285 replies to this topic

[odyd]

GCL poly Q1 announcement

http://gcl-poly.toda...01917816_en.pdf

12GW wafer cap

 

presentation here

http://gcl-poly.toda...19124417_en.pdf

[odyd]

It is clear that HSOL paid at least one cent more for the wafer from GCL. Poly and wafer cost increased in Q1. I expect the same for CSIQ tomorrow, we already know their GM, but this is one of factors on manufacturing level

[explo]

It is clear that HSOL paid at least one cent more for the wafer from GCL. Poly and wafer cost increased in Q1. I expect the same for CSIQ tomorrow, we already know their GM, but this is one of factors on manufacturing level

 

Steep price increase from GCL (not exactly spot strategy so these are contract price changes). I'll be very curious about if CSIQ promise of fixed wafer pricing holds now that GCL is significantly increasing prices above the $0.20 fix price target for CSIQ for the first time (basically changing them along with market as has been my thesis all along). I'm still positive about GCL wafer customers for two reasons. GCL will expand to keep wafer market prices low and will offer some discount to market prices (but not fixed pricing that CSIQ have claimed IMHO). Assuming wafer market price exposure for CSIQ and with 90% wafer outsourcing they would be one of the most exposed CN11s together with CSUN against the Q1 wafer price hike. Others will however have their in-house wafer cost go up due to higher polysilicon prices so CSIQ is not really losing anything relative to semi/fully wafer integrated peers like TSL and JKS here, but not gaining (as claimed) either I suspect.

[odyd]

Not losing much but paying for profit GCL will take. I do not think this is a big issue but thinking now that TSL is hitting 18 to 19% which is higher than Q4 and seeing HSOL dropping GM significantly from Q4 (when removing charges it was as TSL's) shows that TSL is managing its ASP better in Q1 and probably its lower volume is a result of keeping profitability. How much of efficiency and other improvements under TSL's processing supports this GM is unknown to me, but I hope it is more permanent for incoming quarters.  The instability of GM will be again viewed as weakness. HSOL paid dearly for it, despite massive improvement for Q2.

On the PR level, HSOL should have released today's news yesterday, before PR and talk about this during cc. This tells me they have no idea how to sell themselves to the investment community. Perhaps I should correct, have the desire to do so effectively.

[uchsteve]

Not sure if this was posted, but a more positive take on China distributed solar potential ...

 

PV Guangzhou 2014 to help further promote distributed photovoltaic

 

"In China, difficulties in this field are being overcome at an accelerating speed. Once China's distributed PV market comes into existence, our installed PV capacity will take up more than 50% of the world's total amount."

 

http://www.altenergy...tovoltaic/33407

[uchsteve]

Georgia Power to Build 90 Megawatts of Army Solar Plants

 

They are part of the company’s plan to have almost 900 megawatts of solar power by 2016, with more than 500 new projects. The army, one of Georgia Power’s largest energy consumers, is developing the projects through the U.S. Army Energy Initiatives Task Force.

 

http://www.bloomberg...lar-plants.html

[uchsteve]

Climate Change to Hit Sovereign Creditworthiness: S&P

 

Global warming will harm sovereign creditworthiness around the world this century, with poorer nations the worst hit, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said.

 

http://www.bloomberg...hiness-s-p.html

[JulyWebb]

Simple to Understand Solar Facts. Currently it's estimated this year to increase 41% from 2013 37 GW. 2014 Figures are said to be revised again in June for Year 2013.http://solarcellcent...rkets_page.html

[Scsnospam]

Sunrun Inc. raises $150 million in equity

http://www.marketwat...ome_latest_news

 

"The solar industry is "still in the first inning of a decades-long" growth story, Sunrun CEO Lynn Jurich said in a statement.'

 

Big money believes in solar.

[Pop2mollys]

Looks like Deutsche put a negative note out according to SA causing sell off...

http://m.seekingalpha.com/news/1754583

[singular]

Looks like Deutsche put a negative note out according to SA causing sell off...

http://m.seekingalpha.com/news/1754583

 

Absolutely stupid.  Who cares about Q1 Chinese demand? Q1 is half done; they should be focusing on forward. Just using it as an excuse to sell of.

[Pop2mollys]

Absolutely stupid. Who cares about Q1 Chinese demand? Q1 is half done; they should be focusing on forward. Just using it as an excuse to sell of.

Agree and and Q2 is half down and according to several solars china market is heating up by end of May...

[singular]

Agree and and Q2 is half down and according to several solars china market is heating up by end of May...

 

Oops, that's what i meant, Q2 is half done.

[pgo]

http://www.technolog...source=facebook

 

Some heavy words of warnings to the world.

 

 

One of the biggest factors is how long it takes to start reducing emissions. In 2012, the IEA estimate for the cost of switching to low-carbon energy was only $36 trillion, $8 trillion less than the current estimate. The increase is largely because in the intervening time, emission rates have increased and greenhouse-gas levels in the atmosphere have risen, making the problem harder to solve. The IPCC report showed that continuing to  hold off on reducing emissions could increase costs by 40 percent if the delay leaves emissions 50 percent higher in 2030 than they are in ideal scenarios.

[greensolar]

Jim Chanos turns his eye to Australia

 

one of his shorts is coal

http://www.smh.com.a...0516-38ec3.html

[greensolar]

UK fossil fuel supply 'will run out in five years'

http://www.itv.com/n...-in-five-years/

[greensolar]

Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei cut coal consumption

http://www.wantchina...000008&cid=1105

[greensolar]

Chile is set to become the fist South American country to start charging those who produce more greenhouse gases with a new carbon tax.    

http://www.ilovechil...rbon-tax/110317

[sunnysky]

Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei cut coal consumption

http://www.wantchina...000008&cid=1105

 

 

 

I guess this is over 30 GW rooftop potential.

 

 

Hebei alone has 49 industrial zones to relocate plants transferred from Beijing and Tianjin. These zones have absorbed more than 2,300 enterprises and covered a roofed area of 450 million cubic meters. If all installed photovoltaic (PV) power stations, it would generate nearly 40 billion kilowatt hours (kwh) of electricity each year and save almost 15 million tonnes of coal.

 

"This is the figure for Hebei alone. The whole region including Beijing and Tianjin has even greater potential," he said, estimating that cost of a PV power generation station would be recovered within seven years if the government provided subsidies.

[griffzinho]

China Targets 70 Gigawatts of Solar Power to Cut Coal Reliance

http://www.bloomberg...l-reliance.html