV project pipeline at 140 GW and growing

[abcdefgjoho]

thanks explo, odyd. interestint points. still obvious that solar is the main target. i think the revenue and profit in the computer and chip industry is several fold higher - but still we dont see that stuff happening there. most parts are solely coming from asia nowadays. so similar situation really. not much production in many segments in europe or US at all.

 

if you see the large opposition against solar you normally come to the conclusion that this is really the big thing of the future.

just thinking about germany. we have 3-4 large utilities. i think 2-3 are in dax 30. they have alot of old plants and now a bill for 100+ years to get rid of their nuclear crap. they are therefor in a bad cost situation going forward. new entrants with a mix of solar, wind, gas and coal will be more competitive - especially with solar getting cheaper permanently.

 

if they have the money to build their own grid - then the last pillar of the old utilities is gone. maybe they are gone in 10-20 years.

that is maybe why the change is slowed down - by these dumping things. to keep those comp. just speculating but something has begun which cant be stopped it seems - remember the may data i gave -50% of daily german energy needs covered by wind and solar.

[explo]

Interesting from IHS

http://solarpvinvest...company-in-2014

 

Interesting. TBEA focusing on poly production in Xinjiang and downstream in China could be an interesting player. Looks like it is bigger on downstream than GCL.

[explo]

Abc, I think the forces interested in killing solar before it becomes unstoppable are working this intensely with anti-dumping trade law tools now because of two reasons:

 

1. Majority of solar supply comes from China making it easy to concentrate forces on a single target

2. Until 2016 China does not have MES (Market Economy Status) and can thus easily be convicted of dumping simply by accusation according to construct of current trade laws

 

This means that just as solar goes grid parity there's a short legal window to block the major supply source and push back solar a couple of years (still futile attempt but at least buys some time for the opponents). This has caused the crazy set of unwarranted trade cases against China in the solar supply-chain.