276 replies to this topic

[BIPV Investor]

In the end it is all about demand and supply, and there is a lot of demand for solar panels. 

 

Not sure about this statement. In the long run there will be lots of demand for solar panels, but over the past five months it has been one case of slow demand after another (with several exceptions of Japan, US and UK). Read Energy Trend or PVInsights today, both talk of slow demand in China and Japan with a continued decline in ASP. The EU remains the current mystery box a it was reported that in Germany modules were selling at  0.8 $/watt. This isn't due to massive demand, but that shipments to EU have come to a grinding halt due to price undertaking renegotiations.

 

Similarly, I would not bet much on high US ASP as data suggests that the easiest way to place product in the US is to undercut others ASP.

[eysteinh]

So if demand in the long run is going to do well and I know my company is going to deliver in q1 why worry? I bought shares in this company exactly to be protected from this situation. Anyhow q report is here soon so the path onwards will be more clear for jks. I do agree that undercutting could help in us but not all can take the tariff at current levels (0.8$/watt) so again having a great cost position means allowing you to take risk of a 30% tariff. (and im fully aware that tariff is higher than this but that is before deducting vat and other items that can be deducted to reduce a tariff cost.) So when I expect asps of 0.6 in q1 down from 0.63 in q4 i sleep pretty confident given the fact they can have helped this situation if asp in usa is anything higher than this, and with fit and retainage as well to help the gm. On a custom ofcourse they will declare a low product value as possible so should be interesting to see if there will be a big gap between reported cost to custom and actual asp to customer due to agreement to shoulder any tariff cost. 

[sunnysky]

The question is that have we reached the bottom for this cycle and do you believe China demand is picking up along with ASP?

[BIPV Investor]

I think in terms of slow demand, yes we are almost at a bottom. I think for the overall stock market we are nearly at a top, and solar will follow the market, not make its own path even if demand starts to pick up. Solar names can lose 20-30% in a hurry if the market turns.

[eysteinh]

The question is that have we reached the bottom for this cycle and do you believe China demand is picking up along with ASP?

This is the question. Anyone who have any insight into china marked believes it will pick up is my general impression. Ofcourse we never know. ASP on the other hand i expect every year to reduce and am just positive suprised if it increases. When it comes to stock market im fairly confident if a company did 2 eps last year and does 4 eps this year with outlook for more next year it will not have peaked at current value if it has a low P/E. But in general sure you cannot just buy any solar stock and get a proft now, you have to understand whats going on.

[sunnysky]

India said to find SunPower, other U.S., Chinese panel makers dumped solar products onto market

http://www.mercuryne...er-u-s-chinese?

 

Interesting that everyone is finding everyone else dumping. Is it strange that I find this might be in fact helpful since people would realize the craziness of all these existing or lingering cases, and thus work together for a global solution?

 

More details on the case:

http://www.renewable...-dumped-panels?

 

 

The ministry has until May 22 to decide whether to impose duties before the case expires. Any tariffs it proposes could take six months to implement and may be scrapped by a new government, said Bridge to India’s Rustagi.

 

Results in national elections will be announced in two days. Narendra Modi, the frontrunner who pioneered India’s first incentives for large-scale solar power, has called for a clean- energy revolution during the campaign.

[eysteinh]

Recent dumping news if ending in tariff would probably be positive for recsol who produce in Singapore and has relatively high market share in both India and Australia. 

[JulyWebb]

Opponents to the tariffs say India Solar Manufacturers are not with in the WTO Rules

Opponents including China Sunergy Co., Canadian Solar Inc., JA Solar Holdings Co. cited World Trade Organization rules, which say an anti-dumping probe can’t be initiated if the producers supporting the application account for less than 25 percent of national production. Indosolar, Websol and Jupiter account for just 12 percent of production, according to the opponents’ submissions.

[eysteinh]

That is true julywebb. I remember that from one of my law classes, there has to be a certain minimum number of producers who want the tariff or it will be repelled in wto. Granted that would take time so might be what India is betting on. Usually the WTO just gives a reprimand and then the country has to change the law, and that takes time. Sometimes countries deliberately deems the cost of reprimand from wto to be less than cost of not implementing tariffs for a year or two and go ahead well knowing the wto reprimand will be there a year later. 

[JulyWebb]

That is true julywebb. I remember that from one of my law classes, there has to be a certain minimum number of producers who want the tariff or it will be repelled in wto. Granted that would take time so might be what India is betting on. Usually the WTO just gives a reprimand and then the country has to change the law, and that takes time. Sometimes countries deliberately deems the cost of reprimand from wto to be less than cost of not implementing tariffs for a year or two and go ahead well knowing the wto reprimand will be there a year later. 

 

Interesting 

[eysteinh]

Granted I should probably find the actual article saying this instead of just remembering it from one of my classes 2 years ago But I am sure we can dig this up if we wanted to figure it out. (Probably there will be articles about this as there is so few producers demanding this tariff.) 

[eysteinh]

There we go from the 1994 GAAP article VI nr 5.4:

 

5.4        An investigation shall not be initiated pursuant to paragraph 1 unless the authorities have determined, on the basis of an examination of the degree of support for, or opposition to, the application expressed(13) by domestic producers of the like product, that the application has been made by or on behalf of the domestic industry.(14) The application shall be considered to have been made “by or on behalf of the domestic industry” if it is supported by those domestic producers whose collective output constitutes more than 50 per cent of the total production of the like product produced by that portion of the domestic industry expressing either support for or opposition to the application.  However, no investigation shall be initiated when domestic producers expressly supporting the application account for less than 25 per cent of total production of the like product produced by the domestic industry.

Source: http://www.wto.org/e...19-adp_01_e.htm

 

Notice if less than 25% then no investigation.  Exactly as claimed in the post by julywebb. 

[odyd]

This is really interesting, good detective work guys, would not the same apply to Australia, with 25 people job sector?

[Makan]

It is 25% of production of the domestic sector and if the applicant is the only producer in Australia then it represents 100%. in India, maybe they have to find more producers that support this.

[odyd]

Are you saying that 25 people business can stop it? I doubt it.

[JulyWebb]

This is really interesting, good detective work guys, would not the same apply to Australia, with 25 people job sector?

I would think the WTO rules would apply. It seems like we have a lot of SW imitators, Haha. 

[JulyWebb]

Just read Members of the Press were not invited to this year's Deutsche Bank Conference One on One May 12'th and 13'th in case anyone was wondering why we haven't heard anything.

[abcdefgjoho]

and again the question is why all this noise in the solar space only. we have 100 industries were the same with china is true. t-shirts or shoes could be an example ;-)

 

i have no clue why this happens for solar. the only clue i have is that this is linked to potential national interest of national utility comps who simply fear wind and solar and therefor push for these things.

 

it is really strange i say. you would think that in the national shoe or t-shirt industry in india or australia more jobs will be lost.

 

maybe it is also about energy independence. nations being afraid of being dependend on china modules now. like being dependend on russian and arab oil and gas and now on china modules. energy independence could be a reason which might exist as well.

[eysteinh]

Abcd I think your right, energy security is a big big deal for nations. 

[Makan]

and again the question is why all this noise in the solar space only. we have 100 industries were the same with china is true. t-shirts or shoes could be an example ;-)
 
i have no clue why this happens for solar. the only clue i have is that this is linked to potential national interest of national utility comps who simply fear wind and solar and therefor push for these things.
 
it is really strange i say. you would think that in the national shoe or t-shirt industry in india or australia more jobs will be lost.
 
maybe it is also about energy independence. nations being afraid of being dependend on china modules now. like being dependend on russian and arab oil and gas and now on china modules. energy independence could be a reason which might exist as well.

Micro Chip industry is also heavily concentrated in Asian countries. And economies are quite dependant on PCs and Iphones etc. Nobody cares really.