I don't understand why you are going to sell TSL if they are doing good. The second half of the year should be looking much better.
This is very good question, hellosolar. It works like this, at least in my head.
TSL has been doing very poorly and when stock does that I pay attention to CEDR to look if I see a reason for it. If I do not see bad things I get interested. First two months of the quarter I look at those patterns versus past. If data holds my interest frequently turns in holding shares. The twist to it is what else happens outside of CEDR.
I sold CSIQ long time ago, and traded for couple days on points of the rise, because I knew that power of this company is not module selling but plant selling. I really do not care what portion of module shipments that is, but if they plan to see 15% margin, you run for hills.
My forget pill was JKS. This is where CEDR was giving a lot bad vibes, it became clear to me that China content is big . I parted her at $27-$28 region on those vibes. My apologies if I cannot connect your id to a buyer, but I wrote a small book on my JKS worries in the premium forum.
I started buying HSOL to a point that I had so much shares I turned to worry how will I get out of the stock if my optimism turns to market nightmare. So sold it off chunk at the time. It must have been in the same time TSL dropped the volume of the guidance, huge market punishment was next, but they said they will get 18 to 20% GM. Looked back the CEDR particularly the last one from March, lets called it, TSL delivered the most ever I think in one quarter (I am doing again, hints from CEDR), and stock is literally at half price.
Finally, to answer your question, I say I could sell it. This is why. TSL needs to give me at least following
1. 19 to 20% GM in Q2
2. Growing plant situation in EU or elsewhere ( I should be looking into project assets
3. Clarity some form of confirmation on having 100 to 150MW of plants globally out of 500MW of plants
4. Confirmation of the robust guidance
5. They are putting a lot of money to improve efficiency/capacity (over $200M), I need to understand what happens as an outcome, instead for example investing in solar plants. CSIQ put $255M CB and share offering, while cash flow from TSL will do capacity upgrades and building greater efficiency, two times per watt of others. We know that you can make a lot more on solar plants why invest so much in the efficiency?
So this is a lot to ask.
To me CSIQ is overly attractive at this price now. They guided 19% on 570-590M, they will make $3 this year, I am very conservative on it. They printed $0.07 cents yesterday and will print $0.70 (or more if CB can add) in Q2.
This is the stock everyone should be buying in my view, unless that $22 is not a stopping point and they are pushing it down. I have a comfort watching it bleed but knowing their result is going to be 10 times better than Q1. Is TSL going to deliver 10 times better result in Q2, even if the hit all cylinders?
I saw people buying JKS while selling depressed CSIQ. In my personal experience you should never go to unknowns and stick with clarity. CSIQ was clear, they just had a bad quarter. If I had the stock, I would not sell it, anyways I do not know anything about trading.
I could be Henny Penny on JKS, but CEDR saved me few dollars. At the end of the day I still do not know what they can report. They are good those guys and Eystein is shrewd to know they can afford to sell in China at low prices and still make money, but is this market going to like JKS drop its earnings by half? The market did not beat too much on JASO for dropping it slightly from Q4, but it did not award her either, so this is why I sit this one on the bleachers.
Yet, is TSL going to do a $1 in Q2 potentially, like JKS can or $4 to $5 this year? No, they do not. TSL could be a queen of Q1, but it is hardly a queen of the year. She can be, but their solar plant business will have to be massively aggressive. This is why "I may" sell shares.
There is a good chance that TSL could lift market, but JKS could bring it down, so selling it and sitting it out, could be smart, but I am last to ask.
Thanks
