23 replies to this topic

[sunnysky]

As reported, projects will range from 1 MW to 40 MW in size. Among the 500 MW total, 300 MW has received the nod (may not be official approval) from the Japanese Ministry of Economy. Not entirely clear from the wording, but looks like some of these projects could be completed in H2 2014.  I think the 300 MW probably includes the 141 MW worth of projects announced earlier, which is being financed by a  $40 million loan from  Harvest North Star Capital.

 

http://solar.ofweek....0-28756004.html

[Pop2mollys]

As reported, projects will range from 1 MW to 40 MW in size. Among the 500 MW total, 300 MW has received the nod (may not be official approval) from the Japanese Ministry of Economy. Not entirely clear from the wording, but looks like some of these projects could be completed in H2 2014. I think the 300 MW probably includes the 141 MW worth of projects announced earlier, which is being financed by a $40 million loan from Harvest North Star Capital. http://solar.ofweek....0-28756004.html

Great find Sunny!

[joshchang]

Amazing... This will provide long term profitability visability... Will be interesting to see if csiq would choose to keep those projects. 300mw already acknowledged by METI. So we might see more late stage japan projects in pipeline after those 300mw moving into later approval stage. It also shows csiq's ability to continously obtaining projects in most mature, high margin and low risks markets. I do have a feeling csiq will be trading in its own league compared to other cn11 in 2014 and might be trading close to fslr and spwr's comparables if they continue executing their strategy. Thanks for sharing sunny.

[sunnysky]

Sun Edison has decided to keep more of their projects in house for retaining long term profits. I think CSIQ will do the same. They only need to sell enough to raise capital so they can continue snow-balling.

[joshchang]

Aso mentioned in the article, goldman sachs would be the biggest foreign investor for japan's downstream solar plant. Csiq would be the 2nd largest foreign investor. Japan looks like a gold mine to me otherwise it won't attract those big investment banks. Their FIT is very generous and IRR would be amazing. I would love to see more detail on their cost side though.

[odyd]

Those guys are amazing. miles ahead of the pack. Stock is so cheap at this level. SUNE is 3.4B 2.8 times size of CSIQ, and CSIQ has a larger pipeline and better GM, and it is making money. That is $66 just on SUNE fumes. 

[Pop2mollys]

Those guys are amazing. miles ahead of the pack. Stock is so cheap at this level. SUNE is 3.4B 2.8 times size of CSIQ, and CSIQ has a larger pipeline and better GM, and it is making money. That is $66 just on SUNE fumes.

Extremely exciting news. The potential in Japan could quite possibly be a game changer for CSIQ. They are the only Chinese Solar with access to projects in Japan. This is one big reason of many why I'm so damn bullish on CSIQ. It now looks like several Japan projects will be completed and might hit bottom line in 2014. Time to consider possibly raising EPS for 2014?

[odyd]

Time to consider possibly raising EPS for 2014?

My model has them at $5 on PE of 12, so around $60. I would be very happy with that. We are talking about $260M in net income. Another $1 is $51M. and stock can be easily playing with $70 per share. This one is a keeper.

[joshchang]

I would like them to keep those projects in japan. 38 to 40 jpy FiT... Low policy risk... We will see if they would change strategy a bit after maybe setting up yieldco.

[odyd]

I frankly do not want any new units unless shareholders have some benefit. Otherwise, it is parent, sub relationship and those suck for shareholders. 

[joshchang]

I frankly do not want any new units unless shareholders have some benefit. Otherwise, it is parent, sub relationship and those suck for shareholders.

It will make things complicated but i hope they would act on shareholder's interests. It could be a good strategy if they can get easier capital and get better valuation.

[Scsnospam]

Odyd, are you holding 50/50 of CSIQ and JKS?

[sunnysky]

This article is right on time, except the recent price movement. Cant imagine the sell-off to continue much longer.

 

http://www.bloomberg...-projects.html?

[Scsnospam]

Great article. Notice how they position CSIQ - "More than 41 percent of the Guelph, Ontario-based company’s third-quarter revenue came from developing solar farms, especially in Canada.." and "Most of Canadian Solar’s manufacturing facilities are in China, where it’s also building solar farms"

 

CSIQ is being positioned as a Canadian Sunpower, different from all other C11.

[explo]

Thanks again Sunnysky. I'm very excited about CSIQ's execution and clear leadership, but I have no good chart over it. Here's my dilemma. Market cap 1.5b. Enterprise value 2b. That's for example 3 times JASO and 2 times Jinko. My chart is not covering enough of 2014 outlook and beyond to see black on white in sheet that that price is motivated (it's more a gut feeling now). Clearly CSIQ should have a higher price than peers, but I need to know more exactly what that should be. My strategy depends on charting value and comparing with stock price, which means I cannot just by on leadership without and exact opion on if price is comparatively good or not when taking all into account at any given time. I feel like I would need some of the major charting undertaking done - like before by nano and Josh - to compare the value/price ratio to other opportunities like JASO, TSL and JKS or I would have to do it myself (unlikely I find time for this) or wait for 2014 guidance.

 

CSIQ like SOL was hesistant on China in Q1. Clearly that is not the case for CSIQ anymore since the recent China improvements. SOL is still hesitant based on its own financial situation. China demand is there. China banks no longer provides a place for the weak though.

[sc_solar]

My model has them at $5 on PE of 12, so around $60. I would be very happy with that. We are talking about $260M in net income. Another $1 is $51M. and stock can be easily playing with $70 per share. This one is a keeper.

 

I just wet myself..lol. I cant wait until we get into mid 2014. This has been an awful looking month (i myself am down 30% from highs...Sol bit me for almost 5% of that).  But in 6 months I think everyone will be raising glasses again!! As Josh says, one can feel more comfortable and not question Csiq long term visibility which is something wall street likes to see. As per the valuations, absolutely correct, lets hope within the next 2 Qs or so more of Wall Street will see it this was as well and they will get a more deserved valuation. Id be very happy with a $60-70 tinkering. Lets see what else they do between now and then, we may have to up that forecast ala sleepyhead  glta

[spiritcraft]

I wish that Nomuras estimates would be recognized by yahoo, TD etc.  Right not estimates are skewed down due to this.  Thier $42 PT is also not shown or figured in.  But, soon people will see the 2015 estimates hanging out there which currently ore in the mid $6 range.  2014 estimates will also be rising from the mid $2 which is the current consensus.  It is all going to come together along with a whole slew of investors who never considered PV.

 

CSIQ also has the Westernization thing going for it... 

[Jetmoney]

As reported, projects will range from 1 MW to 40 MW in size. Among the 500 MW total, 300 MW has received the nod (may not be official approval) from the Japanese Ministry of Economy. Not entirely clear from the wording, but looks like some of these projects could be completed in H2 2014.  I think the 300 MW probably includes the 141 MW worth of projects announced earlier, which is being financed by a  $40 million loan from  Harvest North Star Capital.

 

http://solar.ofweek....0-28756004.html

Will the recent hostility between Japan and China jeopardize future PV solar developements in Japan by CN solar companies?  Is there a risk there if this recent hostility become a real skirmish?

[Pop2mollys]

Will the recent hostility between Japan and China jeopardize future PV solar developements in Japan by CN solar companies? Is there a risk there if this recent hostility become a real skirmish?

[Pop2mollys]

Will the recent hostility between Japan and China jeopardize future PV solar developements in Japan by CN solar companies? Is there a risk there if this recent hostility become a real skirmish?

Not when your name is "Canadian" solar. Plus there is no other Chinese solar with any project pipeline there... Canadian solar is in Beast mode right now.