213 replies to this topic

[odyd]

Now this becomes a PT, this is actually not bad

http://blogs.marketw...-pipeline-roth/

[abcdefgjoho]

not bad indeed but somehow funny:

"The Roth analysts, led by Philip Shen, kept their “buy” rating on the stock but lowered their price target on it to $35, from $50. They also lowered their full-year 2014 revenue to $2.7 billion, from $2.8 billion."

 

from $50 to $35 on target price and from 2.8 billion to 2.7 billion. seems simple math is again out-of-sync. analysts put market movements into their fundamental analysis again...

 

or as I said many times before -they are paid by their clients and not to meet eps numbers..

[Lepv123]

So far, JKS has released no bad news and has been punished severely. So now when it does release bad news on ER, it will get pounded into the teens?

 

ODYD, you mentioned that JKS will not release a good ER. What are you anticipating? Lower GM? Lower guidance? But didn't it already provide full year guidance?

[odyd]

I am not sure if we can assess what this analyst had done based on this release/article. Perhaps there was more detail than we can see.

I had a chance to look closer at the financials,

That inventory jump of $142M is strangely high. Project numbers are up by $11M. Prepaid expenses got $42M up, curious what that is. Liabilites increased in every line and so borrowings. Naturally for construction purposes.

CEDR breakdown was 54.8% Asia, 36% Americas, Europe 8.3% in deliveries, compared to revenues can offer an interesting view on pricing environment. Also maybe some countries are in a different bucket. CEDR delivered increase in GADP, slight of one cent, matching increase in ASP.

 

From the transcript Japan as volume was reported as 38%, CEDR recorded 39.9% when comparing to actual of 500MW. CEDR showed deliveries to the USA at 32%, versus 25% shipments recorded. The difference being loading up for the US projects (and having some lower GADP to the US).

Blend GM 14.9%, $0.67 on $0.57.

[pg6solar]

from $50 to $35 on target price and from 2.8 billion to 2.7 billion. seems simple math is again out-of-sync. analysts put market movements into their fundamental analysis again...

 

IMO, there's nothing wrong with that math. He simply assigned a lower PE due do CSIQ loosing (hopefully temporary) its "special" status. There will be three other CN4 "members" who will have higher 14Q1 EPS and GM when all are finished reporting Q1. Odyd was onto this for the last two months or so.  

[Bodhi]

Everyone is seemingly indicating todays ER was a 'miss' and guidance was 'mixed'.  What am I missing here?  Everything that happened from a company standpoint today has been expected for quite a while, months to be exact, and the guidance was reiterated.  Where is the doom and gloom? I just don't see why so many on this board have seemingly abandoned the once golden child.  Is the outlook really any different from a 1 yr timeline perspective than it was 6 months ago for this company?  My guess without sifting through all the various posts is most are just emotionaly abused by share price performance.  My best advice to EVERYone on this board, is to trade wisely, and be patient.  Hindsight tells everyone that they should have sold CSIQ 4 months ago, but greed made everyone think it would go $90 before the year was out.  I myself got pantsed on JKS as of late, but i'm learning every day about how to actually make money with these stocks.  GLTA, and i hope we all get a reprieve next week.

[Bodhi]

 but JKS in my view is not going to have a good quarter. 

Dydo, i know this may be CEDR thread convo, but what do you consider bad?  I think if they throw down a .40c EPS, that would be a great quarter.  The market will probably see it differently, but smashing the EPS of all rivals by around a factor of 2 to the next closest competitor seems great to me.  Do you doubt they will print a number close to that?

[sc_solar]

Revenue*18%, 30% of gross profit as net assuming no forex charge. $106 rev, greater than Q4, no forex everythign same, about $35M, or EPS.70, now I expect CB to kick in some gains

Thank you. I was trying to break out the projects from modules eps. I dont know why I didnt just do the basic calc. off rev. guidance n margins to get a base eps.

 

I was thinking margins would be slightly better Q2 with 1 larger project and possible penn energy project. Still, If  in fact we are around .70c it would be a 10x jump from Q1 which would make a "nice headline". Although, I am sure the press releases would find something negative to say about CSIQ. I understand we may not get the 4.00 + based on having to clear a rough estimate 3.23 over Q3 and Q4. They certainly have alot of projects back end loaded though, it should get very exciting leading into Q2 earnings...I hope they can execute and not have any or very little delays from the chart listing projects. I am not worried about today....this is still a long term growth story. I am still holding. 

[hellosolar]

Canadian Solar shares defended at JPMorgan. I saw this headline, who has more details on this, pls post.

[sunnysky]

For CSIQ, one disappointment is the low GM of 14.71%. compared with 19.49% in Q4. Taking away the 1% hit from the fire damage, that is still a reduction of 3.78%. This could have come from lower margins of both the module and the total solutions businesses but I think the main contributor is the former. The lower module margin could be caused by a few factors, including increased poly/wafer cost, higher cost at the Canadian plant, and likely also some under-utilization penalty due to lower shipment. I do have an estimate of module margin based on the backfitting of the revenue breakdown and a few assumptions- it's a bit under 13%.

 

The company has guided for a much better GM of between 17% and 19%. If they hit the upper end or even exceed it with a few large plant sales, I think the company is back to business as the leader of the pack.

[Lepv123]

Dydo, i know this may be CEDR thread convo, but what do you consider bad?  I think if they throw down a .40c EPS, that would be a great quarter.  The market will probably see it differently, but smashing the EPS of all rivals by around a factor of 2 to the next closest competitor seems great to me.  Do you doubt they will print a number close to that?

 

The fact that JKS reaffirmed guidance should mean that they will at least meet expectation right? I guess not necessarily so since CSIQ also reaffirmed but missed? 

[sunnysky]

CSIQ did not miss their own guidance, they had actually exceeded it. It's those lazy analysts who did not update their EPS estimate or simply did a lousy job.

 

 

Quarterly revenue came in at $466.3 million compared to $519.5 million last quarter, well above Canadian Solar's guidance for a range of $415 million to $430 million. Analysts, on average, were only expecting revenue of roughly $432 million. However, that only translated to earnings of $0.07 per diluted share, compared to analysts' estimates for earnings of $0.12 per share.

 

A few things have contributed to the low EPS:

 

(1) Large FX loss of $6.5M.   This is something no one could guide or estimate meaningfully.

(2) Large tax expense of $7.3M.  But I guess CSIQ should be able to foresee this? 

(3) Non-inclusion of the fair value change of CBs. This puzzles all of us.

 

In any case, if CSIQ meets their guidance again Q2 will be their best quarter in recent years.

[odyd]

Nobody missed anything. They said everything down to revenue level and the margin. I thought they would do worse and ride on fumes of the CB, . I knew that you put out full value in the US GAAP but for some reason I thought that you claim the loss in the same quarter. I even said I hope they earn the money as I thought they will have a negative earnings.

 

I was not smart enough to stay away from having a position in TSL, as I thought that the market is not dumb enough to kill possibly the best performing stock of the quarter. But was smart enough to lose only half of the losses if I was in JKS or CSIQ.

 

For last few days I wrote on this board many statements in regard what I consider  bad. I will summarize for the last time and ask to read back some of my posts. 

GADP , a drop in global pricing. only 60% of the volume I suspect to be global on dropped from Q4 GADP. Prices in China 3-4 4 cents lower on 40% of the shipments. FiT payments and possibly some of the retainage can held up the GM but I suspect 22% best but could be as low as 20%

I see $0.40 maybe, if the CB is the same as CSIQ, I am not an expert on this.

 

So what do you think the market will do with this? Will JKS be punished? sure they will. How much may be dip below $20.

 

My plan is like this right now. I doubt that CSIQ will do more that $3 this year. I think JKS can do $4.50 to $5. So JKS can do better but why lose another 10%?

TSL was the strongest stock with JA today. JA played its day, TSL has one ahead of them. If they do good, I think they will lift their price. I may sell the whole thing and sit on cash until JKS is done talking.

This seems to be an idea I have in my mind.

 

ps. I am giving a lot of CEDR hints, and I basically printed most of the CEDR report to public couple of days ago. With more industry customers coming along, it will be only appropriate to keep those details to those who paid for them. I have of course a motive to hint, I want to sell reports, but I will not put as much info anymore moving forward.

All those who bought CEDR deserve my full attention on the private forum.

[odyd]

(1) Large FX loss of $6.5M. This is something no one could guide or estimate meaningfully.

(2) Large tax expense of $7.3M. But I guess CSIQ should be able to foresee this?

(3) Non-inclusion of the fair value change of CBs. This puzzles all of us.

I am surprised how well they did on Forex, but their hedge against the US dollar was in reverse.  I did not expect large taxation on the a lot lower revenue, this was my 3 cents miss.

[Makan]

For CSIQ, one disappointment is the low GM of 14.71%. compared with 19.49% in Q4. Taking away the 1% hit from the fire damage, that is still a reduction of 3.78%. This could have come from lower margins of both the module and the total solutions businesses but I think the main contributor is the former. The lower module margin could be caused by a few factors, including increased poly/wafer cost, higher cost at the Canadian plant, and likely also some under-utilization penalty due to lower shipment. I do have an estimate of module margin based on the backfitting of the revenue breakdown and a few assumptions- it's a bit under 13%.
 
The company has guided for a much better GM of between 17% and 19%. If they hit the upper end or even exceed it with a few large plant sales, I think the company is back to business as the leader of the pack.

They said in the CC that they had to buy external cells which increased costs. I guess this effect is not included in the 1% of GM, but not sure. It was a weak quarter, no question and we knew that. Actually I am more bothered by that pipeline that did not increse further. There was also no mention of the early to mid stage pipeline. Anybody can tell, what is the probability that late stage projects, like the one in Japan, get cancelled before they go through the final permitting? Is this just a formal procedure or is there still some failure rate likely, but why do they bother put it in late stage pipeline?

[hellosolar]

I don't understand why you are going to sell TSL if they are doing good. The second half of the year should be looking much better.

[sunnysky]

I am surprised how well they did on Forex, but their hedge against the US dollar was in reverse.  I did not expect large taxation on the a lot lower revenue, this was my 3 cents miss.

 

I look at both items together for FX. Either they still have not figured out to hedge better or they made some speculation. Some companies do seem to consistently make some small gains. 

 

For tax, I think it's not just for the current quarter but has to do with what tax liability and credit they have accumulated in past operations? To me, this is just a wild card worse than FX in terms of estimation. Once the company consistently makes money for a while, I guess this would become more tractable.

[Lepv123]

ps. I am giving a lot of CEDR hints, and I basically printed most of the CEDR report to public couple of days ago. With more industry customers coming along, it will be only appropriate to keep those details to those who paid for them. I have of course a motive to hint, I want to sell reports, but I will not put as much info anymore moving forward.
All those who bought CEDR deserve my full attention on the private forum

 

Can we re-vote to have a discounted CEDR? i.e. $45/mo?

[Makan]

Nobody missed anything. They said everything down to revenue level and the margin. I thought they would do worse and ride on fumes of the CB, . I knew that you put out full value in the US GAAP but for some reason I thought that you claim the loss in the same quarter. I even said I hope they earn the money as I thought they will have a negative earnings.
 
I was not smart enough to stay away from having a position in TSL, as I thought that the market is not dumb enough to kill possibly the best performing stock of the quarter. But was smart enough to lose only half of the losses if I was in JKS or CSIQ.
 
For last few days I wrote on this board many statements in regard what I consider  bad. I will summarize for the last time and ask to read back some of my posts. 
GADP , a drop in global pricing. only 60% of the volume I suspect to be global on dropped from Q4 GADP. Prices in China 3-4 4 cents lower on 40% of the shipments. FiT payments and possibly some of the retainage can held up the GM but I suspect 22% best but could be as low as 20%
I see $0.40 maybe, if the CB is the same as CSIQ, I am not an expert on this.
 
So what do you think the market will do with this? Will JKS be punished? sure they will. How much may be dip below $20.
 
My plan is like this right now. I doubt that CSIQ will do more that $3 this year. I think JKS can do $4.50 to $5. So JKS can do better but why lose another 10%?
TSL was the strongest stock with JA today. JA played its day, TSL has one ahead of them. If they do good, I think they will lift their price. I may sell the whole thing and sit on cash until JKS is done talking.
This seems to be an idea I have in my mind.
 
ps. I am giving a lot of CEDR hints, and I basically printed most of the CEDR report to public couple of days ago. With more industry customers coming along, it will be only appropriate to keep those details to those who paid for them. I have of course a motive to hint, I want to sell reports, but I will not put as much info anymore moving forward.
All those who bought CEDR deserve my full attention on the private forum.

The last CEDR saved me about 60k so far on JKS. How many CEDR reports can I buy for this amount? Of course I know I cannot see it like this with JKS volatility and it depends if I can manage a proper reentry into it. JKS is a great company, but it is clear that what many seem to worry now is China pricing and people are used to 20%+ margins, moreover JKS is still the most popular solar stock on SA and most other forums. My mistake was that I didnt reduce my holding in CSIQ diligently enough as I thought they would deserve a premium over CNs, I still think they do but this view is now challenged a bit. For sure, it was right that I always kept to my diversification rules so that i reduced my holdings last year when they increased on market value. With 40000 shares that I owned in CSIQ at one point earlier last year, it would have been a pretty bad day yesterday... LOL. It still was a bad day, but at least my solar adventure can be seen as worthy for me no matter what happens and there are always other good stocks around as well.

[explo]

Everyone is seemingly indicating todays ER was a 'miss' and guidance was 'mixed'. What am I missing here? Everything that happened from a company standpoint today has been expected for quite a while, months to be exact, and the guidance was reiterated. Where is the doom and gloom? I just don't see why so many on this board have seemingly abandoned the once golden child. Is the outlook really any different from a 1 yr timeline perspective than it was 6 months ago for this company? My guess without sifting through all the various posts is most are just emotionaly abused by share price performance. My best advice to EVERYone on this board, is to trade wisely, and be patient. Hindsight tells everyone that they should have sold CSIQ 4 months ago, but greed made everyone think it would go $90 before the year was out. I myself got pantsed on JKS as of late, but i'm learning every day about how to actually make money with these stocks. GLTA, and i hope we all get a reprieve next week.

Bodhi, I think price moves are often about price and not about a company no longer being best. CSIQ was end of last year priced up to a level were it was seen as twice as good as TSL and JKS and 4 times as good as JASO. This was motivated by CSIQ being uniquely exposed to a golden segment of the value-chain. In Q1 the share of revenue of that golden segment grew over Q4 while GM nosedived at the same time as TSL and JASO (with pressured cell segment exposure instead of a helping golden segment which will provide help first in 2H) are expanding GM and printing much higher GM than golden segment helped CSIQ in Q1. At this point the market goes "hmm maybe 4 times better than JASO no longer applies, things were not static this time either, the puck is moving and so we need to adjust our course a bit for full action".

So although CSIQ is still best in my view the market overestimated their superiority and is correcting it now.